WKU Basketball: Matt’s Stats — How Good Is WKU?
Today’s Questions:
Today’s Questions:
How Good is WKU?
From a WKU perspective, where is this season headed?
There’s no question WKU Basketball has been impressive in the first half of the 2017–18 season. WKU stands at 12–5 and 4–0 in Conference USA with 14 regular season games left to play.
So, where does WKU stand?
1. How Good is WKU?
Well, including all metrics, WKU is one of the undisputed top 70 basketball teams in the country right now. The Hilltoppers are 40th in the RPI, 53rd in the KenPom, 57th in the BPI, and 68th according to Sagarin.
According to RPI, WKU has played the 30th toughest schedule in the country and is tied for 72nd in winning percentage. Prior to defeating ODU Saturday, Jay Bilas ranked WKU as the 59th best team in the country in his mid-season rankings. CBS Sports has WKU as one of its “Last Four In” in the NCAA Tournament as an 11 seed. WKU owns a 3–3 record against the RPI Top 100 and has split their two games against Top 50 competition.
WKU is winning games by ten points a game. Its main strengths are field goal percentage (12th) and three point percentage (17th). Interestingly, WKU is 17th in the country in fouls committed per game, and consequently, WKU has nearly made more free throws (241) than opponents have attempted (250).
Although WKU has no other significant standout statistics, they are in or near the top 100 in many statistical categories.
Individually, the talent is there. Of the Toppers’ ten players, eight were rated three stars or higher coming out of high school. Josh Anderson and Moustapha Diagne, who were recently cleared to play by the NCAA in consecutive weeks, were both four-star recruits. With those two pivotal pieces out, WKU was often down to seven available players when someone had to sit out to nurse an injury. Now that the Tops have a reasonable bench, they can be more aggressive.
WKU shares the wealth. WKU’s starters each average between 11 and 16 points per contest. The Hilltoppers find a way to assist on 51% of their baskets.
So how good is WKU?
The numbers in the various metrics, their stats, their balance, their talent, and their results all indicate a very good basketball team. But perhaps the most shocking detail to the conundrum of who WKU is lies in the fact that most of these accomplishments came with seven or eight players available each night. Now that the Hilltoppers are at full strength, they have beaten two of the best teams in the conference on the road (Marshall and ODU) with relative ease.
2. Where is this Season Headed?
So, WKU has had a nice start to the season and is in the at-large hunt. Great. Where do they go from here? Are they a fluke? Could it all be a string of luck and they’ll come back to Earth when they have to face some real competition?
Possibly.
In their first 16 Division I games, WKU faced teams with an average RPI of 135. This includes games against current #2 Villanova and #9 Purdue. In its final 14 games, WKU will face an average RPI of 192.
What does that mean? WKU will face an easier schedule in the last half of the season, but it won’t be drastically different. Because WKU drew the toughest possible C-USA schedule with the “travel partner” schedule model, WKU plays Marshall (travel partner), ODU and Charlotte, and MTSU and UAB twice. Charlotte is one of the worst teams in the country, but the other four teams are looking like the Conference USA favorites. They are going to help the strength of schedule.
With this scheduling draw, WKU could legitimately keep a strong strength of schedule despite being in the 17th strongest conference in America. Any wins against these certain teams could end up as resume building wins. In recent years, most C-USA losses were damning to at-large aspirations.
So where is this season heading for WKU?
By all indications, WKU is much improved from last year. In addition to being better from year to year, the Hilltoppers have set themselves apart from the rest of the league this season. WKU has three wins against the Top 100, and two are currently ranked higher than any other conference win. WKU has more highly ranked recruits on the roster than any other C-USA program.
Therefore, in the context of the 2017–18 season, WKU is the most proven thus far, and is the most talented. Surely MTSU and others would have something to say about that, but it is completely plausible to say WKU is the slight favorite at this point. The proof is in the performance.
Western Kentucky is listed as in the tournament as an at-large on a few sites, and I believe WKU is positioning itself to have options to get into the NCAA Tournament. WKU has a strong enough schedule (and will at the end of the year), and will possibly have ten games against Top 100 competition by the end of the Conference USA Tournament in March.
Conclusion:
According to the stats, as long as WKU continues on the same course it is currently setting, they will make the NCAA Tournament one way or another. Western is too good with too much talent and chemistry not to be an NCAA Tournament team. There are plenty of teams that could win C-USA, but WKU has already defeated three teams that have been considered contenders at some point this year. WKU has six more games against these contenders throughout the rest of the season.
One thing is certain: If WKU finds a way to finish January undefeated in Conference USA, they will be the firmly established favorite to win C-USA.