WKU Basketball: Matt’s Stats: It is not Time to Panic…Nevermind Belmont Happened
So I wrote the bulk of this article with the intention of lacing in a Belmont win or loss with a Pollyanna type of twist regardless of the…
So I wrote the bulk of this article with the intention of lacing in a Belmont win or loss with a Pollyanna type of twist regardless of the result, assuming WKU would play hard and maybe beat Belmont for once.
However, no one could have watched that effort and not immediately flashed back to the effort put forth by some late Ken McDonald/late Ray Harper type of teams. I mean, that was God awful, and you know what, Johnny Positive? You’re dang right that it’s a brand new season. WKU gets Conference USA next, and they should absolutely roll through it, even without Charles Bassey.
However, if they play as they did against Belmont, they won’t get to 20 wins. It’s funny now to look at how I viewed this team, and how this one performance completely and utterly crapped on most everyone’s good feeling toward this team.
Now there’s talk on Facebook about needing a new coach and all kinds of crazy stuff. First of all, put your pitchfork down and breathe. This team is 7–5. You would’ve been okay with that before the season started.
However, panic is kind of justified when your team literally doesn’t show up and doesn’t play hard at home in front of over 5,000 people when school is out. That’s a great crowd (and a good one that was engaged in the game) that goes home feeling like they just witnessed treachery.
Let’s take a look at my thoughts pre-Belmont, and I will then comment on where I am now…
What I Had Ready to Publish Before the Belmont Game
Listen, I know Charles Bassey just went down a couple of weeks ago, and it was clear from the reaction of just about everyone that the ceiling goes down for this Topper squad.
While that may be true, let’s use some stats to take a look at how this really could affect this team.
We now have two games (one exhibition) to go off of, and also we have the moments when Charles was not on the floor for the Tops.
Let’s not live in a fairy tale: Losing Charles Bassey completely changes the look of Western Kentucky Basketball. The Tops are immediately shorter, will have difficulty rebounding, and obviously just lost its best player.
However, with Charles Bassey, wasn’t the talk about how deep this team is, the options it has at starter, and the young talent available? Sure, Bassey, if healthy and bringing a team to the tournament on his back, is probably a first-round pick and a possible lottery pick.
Instead, he has a broken leg and may possibly be forced to be at WKU for his third year or go somewhere else to play before he lands in the NBA.
With that being said, let’s make a case for WKU being just fine without Charles Bassey.
Five Statistical Reasons Not to Panic
WKU Has Some Really Good Players, Even Without Bassey
I feel like this is something that should be obvious, but apparently we have amnesia about how good these other players on this roster are. Of course, you have Tay Hollingsworth, your current 34th all-time leading scorer at WKU as a junior. Yeah if you play out his career to his senior season and he keeps a decent pace, he could easily eclipse Courtney Lee and Jim McDaniels as all-time leading scorers at WKU.
Then you have Jared Savage, who can be maddening to watch, but regardless, he’s a 1,000 point-scorer over his time with WKU and Austin Peay. He’s also massively improved his rebounding and defensive presence, sitting third on the team in steals, blocks, and rebounds. Josh Anderson is a freak of an athlete, can guard all five positions, and has mammoth potential. Jordan Rawls provides a true point guard that is (when given opportunity) making a case as a starter in replacement of Cam Justice. Speaking of whom, Cam Justice, although massively inconsistent, has the ability to drop 20 on any given night. He’s certainly a legitimate three-point shooter.
Carson Williams has proven to be WKU’s most consistent player not named Charles Bassey, scoring at least eight points in all but two games. Only Jared Savage and Charles Bassey could claim the same statistic, while Williams also shows the explosion potential, with two games of 26 or more points and a 14 board performance at Rhode Island.
Matt Horton is a Very Good Back-up
Let’s get real here: Matt Horton is not Charles Bassey, nor will he ever be. However, the man produces when he gets to play. In 13 minutes of action in the exhibition against Kentucky Wesleyan, Horton produced 11 points on 80 percent shooting, making his three free throws, blocking a shot, pulling down four rebounds, and adding a steal. He was highly active in his short amount of playing time. WKU was +19 in his eleven minutes of action! Not too shabby.
In his 85 minutes over 17 games in two years on The Hill, Matt Horton averages five minutes per game, but still scores a point every four minutes on the court, grabs a rebound every three minutes, shoots 67 percent from the floor, and records a block every ten minutes or so. Let’s play that out a little further. First of all, none of this is including his 11 points in the exhibition last week (That would greatly skew the numbers in his favor, by the way).
If Matt Horton now gets 20 minutes per game and simply keeps the pace that he has had in official games, he would average five points, six rebounds, shooting the same 67 percent from the field, and averaged two blocks per game. Is that not a quality contributor? If Stansbury will trust this guy, he’s got legit size, can be a presence down low, and plays with excellent energy and takes pretty good care of the basketball.
Josh Anderson, Matt Horton, Jeremiah Gambrell, and Jordan Rawls Should all Get More Playing Time
Without question, each of these players deserves more playing time. Each has a different story, but Josh Anderson starts on any other team in Conference USA. So does Rawls, probably. Horton has just simply sat behind really good big men in his time at WKU. Gambrell, along with Rawls and Anderson, was a four-star prospect coming out of high school. These are highly talented players that now get to step in and fill a role. Most likely two of these guys (Rawls and Anderson) should see some starts moving forward. I wouldn’t discount Horton, either if he could produce 6–12 points fairly consistently.
One issue with Charles Bassey at center is he is so good that it’s very tempting to sacrifice other players’ playing time in order to play the star. However, perhaps Stansbury will be forced to trust his bench, something he has never done in his time at WKU. Now is probably the time. Keep those legs fresh.
Conference USA Sucks
This is very simple. The Tops have one more game against a Top 100 opponent in the non-conference. WKU has fared well, only losing four games, including an overtime loss Saturday on the road at Rhode Island without Bassey. WKU was picked to win unanimously, partly because Conference USA seems to be down this year. Throw in UTSA absolutely bombing out in addition to already lowered expectations, and C-USA is totally up for grabs if WKU is not the elite team it should be, even without Bassey.
Conference USA’s NET Rankings stands as follows: 85 (La Tech), 94 (WKU), 110, 114, 129, 155, 160, 163, 183, 237, 240, 252, 281, 291. Surprisingly, no teams are outside of 300, so what it ultimately means in Conference USA is 13th of 32 leagues in NET Ranking and 17th in RPI. This still means the conference is a decent mid-major, but the main thing to take away here is there is no other dominant force in the conference and WKU absolutely has the ability to step up and make it happen without Bassey.
There is only one other team near WKU in terms of quality early this season, and that is La Tech. Louisiana Tech has a recent history of utter meltdowns in early conference play, so call me in February, Bulldogs. Unfortunately, each team in Conference USA is good enough to put up a fight but not good enough to help a resume if you defeat them. It’s a dangerous place to be in, and Western Kentucky is in all likelihood going to need to win in March unless they reel off an undefeated season in conference. Then, the conversation could open back up for an at-large type of scenario. Ultimately, Conference USA’s individual teams are not that good, and WKU should still be the favorite despite losing its best player.
The Rhode Island Performance
Honestly, can we pump the brakes on expecting WKU to win every game? Even with Charles Bassey, would you really have been upset at losing on the road to a really good team playing while not playing well and taking them to overtime? That’s who Rhode Island is. They’re 83rd in the NET rankings and have impressive losses. If they could’ve pulled one of those off, they would be sitting as an at-large candidate right now. With the conference they play in (A-10), they could absolutely earn their way to an at-large later in the year. I would expect URI’s stock to rise marginally from where it sits right now. Who knows? They may get on a run and get way into the top 50 by year’s end.
Rhode Island is 6–0 at home this year. A down year in 2018–19, Rhode Island went 9–5 at home with an overall record of 18–15. That is a tough building to play in, and they have some legitimate talent. Western did not play that well against Rhode Island. They shot eight percent under their average, turned the ball over four more times than normal, and for some reason, Rick Stansbury only played six players for more than 6:12 of game time (Matt Horton and Jeremiah Gambrell both played about six minutes).
Despite not being at its best, ultimately WKU put itself in a position to win, and Stansbury showed a willingness to let his horses run. WKU played with a faster tempo, scoring in the 80s despite only shooting 42%. We can complain about certain decisions from Stansbury: Two players making 2/3 of the turnovers while playing over 40 minutes in an overtime game apiece (Savage and Hollingsworth), and Josh Anderson riding the bench at the end of regulation and overtime. I didn’t like that, either. However, what ultimately happened? WKU competed at a championship level against a really good team in their house without Charles Bassey. That is a dark horse to win a better conference (10th in Conference NET) that will likely send three or four teams to the NCAA Tournament (eight teams in the top 100).
Should we really complain about a loss like that? The Tops played hard and gave themselves a chance to win. Be happy.
Overall
Without question, 2019–20 is now in doubt. However, what pieces are left? a legitimate 7–9 man rotation with lots of talent. Several Kentucky Mr. Basketballs. All-Conference candidates. An ability to shoot inside and out. An ability to drive to the bucket. Athleticism. Seniors with experience and something to prove. A hunger to finally get to the tournament however necessary.
All of those are sitting on this roster, waiting to come to fruition. It is amazing that we can have a conversation about losing the best player and still being a likely winner of a conference title. It’s completely possible, and WKU should still be the favorite.
So first of all, let’s not lower our expectations. WKU should make the tournament. Period. Find a way. WKU should dominate Conference USA. Could we understand a few losses because of the loss of Bassey? Yes. Other than that, run through C-USA like a buzz saw. The Tops have not made the NCAA Tournament since 2013, people.
It’s time to get this team there, Coach. It’s time to help this team get there, fans. It’s time to keep the bar high, media.
This team is fully capable, and therefore, as a fan, let the stats tell the story. WKU is going to be just fine if it can get past silly decisions and game mismanagement. That is not just on coaching, but that’s a part of it. It’s on the players to keep playing, as well. And sure, there always has to be a luck quotient to it. Let’s be fair and reasonable.
But if this team will turn on and stay on and get hungry and angry and motivated like it should be, this team should still run straight through the conference and threaten a run in the NCAA Tournament. The only thing stopping this team is itself. There’s a lot of work to be done in the meantime, though.
What I have to Say After Belmont
Yeah, what the heck just happened? We are now forced to admit that something just happened that we haven’t seen from a Rick Stansbury team since 2016–17. WKU showed up to Diddle Arena and it didn’t even feel like they cared. I’m sure they did, but if anyone can explain why it was that flat, I’ll listen. I’ll hear you out.
But not one person left that game blown away with the hustle, fire, and conviction of the Tops. Literally, every Stansbury era issue popped up in this game: Holding the ball and cranking 3’s, waiting 18 seconds to set up a set play, not playing players that deserve more playing time, overplaying players on massive cold shooting streaks, lapses in judgment by experienced players, dumb shots, not enough depth, and players not doing fundamental things, like playing hard and boxing out.
That was bad, but I’m also not at the top of the football stadium about to jump off. This was one game. This team is three games removed from discovering Charles Bassey is out and Kenny Cooper is riding the bench until next year. That’s a huge adjustment to make when you plan on a drastically different starting lineup all year and not one but two huge roadblocks come up.
WKU is still right there in it for a Conference USA title. Heck, it’s a new season, to steal an old cliche. Is it pretty clear they should not be the unanimous favorite anymore? Yes, that is now clear. No way can you say that this team deserves to be utterly feared in the conference. However, Western is plenty talented to run the frickin’ table. Look at the talent on this team (see above)! There is a lot of it, and some of it is seemingly being squandered.
If this team has the attitude of feeling snake-bitten because of Bassey going down, this thing is going to unravel quickly. If the Tops would just have some senior and upperclassmen leadership that will say, “You know what? Screw this mediocrity. Screw feeling sorry for ourselves. Screw being average. We’re good enough to do this thing regardless of our circumstances. I will not be denied.” Whatever. Somebody in that locker room needs to light a fire and keep it lit.
When I was with football, Bobby Petrino was tearing the locker room apart, to be honest. There was a lot of tension within staff, players, and coaches. Everybody blamed everybody. It was awful. The players got together and said, “You know what? Screw the problems. We have to trust these coaches and buy-in or we won’t win anyway. The only thing we can control is our effort and individual execution.” I’m paraphrasing, but that team got together and won its last five games to finish 8–4 after a 3–4 start. Western Basketball is in better shape than that team, and I guarantee Rick Stansbury is not a raging lunatic, either.
But that started with the players deciding to completely and utterly buy-in. There have been a few times that we saw this Topper squad truly bought in. Other times this season, WKU has skirted by. It’s time to quit with these up and down behaviors and performances and get serious about winning championships.
This season could now completely come off the rails, or it could end up being magical. It’s always up to the players. Very rarely is the coach completely sabotaging the team with his horrendous abilities so much that the players can’t overcome whatever issues. Rick Stansbury is not a god-awful basketball coach, but he’s just not that good, either. He’s a great recruiter, and you’re insane if you disagree. But he’s not Phil Jackson on the clipboard.
If I’m in that locker room, my response is, “So what?” The inner issues don’t matter as much if everybody works to overcome it. If everybody starts pulling in the right direction with this WKU Basketball team, I have full confidence they would finally kick in the door and win Conference USA and go dancing.
That’s where I stand. They still can do it, but Belmont showed everybody, including C-USA (as we head straight into conference play) unfortunately, that WKU is not focused on the task at hand and is definitely not going to even have a decent season if it doesn’t come together and play well as a unit.