WKU Basketball: Matt’s Stats — Why Are the Hilltoppers So Inconsistent?
One may be inclined to think Western Kentucky winning its last two men’s basketball games dampens this debate, but frankly, it doesn’t. WKU…
One may be inclined to think Western Kentucky winning its last two men’s basketball games dampens this debate, but frankly, it doesn’t. WKU is so inconsistent this season and wildly unpredictable. For example, WKU beats St. Mary’s and Wisconsin (and Charlotte), but then loses to three Conference USA teams in a row. Western beats FAU after starting out down 12, and then Western exacts revenge on Marshall Monday night. If you think the ups and downs are over for WKU basketball, check recent history, folks.
Anyone not living under a Conference USA men’s basketball rock knows Western Kentucky was the prohibitive favorite coming into the 2018–19. Everyone also knows WKU has massively disappointed, currently holding a .500-ish record, but astonishingly holding four quality wins and a recent win against Marshall, as well.
Matt’s Stats asks a question and answers it with pure numbers. This is not me trying to paint a pretty picture. This is letting the numbers paint it for you.
In this episode of Matt’s Stats, we’re going to try to explain first, what’s going on with the Tops? Second, why can’t they be consistent?
First…What Has Happened?
WKU (10–9, 3–3 C-USA) has won or lost no more than three games in a row so far in 2018–19. WKU started off with a nine-point halftime lead against a Top 25 Washington team (who is now 14–4) in Seattle, only to lose by 27 in the second half (more to come on blowing leads). This was one of the few games WKU was truly outclassed.
Then came three wins in a row against UT-Martin (now 5–12), Valparaiso (now 12–7), and #13, at the time, West Virginia (now 9–9). WKU fans began to salivate at this point, dreaming of the possibilities of a Top 25 team and a single digit seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Western dropped their final game in Charleston to UCF (now 14–3) after the WVU win, but Topper fans’ spirits weren’t to be dampened. WKU was 3–2 with good wins and two excusable losses and receiving votes in the polls.
Then begins the weirdness. After showing the world what the Tops are about (supposedly), WKU goes to Larry Bird’s alma mater, Indiana State (now 10–8), and absolutely lays an egg. Western got out-hustled, out-defended, and plain outplayed against the Sycamores. Ehh that’s one bad game, right? Surely they’ll snap out of it. Life on the road is tough. 3–3.
And they did, against a Tennessee State (now 5–13) squad with some talent but little chemistry (sounds familiar), Western wins by double digits in an absolute free throw fest, nearly setting a program record with 36 made free throws. 4–3.
Western then goes on the road to Missouri State (now 8–11), a team that was good last year but is destined for mediocrity this season. However, Missouri State keeps it close against Western in the first half, and in one of the most bizarre performances, shoots 75% in the second, while WKU shoots over 61% in a losing second half effort. 4–4.
Ok, maybe this team is a fluke. Enter Arkansas. The Razorbacks (now 10–7) never loses at home. It’s an incredibly tough place to play, and Arkansas has two years worth of wins piled up at home since losing in Fayetteville. In a close affair in which neither team had more than a nine point lead, Western catches everybody’s attention again and shocks Arkansas in Bud Walton Arena. 5–4.
Who is this frickin’ team?!? That was awesome for the Tops, but seriously when are they going to put it together? Try to this day, not yet. WKU then welcomed Troy (now 10–8) to Diddle. Now we’re cooking, right? Nope. Egg. Troy led by as many as 17 with 6:29 left as the Tops mount a vicious comeback, only to screw it up at the end and lose. 5–5.
Western then faced a really good Belmont team (now 13–4) on the road. Belmont comes out blitzing the Tops after a back-and-forth battle early. Belmont took a 19 point lead, and once again, WKU waits until it is on its back to fight back to nearly steal one on the road. WKU has its chances and can’t get it done. 5–6.
St. Mary’s (now 13–7) comes to Diddle Arena, and the Tops need to have a good performance to try to salvage a fairly disappointing non-conference. Well, against all odds, WKU wins despite getting outrebounded, shooting 14 less shots, getting beaten at the line and behind the arc, and allowing two Gaels to score 26 or more points. 6–6.
Enter Wisconsin (now 12–6) to Bowling Green. Western fans are pissed about what happened last year, and Diddle is as good as it’s been since the renovation in the early 2000s. In poetic justice, WKU holds Wisconsin to exactly one point less than the one point debacle from a year ago in Madison. This time, WKU scored a little more than 76, beating Wisconsin in an incredible basketball game between two teams playing good basketball. 7–6.
At this point, I thought WKU was turning the corner, and this team was becoming the team it was anticipated to be. So did everyone else. No further proof to the contrary is provided at Charlotte (now 5–12), with the Toppers winning by 18 in rare ho-hum fashion. 8–6.
WKU has all the momentum in the world, winning three in a row and playing well. The Tops then head to Old Dominion (now 15–5), and opens the game with a 21–0. Well, check that one off the list! This game is won…Wrong! WKU melts away that lead down to seven at halftime. To make it worse, they don’t even surrender the lead for several more minutes into the second half. Then things happened, WKU surrenders the lead, fights back, has multiple chances to tie or take the lead, and can’t convert. Disaster. WKU just got outscored 69–45 after being up 21–0. 8–7.
WKU has a whole week off to recover, and the Tops have Marshall (now 12–7) in Huntington in the lone game of the week for either team. Once again, Western gets up 15 in the first, but melts away part of the lead in the first. Of course Marshall is explosive, but surely not twice in a row! WKU fights, but gives up the lead in the final 20 seconds and can’t do anything to take back the lead. Unacceptable. 8–8.
Surely the Florida schools are a chance to get back on track. Alas, they’re actually decent this year. Now in Diddle, Western comes out lethargic in front of a flat crowd and slowly builds a lead, albeit in the most excruciating way possible. FIU (now 12–7) does seem outclassed, but WKU allows them to hang around. FIU finally makes free throws, and after leading by 16 with 11:29 left, WKU blows it again, allowing FIU to take the lead in the final ten seconds of the game. Indescribable agony. 8–9.
Saturday afternoon, FAU (now 11–8) gets out to a 12 point lead before WKU roared back to tie it right after halftime. Once Western gets back to that point, the two teams traded buckets, but eventually WKU took slight control. But the energy was dead, and Western seemed to just simply get away with one, again making boneheaded plays in the final minutes that ended up working out this time. Still not a great feeling. Maybe Western just needs to get down by double digits each game? That’s literally the post game conversation. Sad. 9–9.
Western gets Marshall (now 12–7) on short rest at home for some revenge. In a true budding rivalry, the Tops dominate defensively (say what?!?) and hold Marshall to their lowest point total of the season. C.J. Burks and Jon Henderson combine for 30 points on 32 shots. Taveion Hollingsworth barely gets his double digit points, and Josh Anderson (25 points, five steals) lights the Herd up in the second half. In a back-and-forth slugfest, WKU gets it done in impressive, albeit uncharacteristic, fashion. 10–9.
Just look at that jumbled mess. How in the sweet Lord Jehovah’s name are you supposed to interpret this season? If someone can explain it, I’ll patiently wait. No one? Yeah me neither. It’s an utter mystery.
So we’ve got you up to date on what has happened so far this season. Statistically, what has happened for each of the players that have seen action most of the season?
The Players
Charles Bassey
The freshman five star is sensational, but does seem to have some lapses in effort and focus. He also has some minor health issues with his knees. That being said, Bassey averages 14.2 points, 9.4 rebounds, and shoots 63% from the floor, 53% from three, and hits 74% of his free throws. Oh and throw in 2.4 blocks a game. He’s pretty good.
Perhaps one stat that may stand out to explain Bassey is his dominance in “big” games. In games on national TV, Charles Bassey scores 16.3 points and snags 10.7 off the glass. S/O to my Dad for pointing this out to me. His theory is Western gets up for TV games but does nothing when not in the spotlight. Perhaps this is statistically plausible. Psst! Charles, they’re ALL important! Scouts care about your film against Kentucky Wesleyan, too!
Taveion Hollingsworth
Well, Tay has been quite amazing thus far in 2018–19, averaging 15.8 points, shooting well, making big buckets, and is solid in every statistical category. He does play 37 minutes a game (most on the team), and he does have some negative moments that stand out. For example, he has had the ball four times this season before the half and has not even gotten a shot off. That is momentum potential lost going into the half.
When Hollingsworth shoots less than 50%, WKU is 5–7 on the year. Western is 5–2 when he shoots over that. This seems to be a telling stat. It stands to reason that WKU is terrible without its best player, but it is more conclusive that Western’s best player must be efficient. Taveion is extremely pertinent to WKU’s success. For example, in Monday’s Marshall game, Tay was the difference in the second half. Despite a poor shooting night, he scored all of his ten points in the second half in a win by nine.
Jared Savage
Savage has been the target of disdain from many Western fans on message boards, but perhaps for good reason. Savage plays the second most on the team behind Hollingsworth, yet he shoots the worst overall percentage of anyone who has played in more than 13 games. He is average in many categories, but his main contribution is in free throw shooting and three point shooting. He has also had several games that were just plain hideous.
Western is 4–6 in games Savage shoots less than 40% from three. WKU is 5–6 when Savage plays over 36 minutes per game. Basically, if Savage plays a lot and is missing everything, the Tops are in trouble. There is a different feel to the Topper offense when Jared Savage is on. Savage definitely affects offensive output, but his inconsistency mixed with his massive numbers of minutes affects how consistent WKU can be. When one player can shoot 90% or 10% and gobbles up 18%+ of your team minutes, how can you expect consistency?
Tolu Smith
Tolu is an interesting case, because he is a role player seeing less than ten minutes per game, but he has played in every game. He shoots 57% from the floor, but only 50% from the foul line. WKU is 4–5 in games Tolu sees less than 10 minutes, meaning when he does see decent playing time, WKU is 6–4. Perhaps a man shooting 57% should see the floor more than 10 minutes a game.
Coach Stansbury made an interesting comment in the post-game interviews Monday against Marshall: “We need to get Tolu going.” Coach, perhaps if you play him more than five minutes, he might possibly be able to catch a rhythm.
Lamonte Bearden
Bearden is interesting, because he didn’t play the first part of the season because of academic issues. There is not really enough data to allow for conclusions to be drawn from Monte’s time this season, but in the seven games he has played in, WKU is 3–5. Again, this is not conclusive, but without question, Lamonte has not looked like himself since getting he has been eligible, starting with the game against Troy. Without question, a good Lamonte Bearden could take WKU from average to pretty good. Spectacular Monte could make WKU electric.
He scored five points Monday, but threw in five rebounds and three assists, spurning WKU’s offense and being serviceable at point guard in crucial moments.
Jake Ohmer
Jake has seen limited playing time, but in the four games he has hit a three, WKU won the game. Without question, WKU could afford an effective Jake Ohmer. There’s something about a tiny Kentucky boy getting out there and going up for a rebound in the paint, banging home a three, or blocking an elite Power 5 basketball player in the heat of battle that gets the juices flowing for everyone in red. Well, not Brad Davison.
Matt Horton
Although seeing limited minutes, WKU is 4–2 in games Matt Horton plays. Horton has dealt with a foot issue, and is also just a big body on a team with a bunch of big bodies and just happens to fall out of the rotation. However, he gives solid minutes to help the team when he gets the chance.
Dalano Banton
The 6'8" point guard has played in every game and started half of them. He’s incredibly raw and inefficient on most nights, but he also leads the team in assists and nearly recorded a triple-double against Wisconsin. Banton is so inconsistent at this point that it’s difficult to make sense of any of his stats. Early in the season, he barely played, but even adding minutes did not affect much in terms of his impact on outcomes. However, once again, if you have an inconsistent semi-starting point guard, how can you expect consistency?
Josh Anderson
Josh Anderson is such a unique player, and when he is being aggressive and taking it to the rack, it’s something to behold. WKU is 7–3 when Josh Anderson takes three or more free throws. Which three games did they lose? The ones in which they had 15+ point leads and blew it. If WKU had not blown three straight games up 15 or more, we could make an even more convincing argument. Think about that! WKU should be 10–0 when Joshua dad gum Anderson gets to the rack.
Anderson makes Western Kentucky a different team when he is aggressive. He has a different gear that no one else has, and he can get everyone else going like no one else, simply because of the massive energy he can bring to the court with a thunderous dunk or a drive by or through an opponent. This is one of the most conclusive stats: When Josh Anderson is being aggressive, or is allowed to be aggressive in the case of foul trouble, the Tops are different.
Marek Nelson
Marek Nelson doesn’t seem to make a numerical impact, but certainly his presence is generally felt defensively if he’s allowed to get in a rhythm. In the six games Nelson saw 15 or more minutes of action, WKU was 4–2. In the games he played but did not see the court significantly, the Tops went 2–5. With news that Nelson may be out for the season with a bad back, this is an extremely unfortunate loss for the Tops, regardless of the length of time he is gone. Hopefully Marek can get back going and make an impact this year, if possible.
Important Team Facts
As a team, WKU consistently struggles with turnovers. By consistently, I mean every game (prior to Monday against Marshall); the Tops commit between 11 and 18 turnovers. Against Marshall, the Tops had a season high 21, an anomaly. This is 85% related to consistent point guard play and about 15% youth.
In Western’s wins, the Tops commit 14 turnovers per game. In losses, the Tops turn it over 15.4 times per game. This is a slight difference, but a big one. Western is 2–7 when committing 15 or more turnovers.
The effect of turnovers shows up in opportunities. WKU’s opponents shoot way less free throws and a few more shots per game, yet WKU scores only one more point per game than their opponents.
Turnovers are constricting the Tops and, when they are not incredibly efficient shooting the ball, they are susceptible.
Consequently, WKU’s shooting percentage often determines success. In WKU’s losses, Big Red shoots 43.6% from the field. In wins, WKU shoots 48.3%.
Long story short, WKU is forced to outshoot its opponents every night because of its inability to take care of the basketball.
Conclusions
I did not see most of these going this way on a large scale, but here’s what we must conclude from the numbers:
This team is unquestionably inconsistent and inexperienced. Sometimes certain makeups of rosters simply make these crazy things happen, like beating Wisconsin but losing to Missouri State and Troy. There is no question the makeup of this team makes it difficult to be consistent.
WKU is fundamentally just inconsistent from top to bottom. Everyone has played a factor in a loss or two, so the main ingredient for change is simply consistency, focus, and more effort to do so.
WKU is 5–2 in national TV games (not including beIN, because you SUCK!). On other platforms, WKU is 5–9. That is truly insane.
Turnovers are killing Western, and even though turnovers don’t mean everything, they certainly make life difficult.
Charles Bassey is unquestionably important, despite the fact that when he has a “bad” game, he doesn’t affect the outcome. He still affects every game and has had very few games when he was not one of the best three players on either team in terms of production every night. As mentioned, he ups his game on national TV.
WKU is playing the wrong players. I anticipated that maybe Jared Savage is getting too many minutes for his rate of production, but I did not expect to see much more than that.
To the previous point, Tolu Smith, Matt Horton and Marek Nelson (now injured) have big bodies and need to play more. WKU plays a ton of four-guard concepts, but WKU’s hidden strength currently rotates in for a few minutes a game to spell Bassey, Savage and Anderson. Perhaps Moustapha Diagne could come in and stretch the floor for a few minutes. Mou played three minutes against Marshall, grabbing two rebounds in three minutes and missing a wide open three.
Horton and Smith have been really good, shooting a combined 28-for-47 from the field and have drawn 42 foul shots in a total of about 11.4 minutes per game (Smith is 9.4 minutes of that). Tolu is especially effective in the post. Both Horton and Smith are a presence on the defensive end and clean up the boards when they’re in the game. The stats bear these facts out; they’re rim protectors and are match-up problems in the post and on the glass.
Marek Nelson is a 6'7" body full of intangibles. Marek may not show up on the stat sheet, but anyone who watches the game astutely would notice Marek doing things no one else does: Diving on the floor, playing great defense, creating problems for opposing offenses, and frankly, being a pest on both ends. Who else does that in combination with athleticism on this team? I can’t think of anyone exactly like that. The stats show that WKU needs him. He will be sorely missed while he is out.
Jake Ohmer could be a difference maker if given the chance. He has tendencies of taking care of the basketball, making good decisions, and making a few threes. Perhaps Jake could see some action in hopes of catching fire. However, he is a liability in an up-tempo game. Jake slows the game down when in there.
The guys mentioned above need to replace minutes from Taveion Hollingsworth and Jared Savage. Bassey could afford to give away a couple of minutes, as well if need be to keep him healthy.
There is absolutely no reason for Jared Savage to have 36+ minutes per game. The stats bear that out. He is probably too tired from playing too long, he is a liability on defense and he is not consistent enough to warrant this much playing time. However, he is extremely important and a huge weapon for WKU. No one on the team shoots as pure as he does in combination with any sort of height. Savage is a unique weapon if wielded properly. If Savage is not on, someone else can do the same thing. Give him 20 minutes if he’s cold, and give him 36 if he’s hot. He should not average more than 30 minutes a game.
Hollingsworth is a great player, but playing him 36 minutes a game has to be taxing. He could take five more minutes off a game, and Stansbury could put in a bigger lineup. With Taveion being only 6'2", he does minimize rebounding ability, as well as makes certain types of defense less effective. Big, long packages could be set up if the bigger guys on the team were allowed to play more.
Anderson is unquestionably unique, and the fact that Josh has such an impact when he penetrates just shows how special he is. There are very few players in the country that can do exactly what Josh can do. Again, WKU is 7–3 when he draws multiple trips to the free throw line.
So far, Bearden has been a liability, but as he gets in the groove later in the season, he may have the most potential to affect outcomes with his ability to run an offense and provide another offensive weapon. See the Marshall win. How many possessions had better flow with Monte in there? Plenty.
Banton will be a stud, but if he could develop any level of consistency in his game this year, he would immediately become one of the greatest freshman in WKU history. A huge key will be if he can figure out how to handle pressure. Dalano is currently dealing with a constant backcourt pressure, and he has struggled to even keep his dribble at times.
The Game Plan
If you asked me how to fix this mess, this is what I would do:
Start Bearden, Hollingsworth, Savage at the wing, Anderson at the four, and Bassey.
Run a six man forward rotation between Bassey (>30 minutes), Josh (>30), Tolu (20), Horton (<10), and Savage (30). Sprinkle in Diagne when foul trouble necessitates, and adjust according to the flow of the game.
Have Bearden and Hollingsworth play around 25–35 minutes, with Banton coming in to spell Bearden and/or Tay. Have Ohmer coming in for a few minutes to test the waters and see if he might score a bucket or two.
Work on Taveion and Savage being more efficient offensively. Numbers show both would help the team tremendously by being more efficient, especially if they’re going to play the most minutes.
Get Lamonte fully in shape, and turn him loose. You may have some silly things happen, but magic happens when Monte gets going.
Groom Banton for the future, but allow him to play an important role this year, as well. Minimize his minutes, and teams will not focus on causing him problems as much. They’ll forget about him, and he will be allowed to be himself more.
Tell Josh to be aggressive offensively and more conservative defensively. Foul trouble keeps him off the court too often.
Play at least 15 minutes with two true big men in the middle (Tolu, Horton, Bassey).
Give the ball to Lamonte and have him distribute the ball late in the game. Have Josh and Bassey play a role in most late game situations. If Banton is the point guard, let Josh be the one to either take the shot or find someone else.
Taveion can play a role in last second situations, but should not be responsible for initiating the play until he can learn how to handle the clock. Let him shoot it and be the great, creative offensive player he is, but he must be aware of the time.
Work with Charles on understanding when he must lay off of going for a rebound. Too many times, he has created foul trouble with over-the-back calls. He did again against Marshall. This is a silly tendency that costs him one or two fouls per game, and sometimes costs WKU points they would never give up if he would be smarter.
Press when smaller (without Jake); pound inside when big. Trap when Anderson and Bassey are on the floor, because they can handle running. Run a half-court man-to-man when Ohmer is on the floor.
Stop lobbing the ball to Bassey or someone else when running full speed down the court. That is an incredibly difficult pass and has to be done carefully. You’re asking for an overthrow, underthrow, or travel. This happened again against Marshall.
Make it a general goal to play more players. With the depth on this team, there is no reason nine or ten can’t see the court each game. They will be fresher and more prepared come tournament time.
Play with an insatiable appetite. Clearly, Western is not as good as it has thought it is. Yes there is talent, but talent has to play hard or it loses games it shouldn’t.
Why is WKU inconsistent?
It’s so difficult to point at one thing. That’s the point of this. Even after scalping through statistics, there is no conclusive evidence. There are very few statistics to point to why WKU wins or loses. Look through the stats for yourself. Is there one factor you can find that determines outcomes? I looked through every game’s box score and overall statistics and can’t find one single trend to explain it. The most conclusive is Josh Anderson’s free throws and Taveion’s shooting. Perhaps turnovers are important, but that’s obvious. Taking care of the ball is paramount, and WKU is very average in this endeavor.
Here’s what I think: WKU is inconsistent, just because WKU is inconsistent. You have a concoction of laid-back talent that creates a tendency to be average. Let me be clear: Each individual player is not average. You have Power 5 talent and size on this team. But you also have a mixture of personalities that are yet to jell into something cohesive, and certainly not special. Not yet.
It’s there on the table for the Tops, but somebody in that locker room simply has to buck up and become a leader. Without question, WKU lacks leadership. The only explanation for inconsistency on a grand scale is a lack of direction. Somebody has to have fire in the gut, and when things get tough, those people need to be the ones to keep stirring the pot.
When leads start melting, who has the wherewithal to realize it and do something about it? Who keeps them going when they battle back from down double digits and the opponent nails a huge three on the road? Who dives on the floor?
WKU is bitten by the bug of intangibles. Why can’t we point to any one thing wrong with the Tops? Because of the intangible minutiae that may not seem that important to you, me, or even them. It affects everything, though. When WKU blows a lead, that impact is not always felt on the stat sheet.
When two people dive on the floor, saving a ball against Marshall, the crowd goes wild, but it counts as a rebound for the first person who dove out of bounds. When your leader hits his first basket, that’s important, but just counts as one basket. When you don’t box out on a free throw and the offense gets the ball and puts it back, that looks like a missed free throw, a rebound, and a basket on the stat sheet. That’s really a stolen possession for the offense. Those little things are killing the Tops.
Intangibles.
Can WKU climb out of mediocrity? Without question. However, it’s going to come from a complete and utter change in tendency, and that’s extremely difficult to do. Win the intangibles and limit silly mistakes, and WKU becomes the team it should be.