WKU Basketball: Pod Wars — Bonus Play Possibilities Ahead of the Final Week of Scheduled Games
In the off-season, Conference USA proposed an innovative scheduling model for men’s basketball. The premise behind this new idea is to…
In the off-season, Conference USA proposed an innovative scheduling model for men’s basketball. The premise behind this new idea is to allow the better teams to play quality teams in an effort to allow more programs to make postseason tournaments. That actually makes sense, but with how much the conference that cannibalized itself, it may make absolutely no difference this season.
Laid out here, Conference USA explains the basics of the pod system and how each team will be seeded as a result.
What to know about the the new pod system (From C-USA article linked above):
Within the new format, the 14 programs will play in round robin format and play their travel partner twice within the first seven weeks of the conference season.
After seven weeks, teams will be placed in one of three pods based on Conference USA standings through the first 14 games.
The teams will be divided into two groups of five (1–5 and 6–10) and a group of four (11–14). During the final three weeks, teams will play within their respective grouping for the last four games of conference play.
Home and away games within the groups will be determined by a preset formula. Each team will have two home and two away games.
Once all 18 games have been completed, the top 12 teams based on final league standings will be seeded in the C-USA tournament.
Teams will be guaranteed seeding within their group.
For example, if a program lands in the second group (6–10), it will seed no higher than six and no lower than ten, regardless of wins and losses after placement in that group.
Conference USA Tournament seeding (and pod system arrangement) is determined in order as follows:
Conference Win/Loss Record
Head-to-head
Winning percentage against each conference opponent in descending order according to the final standings. For example, if the top two seeds split their games, the conference then looks at both teams’ records against the third seed, then fourth, fifth, etc. until a difference in winning percentage is found.
Who’s Going Where?
Old Dominion (20–6, 10–3 C-USA) has already clinched at least the second seed. With tiebreakers against both WKU and North Texas, Old Dominion‘s only threat is UTSA. The Roadrunners could clinch the top spot in the top pod by winning out at Southern Miss and at La Tech. The bottom line is UTSA defeated Old Dominion, so if there is a tie, UTSA would hop over ODU.
UTSA (15–10, 9–3 C-USA) is one of the most variable of the top five current seeds. They could slot in anywhere from first to fifth, depending on their results. They lack a tiebreaker with WKU, and need to earn a tiebreaker on Southern Miss on Thursday in Hattiesburg. However, with Marshall and UAB losing, UTSA is already guaranteed a spot in the top five.
WKU (15–10, 8–4 C-USA) simply needs to beat Middle Tennessee Thursday to secure at least a four seed. Winning out guarantees a three spot, with potential to rise to tied for first. If WKU loses out, they would be very likely to lose a tiebreaker to UAB or Marshall if either of those two teams were to win their two remaining games. The Tops could fall as low as sixth. The game at home against MTSU Thursday is basically a must-win, but the Tops absolutely have to win one of two this week to secure their safety and guarantee an 80% chance at a first round bye.
North Texas (20–5, 8–4 C-USA) is backpedaling slightly, but defeating Marshall Thursday really helped their chances. UNT only owns a tiebreaker on Marshall and Southern Miss of the six teams they could possibly tie with heading into the pod system. North Texas could finish as high as second but, just like WKU, could also drop as low as sixth.
Southern Miss (15–9, 7–5 C-USA) is currently standing alone in fifth in Conference USA right now. By the end of the weekend, the Golden Eagles could climb as high as second, or could drop as far as eighth. Fortunately for them, they do own a ton of tiebreakers on opponents lower than them in the standings. The only team USM does not have a tiebreaker on of the seven teams that could end up with a 7–7 record is FIU. In terms of upward movement, USM plays UTSA, so it could leapfrog the Roadrunners if UTSA loses its last two.
UAB (14–11, 6–6 C-USA) needs help to get into the top five, but beating Marshall and Western are mandatory for it to be possible. To get into the all-important top five, UAB must win and have two losses from USM, WKU, or UNT. UAB does play WKU, so they do have some control of one of those games. However, they would need to win in Bowling Green Saturday, assuming WKU lost to Middle. It’s not impossible, but that is a lot of luck and skill needed. If UAB were to falter, which is actually quite likely, the Blazers could actually drop as low as 11th by the end of the week. Wow.
Marshall (13–12, 6–6 C-USA) is in about the same boat as UAB, but Marshall has even less of an in-road than the Blazers. Marshall split with WKU, so depending on who finished ahead between ODU and UTSA, Marshall could jump Western if they were tied. Marshall does not have a tiebreaker with USM or UNT, so Marshall’s only options are beating UAB and Middle at home AND getting WKU and USM to lose two games. On top of that, they have zero control over those two opponents this week. If UTSA finished ahead of ODU, Southern Miss would be the only option for Marshall to jump. The same as UAB, Marshall could drop as low as 11th if all went wrong.
FIU (14–11, 5–7 C-USA) has some quality conference wins, which could absolutely play a factor in the mayhem that is eight teams within two games of each other with two to play. In what would be astronomical odds, as many as six could still be tied with the exact same conference record at week’s end. Literally more than one pod’s worth could have the same record and be decided by fourth and fifth tiebreakers. FIU could climb as high as sixth, but could easily drop as far as 12th and could have an outside chance at 13th.
Rice (10–15, 5–7 C-USA) has very winnable, but potentially very damaging, games against FIU and FAU. Losing both would certainly drop them likely around the 10th seed. However, winning could allow for as high as fifth in a bizarre scenario where everything goes right for the Owls. I can’t even name all of the things that would need to happen, but it is theoretically possibly for Rice to jump Southern Miss, UAB, and Marshall if everything went right for them.
MTSU (8–17, 5–7 C-USA) has come alive of late, helping its chances tremendously. With two wins against UAB and an opportunity against Marshall, Middle could hold some hope of getting as high as sixth, but with tons of losses to its 5–7 mates, Middle could drop down to 12th very easily. In fact, sixth or 12th is probably more likely than an eighth or ninth place because of tiebreaker scenarios.
Louisiana Tech (15–10, 5–7 C-USA) blows my mind every year, but here they are five games above .500 overall and sitting in a five-way tie for eighth. La Tech can brag about wins against WKU, Marshall, UAB and Southern Miss, but also has lost to Charlotte and could lose to UTEP this week. If La Tech finds a way to win a couple of games, they could potentially climb as high as an outside shot at fifth place. However, with a game against UTEP, if by some miracle UTEP were to win two, La Tech would lose a tiebreaker to the Miners. Depending on other teams at that 5–9 mark, La Tech could stand in 13th if everything went wrong for them. Fortunately for them, La Tech gets to play at home, where they are 12–0 this season.
FAU (14–11, 5–7 C-USA) does have a win against UTEP, so they are unlikely to be leapfrogged by the Miners. However, with this big cluster in the middle, FAU has minimal chances because of losses to Southern Miss, UAB, and Marshall. With a split with FIU and some quality wins by the Panthers, FAU could lose a tiebreaker to them, as well. Of this cluster of teams, FAU seems to be one that will slip into the 8–11 range.
UTEP (8–15, 3–9 C-USA) is certainly a bad team, but they still hold out hope of winning a couple of games and climbing into what would be a conference tournament seed line by the end of the week. However, if UTEP loses two games, they could potentially be done before they even get to their 11–14 pod. With games on the road, including one in Ruston (La Tech is 12–0 at home), it seems unlikely UTEP will make noise this week. But the point is they can if they make a move quickly.
Charlotte (6–18, 3–10 C-USA) only has one more game to play before heading into pods. With ten losses in conference and a battle with ODU on the horizon, Charlotte is extremely unlikely to even have a prayer heading into the last two weeks of the season. This is sad for Jon Davis, who is truly one of the best Conference USA players in a long time. If Charlotte could somehow pull off a miracle Saturday at Old Dominion, it would certainly give them a ray of hope. However, losing would almost nail them deep in the coffin already. ODU is a must-win if Charlotte wants a realistic chance to make the tournament. However, with the new pod system, Charlotte is going to be playing bad teams to end the year. Maybe the 49ers could win a few to end the season and squeak into the conference tournament.
Prediction
First Pod:
ODU (beats Charlotte) — 11–3
UTSA (beats USM, loses to La Tech) — 10–4
UNT (beats FAU, beats FIU) — 10–4
WKU (beats MTSU, loses to UAB) — 9–5
USM (loses to UTSA, beats UTEP) — 8–6
Second Pod:
6. Marshall (beats UAB, beats MTSU) — 8–6
7. La Tech (beats UTEP, beats UTSA) — 7–7
8. UAB (loses to Marshall, beats WKU) — 7–7
9. FAU (loses to UNT, beats Rice) — 6–8
10. Rice (beats FIU, loses to FAU) — 6–8
Third Pod:
11. FIU (loses to Rice, loses to UNT) — 5–9
12. MTSU (loses to WKU, loses to Marshall) — 5–9
13. UTEP (loses to La Tech, loses to USM) — 3–11
14. Charlotte (loses to ODU) — 3–11