WKU Basketball: Preseason Preview — Analyzing the Schedule- Can’t Lose Games
We’re less than a week away from the beginning of the 2019–20 Basketball season as the Tops open up against Tennessee Tech on November 5th…
We’re less than a week away from the beginning of the 2019–20 Basketball season as the Tops open up against Tennessee Tech on November 5th. Over the course of the next few days, we’re going to break down the schedule into three categories. Can’t Lose, Should Win & Resume Builders. Each category plays a role in WKU’s at-large resume, conference & NCAA tournament seeding and even NIT considerations (hopefully not).
Today we’ll start with the can’t lose games. These are the NET killers that weigh on a team’s resume at the end of the season. Every one of these losses negates a big win that WKU earns over the course of the season. These are usually sub 150 NET teams and can’t be excused for anything but bad losses if you’re competing for an at-large spot. Losses at Indiana State, at Missouri State, Vs Troy and Vs. FIU killed any chance of WKU not only getting NCAA consideration but probably also kept them out of the NIT as well.
With that in mind here are the can’t lose games based on the date on the schedule:
November 5th- Vs. Tennessee Tech
Preseason Ken Pom Ranking: 307
Preseason Conference Poll Spot: 10th of 12 OVC
Tennessee Tech is about to start their first season under former South Alabama & Arkansas coach John Pelphrey. While I think this is a good hire for the school that WKU poached John Oldham from, I think it will take a few years for Pelphrey to take the Eagles towards the middle of the OVC. They do return two solid guards in sophomores Jr. Clay & Hunter Vick (25.6 points game combined in 2018–19) but return little else from their 8–23 team. Their lack of size (no one over 6'9) and returning production make the Eagles the perfect opening night opponent.
November 9th- Vs. Austin Peay
Preseason Ken Pom Ranking: 202
Preseason Conference Poll Spot: 3rd of 12 OVC
Austin Peay is probably the second-best team that I’ll put in the Can’t Lose category. They return preseason OVC Player of the Year & Bowling Green’s own Terry Taylor (20.5 points & 8.9 rebounds)but lose just about everyone around him from last season’s 22–11 squad. They do add a few talented transfers in guards Reggie Gee (13 PPG at Alabama State) & Evan Hinson (South Carolina) but most of the rest of the roster is complete unknowns with sophomore guard Antwuan Butler a very modest returning piece (3.7 pts, 2 rps, 2.6 apg). Third-year coach Matt Figger appears to be a solid coach having led the Governors to back to back winning seasons during his first two seasons. With the game being at home and early in the season, WKU should cruise before the Govs gel and could be a dark horse in the OVC race.
November 15th- At Eastern Kentucky
Preseason Ken Pom Ranking: 261
Preseason Conference Poll Spot: 9th of 12 OVC
Mark this down, this game will be EKU’s Superbowl as was WKU’s trip to Richmond during Rick Stansbury’s debut season (an embarrassing 59–78 loss). Head coach A.W. Hamilton is in his second season and folks in Richmond seem to think he’ll turn around the mess that he inherited from Dan McHale. Last year the Colonels went 13–18 last season but lost all-everything player Nick Mayo. The best player returning from that squad is guard Jomaru Brown (14.4 ppg). The Colonels return six other players that averaged between four and seven points per game and added impact transfers from NC State (Darius Hicks) and UNC Wilmington (Ty Taylor). Despite the hostile road environment, EKU’s style plays right into WKU’s hands as they like to play really fast. With WKU’s superior athletes and size, the Tops should cruise to a comfortable road win early in the season.
November 18th- Vs. Campbellsville
Preseason Ken Pom Ranking: N/A
Preseason Conference Poll Spot: 4th of 9 Mid-South Conference (NAIA)
Rick Stansbury’s alma mater actually is pretty good for an NAIA team. They play in the same conference as defending NAIA National Champion Georgetown and are ranked 21st in the preseason NAIA coaches poll. The Tigers were a late addition to the schedule and the game will directly proceed the Paradise Jam tournament as a tune-up. The talent differential should help the Toppers overwhelm the outmanned Tigers quickly. Last season’s flawed Hilltopper team cruised to a 91–66 victory against the Tigers, I think we’ll see more of the same as Stansbury gets the end of the bench into the action before the crucial tournament.
November 23rd- Vs. Illinois State* (At Paradise Jam)
Preseason Ken Pom Ranking: 226
Preseason Conference Poll Spot: 7th of 10 in Missouri Valley Conference
This is a tournament dependent opponent that WKU may face in the Paradise Jam depending on how the first round games shake out against Bowling Green & Cincinnati (for the Redbirds). Should WKU face Illinois State they’ll be playing a squad with a lot of question marks. The Redbirds are usually one of the better teams in the MVC but only return one key contributor in guard Zach Copeland (9.3 ppg, 3.0 assists per game) from last season’s 17–16 disappointment. Coach Dan Muller has loaded up on transfers that have had success elsewhere including a pair of San Jose State additions (Keith Fisher III & Jaycee Hillman) that combined for 20 points and 10 rebounds while in San Jose. They also add EKU transfer Dedric Boyd (13.3 ppg in Richmond) to the rotation as well. The Redbirds are undersized (no player taller than 6'9) and too big of an unknown to be more than a can’t lose game. If the Tops end up playing them that means an unexpected upset occurred along the way (either to WKU against Bowling Green or to Cincinnati at the hands of the Redbirds) at the Paradise Jam.
January 4th- Vs. Rice
Preseason Ken Pom Ranking: 187
Preseason Conference Poll Spot: 13th of 14 in CUSA
The Owls gave the Hilltoppers all they could handle last season during a 92–86 double-overtime thriller in Houston. The Owls should continue to improve on their 13–19 record as they return three players that averaged 11+ points in guards Ako Adams & Chris Mullins as well as Forward Robert Martin. They will be starting a 6'10 freshman (Max Fiedler)at center to slow down Charles Bassey. The Owls were a terrible road team last season going just 4–11 away from Houston. This game is the second Conference USA game for both squads so it will be one of the first two games in three days scenarios for both teams. Scott Pera is a good coach who I think will pull some upsets but this isn’t one that worries me too much in 2020 despite the close result last year.
January 11th- At Middle Tennessee
Preseason Ken Pom Ranking: 167
Preseason Conference Poll Spot: 8th of 14 in CUSA
A hated rival on the road is always a tough game whatever the situation, however, I think Middle’s post-Kermit Davis Rebuild is probably a year away from getting the Blue Raiders back towards the top of Conference USA. 2nd-year coach Nate McDevitt returns three starters from last season’s 11–21 setback. Senior guard Antonio Green is the leader having averaged 17.9 points and 4 rebounds last season. MTSU also adds Arkansas transfer C.J. Jones to join guard Donovan Sims and forward Reggie Scurry to complement Green. That seems like a decent core that will probably be in the middle of the CUSA pack however their size and talent deficiencies make it hard for me to see them stacking up against WKU’s veteran-laden roster. Anything can happen in a rivalry but WKU should be ok in when they travel to Murfreesboro.
January 18th- Vs. Charlotte
Preseason Ken Pom Ranking: 263
Preseason Conference Poll Spot: 12th of 14 in CUSA
Head Coach Ron Sanchez enters his second season trying to change Charlotte into a mini Virginia (he left right before the championship). Despite having all-conference guard Jon Davis last season, the 49ers struggled into the new slow down pack line system going just 8–21 in Sanchez’s debut. Davis is now gone but the 49ers add some solid transfers that should probably fit Sanchez’s system better. Jordan Shephard (Oklahoma), Drew Edwards (Providence) & Amidou Bamba (Coastal Carolina) should help infuse talent on a roster that doesn’t return a double-figure scorer or 5+ per game rebounder. With a year of experience in the system, Charlotte should easily be better this season as evidenced by their close exhibition loss to Georgia (77–69). Look for Charlotte to take a step this season and probably catch one of the contenders napping but coming to Diddle will be too big of a hurdle to clear for the young 49ers (only 2 seniors).
February 1st- At FIU
Preseason Ken Pom Ranking: 204
Preseason Conference Poll Spot: 10th of 14 in CUSA
WKU’s worst conference loss last season was the January 17th shocker to a better than usual Panthers squad in Diddle Arena. The Panthers were much improved under first-year coach Jeremy Ballard finishing a respectable 20–14 on the season. Despite the improvement, the Panthers were still ranked 186 in the final NET rankings making them a bad loss, especially at home. This year’s FIU squad loses all-conference guard Brian Beard but returns several pieces including forward Devon Edwards (15.3 points, 5.1 rebounds) and all CUSA defensive Center Osasumwen Osaghae (8.5 rebounds, 3.1 blocks per game). The Panthers specialize in pace playing faster and shooting faster than everyone in the country. Against some teams (such as WKU last year), that will help them jump on teams early but also lends them to be blown out against better teams. FIU added transfers from St Johns (Sedee Keita) & UALR (Cameron Corcoran) to bolster the roster. If they can replace Beard’s production there’s no reason that they can’t be an upper half team in CUSA. WKU better be ready to play in Miami on February 1st.
February 8th- Vs. Southern Miss
Preseason Ken Pom Ranking: 229
Preseason Conference Poll Spot: 14th of 14 in CUSA
Last season’s top four CUSA (20–13) will quickly be a distant memory for the Golden Eagles. They not only lose second-team all-conference guards Cortez Edwards and Tyree Griffin but everyone's favorite sweat pantsed hero Doc Sadler abandoned the program to become an assistant at the school that previously fired him (Nebraska). New coach Jay Ladner takes over his alma mater with a roster that returns two contributing forwards, three-point specialist LaDavius Draine (47% on threes) and Leonard Harper-Baker (9.6 points and 8 rebounds) but the rest of the roster is little used reserves and juco lottery tickets. If USM breaks 10 wins this year it’s a miracle and with the game in Diddle, WKU should get a breather before the stretch run of the conference schedule.
Tune back tomorrow as we’ll identify the Should Win games on WKU’s schedule. These are the type of games that WKU can only afford to lose 1 or 2 of them if they want to be a serious at-large contender.