WKU Basketball: Preseason Preview — Analyzing the Schedule- Should Win Games
We’re less than a week away from the beginning of the 2019–20 Basketball season as the Tops open up against Tennessee Tech on November 5th…
We’re less than a week away from the beginning of the 2019–20 Basketball season as the Tops open up against Tennessee Tech on November 5th. Over the course of the next few days, we’re going to break down the schedule into three categories. Can’t Lose, Should Win & Resume Builders. Each category plays a role in WKU’s at-large resume, conference & NCAA tournament seeding and even NIT considerations (hopefully not).
Today we’ll continue the series with “Should Win” games. These are the challenging games that WKU needs to take care of business in during the season. Most of these teams are upper-level CUSA squads that won’t have a high enough NET (100–175) to count as quad 1 or 2 wins but one loss shouldn’t submarine WKU’s chances either. If WKU can go 6–2 or 7–1 in these eight games it would go a long way towards bolstering WKU’s resume. If they slip up on the road against one of these teams it shouldn’t be a death sentence if it’s in the context of a 12–2 pre pod play CUSA record. If they go 4–4 in these types of games then it’s once again C-USA tournament or bust.
With that in mind here are the should win games based on the date on the schedule:
November 22nd- Vs. Bowling Green (At Paradise Jam)
Preseason Ken Pom Ranking: 117
Preseason Conference Poll Spot: 1st of 12 MAC
WKU’s opening opponent in the Paradise Jam will be their first test of the season. The Falcons were voted the Preseason Favorite in the MAC and were named the 25th best Mid-Major team according to Mid Major Madness. They’ll be looking to make their first NCAA tournament since 1968. They went 22–12 (with wins over tournament teams Buffalo & NC Central) last season losing to ranked Buffalo in the conference tournament finals. They return two preseason All-Mac players in guards Justin Turner (18.2 PPG, 3.7 RPG & 3.1 APG) & Dylan Frye (12.8 PPG & 2.4 APG). Suspended point guard Michael Laster (6.8 PPG & 2.7 APG) could also be back by the Paradise Jam to give the Falcons a veteran backcourt the Tops will have to overcome. The Falcons lack proven production in the post other than 6'6 tweener Daeqwon Plowden (6.9 pts & 4.8 rebounds) so expect a heavy dose of Charles Bassey & Carson Williams against the Falcons. Guard laden teams that can shoot gave WKU fits last year (see Marshall, ODU) so if the Falcons are shooting well, an upset in Paradise isn’t out of the question potentially robbing WKU of a showdown against Cincinnati.
January 2nd- Vs. North Texas
Preseason Ken Pom Ranking: 185
Preseason Conference Poll Spot: 7th of 14 in CUSA
Last season, North Texas jumped out to a fast start (16–1) against a weak schedule but faded down the stretch (losing eight of their last nine)before getting eliminated by WKU in the second round of the CUSA Tournament. Expectations have been lowered in Denton but they return a solid core of players despite the grad transfer of Ryan Woolridge to Gonzaga. Coach Grant McCasland is a winner (20+ wins in all three seasons as a head coach) and with the core of guard Roosevelt Smart (10.7 PPG & 3.6 RPG), guard Umoja Gibson (12.6 PPG) & Forward Zachary Simmons (10.2 PPG & 7.0 RPG) they’ll be able to match returning production with 90% of CUSA. They also added North Dakota State grad transfer Deng Geu (9.6 PPG & 4.9 RPG) to their front line and Juco scorer Javion Hamlet to their backcourt to round out their starting lineup. Consistent scoring was the Mean Green’s problem last year and if the newcomers can provide points then they should compete for the Top pod in CUSA. With the game being in Diddle this game is a must-win (UNT was just 6–7 away from Denton last year) but the Tops better be ready on the second day of 2020.
January 9th- At UAB
Preseason Ken Pom Ranking: 123
Preseason Conference Poll Spot: 6th of 14 in CUSA
As you can tell from the ratings above, opinions widely vary on the Blazers. All-Conference guard Zack Bryant (14.9 PPG, 3.9 APG) returns for his junior season. He can take over games and put the Blazers on his back, as he did with a 24 point performance in a 68–60 win in Diddle Arena last February. If he continues to elevate his game with experience, the Blazers have enough around him to threaten again the top pod in CUSA. WKU legacy guard Tavin Lovan had a solid debut in Birmingham (7.1 PPG & 3.9 RPG) and center Makhtar Gueye (8.3 PPG & 6.7 RPG) holds his own against most bigs in CUSA. UAB has been solid but not spectacular in Rob Ehsan’s three seasons (average record of 19–15) and I’d expect more of the same this year. WKU usually struggles in Bartow Arena (5–15)so this one has upset potential. Hopefully
January 16th- Vs. Old Dominion
Preseason Ken Pom Ranking: 145
Preseason Conference Poll Spot: Tied- 4th of 14 in CUSA
ODU was WKU’s kryptonite last season as the Monarchs defeated WKU all three times on their way to both the regular season and conference tournament titles. Thankfully for WKU All-Conference guards B.J. Stith and Ahmad Caver have both graduated but the Monarchs do return plenty of contributors that will be asked to take the next step this season. That starts with guard Xavier Green (9.6 PPG & 3.8 RPG) who scored 16 points in the C-USA Title game to send WKU home a game short for the second year in a row. That performance earned Green MVP honors in the CUSA tournament and he’ll look to take his game to that next level. Joining Green are Wing Marquis Godwin (7.2 PPG) and Clemson transfer AJ Oliver. The Monarchs also bring back the 7-foot Dejour Dickens (3.6 RPG & 1.7 BPG) who did a solid job of slowing down Charles Bassey (only 12.5 PPG) during each of ODU’s last two meetings against the Tops. ODU’s slow down defensive first style will always pose a challenge no matter how good WKU is. The retooling roster and the game in Bowling Green should make this much easier than last season.
January 22nd & 25th At/Vs. Marshall
Preseason Ken Pom Ranking: 195
Preseason Conference Poll Spot: 11th of 14 in CUSA
I’m a lot higher on the Thundering Herd than most of the preseason prognosticators, I’d be shocked if they finish in the 200’s of any rankings. While I think that Jon Elmore & CJ Burks were indispensable players, I have a hard time seeing Marshall falling back to the cellar of the league. Dan Dantoni has proven he is a good coach and the Herd’s Hillbilly Ball style should still make them pesky this season. I also think that guard Taevion Kinsey (10.5 PPG & 4.0 RPG) is ready to take the leadership role in Huntington. The Herd also return four players that averaged between 4 & 9 points per game led by big man Jannson Wiliams (5.1 RPG & 1.9 BPG). This is year 6 of Dantoni in Huntington and I think as long as he’s there they’re not going to fall too far off (they went a disappointing 18–13 during the regular season). They’ll beat some teams they’re not supposed to but also get blown out when their offense isn’t clicking. This seems like a solid middle of the pack team that will be tough for WKU to play back to back rivalry games in the span of a week.
January 30th- At FAU
Preseason Ken Pom Ranking: 177
Preseason Conference Poll Spot: 9th of 14 in CUSA
One of the sleeper teams in CUSA is the Owls from Boca Raton. Former Florida assistant Dusty May coached the Owls to their best record in almost a decade (17–16) and beat tournament teams UCF & ODU (along with Illinois) in the process. The Owls were decimated by injuries down the stretch last season and did lose some really good players in Xavian Stapleton and Anthony Adger. They do get some hurt players back including preseason All-CUSA forward Jailyn Ingram (18.9 points and 8.2 rebounds) and Hopkinsville’s own Jaylen Sebree (9.4 points, 4.2 rebounds). Combine those two with Wright State transfer forward Everett Winchester (8.0 points) and point guard Michael Forrest (8.5 points & 2.9 assists) and you’ve got a team that should compete night in and night out in Conference USA (if they can avoid the injury bug). WKU better not take the Owls lightly during that last Thursday in January.
February 6th Vs. Louisiana Tech
Preseason Ken Pom Ranking: 110
Preseason Conference Poll Spot: 3rd of 14 in CUSA
The Bulldogs are a more proven version of UAB. DaQuan Bracey (15.5 PPG & 4 APG) is the lead guard in the mold of Zack Bryant but they’ve got several more guards with proven production around him. Had they not got bitten by the transfer bug (Anthony Duruji to Florida & Ra’Shawn Langston to McNeese ST.), they’d probably be close to UTSA as the number two squad in CUSA. Besides Bracey they’ve got two other productive guards in Amorie Archibald (10.8 PPG & 3.1 APG) and Exavian Christon (12.0 PPG & 3.6 RPG in 5 games). The Bulldogs are a defensive first team that might skew towards small ball due to talent level of guards. Their front line is small with only one player over 6'8 (West Virginia transfer Andrew Gordon)so Bassey could have a big day. This team will often jump on Bracey’s shoulders and win with defense. The game is in Bowling Green which should help WKU’s chances of avenging last season’s 62–50 slugfest loss. Don’t be surprised if WKU has to face the Bulldogs multiple times this season.
Tune back Sunday as we’ll identify the Resume Builder games on WKU’s schedule. These are the type of games that WKU has to win a significant amount of if they want to be a serious at-large contender.