WKU Basketball: Preview for Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State 2
The Tops came back from a slow start in Bowling Green, but could Ray Harper finally get his revenge on his former team away from Diddle Arena? Here's everything you need to know for WKU vs JSU.
Overview
On Saturday, February 10, The Western Kentucky University Hilltoppers head down to Jacksonville Alabama to face off against the Gamecocks of Jacksonville State University. Western Kentucky (16-7, 5-4 CUSA) is coming off of a HUGE 81-76 win Wednesday night in Ruston against Louisiana Tech, keeping the Hilltoppers at fourth in Conference USA. Jacksonville State (12-12, 4-5 CUSA) is also coming off of a big 79-68 win in Jacksonville against Sam Houston State, moving the Gamecocks to fifth in Conference USA, tied with Liberty. More importantly for the rest of CUSA, it knocks Sam Houston down to second and opens up a wide range of possibilities for the teams below them in the standings. As of publication, ESPN’s BPI favors Jacksonville State with a 64.3% chance to win.
Notable Statistics
WKU Stat Leaders
PPG: Don McHenry- 15.6 points per game
RPG: Brandon Newman- 6.0 rebounds per game
APG: Don McHenry- 2.7 assists per game
Jax State Stat Leaders
PPG: Kyky Tandy- 18.6 points per game
RPG: Juwan Perdue- 6.0 rebounds per game
APG: Quincy Clark- 2.9 assists per game
WKU Team Stats
80.7 PPG
46.9% FG
34% 3PT
40 RPG
13.6 APG
7.4 SPG
14.1 TO
Jax State Team Stats
70.9 PPG
46.2% FG
33.1% 3PT
37.2 RPG
11.2 APG
6.8 SPG
13.4 TO
Keys to Victory
WKU
WKU is really going to have to try to shut down Kyky Tandy. Tandy is a 6’2” guard for the Gamecocks and is Conference USA’s leading scorer at over 18 points per game. He had 25 points when these two teams played in Bowling Green and takes well over 40 percent of the Gamecocks’ shots. In Bowling Green, Tandy attempted 21 shots out of the team’s 57, so almost 50% of the Jacksonville State offense goes through Kyky Tandy. Khristian Lander will likely still be out for Saturday’s game, which means someone on this Hilltopper team is going to have to step up and have to guard Tandy for 40 minutes. Could Jack Edelen get in front of Tandy? Could Brandon Newman use his length? Could Don McHenry shows some defense and handle him? There’s no perfect answer, and it may just have to be by committee. Lander did a really good job in Bowling Green, but someone is going to have to take on the load of having to keep up with Tandy all game, which will be tough.
Western is also going to have to take care of the ball. The Hilltoppers had 17 turnovers last time these two teams faced each other in Bowling Green. Recently, WKU has been having some good games turnover-wise, which has helped them win two games in a row, but they could easily fall back into their old ways if they’re not careful. Jacksonville State does not play at an intense pace, barely scoring 70 points per game despite shooting over 46 percent from the floor. If WKU has another 17 turnover performance, that is real trouble for the Tops. There may not be enough possessions to go around to overcome that many turnovers on the road. The only reason WKU was able to overcome was a blistering offensive explosion in the second half.
Finally, WKU needs to stay out of foul trouble. In their last game against Louisiana Tech, WKU came out of the half and fouled seven times in the first five minutes which gave the Bulldogs a really good chance to get themselves back into the game. Luckily for Western, La Tech shot only 63% from the free-throw line and couldn’t capitalize on Western’s sloppy defense. If WKU can stay out of foul trouble while still being physical and aggressive, I like Western’s chances to win this game.
Jax State
Jacksonville State is going to have to stop Don McHenry. Don is a 6’2” guard for WKU and has been going off lately. He has averaged 21 points in his last three games for the Hilltoppers and has led the team in scoring in each of those three games. Although he went 0-for-3 from distance in his last outing against La Tech, McHenry is lethal from outside, shooting 40.7% on the season. His main way of scoring, however, is by driving and shooting smooth floaters and long layups off the side of the backboard all game long. McHenry could be a big problem for the Gamecocks if they don’t make him uncomfortable.
The Gamecocks are also going to have to shut down Rodney Howard. Rodney is a 6’11” center for the Hilltoppers and has really started to dominate in these last few games. Howard has averaged 17 points in his last three games, along with 5.6 rebounds. He is a big body that can seal the post and cause opposing defenses some big fits. When he sees one go in, he’s really hard to stop, and if he can find the ball down on the block, forget stopping him. The Jacksonville State bigs better come prepared Saturday night or else Rodney will make them pay.
Lastly, Jax State will need to guard the three. Last time these two teams played, WKU went 10-of-20, 50% from distance. You aren’t going to win a lot of games when you let your opponent shoot 50% from three-point range. Jax State will need to make sure they are playing tight defense around the perimeter and closing out fast to keep Western from catching fire from beyond the arc because if they don’t, it could be a long night for the Gamecocks, especially given WKU’s ability to penetrate. If the Gamecocks can’t force WKU to be one-dimensional offensively, the Tops could carve up JSU’s sometimes porous defense. Despite a pretty comprehensive victory, Sam Houston nearly got back in the game Thursday by driving, kicking, and repentrating the lane. Several times in the second half, JSU blew an assignment and gave up a wide open dunk to Sam Houston.
Richards’ Expectations and Predictions
First of all, both teams are coming off of huge wins over the number one and number two teams in Conference USA. You can expect both teams to come out confident, hungry, and ready to play. If Jacksonville State wins, they climb even with WKU in the standings. If WKU wins, they could climb as high as tied for second. I’m sure Ray Harper didn’t enjoy his return to Diddle as much as Western fans did and is looking for some major payback. Both teams have had a very up and down conference season so far but are more than capable of turning it around and winning some big games. With both teams with momentum and confidence, expect a high level of play from both sides.
Let’s say this will be an 82-75 win for WKU. I think that WKU has now gotten a taste of what it’s like to win on the road and that last win over La Tech is really going to give them a lot of momentum closing out the conference season. Jacksonville State is a really dangerous team, but I think that WKU is just better. As long as WKU can keep Tandy under control, I don’t see a way that Jacksonville State wins this game, other than someone else going off for more than 20. This is generally a much better matchup for WKU than some of the other more physical teams in Conference USA. If Western can handle Tandy and not turn someone else loose for a ton, WKU should be fine. This is a road game, so you never know. ESPN’s BPI likes Jacksonville State, but this just feels like the Tops are building momentum, and it’s time to crank it into high gear heading into mid-February. Throw the metrics out and let’s play ball.
Conclusion
Overall, this game should be a must-watch, and it will be interesting to see how Ray Harper and his Gamecocks handle the memory of the loss in Bowling Green. Both teams have a lot at stake and badly want to win. Both teams have also played a lot of basketball since the first matchup. Never underestimate the Ray Harper effect, and never underestimate great players like Kyky Tandy.
For anyone who is not able to make it to Jacksonville, the game will be on ESPN+ at 4:00 pm CT. You can also tune into @thetowelrackwku on Twitter/X for build-up, live tweets, and reactions. While you’re at it, go ahead and check out the RedOut Podcast on Twitter/X and on YouTube. As always, we are your #1 source for unfiltered and honest WKU content!