WKU Basketball: Preview for Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee
It's time to throw out all of the projections and records, because it's 100 Miles of Hate week on the hill! Here's everything you need to know for WKU vs MTSU.
Overview
On Saturday, February 3, the Middle Tennessee State University Blue Raiders head up to Bowling Green, Kentucky, to face off against their longtime rivals, the Western Kentucky University Hilltoppers, in “100 Miles of Hate”. Middle Tennessee (8-13, 2-4 CUSA) has had a slow start to conference play but is coming off of a two-game winning streak over Jacksonville State 75-67 and Florida International 79-61, moving them to seventh in the conference. Western Kentucky (14-7, 3-4 CUSA) is coming off of a tough loss at home against Sam Houston 79-77, moving them to fourth in the conference, tied with UTEP and Jacksonville State. As of publication, ESPN’s BPI has WKU with a healthy 79.6% chance of winning.
Notable Statistics
WKU Stat Leaders
PPG: Don McHenry: 15.1 points per game
RPG: Brandon Newman: 6.2 rebounds per game
APG: Don McHenry: 2.9 assists per game
MTSU Stat Leaders
PPG: Jestin Porter: 13 points per game
RPG: Jared Coleman-Jones: 7.1 rebounds per game
APG: Jared Coleman-Jones: 2 assists per game
WKU Team Stats
80.4 PPG
46.7% FG
33.7% 3PT
40.1 RPG
13.9 APG
7.7 SPG
14.4 TO
MTSU Team Stats
63.8 PPG
40.9% FG
28.6% 3PT
35 RPG
9.9 APG
6.2 SPG
14.7 TO
Keys To Victory
WKU
WKU is going to have to play a full, 40-minute game to beat Middle. We’ve seen the same story multiple times this season where Western has a big lead at some point in the game and at least a comfortable lead in the second half but ends up letting their opponent come back and turn it into a ball game. This was the case against Sam Houston. Western had a comfortable lead in the second half but couldn’t close out the game. We are going to have to see this WKU team improve on finishing games strong and not letting their opponents back into the game with soft defense and bad shot selection on offense if they want to succeed against Middle and in Conference USA.
Western is also going to have to shut down Jestin Porter. He is Middle Tennessee’s leading scorer, and he has turned it on these past couple of games with 30 points against Jacksonville State and 20 points against Florida International. He’s a 6’1 guard that can take it to the hole and light it up from three. He reminds me a lot of Kyky Tandy of Jacksonville State, another do it all guard. It’s going to be crucial for Western to keep Porter under control and shut him down (or at least slow him down) offensively.
WKU is going to need to get their big men going. Rodney Howard, a 6’11 center for the Hilltoppers, had his best offensive game against Sam Houston going 7-of-8 from the field and scoring 17 points on the night. When Howard gets going, he is very hard to stop. If Western is able to feed him the ball when he is in position to score, then he could have another great night for the Hilltoppers. Babacar Faye struggled against Sam Houston offensively, going 1-5 and only scoring 3 points, but he has had a great season so far and can really change the pace of a game if he can get going offensively. He’s also the “hustle guy” leading WKU in offensive rebounds, although Big Rod has nearly caught up to him in this category. It’s going to be very important for WKU to give both big men opportunities to score inside and let their presence be felt against this Middle Tennessee interior.
MTSU
Middle Tennessee is going to have to take care of the ball. In all but one of their losses throughout conference play, they have turned the ball over more than their opponents. The lone exception was when they played Sam Houston, having had the same number of turnovers as the Bearkats. Their worst game taking care of the ball was against UTEP when they had 27 total turnovers for the game. 27 turnovers just isn’t going to win you very many games in college basketball. WKU loves to get out in transition and score fast break points so it will be very important for the Blue Raiders to take care of the ball to limit Western’s fast break opportunities.
MTSU is also going to have to shut down Don McHenry. He is a 6’2 guard that has a really smooth offensive game. He is WKU’s leading scorer and has had a really good conference season so far. He had 21 points against Sam Houston and is really capable of turning it on and not slowing down. Middle Tennessee is going to have to make sure that they keep McHenry under control and not let him get too many looks on offense or it could be a long night for the Blue Raiders. Also, watch McHenry’s turnovers. Despite a high assist rate, McHenry also turns the ball over. If MTSU can force him into four or more turnovers, that bodes well for MTSU.
The last thing that Middle Tennessee is going to need to do is get Elias King going. King is a 6’8 guard, yes guard, that can take over a game with ease if he is on. He’s had a decent year so far but as we know from last year, he can definitely get very hot very quick and not cool down. If the Blue Raiders can get him some good looks early in the game, it could give Middle a really good chance to win this game. Perhaps this would be the lone matchup problem for WKU. What 6’8” player on WKU’s team can match up with a 6’8” guard? Tyrone Marshall, maybe? Other than that, this is a mismatch that could cause WKU fits.
Richards’ Expectations and Predictions
Like I said earlier, in a rivalry like this, you can throw out all the projections and records, because both of these teams are going to be hungry to win this game. Both teams have great coaches and good rosters, and I wouldn’t be surprised if both of these teams find themselves in the race to win the conference tournament in March. Middle Tennessee has had a down year, but they still have a lot of talent and a good coach, and they are more than capable of turning their season around. They weren’t tied for number one in the Conference USA preseason poll for no reason. You can expect this game to be very physical and fast-paced. Both teams are good sized and love to impose their will on their opponents. The team that wants it more will win this game and that’s what it’s going to come down to.
I’m going to predict that WKU beats Middle Tennessee by a score of 80-65. Diddle has been a very tough place to play this year and you know that Steve Lutz is going to have his Hilltopper team ready for everything that the Blue Raiders throw his way. I think that the Hilltopper defense will be too much for Middle to handle even without Khristian Lander, a starting point guard for WKU who will most likely still be out undergoing concussion protocol.
Conclusion
Overall, if you know your Topper history, especially more recent history, you should be very excited for this game. WKU vs MTSU is always a great game, and it will be very interesting to see how Steve Lutz does his first time coaching the Tops against Middle Tennessee. Saturday night’s game is going to be a red-out so everyone that is able to make it to Diddle should wear red. This Hilltopper team has had a very up and down conference season so far but still needs all the support that they can get, so whether you’re a student or a regular fan, show up, wear red, and be loud as WKU faces off against their biggest rival, Middle Tennessee.
For anyone that is not able to make it to Diddle Arena, the game will be on ESPNU/ESPN+ at 7:00 pm CT. You can also tune into @thetowelrackwku on Twitter/X for build-up, live tweets, and reactions. While you’re at it, go ahead and check out the RedOut Podcast on Twitter/X and on YouTube. As always, we are your #1 source for unfiltered and honest WKU content!