WKU Basketball: Preview for Western Kentucky vs Liberty, Part 2
The Tops opened up the conference season with a 2-point victory over the Flames in Bowling Green. Will Liberty get their revenge in Lynchburg? Here's everything you need to know about WKU vs Liberty.
Overview
On Saturday, March 9, The Western Kentucky University Hilltoppers head to Lynchburg, Virginia, to play against the Conference USA preseason number one team, the Liberty University Flames. Western Kentucky (19-10, 8-7 CUSA) is currently on a three-game losing streak for the first time this season, most recently losing to Florida International, 85-83, in Miami, but still (somehow) keeping the Hilltoppers at third place in Conference USA. Liberty (17-13, 6-9 CUSA) is coming off of a tough 69-61loss in Murfreesboro to Middle Tennessee, dropping the Flames to fifth place in Conference USA, tied with UTEP, New Mexico State, and Jacksonville State. As of publication, ESPN’s BPI really likes Liberty with an 84.6% chance of winning over Western Kentucky.
What It Means For Each Team
WKU
For WKU, this is most importantly just a chance to build back some confidence. Although Sam Houston State looks like the team playing the best basketball in Conference USA and WKU avoids Sam Houston as long as possible with a win, the main thing here regardless of what seed the Tops end up residing in, the Tops need to be in a good head space mentally. Play well against Liberty and feel good going in to Conference USA Tournament.
That being said, the other more obvious benefit to winning is slamming the door on rival MTSU to somehow squirrel out a three seed. MTSU needs tons of help, including needing a win at La Tech that has “ballooned” up to a 3.4% chance of an MTSU win according to ESPN’s BPI. Now, of course that means very little and is not accounting for current level of play, but it is virtually impossible for MTSU to have all things go correctly and get their three seed. Here’s the main thing: WKU squashes their biggest rival’s hopes with a win. There’s your carrot. Win and you resolve a lot of your issues. Also, Liberty is going to be a rival in every sport until one of these two teams leaves for another conference. This is a chance to establish clear recruiting hierarchy over LU.
Liberty
I’m not putting this statement on the board in the WKU locker room, but Liberty certainly has much more to play for in this game. Liberty could drop to the 8/9 matchup if they lose to WKU, and it could happen very easily. Win and they avoid the 8/9 and possibly climb as high as a five seed. The main thing here is Senior Night (we already saw WKU lose one of those on the road) and seeding. It’s plenty to fight for.
Liberty, despite the worst size in America (not hyperbole), has a legitimate shot to win the CUSA Tournament, regardless of seed. However, if they are given equal footing with everyone else, obviously the odds go massively up in their favor. The problem is they (should) have a very angry WKU team that has plenty to play for, as well. WKU controlled most of the game in Diddle Arena in early January, especially once they figured out Liberty’s swooping drive-and-kick to backdoor cut offense. Before, though, Liberty’s small guards gave the Tops fits.
Notable Statistics
WKU Stat Leaders
PPG: Don McHenry- 15.4 points per game
RPG: Babacar Faye- 5.8 rebounds per game
APG: Don McHenry- 2.5 assists per game
Liberty Stat Leaders
PPG: Kyle Rode- 13.8 points per game
RPG: Joseph Venzant- 6.3 rebounds per game
APG: Zach Cleveland- 3.9 assists per game
WKU Team Stats
80.3 PPG
46.5% FG
33.7% 3PT
40.1 RPG
13.4 APG
7.2 SPG
13.8 TO
Liberty Team Stats
74.1 PPG
46.7% FG
36.5% 3PT
34.5 RPG
15.8 APG
5.2 SPG
10.1 TO
Keys to Victory
WKU
Western Kentucky is really going to have to get back to their old identity. Throughout conference play, WKU has had stellar three-point defense, has led the conference in rebounding, and has had the fastest tempo in the country. Throughout these past few games, however, they have really slowed down in all three of those categories, specifically their three-point defense. Over WKU’s last three games, they have allowed their opponents to shoot 46.7% from the three-point line. This is miles above their season average of holding their opponents to just 31.1% per game. Liberty is the best three-point shooting team in Conference USA and is currently top 50 in the country at 36.5% on the season. Western Kentucky is really going to have to buckle down and try to keep the Flames from getting from hot from beyond the arc or else the Hilltoppers could be heading into the Conference USA tournament on a four-game losing streak.
WKU is also going to have to try to control Zach Cleveland. Cleveland is a 6’7” forward for the Flames and he gave WKU a lot of fits when these two teams played in Bowling Green. Cleveland ended the game leading all scorers with 23 points and had 7 rebounds on top of that. He isn’t a three-point shooter but is very skilled inside and can score with ease over taller and stronger defenders. Another thing to add about Cleveland, a lot of teams like to play off of him and let him roam free when he is behind the arc which gives him a lot of room to facilitate. As a result of this, he leads the Flames at 3.9 assists per game. Western Kentucky absolutely cannot let Zach Cleveland get comfortable because he is definitely more than capable of taking over and winning the game for the Flames by a thousand little cuts.
The Hilltoppers really need to dominate the paint. Liberty’s tallest players are only 6’7”. Western Kentucky, on the other hand, has Babacar Faye at 6’8” and Rodney Howard at 6’11”. Babacar Faye recently led the Hilltoppers in scoring with 14 points in their loss to Florida International. Rodney Howard wasn’t far behind with 12 points for the night as well. Both of these big men are going to have to impose their will on the offensive end and have another great night for WKU to have their best chance of winning. Like I’ve said many times before, let the big men eat. Feed it into the post and get them going. If the Flames start to double team down low, that will free up your shooters. If WKU isn’t able to dominate the paint on the offensive end, it will be very hard for the Hilltoppers to leave Lynchburg with their 20th win of the season.
Bonus Key from the Editor: Have Some Juice!
One thing that has been lacking from WKU at times, and especially against FIU for most of the game, was having more fire than the other team. FIU clearly had more in the tank that game, despite missing Arturo Dean. WKU had lapses in focus against MTSU, allowing an inferior team to shoot over 50 percent from three and gain not one but two nine or more point leads that WKU overcame and then lost. Even against La Tech, which granted was the much more predictable and forgivable loss of the three, Western just had some mental lapses, blown assignments, and moments where they just fell apart for a few minutes and allowed a huge swing on the scoreboard.
If WKU is going to win a conference championship, they have to come together and look like the team that they have looked like nearly all season, and that is the best team in Conference USA. Other teams may beg to differ, and that’s completely fair. But WKU at its best is unbeatable in CUSA. Hopefully, that “look” comes back and stays through the rest of the season. If they bring that, they’ll beat Liberty.
Liberty
Liberty is really going to have to take care of the ball. In their two most recent games, the Flames have had an average of 6.5 turnovers more than their opponents, resulting in two losses. When you’re letting your opponents have that many more opportunities to score, it’s very hard to win, especially when you aren’t shooting well. Zach Cleveland ended up having 5 of the 17 turnovers for the Flames in their loss to UTEP and six of the Flames’ 16 turnovers in their loss to Middle Tennessee. Cleveland, along with the rest of his fellow Flames, will need to make it a point of emphasis to take care of the ball against the Hilltoppers.
Liberty needs to look out for Don McHenry. McHenry is a 6’2” guard and is leading the Hilltoppers in scoring at 15.4 points per game. Although he hasn’t played great these past few games, he is still the Hilltoppers’ main source of scoring and has the ability to drop 20+ points on any given night. He led Western Kentucky in scoring when these two teams played in Bowling Green with 18 points on the night. He is very good at taking the ball to the hole and taking advantage of the floater. In addition, he can step out and light it up from three-point range just as well as anyone in Conference USA. If the Flames let Don get going and let him get out of his slump, it could be very hard to slow him down.
The Flames also need to shut Teagan Moore down. Teagan is a 6’5” freshman guard for the Hilltoppers and has really stepped his game up lately. He had a career high 22 points a couple games ago in WKU’s loss to Louisiana Tech to lead all scorers. While Teagan is capable of shooting threes, his main source of offense is driving the ball to the hole and either scoring off of layups or getting fouled and scoring off of free throws. Teagan could be able to take advantage of Liberty’s lack of size and exploit their defense in the paint if the Flames aren’t careful.
Bonus Key from the Editor: Manage Momentum
WKU on most nights is the most explosive offense in Conference USA, so no lead is too great for the Tops to overcome. However, no lead is too great for its opponents to overcome, as well. Liberty may get down, or they may be up. Either way, it’s about they handle it from there. They handled it well at WKU, nearly stealing a game they had no business winning at the buzzer. A better shot and LU would’ve left Diddle Arena with a stolen W. Instead, WKU started out well in CUSA and Liberty dug itself a hole that it never got out of. WKU’s main Achilles heel is being too relaxed. It’s good to be cool as a cucumber, but Topper fans would love to see a blowout victory. Or a toe-to-toe affair where both teams play great and the Tops hopefully come out on top. That’s been rare this season, and many WKU games have revealed the tendency to lose focus. From Liberty’s perspective, be more steady, and if you get a lead, expand it.
Richards’ Expectations and Predictions
While it was only a two-point game in Bowling Green, the Tops had a double-digit lead with about a minute to go in that game. It really shouldn’t have been that close, but the Flames had a last-minute surge that almost propelled them to the victory, mostly because of WKU’s mistakes. This being said, a whole conference season has been played since then and both teams are looking very different at this moment in time. Liberty has had a very frustrating season and has fallen short of a lot of high expectations. Liberty was the preseason number one team in Conference USA and is currently all the way back in fifth place, tied with three other teams. On the other hand, WKU, while they haven’t been playing very well recently, has exceeded a lot of expectations in Steve Lutz’s first year on The Hill. Before the season started, if anyone would’ve said that WKU would be one game off of 20 wins going into March with a first-year head coach, eight transfers, and two freshmen, not very many people would believe you. Certainly most would have taken that offer. Both teams want to be able to head into the Conference USA Tournament in Huntsville with some momentum coming off of a win. WKU has pretty much secured the 3-seed, but Liberty could end up falling all the way down to the 8-seed if they don’t win. Both teams want it badly and it could end up being a very close game going all the way down to the wire.
This feels awful, but I’m going to go 77-74 Liberty. My inner WKU fan hates to say this, but Western Kentucky is just not playing good at all right now, and if you’ve looked at Liberty or watched how they played against La Tech at home, the Flames are so much better at home than away. The way this Hilltopper team has played these last few games has really reminded me of their mid-season tournament in Canada, when WKU went 1-2 against very mediocre teams, melting down double digit leads. Their defense has been awful to watch and there seems to be little to no sense of urgency, like we saw out of the Hilltoppers the first time these two teams played. Liberty, while they haven’t been playing great, either, has one final chance to get a decent seed for the tournament and I’m sure will be leaving it all out on the court. They have a lot more to play for and have a good chance of giving WKU their fourth loss in a row to end the season.
Here’s to hoping Steve Lutz pulls some magic and gets this team to play great out of nowhere, but it’s just really hard to pick against what is most likely to happen, and that is a Senior Night win for a Liberty team scratching and clawing for a chance.
Conclusion
This is the last game of the regular season for both teams. The next time we will be seeing them will be in Huntsville at the Conference USA Tournament. Both teams are more than capable of making a run, and I wouldn’t be surprised if either team ended up winning it all and punching their ticket to the NCAA Tournament. It hasn’t been a great past couple of games for either team, but both teams have the opportunity to end the season on the right note and head into Huntsville with some momentum. Which team that will be? I couldn’t tell you, but we will find out Saturday.
For anyone that is not able to make it to Lynchburg, the game will be on ESPN+ at 12:00 pm CT. You can also tune into @thetowelrackwku on Twitter/X for build-up, live tweets, and reactions. While you’re at it, go ahead and check out the RedOut Podcast on Twitter/X and on YouTube. Also, for Lady Topper live tweeting, follow RedOut, as RedOut will have live tweets when the men play at the same time. As always, we are your #1 source for unfiltered and honest WKU content!