WKU Basketball: Preview for Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee, Part 2
It's once again time for 100 Miles of Hate! The Tops took care of business in Bowling Green, but can they do it again in Murfreesboro? Here's everything you need to know for WKU at MTSU.
Overview
On Saturday, February 24, the Western Kentucky University Hilltoppers head 100 miles south to battle it out against the Middle Tennessee State University Blue Raiders in the rematch of the 100 Miles of Hate rivalry. Western Kentucky (19-7, 8-4 CUSA) is currently the hottest team in Conference USA coming off of five straight wins, most recently beating New Mexico State 72-58 in Bowling Green last Saturday, keeping the Hilltoppers at third in Conference USA. WKU needs a little help, but the Tops are in a three way battle with La Tech and Sam Houston State for the top seed in CUSA.
Middle Tennessee (11-16, 5-7 CUSA) was on a three-game winning streak heading into Wednesday night’s game against Jacksonville State but ended up losing to the Gamecocks 76-68, dropping the Blue Raiders to sixth in Conference USA, tied with Jacksonville State. Although Middle Tennessee sits at a salvageable position in CUSA, the Blue Raiders are projected to lose its final four games. Of course, games are not played on paper, but Middle will need to upset in order to stay out of CUSA’s basement at a 5-11 or 6-10 record. Despite this being a road game for WKU, as of publication, ESPN’s BPI likes WKU with a 63.5% chance of winning.
Notable Statistics
WKU Stat Leaders
PPG: Don McHenry- 16.1 points per game
RPG: Brandon Newman- 5.9 rebounds per game
APG: Don McHenry- 2.7 assists per game
MTSU Stat Leaders
PPG: Jestin Porter- 14.1 points per game
RPG: Jared Coleman-Jones- 7.6 rebounds per game
APG: Jared Coleman-Jones- 2.1 assists per game
WKU Team Stats
80.3 PPG
47% FG
33.8% 3PT
40.2 RPG
13.6 APG
7.3 SPG
14 TO
MTSU Team Stats
65.4 PPG
41% FG
30.5% 3PT
35.1 RPG
10.1 APG
5.5 SPG
14.6 TO
Keys to Victory
WKU
Western Kentucky is going to have to keep Jestin Porter under control. Porter, a 6’1” guard for the Blue Raiders, is the reigning Conference USA Player of the Week and has been going off recently. Although he only had 5 points against Jacksonville State Wednesday night, he had 26 points in the Blue Raiders win over New Mexico State and 41 points in their win over UTEP later that same week, going 8-for-8 from distance, rightfully earning the honor of Conference USA Player of the Week award. Porter also had 18 points against the Hilltoppers when Middle Tennessee played in Bowling Green and when you look at his stats, he can definitely light it up on his home court in Murfreesboro. With that being said, Western Kentucky’s guards are going to have to make sure they keep him in check for 40 minutes, or else it could be a long night for the Hilltoppers.
WKU is also going to need to get Teagan Moore going. Teagan, a 6’5” guard for the Hilltoppers, is the reigning Conference USA Freshman of the Week, and he has been playing lights out recently. He had a career high of 16 points in the Hilltoppers’ win over UTEP and led the Hilltoppers in scoring with 12 points in their win over New Mexico State later that same week. Teagan is more than capable of explosive minutes off of the bench. Although he is capable of catching fire from distance, his main method of scoring is taking it to the hole and either laying it up or drawing a foul, sometimes both! Teagan can have a huge impact in this game if the Hilltoppers are able to give him some good looks. With his size and unique ability to maneuver his body through contact, Teagan could help snap WKU out of an offensive slump if Middle’s slower pace is befuddling the Hilltoppers.
Lastly, WKU is going to need to protect the perimeter. Middle Tennessee likes to shoot a lot of threes. When these two teams played in Bowling Green, the Blue Raiders shot a total of 42 threes. Although they only made 11 of them, it could go the other way very easily in Murfreesboro. Middle Tennessee has multiple players that are capable of lighting it up from distance and I’m sure they will be a lot more comfortable shooting on their home court. WKU has had stellar three-point defense throughout this year and will need to bring that defense with them down to Murfreesboro if they want to have their best chance of winning.
MTSU
First of all, Middle Tennessee needs to keep Don McHenry under control. Don is a 6’2” guard for the Hilltoppers and has been looking like a real contender for the Conference USA player of the year. He has averaged 17.5 points per game throughout conference play and is more than capable of taking a game over. Don led the Hilltoppers with 22 points (20 in the second half) when these two teams played in Bowling Green and can do it again without skipping a beat. Middle Tennessee’s guards are going to need to come prepared to shut Don McHenry down or it could be a long night for the Blue Raiders. Don singlehandedly outscored Middle for the first several minutes in Bowling Green until his teammates took over. That kind of overwhelming firepower could saddle any prayer of an upset for the Blue Raiders.
The Blue Raiders are really going to have to try to win the paint battle. Last time these two teams played, WKU outscored MTSU 46-16 in the paint. Middle Tennessee’s main focus was trying to shoot threes and they just weren’t falling and instead of trying to get something going towards the basket, they just kept shooting. If they are having trouble hitting shots from outside or having trouble even getting open, which could very well happen with WKU’s great three-point defense, they will need to make some adjustments to try to get the ball inside. Whatever happens, they can’t just keep shooting threes if they aren’t shooting well.
Finally, Middle Tennessee is going to have to crash the boards. Rebounding has been one of WKU’s strengths all year. Western Kentucky is currently ranked 19th in the country at 40.2 rebounds per game and Middle Tennessee is not even close to that at only 35.1 rebounds per game, which is 204th in the country. When these two teams played in Bowling Green, WKU did win the rebound battle,a big reason for WKU winning. Middle Tennessee is going to have to try to find a body and box out because you already know that WKU will be crashing the boards every time someone puts a shot up.
Bonus Key from the Editor: A Couple of Things/People Need to Exceptional
In order to pull off an upset, something has to go differently than the norm. Whether it’s causing WKU problems or it’s exceptional offense or an exceptional performance, Middle probably needs two things to go drastically different for them to win. Pick any two stats and flip them on their head in favor of MTSU and that could spell upset for WKU. If Jestin Porter goes for 40, obviously that helps the blue cause. If MTSU hits 40 percent from three, that’s ten percent better than they’re used to. If a random bench player comes out and goes for 20, that’s something that MTSU could use to pull off an upset. If Don McHenry is held to one point, that’s a good way for a bad team to pull one out. You get the idea. Watch for two big statistical “upsets” to go MTSU’s way. If that happens, watch out, Tops.
Richards’ Expectations and Predictions
Middle Tennessee has had a very frustrating season so far for MTSU fans. They were tied for first in the Conference USA preseason poll but have not performed very well throughout the season. You could say that injuries have a lot to do with their current record, but I think that this Blue Raider team just isn’t as good as everyone thought they would be. For example, WKU was without Jalen Jackson (arguably their best defender who is out for the rest of the season with a broken foot) and Khristian Lander (a starting guard who was out undergoing concussion protocol at the time) for a road trip to Louisiana Tech and Jacksonville State and ended up going 2-0 over the course of those two games. You have to be able to play with the cards you’ve been dealt, and Middle Tennessee just hasn’t been able to do that. You can expect this game to be very intense. After all, it is a rivalry game and both teams have plenty to fight for. Both teams have the ability to turn it on and win this game and I believe that it will come down to whoever wants it more.
My prediction for WKU vs MTSU is going to be 82-67 WKU. Western Kentucky is just rolling right now, and I don’t think that Middle Tennessee has the fire or firepower to be able to stop them. WKU is in the hunt for a regular season conference title and the number one seed for the conference tournament in Hunstville, which will be a huge advantage for the tournament. Middle Tennessee, on the other hand, has sort of turned things around and isn’t looking completely terrible right now, but they still have a lot to figure out and I don’t know if they will have enough time to do so before the season is over, much less before Saturday.
This is also just a bad matchup for MTSU. MTSU struggles to score as a team, and WKU is explosive offensively. MTSU struggles shooting from deep and goes to the three pointer when pressured. WKU overplays on screens and tends to come out to all shooters on switches instead of conservatively passing under screens and allowing open perimeter shooters. MTSU has length, but other than productive 6’10” forward Jared Coleman-Jones does not have significant size that plays and produces. Again, WKU pounds the ball inside and draws fouls, resorting to the three pointer only if penetration doesn’t work. Take your pick, but WKU just answers most every weakness MTSU could possibly expose.
Conclusion
My inner “Western” fan is going to come out a little here so be prepared. WKU is currently third place in Conference USA and still only half a game back from first place, which is currently occupied by Louisiana Tech and Sam Houston State. If WKU wins out, they have a really good chance to be in first place by the time the conference tournament rolls around (They’re guaranteed second if they win out, regardless!).
However, this will not be possible without our support. Steve Lutz has done a tremendous job throughout his first year at WKU and has exceeded all expectations, without a doubt. I don’t think anybody expected WKU to be third place in Conference USA, only half a game back from first place, with four games left this year. Throw in the unfortunate injury of Jalen Jackson and being without Kristian Lander for six games in the middle of conference play, and the results are remarkable.
We’ve said this in other articles and tweets this week, but we need to show up and be loud for this team.
Murfreesboro is only 100 Miles (of Hate) away and we have the chance to paint Murfreesboro red this Saturday. If you have nothing else to do, why not go support this team? Even if you do, cancel it! Your fifth cousin’s 13th wedding anniversary dinner at Freddy’s can wait.
In addition to Saturday’s game, this team really needs us for their last home game next Wednesday, the 28th, against Louisiana Tech. That game will potentially be for first place and could singlehandedly determine WKU’s (and La Tech’s) seed in the tournament. We need to #PackDiddle and BE LOUD because this team really does deserve our support and a packed-out Diddle Arena.
If you’re a student, now is your time to go have a heck of a time supporting the Tops. You want a great college experience? Travel to Middle and pack out the end zone against La Tech.
If you’re an alum and you’ve been to a few games but haven’t been to all of them, this La Tech matchup should be the best atmosphere and best overall ball game of the season.
If you’ve never traveled to see the Tops, watch how awesome Hilltopper Nation really is on the road. We bring it, and you need to be a part of it!
And finally, raise your hand if you’re disappointed in how this season has gone thus far. I see no hands. Exactly. This team deserves your support. They’ve earned it. They are knocking on the door of history, and it’s time to help them kick it in. It’s been 11 years since an NCAA Tournament appearance, folks, and this team feels like one of the most capable teams of actually doing it. There’s no Georgia State or Old Dominion that’s dominated the conference. There’s no North Texas that is playing chess while our coach plays checkers. There’s no weird Marshall-type of weird offense that could give WKU fits.
It’s time to come together and get this thing done. The rest of the season, show up, bring your red towel, and let the streets run Topper Red with the blood of our enemies.
For anyone who is not able to make it to Murfreesboro, the game will be on ESPN+ at 6:30 pm CT. You can also tune into @thetowelrackwku on Twitter/X for build-up, live tweets, and reactions. While you’re at it, go ahead and check out the RedOut Podcast on Twitter/X and on YouTube. As always, we are your #1 source for unfiltered and honest WKU content!