WKU Basketball: Preview for WKU vs Liberty on January 6, 2024
Here's everything you need to know about Western's next home game against Liberty University on January 6.
Overview
On Saturday, January 6, 2024, the preseason Conference USA favorite, Liberty University, will head to Bowling Green to tip off conference play against a very hot WKU team in E.A. Diddle Arena at 5:00 pm CT. Western is coming off of a thrilling comeback win over Abeline Christian, 86-84, and is currently on a 7-game win streak, which is good enough for the 9th longest streak in the country. Liberty, on the other hand, is coming off of a brutal loss of 101-56 to the previous 17th ranked team in the country, Alabama, but bounced back with a win of 88-46 over division II opponent, Boyce. As this is being written, ESPN is favoring Liberty with a 74.9 percent chance to win.
Notable Statistics
WKU Stat Leaders
PPG: Don McHenry-14.9 points per game
RPG: Brandon Newman-6.4 rebounds per game
APG: Don McHenry-2.6 assists per game.
Liberty Stat Leaders
PPG: Kyle Rode-12.9 points per game.
RPG: Joseph Venzant-7.8 rebounds per game.
APG: Zach Cleveland-3.8 assists per game.
WKU Team Stats:
80.4 PPG
44.7% FG
30.2% 3PT
42 RPG
12.9 APG
8 SPG
Liberty Team Stats:
78.3 PPG
48.1% FG
37.7% 3PT
37.1 RPG
17.7 APG
5.5 SPG
Keys to Victory
WKU
Western’s first key to victory is the main reason why they have 11 wins, and that is defensive pressure. Liberty is very capable of catching fire and not cooling down all game. The thing that sets Western apart from other teams is their ability to apply pressure on the defensive end and tire teams down making it hard for their opponents to play a full 40-minute game at maxiumum effort. If Western can bring the same intensity and pressure against Liberty that they’ve had in almost every game so far this season, they will have a very good chance to win.
Secondly, it’s very important for Western to take care of the ball. Western averages 12.9 turnovers per game, which is a one-to-one ratio with assists per game, which is really not good. To be successful in college basketball, you are going to need to have a lot more assists than turnovers. The best way to predict the future is to look at the past. In all three of Western’s losses, they have had more turnovers than assists. With Liberty’s quickness and ability to force turnovers, I can’t see a world where Western comes out on top if they turn the ball over more than they record an assist.
Finally, WKU needs to play for Western Kentucky University. We’ve all heard coach Lutz in the post-game press conferences time and time again say that he’s been preaching to his team that the more we play for each other, the more we will win games. Over the past month, we have seen this come to life. It is certainly hard for college players to be able to buy into a team and play for everyone and not only themselves and when you go out and get basically a brand-new team year-to-year, it’s certainly that much harder. Western’s players are finally starting to click and play team basketball on both ends of the floor, and that is a huge reason why they went undefeated in the month of December and have had their best start since the 2001-2002 season. If they play selfish, individual basketball like we saw in Canada (where WKU recorded two of its three losses), then it could result in a loss for their first conference game in this new-look CUSA.
Liberty
Liberty’s first key to victory is to win the paint battle. Liberty’s bigs are considered very undersized in this day and age of college basketball at only 6’7 compared to Western’s Rodney Howard at 6’11 and Babacar Faye at 6’8. Liberty enters the game averaging only 37.1 rebounds per game compared to Western’s 42. On top of that, Western scores a large majority of their points in the paint and with Liberty not having much size down there, it will be very hard for them to defend against Western’s slashing ability. Holding their own down low will go a long way for the Flames.
Another very important key to winning this game will be for Liberty to get to the free throw line and take advantage. In each of Liberty’s four losses they have shot less free throws and have had a worse free throw percentage than their opponent. With that being said, Western doesn’t foul a whole lot (unless they are facing Murray State). I think if Liberty can get to the foul line and take advantage of their free throws, they will have a good chance to win this game.
Finally, Liberty is going to have to play at their pace. A lot of times, other teams try to speed the game up against Western and play at a faster pace and it doesn’t ever work because Western likes to play fast. You can try to speed the game up all you want but Western is just going to keep going, no matter how quick the pace is. If Liberty can set the tone early and control the pace of this game, then they will have a very good chance to win.
Richards’ Expectations and Predictions
When you have a game between the number one and number two team right now in the conference, you can pretty much throw all the expectations and predictions out the window… but what the heck, let’s do it.
Expectations
I expect this game to be a very competitive game defensively. Western is known for their pulverizing defensive pressure and Liberty holds its opponents to only 61.3 points per game. Although both teams are very capable of catching fire and not cooling down offensively, I think this game is going to be won on the defensive end. Whoever can get more rebounds, create more turnovers, and commit less fouls will come out on top.
Predictions
First of all, both of these teams are very good, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see these two teams facing off in the conference championship in March. With that being said, I think one team is just playing better at the moment. My score prediction is going to be 72-65 WKU. My reasoning for this prediction is, like I said, I think that it is going to be a competitive game defensively and will probably be a lower scoring game. I think that WKU will come out on top because they just seem to be the better team at the moment.
You can say that Liberty has had a way harder schedule and has more talent overall, but you can’t deny that this Western team is playing its best basketball that it’s played all season. They have been improving more and more every single game and that’s why you see the 11-3 record, undefeated month of December, and seven game winning streak.
I think that WKU will dominate the paint because Liberty just doesn’t have enough size to be able to compete down there. This was exposed in Liberty’s game in Boca Raton against FAU when FAU’s two main bigs combined for 27 points and 16 rebounds compared to Libertys main bigs combining for 16 points and 10 rebounds. If by the end of the game, Liberty has more rebounds and points in the paint than Western, I will be very surprised.
Conclusion
Overall, I think this will be a great game and I am super excited to be in Diddle this Saturday to experience it live. You can’t ask for a better way to start conference play than for the number one team hosting the number two team, on a Saturday night at 5:00 pm, and with hopefully an electric, packed-out Diddle Arena. It’s the most wonderful time of the year and everyone needs to show up and be hyped because this game is, without a doubt, going to be exciting.