WKU Basketball Roundtable: What Is Your Prediction for the Tops in Huntsville?

Roundtable time! We want to know what everybody's thinking. We all have different opinions...How does our staff feel heading into Thursday's matchup

Western Kentucky Basketball is a special program and brings a special atmosphere around it in March, even in years when WKU Basketball is not at its best.

Well, it’s that time of year, and yes, this WKU team has had an up-and-down year. The Tops started out piping hot, cooled off in Canada, started well in CUSA, lost a few road games, went on a streak where they looked like CUSA’s best, and have now lost four in a row despite losing not a one of the previous four by more than seven points.

A razor’s edge separates Conference USA Basketball, and WKU has felt that razor of late. However, as you’ll be able to tell from our staff’s predictions, there are plenty in Bowling Green believing WKU can still get it done.

Much of that has to do with the job WKU Head Coach Steve Lutz has done in his first year on The Hill. After Rick Stansbury *ahem* (sorry I’ve had the flu) “resigned” from WKU, Steve Lutz has done nothing but do a good job.

At 19-10 (8-8 CUSA), WKU has at times exceeded expectations. Many at WKU would have been ok with a .500 or so record in Steve Lutz’ first season. Some said 20 wins would be par. Some thought we could see a little more than 20. Well, WKU has essentially put itself in a spot to meet or exceed all of those despite dropping four in a row at the end to mar what was an absolutely shining overall record.

WKU finds itself falling backwards onto an outright three seed at a .500 conference record, a bizarre result for a team third best in its conference. However, in a conference where home court ruled, most teams (besides La Tech and Sam Houston) fell prey to surprising setbacks on the road.

Well, now there are no road teams, and no team is waltzing over from their dorm rooms at a “neutral” site, either. The closest program to Huntsville is MTSU (slightly less than two hours away), followed by Jacksonville State (slightly more than two hours), and then WKU follows up in a fairly close third (slightly less than three hours away).

Will distance and fan travel make a difference? Ask FIU if it ever makes a difference. They have had some good teams and have rarely made a championship appearance, and I would argue it’s significant to note that Panthers fans rarely travel to their own arenas.

Sam Houston State seems the most likely winner, pulling away from the rest of CUSA despite everyone expecting them to fade to average all conference season. They never did, and it’s been incredibly impressive! La Tech is probably Conference USA’s overall best team, but the next batch of real contenders would have to contain teams like WKU, Liberty, UTEP, and MTSU. Perhaps Jax State should also be included, but they have to face FIU in the 8/9 matchup and have to win an extra game in there while having to run through Sam Houston. Update: They lose. New Mexico State is the only other team not mentioned yet, and they would likely fall under most people’s bottom tier of contenders. However, they have quality wins and have really been a decent team all season despite a new coach and a new roster.

Predictions

Matt McCay-WKU Makes Finals, Beats Liberty in Epic Rubber Match

The more I break down the prospect of Conference USA Basketball Tournament, the more I get excited. This brings back memories, and I’m FINALLY going back for a full tournament, and the Tops have a real shot at it. Despite the four game losing streak (ignore it), I have felt great about this team all along.

I’ve been to a few SBC Tournament games at WKU, saw Courtney Lee score double digits with a broken hand in the championship at Middle in 2006. I went to Hot Springs every year from 2009-13, went to New Orleans in ‘15, went to women’s championship games in Birmingham, and went to my last full tournament in 2019 with a less-than-one-year-old in tow. Mysteriously, nine months later, our second daughter was born. Whatever happened in Frisco stayed in Frisco, baby.

I’ve screamed on the couch at Ty Rogers’ shot, and I’ve been in person to I believe five WKU NCAA Tournament games. I’ve been to seven other NCAA Tournament games, I believe. We can count eight if the end of a game in Portland counted. Anyway, I’m a junkie, and this an opportunity to go have some fun and cheer on the Tops.

That being said, I’ve felt this team had something special to it all year, and I’m not backing off of it. I trust in Steve Lutz. WKU has the most weapons in Conference USA, with nine players scoring 6 or more points per game. WKU is arguably the deepest team in CUSA, going a legit ten deep. They will sometimes go 11 deep if both centers get in foul trouble and throw in a BJ Marable for some emergency minutes.

I believe New Mexico State is about as good of a matchup as WKU could ask for. NMSU found a way back from 23 down vs. WKU in Las Cruces, but that only gives WKU the motivation to make sure that doesn’t happen again. WKU should be able to keep NMSU in the 60s or less and be able to win an easy first round game, a big key considering they have to turn around and face either a well rested MTSU or La Tech on less than 16 hours’ rest. It is super crucial for WKU to take care of business against NMSU and get off of their feet.

Obviously the semifinals will be a tough test, but I believe WKU will find a way on a neutral court against a team with less big-time talent. Liberty will be waiting for WKU in the finals. I have thought highly of Liberty all season, and they are CUSA’s second or third overall team in terms of full body of work. Liberty is well-coached with a roster full of guys that will bring their lunch pail. I also believe a team like Liberty that can shoot the lights out and “outsystem” you can give a team like SHSU that plays physical all kinds of fits. SHSU could bludgeon LU for 28 seconds and the Flames could create a wide open look, or they could have a spurt where they just don’t miss. SHSU has had some games where they just weren’t that good offensively and relied on their defense. Sometimes your defense isn’t enough. I also don’t mind JSU against Sam Houston, so I’m kind of hedging my bets and predicting LU to the finals because I think Sam Houston has one of the tougher paths to a CUSA championship despite earning the top seed.

In the finals, I can’t decide if WKU win by 45 or if it’s a barn burner and WKU wins on a buzzer beater. I don’t really care. I just know WKU wins, and we’re cutting down nets in Huntsville, baby.

Casey Richards-Tops Find a Way, Beat Sam Houston in the Finals

Being the youngest of this group, this is my first time going to the conference tournament when the Tops have a real chance of winning a championship. I have been to Frisco the past two years and while it was fun, it probably wasn’t worth it to drive 13 hours to see the men’s team lose in the first round against Louisiana Tech in 2022 and lose in the second round to an eventual final four team in FAU in 2023. I did get to see the women’s team play in the championship last year though, which was a really great experience, even though we lost. This time around, however, I feel is potentially the year that we win it all and I will finally be able to go to another NCAA tournament game. The only NCAA tournament game I’ve been to was in 2012 against the kitty cats, who eventually won the national championship, and I was only in fourth grade! So now that I’ve grown up a little, there’s nothing more that I want than to see the Tops going dancing again.

Now, what do I think about this year’s tournament? First of all, Conference USA has been nothing but awesome to watch all year. It seems like just about any team can beat any team and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some major upsets in this year’s tournament. Every team has looked good at some point throughout the conference season. All year, Sam Houston and Louisiana Tech have looked like the best two teams in the conference without a doubt, but they have both had their slumps and both are beatable teams. As of late, UTEP has really found something and has been playing their best basketball to close the conference season winning their last three games with two of those being at Jacksonville State and at Liberty.

As for WKU, I think that we got the most favorable draw that we could’ve received. We should have beaten New Mexico State twice, but we ended up blowing a 23-point lead in the second half in Las Cruces. However, we got our revenge in Bowling Green. If we win in the first round, we play the winner of Louisiana Tech and Middle Tennessee. We also went 1-1 with those two teams and really should’ve beaten both of them twice. Both of those losses were a part of our four-game losing streak to end the season. However, I do think that we will be playing much better in Huntsville and a win over New Mexico State will give this team a lot of confidence going into the second round. After that, we will most likely be looking at Sam Houston in the championship, who we lost to two times but both games were separated by just one possession.

WKU has the ability to beat anyone in this conference if they fix what has led them to this four-game losing streak. Their main problem has been their three-point defense. If the Tops can’t guard the three like they were earlier in the season, I feel very doubtful that they will even make it to the championship. It has been the obvious cause of every loss throughout the final couple of weeks to end the season. If they can fix the three-point defense, I really like their chances against any team in Conference USA.

Steve Lutz, in my opinion, has done an amazing job in his first year on The Hill. He had to bring in eight transfers and also brought in two freshmen, one of them being a walk-on that has ended up contributing real minutes. This WKU team is very well coached and has the ability to beat any team that is on the other side of the court. We have the talent and discipline to do so. He has done nothing but win championships throughout his head coaching career, so he clearly knows what it takes to win it all come tournament time. Two years ago, he was able to win three games in three days while having to face the one and two seed. If he’s done it once, he can do it again.

As for my prediction for the Conference USA Tournament, I believe that the Tops will get it done. I feel like there will be some big upsets throughout the tournament, but WKU will ultimately get back where they belong, which is on top of the conference. It’s going to be tough winning three games in three days, but I believe that this Hilltopper team can and will do it.

GO TOPS!

David McCay-I Don’t Know How But WKU Wins It All

Are the Tops favored? No. Can they win games? Yes. Can they win it all? Yes. Will they? I do not know, but I have hope. WKU has been nothing other than inconsistent, inconsistent from game to game, half to half, moment to moment. That has been the entire CUSA season across the board really, maybe except La Tech and Sam Houston. The team that is most consistent over these 5 days will win.

My first WKU game was in the “Old Barn” at the top of the hill, now Helms-Cravens library. I was in a stroller in the student section. I have always attended WKU sporting events. My parents had friends that were WKU professors and they gave us their tickets as I grew up. My mom and I attended the Wendy’s Classic every year while I was at BGJHS and BGHS in the 80s. So I have not only seen great WKU teams, but great teams and players from around the country in Diddle Arena.

My parents took me to conference tournaments in KY and TN, when we were in the OVC. I attended many tournaments while I was a student from 1985-1987, 1992-1995, and 2007-2008. My wife and I followed our son to tournaments while he was at Western playing in the pep band.

I have a Red Towel that Clem Haskins gave me while he was head coach that will be with me this week. I just want the TOPS to do something that has been missing for the past 12 years.

So I’m going with my gut hoping that WKU pulls everything together with a little luck, magic, prayers, and blessings to piss off CUSA and win the whole thing, starting with an anger fueled trouncing of New Mexico State 90-65.

Bret Combest-Tops Go on a Revenge Tour, Beat Sam Houston in the Finals

Give me near chalk, but that non-chalk is WKU beating La Tech and Sam Houston. All day, Tops! I don’t care about the last four. It’s about the next three. Tops get revenge on SHSU in the finals.

Jacob Gary-Tops Hold Their Own, Fall in Semis

All in all, it is hard to say that this season wasn’t an encouraging first year for Coach Lutz. Sure, the Tops have had some disappointing games down the final stretch. Teams seem like they have learned to get physical with us as a way to knock us off our game, while also learning that we don’t guard the three-point line very well. So, they get big and rain shots from deep, and we’ve been hard pressed to find an answer for it. But it is basically the start of a new season in tournament play. If Don McHenry finds a way to get going again, and the Tops lock up on defense, I find no reason they can’t make a run at this thing.

The major players standing in the Tops way are La Tech and Sam Houston. Liberty is up there too, but they don’t scare me as much as the other two despite the Tops playing them very closely in their two games (5 point difference combined). I think in a grudge match, the Tops will find a way. Sam Houston is scary to me because last time the Tops played them, the Tops lost after having multiple collapses. That sort of game can hang over a team. La Tech is a very physical team with a solid rim protector. They also are able to shoot the three and score very well. La Tech probably worries me the most.

So what do I expect of the Tops? Honestly, they haven’t been very good lately. I definitely expect them to win their first round matchup. I think everyone does. I’d label it a must win game for Lutz to fulfill expectations, which have risen for him throughout the season. Sadly, with the way the Tops are playing, I think that if they meet La Tech in the Friday matchup… That’ll be the end for their tournament run. I’d never root for a team like MTSU, but if there is ever a time the Tops need them to win, it is in the first round. They are ten point underdogs though so don’t get your hopes up.

Tops lose out in the semifinals, and are able to hang their hat on a decent start to Lutz’s coaching career, which was better than anyone expected I think.

Alex Sherfield

Whew. Where do we start?

I firmly believe that the Tops will find a way to extend their stay in Huntsville this week. It all starts with New Mexico State. Now, the #3 seed that WKU received in the C-USA Tournament, somehow worked in our favor. The Tops finished in the top four teams of the conference, but in a year where Louisiana Tech & Sam Houston are the projected favorites to go dancing next week, it still evens itself out.

In three different scenarios with NMSU & MTSU/Louisiana Tech, the Tops have already split the season series with all three teams. IF the Tops get past Friday afternoon, I think our chances are golden due to a couple of tidbits.

One, how is our rotation? WKU’s leading scorer Don McHenry has not had a game where he’s led the team in points since Feb. 15 versus UTEP. On other nights, Teagan Moore has emerged as a guy who not only comes in off the bench to grind out some minutes, but can take over the game if needed. Babacar Faye & Enoch Kalambay have been rebounding aces over the last few games, usually splitting the work and making for exploiting matchups while grabbing the boards. Rodney Howard, Khristian Lander, Brandon Newman, & Tyrone Marshall will be relied on more to not only play physically when needed but spearhead some much-needed sequences if Moore, McHenry, or even Dontaie Allen can’t get the shots to go.

Second, I am confident in the experience that Steve Lutz has in conference tournament situations like the current one. Even during his tenure at Texas A&M- Corpus Christi, he still managed to lead the team to consecutive NCAA Tournament experiences. Even with the roster that we have, the players and their skill sets, it all comes down to how you coach during a postseason stretch where any game can be your last one.

I think that when you add both of these factors together, mixed with a bit of magic, the Tops might just have a good chance of winning the whole thing. But worst case scenario, I can see the men sneaking a shocker of an appearance in the conference tournament final, falling valiantly to the likes of Sam Houston.