WKU Basketball Roundtable: What is Your Prediction for the 2024 Conference USA Men's Basketball Championship Game?

WKU has had an improbably fortunate path to a finals appearance, and the team they face upset two higher seeded teams to get here. UTEP is playing great, but WKU has utterly dominated in Huntsville.

We have waited three years to even have a chance, and we have waited 11 LONGGGGGG years to finally break through this decade+ of frustration. It is time for Western Kentucky to bust through.

Since WKU’s last tourney appearance in 2013, WKU has had three fairly recent championship appearances, all under Rick Stansbury, but WKU arguably found ways to lose in games that were expected to be fairly close. WKU was a decent favorite against Marshall in 2018, a one point dog vs. Old Dominion in 2019, and a 1.5 point favorite against North Texas in 2021.

WKU played Marshall’s game in 2018, cranking it from outside and still nearly beating the Herd despite a nonsense level lack of execution. Against Old Dominion, WKU was in it but never really had control, with ODU getting it done in a pretty close game. That was the most excusable. Then WKU started down 17-0 against UNT, came back fairly quickly for the size of the hole, took a near double digit lead, melted that down, and then absolutely tanked it before overtime. Then Rick Stansbury got outcoached in overtime.

There’s a lot of hurt there, and the odds simply tell you in a 50/50 matchup in all three games that WKU only had about a shade over ten percent chance that they would lose all three. In other words, WKU was almost certain to get one of those, and it just didn’t happen.

So as a fan base, Hilltopper Nation brings that baggage. However, this is Western Kentucky, one of the seven programs in the country that have 48 20 win seasons. WKU has 22 all-time NCAA Tournament appearances, making the Sweet 16 six times. A Final Four in 1971 caps off the resume. This is a proud basketball school, and there is also that historical expectation.

Saturday at 7:30, WKU gets the Miners of UTEP. UTEP is the top team in the country at forcing live ball turnovers, meaning they’re always in it. The interesting matchup dilemma for WKU is that WKU’s pace (80+ ppg) feeds into UTEP’s propensity to steal the ball. By playing fast, WKU increases their mistakes and gives more possessions for potential live ball turnovers.

UTEP is a five seed, but the Miners come in piping hot, having won five games in a row. They also have some practice in close games lately, having needed two comebacks to get to this point, slightly upsetting Liberty in the quarterfinals Thursday and shocking Conference USA by beating top seeded Sam Houston State, who had a firm handle on the game and let it slip through their fingertips.

WKU’s path has been as mathematically easy as possible no matter how you slice it. Facing the six seed (NMSU), the seven seed (MTSU), and the five seed (UTEP) is the third easiest possible road, and the only possibly easier road according to seeding would have been if the eight or nine seed had made it all the way to the finals. UTEP took care of Sam Houston and Liberty, both of which were considered favorites to win the title over WKU. Lousiana Tech was the massive favorite to win the whole tournament, but MTSU took care of them. WKU was the fourth favorite in the bracket and will face zero of those teams. In fact, NMSU and MTSU were considered less dangerous than even eight seed Jacksonville State.

It’s the dream draw, even if UTEP is piping hot. Who’s more piping hot in America than WKU since conference tournament play began? WKU has won two games by an average of over 25 points against opponents they were less than ten point favorites. Yes, they were supposed to win, but absolutely no one should expect anyone to blow someone out when the chips are down. No one in CUSA has been that superior to everyone else, and especially since the two main leaders in the standings were knocked out.

Predictions

Matt McCay

I mean…could it have gone any better so far? People who like a challenge must be frustrated, because so far it’s been easy street, baby! And I’m totally ok with it. There’s nothing like stomping on a rival by over 30 when it’s win or go home. WKU’s path has been as easy as possible, and the bench has played tons of minutes. Despite Dontaie Allen’s knee injury most likely keeping him out, WKU still has plenty of depth and may not need him. In fact, when WKU played UTEP, Dontaie was not his best, only averaging seven points, 2.5 rebounds, and 2.5 turnovers. Not to say Dontaie Allen not being an option is a good thing, but perhaps if you were to pick one starter to be out, maybe he would be it for this matchup.

With all of that being said, this is WKU’s tournament to win, and frankly it’s been that way since MTSU beat La Tech. The path has been paved. Now the Tops just have to walk upon it to The Promised Land. There’s no question in my mind what should happen. It may not happen. It’s so hard to win three games in a row, especially against good teams. Then again, UTEP has had to do the same thing, and they have played less players more intensely. WKU has not remotely had game pressure in two games, having its bench produce more than its starters.

There’s no way I’m picking anyone but WKU. Do I think it will be another blowout? No. But I think WKU controls the whole thing and wins handily. I think UTEP will wear out late, and WKU will go on a run, and it will be over from there. UTEP will fight valiantly, but WKU is going to be strategic, possibly pressing UTEP to create some havoc in their favor, wearing out the eager defenders of UTEP by making life difficult on offense. I like WKU to keep pouring it on while UTEP stagnates in the low 70s. I say WKU gets it done 87-73. Tops cut down the nets in Huntsville, and I will be a weeping pile of Topper mess. GO TOPS!!!!

Casey Richards

The moment we have all been waiting for is finally here. We have a great chance to win the Conference USA Tournament Championship and punch our ticket to the NCAA Tournament! This season has been full of ups and downs, but it all comes down to this game.

Throughout the tournament, WKU has been electric on both sides of the court, but it all starts on the defensive side of the ball. We pushed our defense beyond the three point line to add some pressure on the opposing offense, which messes up their entire flow. This is the reason we saw a low number of three-point attempts from New Mexico State and a poor three-point percentage from Middle Tennessee and as you know with this team, great defense turns into great offense. When we have that sort of intensity on the defensive end, it creates a lot of turnovers and bad shots for the opposing offense and we are able to get out in transition for some quick fast-break points.

Both fanbases are starving for an NCAA tournament berth and it will finally come for one of these teams. As of this year, Western Kentucky has been solid all throughout conference play, while having some lapses and finishing very poorly towards the end of the conference season. However, they seemed to have turned it around and they are playing the best basketball that they have played all year, which is what you look for at this time of the season. UTEP is also playing their best basketball. They are currently riding a five-game winning streak and have just knocked of the number one seed in the Conference USA tournament. Both teams have a ton of momentum heading into this game, but it is going to come down to whoever can ride that momentum and grind out this game. Both teams will be playing their third game in three days so you know that they will be a little worn out, but I don’t expect any player on the court to hold anything back. Both teams want it so bad and it is definitely going to be a fun one.

For the Conference USA tournament finals, I am going to predict 79-68 WKU. Western Kentucky is playing the best basketball they have played all season and they look like far and away the best team in the conference. UTEP is a solid team and I know nobody will believe this, but I penciled in UTEP in the finals against Western Kentucky! However, I don’t think that the Miners are going to have enough fire power to pull this one off. If Western Kentucky continues playing the way that they have been, it will be very hard for UTEP to pull off another upset.

David McCay

The keys to the wins that I have noticed so far in this years CUSA tournament: Feeding energy off the WKU crowd and ignoring the opponents, sharing the ball, playing full blast 40 minutes, being aggressive getting to the rim (+drawing fouls), limiting turnovers, not relying on three pointers (letting 3’s be in the flow of the game), best defense of the year, exploiting a team’s weakness, and hustle, hustle, hustle.

WKU must continue with similar play as they have done the last two games and “Be the aggressor”. WKU’s defense must disrupt UTEP’s flow and spacing. When UTEP has controlled play in their two games, they mounted comebacks, allowing them to win both games. Western could add a little press to its game today to cause disruption and add some easy baskets or extra fouls. UTEP’s last appearance in NCAA Tournament was 2010, so they are hungry too. Lest fans think WKU is the only starving school in this contest, UTEP is a proud school with a national championship. Several recent decades of mediocrity mar the greatness of the early days of Texas Western AKA UTEP. UTEP is the #1 turnover generating team in NCAA, and those must be kept under control by Western. UTEP will be aggressive in the paint. WKU must play limited fouling, aggressive defense.

I believe in my heart that Western and its fans will be partying all the way to Selection Sunday, WKU 92 - UTEP 82. I will take pictures of my son, Matt, crying. Then I’ll join him.

Bret Combest

The Tops are going to to do this! Tops take care of the ball, they play great defense, and they win by 12. WKU played its bench, and UTEP has played two games where they didn’t get to mess around. I think that catches up with UTEP, and we’re cutting down nets tonight in Huntsville. The crowd is going to pull WKU through. I’ve been to a bunch of these tournaments. They’ve been fun, but a lot of them, we’ve lost. Not tonight! Tops by 12.

For anyone that is not able to make it to Huntsville, the game will be on CBS Sports Network at 7:30 pm CT. You can also tune into @thetowelrackwku on Twitter/X for build-up, live tweets, and reactions. While you’re at it, go ahead and check out the RedOut Podcast on Twitter/X and on YouTube. RedOut will be tweeting some updates, as well and responding to the action. They are also our video content guys. As always, we are your #1 source for unfiltered and honest WKU content!