WKU Basketball Roundtable: Who is Your Final Four? How Far Does WKU Go in the 2024 NCAA Tournament?
Once again, we ask the opinions of our staff on WKU's chances, but this time, it's a little bigger than just a CUSA Championship.
Western Kentucky is in the Big Dance for the first time in 11 seasons. WKU fans everywhere are filling out their “Western bracket” and picking the Tops to win it all, but is that realistic? Several of us think the Tops could make a run, especially if the Tops can find a way against a really good team in Marquette.
In this roundtable, we just want to know who our writers think make the Final Four, and how far does WKU make it in to this tournament?
We’ll try to remove the homerism, but honestly, throw us a bone. It’s been a while, and that performance by WKU in the CUSA Tournament has Topper fans believing. Looking back, WKU had one game that was completely out of reach, and every other game was either hard fought and close, or WKU had an outright legitimate lead and lost it.
WKU is much better than its record. How would that affect numbers and seeding if WKU had, say six or seven losses? Who knows? But WKU is not your typical 15 seed. WKU has size, depth, and eight or so players that can fill up a stat sheet on any given night.
WKU’s greatest weakness would probably be considered turnovers, with another couple weaknesses being three point defensive rotations, scoring depth in the post, and lack of focus.
One of Western’s great strengths would be guard and wing play, with several players that can drive the ball to the basket and draw fouls or make tough interior buckets. Another would be extraordinary pace, as in the very fastest pace in the country, getting shots off on an average of about 15 seconds a possession. Western is also very balanced, with nine players scoring between 15.2 and 6.2 points per game.
Marquette is a team most WKU fans will have to be introduced to, but this team is no slouch. They have played an absolutely murderous schedule, losing nine games, but all of them to legitimate competition, truly earning a two seed and earning the distinct pressure of being a national title contender. Marquette features three main scorers, who combine for about 46 points per game, but David Joplin also provides double digit scoring most nights. Marquette’s actual scoring generally comes from those four guys, whereas WKU’s comes from different people on different nights.
Marquette’s weaknesses would be mainly rebounding and fouling. They foul more and rebound significantly less than their opponents. With WKU a top flight team in the country in rebounding, perhaps WKU could take advantage in this area.
It’s an uphill battle, but knowing WKU and its potential, anything can happen Friday.
Predictions
Matt McCay
At the risk of being a homer, I’m going to pick WKU to make it a few rounds in the NCAA Tournament. I believe WKU is hungry, I believe Western brings a good chunk of red to Indy, and I think Marquette won’t take WKU seriously enough and will fall asleep on WKU, while WKU will pounce. I like WKU to the Sweet 16, and I for dang sure am not picking the Tops to lose to the Kitty Kats in the Sweet 16. Therefore, I’ve got WKU making it all the way to the Elite 8 (for only the second time in school history, by the way) and losing to Houston.
Therefore, my four Final Four teams would start with Houston and then Purdue, Iowa State, and Alabama round out the Final Four. Iowa State has been piping hot and gets a draw that could easily see some upsets, including prohibitive national favorite UCONN getting knocked out. If that happened, I like Iowa State, and I like Alabama, because I think they’re in a bracket with a lot of realistic upsets, and they may benefit from a few upsets making their path a little easier. I really like Alabama’s offense to help them overcome some issues defensively.
Alex Sherfield
It’s been a fever dream of a week that a lot of Hilltopper fans are still not wanting to wake up from. Coupled with another feasible drive from campus to Indianapolis, it’s a huge advantage in comparison to Marquette. In recent years, the fabled 15th seed beating a 2nd seed scenario (Princeton, Saint Peter’s, Oral Roberts) has encouraged the Tops’ chances on Friday afternoon and created a significant amount of national attention as they have some potential to be “the next giant killer”.
However, no matter the path that’s being taken with the potential future matchups, it will not be easy.
The Golden Eagles finished second in the Big East, a league that’s remained strong over the blue blood conferences, including UConn as a favorite to repeat as national champs.
Now, if the Tops do the unthinkable & make The Round of 32, the road runs through a tenacious Florida team who had a strong year in SEC play, getting road wins in Kentucky and defeating Alabama twice, including in a final four run of the SEC Tournament. Then again, Colorado, after a win in the play in game against Boise State, may have one shining moment of their own in a battle of the 7th & 10th seeds.
I’m willing to be bold with my prediction as it’s honestly too good to be true but it’s worth all of the nerves. I’m predicting that WKU makes it to the second round of the tourney, coming short against Florida/Colorado as deeper bench experience will be the catalyst for the potential outcomes.
I’m also looking for a huge performance from Don McHenry, a Milwaukee native who’s up against his hometown basketball program. Also, I believe that Khristian Lander & Teagan Moore are going to give Marquette some fits in the front court.
(No Final Four pick)
Casey Richards
First off, let me just say how crazy this season has been. There have been so many upsets and surprises throughout the season and if you somehow manage to pick a perfect bracket this year, you deserve the world. As for me, I have Iowa State vs Michigan State and Houston vs Creighton in the Final Four. I believe that Iowa State and Houston will both win and face off for the fourth time this season in the finals. Both of those teams are the two best defensive teams in the country and when I have watched them throughout the season, it doesn’t look like anyone really compares. Now who do I think will win? I chose Iowa State. The Cyclones just look unstoppable right now. With their performance in the Big 12 tournament, I would really be surprised to see them gone early. They just look like too tough of a team for anyone to beat.
As for Western Kentucky vs Marquette in the first round of the 2024 NCAA tournament, I am going to go with 79-75 WKU. I know I know, call me a homer all you want, but I believe in Steve Lutz and this WKU team. I believe that this is the year that WKU will be back in the conversation as a household name when it comes to college basketball. I could very well be wrong, and there’s a good possibility that I am, but anything can happen in March, and I know how much this Hilltopper team wants to win. On top of that, Marquette seems to be a favorable matchup for Western Kentucky. I believe that Steve Lutz will know how to exploit the poor rebounding out of the Golden Eagles and will be able to take advantage of Kolek with this being his first game back since February. As I said before, anything can happen in March, and I can’t wait to watch it all unfold in Indianapolis!
David McCay
Anyone can beat anyone in this tournament. I believe UConn will probably prevail again pending the disaster of meeting a team that you do not match up well with. I have not looked at their path yet.
As for WKU, I have looked at their path, but I do not see any truly scary teams in their path other than the possibility of Houston in the Elite Eight. WKU is a team, staff, and fan base that is hungry. Over the past week they have proven they can survive a conference three day tournament and finally win a CUSA Basketball Championship.
What does WKU need to do to move on in the tournament?
Play the tough defense like they did in CUSA Tournament.
Staff find opponent weaknesses and team exploit it.
Take the ball inside and draw fouls like they did in Huntsville.
Be the aggressor and get the opponents in foul trouble. This forces their weaker players onto the court, where there is significant drop off at certain positions, especially when evaluatin Marquette.
Take good shots. High percentage shooting will break the other team’s back at some point.
Be positive, be encouraging, and believe you can do good things working as a team. Five players pulling together is like fingers clenching into a fist: Much stronger than individual digits.
Leave the officials alone. Let the coaches ask the questions. Turn and walk away from aggressive actions that will get you in trouble. Just overcome. Give the officials no reason to call a technical foul. Ultimately, focus on what is important.
Just beat the crap out of everyone. GO TOPS!!!
(No Final Four pick)
Jacob Gary
Is anyone tired of hearing UCONN to win it all? That is also who I have. It was tempting to roll with Houston, but I think they could get upset by UK. Purdue was also a tempting pick for me too. I mean, last time a 1 seed got beat by a 16 seed, they won it all the very next year!
My Final Four pick: UCONN, UK, Purdue, North Carolina. Had to pick the teams with star power.
Now on to why you guys are really here - What do I think Western Kentucky can accomplish? Truly the sky is the limit. The last three years, a 15 or 16 seed has won a game. The Tops will need everyone back and healthy. We’ll need to sink a lot of threes as well to keep up with Marquette. I also think the Tops will have to play the best perimeter defense they have played all year just to keep up with their opponents. I think the Tops are definitely capable of beating the 14.5 spread. But winning is going to be tough. They are a 2 seed for a reason. Draft Kings did give me a no sweat bet for a double digit seed team to win (I get my money back if they lose - hence the name no sweat) and you guys already know who I put it on.
Either way, Tops are back in the dance. I’m excited. And I hope this no sweat bet turns into some money when the Tops go out there and shock the world. Hopefully.
Conclusion
Well, I don’t think we could sum it any better than the scientific analysis from David “Papa” McCay:
“Just beat the crap out of everyone.”
Well, if the Tops do that, by golly I do think they’ll win.
It’s an exciting time for WKU Basketball. Join in on the madness! Get your tickets to Indy, and let’s paint Pacers’ country Western Kentucky red.
As always, GO TOPS!
For anyone that is not able to make it to Indianapolis, the game will be on TBS at 1:00 pm CT. You can also tune into @thetowelrackwku on Twitter/X for build-up, live tweets, and reactions. While you’re at it, go ahead and check out the RedOut Podcast on Twitter/X and on YouTube. RedOut will be tweeting some updates, as well and responding to the action. They are also our video content guys. As always, we are your #1 source for unfiltered and honest WKU content!