WKU Basketball: Should Dayvion Stay(vion)?
Dayvion McKnight has entered the NCAA Transfer Portal, but will he transfer, or should he ride it out with the Tops?
In modern college basketball, it is virtually impossible to keep good players, or really any players for the duration of their eligibility. When your coach leaves (for any reason), even back in the day, it was a toss-up. These days, it feels like an inevitability that your roster will be gutted. Well, Western Kentucky is in that boat somewhere. The question is, “Where is that boat?”
Now, WKU has made a great hire, and it looks like some pieces are actually likely to stay (several players attended Steve Lutz’ opening press conference, for example). The biggest piece up in the air is the longest tenured, most decorated player on the team, Dayvion McKnight.
We can believe in new WKU Head Coach Steve Lutz while also saying it would be silly to say Dayvion McKnight is not a huge piece in the potential speed at which Coach Lutz could bring WKU back to national prominence. McKnight is a bona fide prospect with national interest. The moment he hit the portal, he started getting traffic. He’s gotten offers from upper level Group of Five programs and even a couple of legitimate blue bloods interested in his services. Most of the teams listed on various sites are Power Five Programs.
First of all, if Dayvion goes the way of Tolu Smith and lands softly at a Power Five program, becomes All-Conference, nearly averages a double-double, and gets drafted, good for him. I think we should all be happy for him.
But the question for us is, “Is the grass greener on the other side?”
We’ve all heard that phrase. We’ve all made moves and regretted them. There are plenty of horror stories. There are plenty of people who transferred and wished they hadn’t. There are plenty of coaches and players alike who have left Western over the years and have not gone on to more success, made more money, or gotten more visibility. Many deeply regret those shortsighted decisions. Jordan Rawls, ironically enough, is one of those players, and once again, he is in the transfer portal again considering leaving the Tops. He left the first time and immediately regretted his decision. He came back, at the time realizing Western was probably his best spot with the most favor with the most upside potential. Now he is testing the waters again, this time because of the coaching change. It’s understandable, but hopefully good decisions are made all-around the program.
I think Western fans don’t generally come from a place of selfishness on this issue. It’s more frustrated indignation. It’s experience. We’ve seen this movie before. Name the players. Name the coach. This has happened throughout Western history. The list is long. And the recent list of mistakes is long, as well. “Imagine if _____ had stayed. Where did he end up? What ever happened to him?”
Here’s my question:
Will Dayvion McKnight be more successful at School X than just staying at Western Kentucky?
I would say certainly it depends. One issue, and this is not a knock on him, but facts are facts. When you play in Conference USA, you play a certain caliber of player, but clearly judging by the fact that C-USA still has several teams active in postseason tournaments, the competition was excellent this season.
However, when you go to a “bigger” school, the bodies are bigger, too. I’m just thinking strategically and logically here. If you go to a school that has 1 & 2 guards that are all 6’4” and you’re 6’1”, how much do you have to overcome to become “the guy” or even become “a guy” in that situation?
I had a band director tell me one time after I missed the cut to be last in this one group, “Sometimes it’s better to rule in hell than serve in heaven.” Although I wouldn’t classify Western remotely as hell, the point is sometimes the opportunity lies in simply being able to showcase yourself. You may perceive one location to be “less than”, but ultimately, what opportunity does it render you. Look at FAU. They are showcasing themselves right now on a national stage. If Johnell Davis played for LSU, would he be standing out as a future pro prospect on the national scale, or would he be an anonymous name on an anonymous roster that didn’t even have a winning record?
And I know if I make this argument to any college basketball player with any kind of pulse of course, they’re going to look at that more as a challenge than something that deters them. However, I would encourage really any athlete that is looking at making a decision, “What are my goals, and where do I fit in this puzzle?” Also, “What am I being told and sold, and does that make sense with the big picture? Are they telling me the complete truth?” Because Dayvion could be sold a bill of goods, some big school could throw a bag at him, and he could ride the bench, never see the floor, and he would never make the NBA. Does he want the bag now, or does he see the bigger bag coming later by staying put?
Conversely, he could stay at Western, be an absolute beloved legend, ride off into the sunset with a ring and some tournament wins, get drafted, and have a brilliant NBA career. The path at Western is way more likely to yield that fruit, and there are so many more options and opportunities at WKU than there are at a Power Five school that will wash you away as soon as you graduate. No rafters. No all-time leading anything. Less career earnings as a pro.
What is Davy’s goal? Does he want to make the NBA? Because he has a legitimate shot if he plays his cards right here at WKU. If his goal is to make the NBA, let’s go with what we know…
If he Stayvion McKnights for the 2023-24 season, he will first of all be not only guaranteed to start, but he will likely be the Preseason Conference USA Player of the Year. He will be THE guy, and Western Kentucky’s chances of immediately being competitive skyrocket. He will start as a draft prospect that scouts will have to keep an eye on from jump.
And yes, I’m sure from the current players’ perspective, Rick Stansbury was their guy. But life doesn’t always work out the way you plan. What do you do with what you’re presented? I challenge anyone to step away from their emotions, frustrations, even building bitterness, and consider your business decision from an unbiased perspective. It sucks that your coach has been let go, but your career hangs in the balance of this decision laid before you.
It is completely and utterly legitimate to argue that Dayvion McKnight should just stay at Western Kentucky!
“You’re crazy! If the man can go play elsewhere and make some cash, let him go!”
Ok sure. If that’s your move, go ahead and go. But what is the end goal? If it’s solely to be guaranteed another few dollars over what WKU might be able to do, sure. Somebody can probably promise something “better” Even if it’s a half million dollars. Guess what? Any NBA rookie minimum contract washes that out and more in one year.
I stand firmly by that fact. Anything anybody can offer you in college pales in comparison to the pros. The more important decision is the long-term one.
Ask Charles Bassey if he should have transferred from WKU. He got drafted at Western because he stuck it out, went at the right time, got a huge contract, and just recently got injured but has at minimum earned guaranteed money from a third contract (he signed a rookie, then two way, then got a bigger re-up deal with the Spurs). I would imagine Charles’ situation makes a great case to stay, and he didn’t even make an NCAA Tournament, nor did he have any national spotlight “shining moments”. He still was drafted and is having success. Imagine success at WKU and getting seen on the national stage.
Without question, if Dayvion McKnight stays, he will be a legend at WKU. He already is one, for Pete’s sake. But by staying, he cements himself on the Mount Rushmore of WKU legends. If he stays and WKU makes a tournament, that puts him way up there. He’s already the highest assister of any 1,000 point scorer in WKU history. Let’s ride this thing out, man. There’s lifetime value in that alone. He could make money off of that status for life. Of all of the situations he could walk into, he will be in the most guaranteed position of prominence with this team and this program that he possibly could be.
Could he go to a Power Five school and shine like he does at WKU? He sincerely might be able to! I’m not going to say he can’t. But again, 1) Is there a situation definitively better than WKU and 2) What is the most important thing?
If a little more immediate money will make everything fine in the world forevermore, fine. Maybe he should take the guaranteed money right now. This is not an article designed to spout lies.
But Western Kentucky, first of all, is making some freakin’ chess moves in the NIL world. Since Red Towel Trust and INFLCR have come on the scene, WKU is now competitive enough to turn some heads. Austin Reed stayed partially because WKU’s donors came together and paid him. Jamarion Sharp and Dayvion both got solid NIL deals from WKU. That money pot is only growing. Is WKU able to offer all of its players a guaranteed $100 million a year? No. But WKU is competent in this area and quickly growing and adapting.
Second of all, Western Kentucky is also the long play. Again, this spot is the most guaranteed spot. Would you rather invest in the stock market and risk it all and possibly completely destroy your chances to make it big? Do you want to be broke at the end of it? Because a few thousand dollars melts when the money stops flowing. Sure, there’s a huge upside. Look at Keyontae Johnson, who considered WKU and decided to go with Kansas State. He’s featured on an Elite 8 team. Good for him. But he also put himself in a good position on the right team and was needed to complete a roster. If Dayvion is in a position battle just to get on the court, that’s not a good enough situation.
But also, look at Mason Brooks and Jahcour Pearson from the football team. Both went to Ole Miss. Both had lesser opportunities at their new spots than just staying at Western. Brooks almost certainly would have been an All-American and probably would have gotten drafted at Western. The way he was projecting, he looked like a little lesser version of the story of Forrest Lamp. Instead, he barely made the USFL. We hope he does well, but it’s really seriously difficult to argue he would’ve ended up worse at WKU than barely making the third or fourth best professional football league in the world. Pearson probably would have absolutely had more opportunities to show his stuff than he did at Ole Miss, whether it was in senior all-star games or camp invites or whatever.
Those guys got into the stock market, and their draft stock plummeted.
At WKU, we’re going to win. WKU was down this year and has been down for a few years, but there’s going to be a new energy, and Steve Lutz has the track record to show that he’s not going to mess around. This WKU team will finish better than eighth place next season. I think that happens regardless of what happens with the roster. WKU will be really good in the near future.
But if Dayvion Stayvions…
It really changes the likelihood that WKU is one of the three preseason favorites to win Conference USA. There’s going to be Liberty, Middle, and then who else? There are going to be some secondary contenders, but if Dontaie Allen and Dayvion McKnight stay and Coach Lutz builds and/or keeps any kind of core around them, I guarantee you WKU is picked near the top of the league in the preseason, and for good reason.
So if I’m Dayvion McKnight, of course I’m curious about the other side of the fence. What if things could be better? What if…? But also…what if…he makes a move and long-term regrets it? That would be terrible. What if he immediately gets to his new campus and realizes…uh oh. No one wants someone to go somewhere and fade into obscurity. For example, Dayvion has received interest from, I don’t know, Tennessee. Ok, sure. There’s no way he goes there and is THE guy. Will he start? Maybe? He could also be 10th in the rotation if things don’t go right. What about Louisville? Super close to home. Power Five. Huge potential. Also, huge potential for the team to completely suck if Kenny Payne doesn’t know what he’s doing. Also, they’re bringing in a ton of talent. How does Dayvion stack up with all of those big, athletic bodies? Does he get overlooked on a roster full of specimens? These things can happen.
And then there’s Duquesne randomly…
But if you look at the list (Iowa State, Purdue, Kansas, Xavier, LSU, Mississippi State, Tennessee, and others), number one, you are not guaranteed a thing at any of those places. Second, you’re just a side piece. You have no local interest, and you are just some mid-major kid that transferred and they’re hoping you work out. There is zero guarantee. Unless you walk into a juggernaut of a roster and win your roster spot, unless you’re not the top two or three guy on your team, you’re probably not getting drafted at that school.
There are only 60 spots in the NBA Draft each year. Only seven schools had multiple players get drafted last season. Do the math. If the goal is to get drafted, does a standout Conference Player of the Year with a tournament run stand out? Or (if fortunate enough to land in a spot that would be able to start a new guard) does the third or fourth leading scorer on a team that may or may not even do anything that year get more attention?
Western Kentucky has just as many draft picks in the last few decades as plenty of other schools, and WKU absolutely has more players turn professional internationally than most schools at any “level” of college basketball.
When you weigh it all out, without knowing the details of his other offers, it’s really easy to make the argument that WKU is the place to be of all of the places Dayvion McKnight could play college basketball next season. Sure, he could go and be successful anywhere. But he can definitely stay and become even more successful here on The Hill.
I hope he weighs out his options and makes a really sound decision. If he goes somewhere and is actually successful, of course we’re going to be happy for him. We’ll be disappointed, but it’s understandable. However, if it ends negatively, that will be a shame.
So Dayvion, if you’re reading…heck, really any recruit/transfer to/from any school, remove the emotions and understand the facts.
What is the truth? Not what are you being told, but what is the real truth? Everyone is going to have their pitch. Who is shooting you straight?
We definitely have your back here at WKU. What is your current situation, and are you willing to risk it for whatever perceived reward is on the other end? If so, that’s your call and your deal.
But with all of that being said…
Bro. Ride with the Tops and let’s Dance next March.
Lutz go!
See Ya!!