WKU Basketball: State of Conference USA Men's Basketball
Now that we're in to the meat of conference play, where does each team stand so far in C-USA play?
2020-21 was a quagmire in Conference USA for myriad reasons. The conference was down just because of cyclical reasons. The season before, tons of experience left the conference by way of a combination of transfer and graduation, and new faces emerged.
No team had less than seven losses overall, and no program had less than three losses in conference. In other words, there was no dominant team. With games being canceled due to COVID quarantining and scrambling around trying to figure out possibilities for games at the last minute, the whole season was a mess, and trying to understand the conference standings is borderline pointless.
WKU led the East Division last year at 11-3, but Old Dominion happened to play two more games and finished at 11-5. So who is really to say WKU wouldn’t have lost the two extra games they didn’t play? We’ll never know.
On the West side, La Tech and UAB were the two premier teams, but North Texas actually ended up winning the conference tournament against WKU in an overtime thriller.
Here’s how it went last year…
The format of the tournament will be exactly the same as 2021. Teams will be seeded according to their finish within their division. Instead of using the ridiculous a system where all conference teams aren’t even scheduled to play all other teams, scheduling goes back to normal, where all teams will play all teams, and all division teams will play each other twice, or at least that’s the plan. Obviously, COVID-19 still rears its ugly head. Several teams have already rescheduled non-conference games. Several C-USA games, mostly during the first weekend, were rescheduled due to COVID protocol.
As you can see, the Top two seeds from each division will earn byes, so the West Division, which seems to be by far the stronger division top to bottom, will be a tight race between several teams with a realistic shot to make it. The East will also be interesting, since two teams somehow have to separate themselves from the others.
Current C-USA Standings
Conference USA is actually really strong this year. Now, did the teams play competitive schedules? Judging by the numbers and opponents within those numbers, some did and some did not, as per usual. But the overall non-conference records are really nice for a mid-major conference, and they are all very well-balanced. No team has less than three losses, but no team had more than eight losses heading into C-USA play. Now, certainly the truth shall be found out in conference play about who was hiding their quality, but the conference can boast an attempt to not only play higher quality conference opponents, but can also say that the conference has some quality wins. We’ll get into each team’s merits below.
For now, suffice it to say that each team in C-USA has shown an ability to win, but no team really stands out as the true frontrunner. If you look up odds and everything, perhaps UAB has done the most to garner the attention, and they are certainly led by a good fit in former alum Andy Kennedy who knows what he’s doing.
TeamRankings.com has UAB as the odds-on favorite to win Conference USA right now. But I’m not necessarily buying that at this point. La Tech is currently undefeated with a few good wins. UNT and WKU join those two as the main favorites according to the computers. I believe most everyone that has observed C-USA would say that so far.
With Rice notching a huge win against UAB, it begs the question if Rice could be a fifth contender, as well. Interestingly, computers still like Middle Tennessee, Charlotte, and Old Dominion before Rice, probably because of the dominant teams in their division.
Since we have little frame of reference between the divisions at this point, let’s just rank C-USA and go down the list in detail for each team.
Ranking C-USA
1W. La Tech
The Bulldogs are not a surprise at the top of the league standings, but perhaps the way that they have dominated proceedings thus far is the surprise. Dare we say La Tech has established itself as the slight favorite thus far? La Tech had a truly impressive comeback against WKU. Frankly, WKU didn’t do much to screw it up. La Tech was just that much better at the end of the game. Kenneth Lofton is scary, and he just keeps coming. He can do everything, and he is an absolute load of a man that also is very cerebral. And it’s not just him, obviously. Much like several of the top teams, La Tech has a starting lineup and a bench full of good players.
2W. UAB
UAB is clearly the most accomplished team in C-USA so far this season, and they seemed the most impressive on paper heading into the season. However, this is not as clear to me as some of the numbers suggest. UAB has quality losses in West Virginia (by 6), San Francisco (by 2), and South Carolina (by 3). UAB is 14-4 and has nice numbers by all metrics, landing mostly in the top 50. However, UAB has had some good looking teams before and ended up not even coming close to a top four seed. With UAB falling to Rice a couple of weeks ago, they certainly dropped from being the stone cold favorite beforehand. But do not sleep on UAB. Everyone is going to have a hiccup by the end (or several). Despite a loss to a borderline top 200 team, UAB is still the lone C-USA team with any real shot at an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament. It would be wonderful for C-USA if UAB would win almost all of the rest of its games heading into the C-USA Tournament.
3W. North Texas
North Texas (11-4, 4-1 C-USA) is a legit contender. With Grant McCasland at the helm, I would trust this team to make another run at it. They will absolutely figure out a way to be clicking near the end. This season, they do seem to have less depth, and they do not nearly score enough points per game to be the C-USA team for a full season. With other teams averaging well into the 70s, how does a team like UNT keep up if the other team just makes shots regardless of what is an incredible defense from the Mean Green? So this team may not be the big boss in the standings, but this team absolutely boss around three or four teams in a row in conference tournament action. Keep North Texas at the top of your list of possible C-USA winners. They may end up third in the West, which would be like having a 5 seed and needing four games in four days to defend their crown, but I would not put it past this team to get it done whether they get a bye in March or not.
1E. Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky (10-7, 2-2 C-USA) will once again contend for a C-USA title and frankly should win the whole thing if they ever play up to snuff in Conference USA play. WKU always makes a splash in the non-conference and then generally backs it up with a high finish in the standings. Then they get to the Conference USA Tournament, look good all the way to the final, and inexplicably look pedestrian in every championship game appearance (three conference tournament runner-ups in a row) since joining C-USA. Will that narrative change this year? Who knows, but WKU has some monstrous pieces, including a literal mountain of a man in 7’5” Jamarion Sharp. Every WKU starter could go for 20 multiple times this season, and although the Tops are not deep this year, Josh Anderson, the resident grizzled veteran, comes off of the bench and contributes nearly 13 points per game. WKU is dangerous but still doesn’t have that marquee victory, so to speak. Can WKU beat a good team? WKU has two Power Five wins (Ole Miss and Louisville) but only one of those teams is actually any good. And Louisville was an in-state bubble team without their best player at home. Does that really prove anything?
4W. Rice
Despite beating UAB, Rice still hasn’t done enough to prove it’s a true top-flight C-USA team just yet. I’m holding back a little bit on proclaiming them as a real contender, especially given the tough division they reside in. There are three really good teams above them in these rankings that have the clearly better resume thus far. But Rice is on my radar. Part of why I still hold some reservation is seeing their (lack of) athleticism in person and the fact that they just don’t play great defense. They give up 73+ points per game, although they can definitely score. They’re dangerous, but the defense needs to get better before they start making serious, consistent noise. This is a classic “matchup problem” team. They’ll beat some teams based on outscoring them with efficiency and a weird system with a passing big man that can’t shoot, but they’ll also lose to some of the more athletic teams like a WKU or La Tech. I need to see more of them, but that UAB win was an incredible statement.
2E. Charlotte
Charlotte is still a mystery. They’re undefeated, but a COVID pause means they’ve only played two games so far. Some teams already have six games on the books. Much like ODU, they haven’t really played anyone, so how good are they, really? Charlotte has only played two C-USA games, and neither of those wins provide any relevance to establishing how good the 49ers could be (UTEP and UTSA at home). Charlotte has been on the cusp of being above decent for years, but are they actually good this year? I’m sure C-USA would be happy to have another strong team in the East. Otherwise, it looks like WKU should run away with the division unless the Hilltoppers mail it in the rest of the season.
5W. UTEP
The Miners once again had a decent non-conference schedule and performance against said schedule. They are certainly never afraid to go play some pretty good teams. However, they are really fading to the back of the pack. With potentially four really good teams in the West, this squad will quickly plummet near the bottom of the standings. That’s unfortunate, because this team can play decent basketball. Gosh, just running through all of these teams is just a gauntlet of possible pitfalls. Everyone is decent. I can’t believe UTEP looks like fifth in the West. This is a decent basketball team. C-USA has some really strong teams out west.
3E. Old Dominion
The Monarchs looked like a disaster in the non-conference, and honestly I’m starting to think maybe they really and truly won’t be that good this year. If Jeff Jones can pull some kind of rabbit out of his hat and make ODU a winner, good for him. But right now, they’re 7-9 overall with a recent loss to UTEP, a team that may end up decent but almost definitely won’t finish higher than fourth in the West. Now it’s early and who knows if they end up being better, but right now? This is a bad team.
4E. MTSU
Middle is another really interesting development this year. They are far and away better than any post-Kermit Davis era team already. They could lose every game and be better than the trash they’ve put out there of late. But the Blue Raiders, dare we say it?!? are decent this year. MTSU hung in against UNT on the road and lost a close one to Rice. Then they took care of what seems to be a pretty bad-ish FAU team. So again, it’s still so early, but I think there’s enough here to say Middle may exceed all expectations this season and finish middle of the pack. Heck, with such a weak East, I see them possibly finishing as high as second. Their only losses in conference are close ones to Rice and North Texas on the road.
5E. FIU
FIU looked decent heading into C-USA, but now that they have played a few games and lost to Middle, I think the Golden Panthers are proving to be a lower middle of the pack type of team. There are so many “pretty good” teams in C-USA that FIU ends up near the bottom of the league. Honestly a team like this in some years would probably have competed for a bye. This year, I’m not sure they win a game in the conference tournament.
6E. FAU
For some reason, the Owls of Boca Raton have fallen on hard times. Their only win is against Marshall, a winless team in C-USA. That win was on the road, but still, this team has had some struggles. At 8-8, this team seems destined for a losing record. They do get Marshall, UTEP, and UTSA later this month, so maybe they could make a step toward relevance with some easy games after higher end games against Charlotte and WKU.
6W. USM
Southern Miss is still seemingly reeling from the loss of Doc Sadler a couple of years ago. Southern Miss got in the win column by barely beating UTSA in early January. They have lost three since and each of their next three (MTSU, UNT, and Rice) look like tough opponents for them. They could easily be 1-6 before they have a chance at some sunshine in early February.
7E. Marshall
The Thundering Herd completely falling apart is a shocker to me. Maybe they weren’t going to be elite, but the fact that they’re 0-4 with losses to bad teams boggles the mind. If Marshall can’t get it done against FIU and FAU this coming week, they may be in for a complete and total meltdown this season, because MTSU and UAB come to Huntington in two weeks.
7W. UTSA
The Roadrunners sure are going to knock the AAC’s socks off with this whale of a program. 0-5 and sucking more than a Hoover, I’m sure the AAC is just…floored with their future conference mate’s prowess on the court.
State of Conference USA: It’s the West and the Rest
There’s no question at this point that the three teams from the West are probably the odds-on favorites to win the conference in the regular season and the postseason. WKU has played two of the three and lost, although both games were coin flips. So WKU is kind of there but hasn’t proven anything of yet. Western certainly deserves mention as the most talented team and the team with the most potential with possibly two rotation players still not having played this season due to various concerns. Rice is in the same boat, basically screwed by the fact that the conference has stuck with the division model. Otherwise, they would probably compete for a bye in the C-USA Tournament. They may still, but that is an uphill battle with three far more talented teams than the Owls.
After the top five seems to be a group of teams that are decent but most likely will not be serious contenders, although at least one of them is going to get a bye as the one or two seed in the East Division. Charlotte, Middle, FIU, and ODU all should be competitive for that second East bye seed, assuming WKU runs away with the East as they should. Then there’s UTEP, a team basically isolated from the rest of the entire conference that is good but will probably finish no higher or lower than fifth in the West.
Then come the dumpster divers, the ones just hoping against hope they’ll make the second round and get to spend two nights amongst the legends of the C-USA Curtain Games at the Star. Southern Miss, UTSA, Marshall, and FAU all look to be the teams that will possibly slot into the bottom four slots at this point. However, it’s a long season and traditionally, somebody gets hot and somebody else gets cold at the end of these long conference seasons. With it being early, some of these teams could be back to .500 in a week or two in theory. But if any of these four do much losing, their season may already be basically doomed before we even reach February. For now, everyone should believe they still have a chance.
Doesn’t this C-USA feel like one of the most open in years? UAB seemed the favorite and lost to Rice. WKU could have established itself as the favorite if it would have just made a few stray plays against La Tech and North Texas. La Tech looks the part for now, but they’ve only really played Western thus far. I think the most interesting battles for position will be between the upper three (or four) West Teams and the battle for the second seed in the East. WKU should run away with the East barring complete disaster, but you never know what the basketball gods may bring any one of these programs.
It should be interesting going forward. Watch out for some serious positioning this week. More teams finally face the upper tier of the league, and others finally get a break from proven contenders. North Texas, UAB, and somewhat Louisiana Tech still have chances at at-large bids. Will they be eliminated from that discussion soon by attrition, or will they establish themselves as really good teams on a national level of recognition as a potential bubble team in the event they lose in the C-USA Championships? Much more of a hierarchy will be known after next week.