WKU Basketball: State of Conference USA Men's Basketball - Week 5

With this weekend's set of games, Conference USA proved this is going to be like every other year: Pure mediocre chaos.

Photo from Conference USA website

2020-21 was a quagmire in Conference USA for myriad reasons. The conference was down just because of cyclical reasons. The season before, tons of experience left the conference by way of a combination of transfer and graduation, and new faces emerged.

No team had less than seven losses overall, and no program had less than three losses in conference. In other words, there was no dominant team. With games being canceled due to COVID quarantining and scrambling around trying to figure out possibilities for games at the last minute, the whole season was a mess, and trying to understand the conference standings is borderline pointless.

WKU led the East Division last year at 11-3, but Old Dominion happened to play two more games and finished at 11-5. So who is really to say WKU wouldn’t have lost the two extra games they didn’t play? We’ll never know.

On the West side, La Tech and UAB were the two premier teams, but North Texas actually ended up winning the conference tournament against WKU in an overtime thriller.

Here’s how it went last year…

Source: Wikipedia

The format of the tournament will be exactly the same as 2021. Teams will be seeded according to their finish within their division. Instead of using the ridiculous system where all conference teams aren’t even scheduled to play all other teams, scheduling goes back to normal, where all teams will play all teams, and all division teams will play each other twice, or at least that’s the plan. Obviously, COVID-19 still rears its ugly head. Several teams had to reschedule non-conference games. Several C-USA games, mostly during the first weekend, were rescheduled due to COVID protocol. This has not been a major issue the past few weeks. We cross our fingers hoping for pure basketball and that we can actually have a legitimate set of standings at the end of the year.

As you can see, the Top two seeds from each division will earn byes, so the West Division, which seems to be by far the stronger division top to bottom, will be a tight race between several teams with a realistic shot to make it. The East will also be interesting, since two teams somehow have to separate themselves from the others. Right now, Charlotte and FAU would slot in to the 1 and 2 slots, but the conference season is still very young, and the division rivals haven’t really played each other twice yet for the most part.

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Current C-USA Standings

Conference USA Standings as of 1/30/2022

Conference USA is actually really strong this year in terms of depth. Only five teams have losing records, and there were even less losing records before conference play began. Now, did the teams play competitive schedules? Judging by the numbers and opponents within those numbers, some did and some did not, as per usual. But the overall non-conference records are really nice for a mid-major conference, and they are all very well-balanced. No team had less than three losses, but no team had more than eight losses heading into C-USA play. Now, certainly the truth is being found out in conference play about who was hiding their quality, but the conference can boast an attempt to not only play higher quality conference opponents, but can also say that the conference has some quality wins. We’ll get into each team’s merits below.

For now, suffice it to say that each team in C-USA has shown an ability to win, but by week’s end, once again, no true frontrunner exists right now in either division.

TeamRankings.com has UAB as the odds-on favorite to win Conference USA right now. However, UAB now sits down a game in the standings after inexplicably losing to winless Marshall Saturday night, albeit on the road. UNT goes on the road and defeats La Tech in Ruston. Is UNT now the favorite to win C-USA? I still think UAB, but I’ll be fascinated to see how the next couple of weeks shakes out in all directions.

The West Division still seems a three team battle, but UNT notched a huge arrow right on bullseye by finding a way to come back on the road and take sole possession of first. The East is a big mess, with the typical favorites, WKU, ODU, and Marshall no higher than fourth and typical leftovers, Middle, Charlotte, and FAU running things in the top three spots. Since FIU is the only remaining school in the division, they’re right where they usually are: Middle to bottom of the pack.

We’re now starting to get enough data to actually know who’s better than who, but let’s stick to an overall positioning and we’ll still label the teams by their divisions. I think next week, I’ll probably transition to splitting these up according to division since that’s ultimately what determines seeding in the C-USA Tournament.

To explain further, for example, MTSU could win the East Division at 10-8, be fifth overall, and still get the East’s #1 seed because they finish atop the mess that is the East. But for now, I will rank these teams according to how I feel. This will not be directly according to the standings, although if we don’t know enough, I’m just sticking to the standings order.

Ranking C-USA

1W. UAB

UAB is clearly the most accomplished team in C-USA so far this season, and they seemed the most impressive on paper heading into the season. UAB has quality losses in West Virginia (by 6), San Francisco (by 2), and South Carolina (by 3). Rice is a bit of a mysterious loss that we need more data on, but they did only lose to a pretty good conference team on the road by 5. However, now that UAB lost to winless Marshall on the road, they have now thrown away any real hope for an at-large bid with that horrendous loss and also sent the entire conference into a tailspin. C-USA truly finds a way to shock the system every single year. It’s never straightforward. This may rank as the single craziest result I’ve ever seen in Conference USA Basketball.

They shouldn’t be discarded because of that, though. They have huge road wins against the other three pre-conference favorites (La Tech, UNT, WKU) and honestly still feel like the best team in the conference. UAB’s schedule now gets much easier, facing the two major West teams at home later in the season and really having no obvious threats going forward. But UAB has now done what UAB does nearly every year: Crap its pants in Conference USA play. I mean, this is not a pee down the leg scenario. They literally dropped elephant dung all up on dat at-large bid, for real.

2W. North Texas

North Texas is a legit contender. With Grant McCasland at the helm, I would trust this team to make another run at it. They will absolutely figure out a way to be clicking near the end, with that one point steal of a win at La Tech, they’re now announcing themselves as a team that can win against anyone. They just held La Tech, an explosive offensive team, to 62 points. They have allowed one team to score 71, and that was now 5th ranked Kansas. This team’s defense is insanely good. And watching them in person, they’re on a mission. I wouldn’t put it past North Texas to win the regular season and go on to win by a hair in each game in the Conference USA Championships.

This season, they do seem to have less depth, and they do not nearly score enough points per game to be the C-USA team for a full season, one would think. With other teams averaging well into the 70s, how does a team like UNT keep up if the other team just makes shots regardless of what is an incredible defense from the Mean Green? Keep North Texas at the top of your list of possible C-USA winners. They may end up third in the West, which would be like having a 5 seed and needing four games in four days to defend their crown, but I would not put it past this team to get it done whether they get a bye in March or not. They did it last season as the third seed in the West. North Texas is just a weird style to prepare for. They’re not boring, but they’re methodical and they’re sneakily constricting of your overall possessions. This isn’t an ODU style where you want to drill holes in your eyeballs. They play interesting basketball but just choose everything wisely and play fundamental basketball. Their games will one of the most interesting 59-58 games you ever saw in your life.

3W. La Tech

La Tech and North Texas are about the same to me. I initially put La Tech ahead of UNT as I was building a draft for this piece because I think they’re a bigger matchup problem to more teams. But with UNT beating La Tech on the road, obviously UNT should get the nod above the Bulldogs. Kenneth Lofton, Jr., is an absolute load and technically still possibly a freshman in terms of his future eligibility. That’s terrifying for the future of Conference USA if he stays all five possible years. Chances are, he might because of his build and lack of massive height. But the guy is the real deal. It’s not just him, though. Amorie Archibald has emerged as a really good second fiddle that at times is more explosive than Lofton. Lofton is a billy club. Archibald is like a lightsaber, slicing through opponent leads like butter and extending leads with the greatest of ease. UAB or North Texas will probably win the West, but La Tech will be right there. Watch these three teams closely for the first and second West spot all year. This will probably go down to the wire regardless of Saturday’s results.

1E. MTSU

Middle is absolutely the surprise team of 2021-22. Middle has been wretched since Kermit Davis left. Well, Middle is back to being a borderline contender, and certainly if they get a top two seed in the East, which they look likely to do at this point, they will have a leg up on ten other programs come tournament time. I’m sure all the Smurfs down in SMurfville are excited. Middle has a legit chance and an easy enough schedule to be one of the top two seeds, without question. If MTSU can be solid, I think their schedule sets up the nicest of anyone in the East besides WKU. They just showed they were capable of scoring against Western. No one really knows how good this team is, and certainly no one knows how good any team will be in March. That’s a long way away. But MTSU is right there in position to get a bye, something they were absolutely predicted not to do in any way, shape, or form before the season began. Good for them.

2E. FAU

FAU went from outhouse to penthouse in a couple of weeks. They looked to be one of the worst teams in C-USA, and now they’re sitting with three losses after several weeks of action and a half game back of Charlotte. A recent loss to UTEP really mars their overall contention, but FAU looks to be good enough to beat anybody if they can score. The defense still needs work, but these Owls are extremely dangerous, already getting that big win against Charlotte and beating WKU at home. FAU’s schedule does get significantly more difficult, although they do get UNT and La Tech at home, as well as getting Charlotte and WKU teams that they have already beaten at home. They will likely still be underdogs in each of those four games mentioned, though.

4W UTEP

The Miners once again had a decent non-conference schedule and performance against said schedule. They are certainly never afraid to go play some pretty good teams. But UTEP has to find some way to break through that top three, or they will not go far come tournament time. They are already at three losses in conference and will have to find some way to make up two games on at least two really good teams to somehow earn a bye in the tournament. After already losing to UAB and La Tech, they’re essentially two games down to all of the teams above them. Breaking into that top three in 2022 is probably not realistic given how good those teams are. But they may be able to overtake one of those programs if they falter and UTEP gets hot. It still feels like a complete pipe dream, though. UTEP is almost definitely finishing 4th or 5th in the West.

3E. Old Dominion

Just when you think this program is dead for the year, they come out and beat Charlotte handily. Now, sure, that was a home game and they clearly played well, but ODU is well-coached and has an expectation to win, regardless of their current record. Much like a WKU or even Marshall now that they have a top 50 win under their belt, the guys on this roster remember winning and expect to find a way to get it done. Give them a few momentum wins and they could be right back in it. They’re only two games out and everybody plays everybody twice. I’m still waiting to see how good ODU is, but my impression is they’ll ultimately not do anything serious. But they need to be watched because they know what they’re doing, even if the talent is not remotely what it’s been in recent memory.

5W. Rice

Despite beating UAB, Rice still hasn’t done enough to prove it’s a true top-flight C-USA team just yet. They have come back to earth and actually sit behind UTEP at this point in fifth. That UAB win will make them a target for everyone moving forward. Everyone will be aware of Rice because they were the ones first capable of beating UAB. Just like Marshall will now be scouted differently, Rice will be mentioned in most conversations as a dangerous team. So far, no one else but Marshall and Rice can claim a W vs. the Blazers, including La Tech and North Texas. So watch out for the Owls, but I think this is another year of frustration for them. Rice would be a terrifying 5-seed for whoever ends up first in the West. Rice would possibly face North Texas if things finished as is in the quarterfinals.

4E. Charlotte

Charlotte is still a mystery, other than being handled routinely by UNT. What does that tell us? UNT is good and Charlotte isn’t as good. Other than that, Charlotte ran into a buzzsaw at FAU, where the Owls hit 80% from three. So that feels like a pretty fluky loss, and overall, they sit at 4-3 with a split against ODU. So with the emphatic loss to ODU, Charlotte seems to be to me a team that will probably finish behind ODU. I believe if they had beaten ODU, the Monarchs would have been in too deep of a hole and Charlotte would be in prime position. Now their tougher games come forward and they’re already in the third spot. Charlotte’s schedule will force them to prove their mettle later. They have not played UAB, La Tech, WKU, or MTSU. Those are all teams they would likely be expected to lose to at least one time at this juncture. In order for them to position themselves as C-USA powers, they need to win most of those games. I don’t see that happening.

5E. WKU

Western Kentucky. Oh boy. Obviously at Towel Rack, we know the most about them because we cover their every move. However, I think it’s safe to say this team probably will not win Conference USA this year unless they really turn it on. Here’s the crazy thing: Unless WKU completely melts down (which is arguably currently happening), they will be favored in 9 of their final 10 games. Now they do have a couple of coin flips and games they’re about a 60% favorite in, but most of their games, WKU is expected to win home or away. But WKU has played all of its toughest opponents. They now have USM, UTEP, and UTSA from the West, and they have East opponents, all of which are completely beatable night in and night out by anyone. There’s no invincible ODU or Middle Tennessee (or WKU) in the East, so it’s anybody’s game. WKU has the most lenient schedule of anyone by far moving forward. So of course, out of respect, WKU is way down the list. But I honestly see WKU still having the ability to turn it around despite a historically bad start. But WKU has now burned all shred of hope if they don’t start winning immediately. But I see the East beating itself up and losing to whoever they have left of UAB, UNT, and La Tech.

I won’t go so far as to say I see a WKU team making some moves here in the next few weeks, but if Western could just pull it together a little bit and not give up 57% three pointers against teams who shoot 29%, they would be in decent position right now. This team deserves to be considered a bottom feeder right now. But WKU also has the most talented top six in all of C-USA. WKU is kind of like a lot of teams in C-USA this year. Because of the transfer portal, everybody has some talent with experience. So WKU at the very least should be a tough out in the conference tournament, if not being the team that most turns it around heading toward the end of the season. As bleak as a five game losing streak looks, Western has faced eight teams with overall winning records to start C-USA. They’re not losing to crappy teams. These are all decent losses on an individual basis. Combined, though has put Rick Stansbury’s tenure suddenly on thin ice.

6E. FIU

FIU has a win against WKU, and they have a good overall record. Other than that, there’s not much FIU has done to show they’re actually going to do anything. I honestly think FIU is one of the more talented teams, but for whatever reason, C-USA is really talented this year and they’re getting shuffled to the back of the pack. Disrespect FIU at your peril, though. They can score in bunches and have good size.

7E. Marshall

I have no idea how to comment on Marshall right now. They just beat UAB but have lost to everyone else. I have no words to describe how shocked I am that the Herd beat UAB, regardless of it being in Huntington. But this could absolutely jump start the Herd. They could go on a run here. They’re talented enough, but just haven’t put anything together at all as of yet. Could Marshall, ODU, and WKU still contend? Yeah if they’ll all wake up and play good basketball.

6W. USM

Southern Miss has a one point win over UTSA, and that is about all that is that positive about the Golden Eagles. 6-14 overall and 1-6 in C-USA is not what they had in mind, I’m sure. But here they are, and the brutal West awaits them, along with some tough East matchups, as well.

7W. UTSA

Jhivvan Jackson ain’t walking through that door, boys. Might as well get used to it and start playing basketball. Neither is Keaton Wallace. UTSA is a shell of its contender self without a doubt. They were always in it with those two. Without them, they’re a disaster, but they did just recently beat FIU for their first win. They’re still in a six game hole already with nine to play. They’re almost mathematically certain to play Southern Miss in the first round.

State of Conference USA: Typical Freakin’ C-USA

I still think the three West teams are clearly the top level of C-USA. However, UAB just lost to Marshall. What the heck was that about? And Marshall controlled that entire game, although UAB did have a chance to tie on a Jordan Walker three point attempt. Nonetheless, that was the shocker of the week, possibly in all of college basketball. I would really be fascinated to know what other top 35 team lost to a winless conference opponent this weekend. In addition to UAB, who I still consider the favorite to win the regular season, UNT and La Tech did battle in Ruston, with UNT coming to win by one on the road. Is UNT now the favorite? They’re certainly atop the standings right now.

Then after the three West teams, is it really Middle Tennessee? Or maybe FAU? Charlotte? Old Dominion? The East is a nightmare to predict, because each team has some severe weakness. MTSU: Offense and probably need some more experience. FAU: Defense. Charlotte: Offense and talent upgrade. ODU: Needs more talent. WKU: Only plays six players and can’t win on the road. FIU: Talented but now in a deep hole and can’t win on the road. Marshall: Massively underachieving but talented. But now that Marshall has climbed out of the obvious cellar spot, could they even make a run at decency? The East feels like a race to 10-8 to me. The West is basically going to dominate the East for the most part.

In the West, winning games against the East will be crucial, as well as head-to-head matchups. The top three are pretty well going to do what they’re doing, the next two are Rice and UTEP, and then the cellar dwellers are almost certainly UTSA and USM.

WKU may be working on firing a coach, while other programs who have never had any kind of opportunity all of a sudden stand with a golden one. Ultimately, it’s about who is going to cut down the nets in March. Nothing else will really matter. With the divisional seeding and the absolute parity across the board in C-USA, anyone could win. But I still would not bet against one of those teams from the West. I do think the best coached team in the league is North Texas, and I believe Grant McCasland is going to have to have his fingers pried off of that C-USA trophy in Frisco. And keep in mind that North Texas will have a serious crowd with their campus being less than an hour away.

My pick to win the regular season would still be UAB by a razor’s edge and my tournament championship would actually be North Texas. But C-USA action will only cross over the halfway point by the end of this coming week. So there is plenty of action left to go. Stay tuned. It’s going to get even more ridiculous from here.