WKU Basketball: State of Conference USA-February 20
IT'S BAAAAACCKKKKK!!! It's been a while, but HERE is your one-stop shop for Conference USA Basketball Regular Season and Tournament analysis.
Conference USA Men’s Basketball has been hotly contested this year. For most of the season, the entire conference has been bunched together within a couple of games of each other, mostly because no one seems to be able to win on the road. However, three teams have proven themselves capable of withstanding some of the pressures of a hostile environment, and Sam Houston, Louisiana Tech, and Western Kentucky have separated themselves from the rest of the pack, nearly guaranteeing that these three will be the 1, 2, and 3 seeds in the CUSA Tournament. Are they absolute locks? No, but barring a meltdown from one of the three, they should maintain a top three finish in CUSA’s regular season.
The other six are anybody’s guess. FIU sits in last, but is within a couple of games of fourth place. The main reason they’re below everyone else? Losing a winnable game at home to MTSU. That was the razor’s edge that has put them at the bottom. Speaking of which, MTSU arose from the dead the last three games, including an impressive win at FIU and now sits at 5-6 in conference and tied for fourth place out of nine teams. They were dead last just a couple of weeks ago.
With four (for WKU only) or five games left in the regular season, every game matters, every team is vying to avoid an important roadblock that could hinder their run in Huntsville, Alabama, March 12-16.
We’ll get into several details, but with this being a bye week and a week that I don’t have as much scheduled for work, I figured a nice long-winded article that spells a lot of myths and lays it all out could be long overdue.
We’ll talk standings, tournament structure, huge advantages certain teams and seeds could have, overall national standings, you name it. We’ll touch on it here. So buckle up.
Once the regular season is over, I will do another one of these for a CUSA Tourney Preview.
Conference USA History
Just a few short years ago…
That was what Conference USA looked like. You might recnognize several programs you’ve heard of. UTSA has had some good football teams lately. UAB had some great teams in the early 2000s and just recently had success under Andy Kennedy. FAU made the Final Four last year as a member of Conference USA. Several teams have won NCAA Tournament games in recent memory for CUSA. Heck, you might even be one of the three people in the entire world that a) know and b) care that Marshall won a national championship in men’s soccer a few years ago.
Well, last season, most of these teams were gone. Southern Miss, Old Dominion, and Marshall went to the Sun Belt a couple of years ago. Rice, North Texas, FAU, Charlotte, UTSA, and UAB all went to the AAC. That left Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee State, Louisiana Tech, Florida International, and UTEP (Texas-El Paso) looking for conference mates.
The Current Teams of CUSA
Joining WKU, MTSU, FIU, La Tech, and UTEP were upstart FBS Football program Jacksonville State, traditional FCS Football stalwart Sam Houston State, and independents New Mexico State and Liberty. This group of teams made an interesting mix in football, with some programs surprising (like Liberty to the Fiesta Bowl and NMSU making the championship game), and others underperforming (WKU, MTSU). In other sports, like baseball, Conference USA is extremely strong, especially with new additions coming in. Baseball-only Dallas Baptist brings a perennial contender for hosting a regional to CUSA, along with several programs new and old on the rise in recent years. Several women’s sports have been strengthened or at least bolstered by newcomers to replace key losses.
In men’s basketball, this mixture of teams has produced a very evenly matched, heavily homecourt dominated conference with surprises every week. Liberty and MTSU, preseason favorites, look like they will finish no higher than fourth and potentially as low as last place. Western Kentucky, La Tech, and SHSU look like the class of the league, and other schools have ultimately landed about where they were expected to be.
All told, Conference USA, despite some people predicting Armageddon, has settled into the middle of the pack for this year at 16th out of 32 conferences, something most realistic constituents of these programs should be ultimately ok with.
CUSA Tournament Bracket
Different from previous years, where several teams would get byes into the quarterfinals, this season, only two teams have to play four games, and they don’t even have to do it in four days. They actually get five to win four. The 8-9 seeds will play each other for the honor of playing the one seed. Then typical quarterfinal matchups unfold from there: 2-7, 3-6, 4-5. Then semis happen and then finals. No matter the seeding, nothing gets reshuffled after the tournament starts. To explain, the one seed would not play the seven seed in the semis just because the seven was the lowest remaining seed. The seven would play the winner of the 3-6 game no matter the previous results.
The other major wrinkle to this season’s tournament is the Huntsville location only has one arena available, Propst Arena. With that being said, both men’s and women’s tournaments have to complete the entire tournament between March 12 and March 16 on one court and not two. Therefore, the 8-9’s from both men and women will compete on Tuesday the 12th. Then the 1-8-9 matchup and the 2-7 matchup from both men and women will play on Wednesday. Then the 3-6 and 4-5 quarterfinal games will be played Thursday. Now that there will only be four total semis played, all games are back on the same day Friday, and then the two championship games will be on Saturday.
Therefore, the biggest and possibly most crucial wrinkle could be the fact that the one and two seeds (and 7, 8, and 9) get a huge advantage over the other teams: They get a day’s rest in the middle of the tournament. That’s right. 3-6 play three straight days. If the 8-9 winner somehow makes the semis (which happens every few years), they get a day off to recover while the 3-6 seeds have to keep playing the next day.
There could be some odd results, either from teams that get in a groove and lose it with an extra day off, or from teams that get worn out by the semis or finals because they didn’t get to get off their legs for a day. The coaches with experience may honestly struggle with figuring out how to make the schedule work. Who knows?
But one things is for certain: With 1-2-7-8-9 all having a different path than 3-4-5-6, there could be odd strategic decisions made late in the year, and it honestly should keep all of the action relevant, because every seed line completely changes how your tournament physically works.
A team that goes from eighth to seventh gains perhaps the biggest advantage in the whole tournament (besides playing the second favorite out of the box). That team gets rest after its first game if it wins and plays a team on no rest early on Friday that should not be as good as its previous opponent. With only two teams getting rest in the top of the standings, the team that falls to third loses a day’s rest. Even falling in the middle of the standings from fifth to sixth completely changes the path.
This should really make the end of the regular season a must-watch. No team will be resting on its laurels.
The Standings
Breaking It Down For Ya
Conference USA has now finally separated info a few layers, but the fascinating part is anything could still happen and pretty impactful ramifications could result from certain teams slipping just a little bit. Given the parameters of the CUSA Tournament, some teams are under more pressure than others. The loser of the WKU/La Tech/Sam Houston war at the top will fall to (at least) the three seed and will have to win three games in three days. The top two will probably feel fairly rested compared to a normal conference tournament.
The bottom six teams are really fighting to get to seed number four. All of them are still in the race, assuming anyone can turn it on and make a run. Sure, some teams probably won’t, but in theory, everybody is in it. Having seen everyone at least once and most in person, there’s not a team in CUSA that can’t win a couple in a row and change the narrative. I think everyone in CUSA could agree with that.
Some may look at the standings and say seed number three is technically up for grabs, and heck, even number two for a couple of the teams at 5-6. Yes, technically they still could, but if any of those teams lose any more games, they’re out. Also, if the top three teams simply tread water and win a game or two, they will almost certainly still sit in the top three. Technically it’s possible. It’s just incredibly unlikely, though.
So who knows what happens with these two piles of teams fighting for limited spots, but one thing is for sure: 1 and 2 are important, and staying out of the 8-9 matchup and needing another win to win a championship is probably going to prove crucial. Other than that, anyone 1-7 really has an equal footing into the CUSA Tournament as long as they handle their bodies correctly.
Three Battling for Two
Sam Houston State (15-11, 8-3 C-USA, NET: 177, Projected NCAA Tournament Seed: 15, Chance to Win CUSA Tournament: 9%) really had a lackluster resume heading into the season, really wasn’t expected to do much, and kind of backed that thought up in the non-conference. However, once they hit Conference USA play, things sort of clicked in, and they have absolutely looked like the class of the league, beating WKU and La Tech the three times they’ve played them so far and putting themselves in with the clear path to the one seed. All they have to do is not screw up and they should be fine to get the one, and surely the two. However, they have three disappointing road losses in conference: At Liberty, at FIU, and at Jacksonville St.
Sam Houston has the tools in Huntsville (I guess both cities in Texas and Alabama, actually) if they can avoid falling apart away from home. Sam immediately plays NMSU and UTEP, arguably two of the toughest places to play in CUSA. If they can even split that trip, they’re probably going to come out fine and will either get the one or two seed barring major upset. If they don’t, this race is wide open and it becomes WKU’s to win, assuming Western beats Middle. With the way they have played, if they are tied with either (or both) WKU or La Tech, they will beat them in a tiebreaker barring improbable circumstances.
Louisiana Tech (18-8, 8-3 CUSA, NET: 85, Most Likely NCAA Tournament Seed: 14, Chance to win CUSA Tournament: 36%) is probably the best overall team in Conference USA, and is certainly the most consistent team in and out of conference play. La Tech played a quality schedule, hence the high NET ranking, and although they have lost three games in conference, they lost them by a combined 12 points to good teams. La Tech is a team that doesn’t beat itself, but it is vulnerable to a good performance. If La Tech gets bounced out of the CUSA Tournament, it’s either because they had an injury or because someone was better than them that night.
La Tech unfortunately has the most difficult schedule of the three contenders vying for the top two spots. They also are not guaranteed a tiebreaker against WKU, needing to beat WKU at WKU to earn a chance at a tiebreaker. Otherwise, they lose tiebreakers to Sam, obviously WKU, and even teams like Liberty who could crack the top three. La Tech gets the West road trip, at WKU, at home vs. SHSU, and vs. MTSU. That is a tough schedule! If they get through that and end up the one seed, that just shows their quality. And they could do it! From their perspective, with games against the other two teams, they are in control of their own destiny.
Western Kentucky (19-7, 8-4 CUSA, NET: 138, Most Likely NCAA Tournament Seed: 14, Chance to win CUSA Tournament: 14%) is a team that surprised WKU fans, but really it seems like no one else is shocked. Western fans may have been down on their team, but the rest of Conference USA figured WKU would somehow be in it in March. WKU is in control of getting the two seed. If WKU wins out, it will be at least second. However, the much taller task is Sam Houston needing to lose at least two of five when they have two pretty solid “gimmes” in home games against JSU and Middle. That leaves needing SHSU to lose two of the remaining three or getting upset at home to even give WKU a shot to sweep and steal the regular season title.
WKU certainly has the most firepower in Conference USA, going ten deep comfortably with nine players that can drop double digits any given night. Several players have already had 20 point efforts or more. You get the idea. Offensively, they’re the number one team in terms of pace in the country. The question with WKU is, “Can they play enough defense?” Lately, they have, but WKU has had moments and games where they might as well have put a welcome mat out in the lane for the opposing players to come on in and test out the rim and grab an offensive board or two. Fixing that and turnovers could make WKU champions in March.
Six Battling for Four
New Mexico State (11-15, 5-6 CUSA, Net: 272, Most Likely NCAA Tournament Seed: 16, Chance to win CUSA Tournament: 1%) has crept into the conference race despite dismantling the program in the offseason. Despite its ugly record, NMSU has quality wins (all at home). The major issue with NMSU is whether they can win away from their own arena. If they can’t, it doesn’t matter about Conference USA Tournament, because they will just lose when they get to Huntsville. However, if they can find some kind of way to be decent on the road, watch out. The level they play with at home is to the tune of one of the best teams in the conference. How would they do on a neutral court?
Liberty (16-10, 5-6 CUSA, NET: 113, Most Likely NCAA Tournament Seed: 14, Chance to win CUSA Tournament: 28%) looked like the clear conference favorite heading into conference play, but they have quickly come back to Earth, struggling to handle CUSA’s massive massive players on virtually every roster. Liberty was highly competitive in the Atlantic Sun, where not every team had a big guy that could move and control the paint. Every team in CUSA has players taller than Liberty that can play on at least one end of the court. In fact, Liberty is one of the shortest teams in America. That has been exposed during CUSA play without question.
However, they are still a good team, they still can shoot, and they still could absolutely win the Conference USA Tournament. They will not win the regular season, but they could certainly win the rest of their games and sneak into a three seed or so. They would have to be the favorite for the fourth seed, although as we’ve discussed, three through seven mean almost nothing in terms of the difference the seed number makes. Liberty is like a lesser Belmont, kind of having that private school, “white guy” feel to the roster. Fundamentally sound, thick bodied, can shoot, but not tall at all. Would our Flames fans tuning in agree? I think so. Could the solid fundamentals and shooting create matchup problems in Huntsville? We’ll see.
Middle Tennessee State (11-15, 5-6 CUSA, NET: 298, Most Likely NCAA Tournament Seed: 16, Chance to win CUSA Tournament: 1%) was completely dead three games ago. They looked absolutely finished, sitting at 2-6, but a surprising road win righted the ship, and the Blue Raiders won two at home against NMSU and UTEP. Now, does that mean anything at all? That remains to be seen. They could easily fade back down to the bottom of the standings, especially with a road game at JSU Wednesday and WKU coming to town Saturday night. Actually, they will not be favored the whole rest of the season: At JSU, vs. Western, at Sam, vs. Liberty, at La Tech. They could easily finish 5-11.
But if they don’t and they show some fight, good for them. They had a senior guard go down two games into the season that was likely going to average double digits and help them stabilize the perimeter. Instead, they’re down a quality player on a roster that in hindsight probably couldn’t afford any kind of significant loss. If Middle somehow stays out of the 8-9 matchup, watch out. And watch out to the teams that do face them, because the Raiders are plenty capable. Jestin Porter has had two games in the last week where he dropped in at least 26 points, scoring 41 against UTEP.
UTEP (13-13, 4-7 CUSA, NET: 213, Most Likely NCAA Tournament Seed: 16, Chance to win CUSA Tournament: 5%) is another team that struggles away from home. They have not won a true road game all season. However, they are generally quite good at home. They can certainly play spoiler and give La Tech and Sam Houston trouble this week. If they don’t hold their own at home, however, they could easily sink to the bottom in a very tight lineup from four to nine. Despite the distrust away from home, watch for this team simply because they are well-coached and they force a ton of turnovers. Either of those can wreck a game, and when a team does both, you can anticipate unexpected results from them.
Jacksonville State (12-14, 4-7 CUSA, NET: 187, Most Likely NCAA Tournament Seed: 16, Chance to win CUSA Tournament: 5%) is such an interesting case, because they have arguably the Player of the Year in Kyky Tandy. They also have the far and away most experienced head coach in the conference in Ray Harper. Now, can Ray really pull some magic out of a team with only one real star? A team that struggles to score and isn’t great defensively, either? Maybe not, but I would never ever count out a coach that’s been to four NCAA Tournaments, winning every one of them as an underdog seed. Western fans are probably nauseated as I continue, but he also has several national championships at the lower levels of college basketball before becoming a head coach, ironically at Western Kentucky when they were also in a different conference.
Nonetheless, there’s a reason Jax State sits at eighth place and still has a prayer at an NCAA Tournament appearance. Just like Middle, if they can avoid the eight or nine seed, watch out. Even if they’re the eight or nine, watch out. With a player like Kyky Tandy that can singlehandedly win games against Conference USA level opponents, you never know.
Florida International (8-18, 3-8 CUSA, NET: 301, Most Likely NCAA Tournament Seed: 16, Chance to win CUSA: 1%) is the one team that seems to ultimately be the clear favorite to get the nine seed. The computer projections predict FIU to be the underdog in every game going forward. Two games look like 50/50 affairs, but FIU is still going to have to pull out at least two upsets to even have a chance to pull out of the 8/9 game.
Despite the seeding challenge and the hole they’ve dug, FIU has weapons, and they are not to be ignored. FIU has length, has the leading thief of basketballs in America that also scored double digits per game, and also has a sharpshooter that leads the team offensively. And also, I love to mention their coach’s hair. It’s wonderful. And frankly, he’s a good young coach that’s in one of the toughest jobs in America. The fact that he’s in a tough job doesn’t change the fact that he’s pretty good at maximizing his team’s abilities. Clearly FIU is a slouch in terms of its record, but don’t discount the Golden Panthers’ athleticism. They have that “Florida talent”, meaning they can step up and surprise people by their physical abilities night-to-night.
Prediction For Seeding
As it stands right now, you have the three at the top vying for the two coveted spots for the day’s break, and then you have the six teams likely vying for no better than a three seed, and most likely not better than the four seed.
It will unfold as follows:
Sam Houston will lose two games, but hold on to first place at 11-5
Western Kentucky will only lose one more, but that one more will keep them from winning CUSA outright.
La Tech has such a tough schedule that they could have a couple of quality wins and still get third place, especially given the tiebreaker issues with WKU.
Liberty will emerge best of the rest, separating themselves with a winning record in Conference USA, nearly catching La Tech.
Jacksonville State will win four of five to end the year and end up the fifth seed.
New Mexico State will benefit from its homecourt advantage and end up with a respectable seed.
UTEP will squeak just out of the play-in game due to good coaching and home court advantages out West.
MTSU will suffer from a difficult schedule. Being favored in zero games to end the season will be mentally draining. They may squeeze out one, but there’s no way they win more than two more, surely.
FIU is also a team expected to lose its remaining games. They’re also a game in the hole on everyone else, so they would have to upset twice to remotely have a chance against JSU and UTEP, who will likely win multiple games down the stretch.
Ridiculously Specific Conference USA Tournament Prediction
Overall, I think most of CUSA knows that La Tech and WKU are the two best teams in the conference. Sam Houston may feel differently, but close wins don’t mean dominance, and their inability to win away from home makes me feel like they’ll stumble in one of their first two games despite being the conference favorite.
I believe the winner of WKU/La Tech wins the championship. They are incredibly likely to square off in the semis, and if that happens, I like WKU’s explosiveness and depth. They’ve already proven capable at La Tech, and despite the numbers saying otherwise, the Tops will likely beat La Tech in Diddle Arena.
Once WKU gets past La Tech, they will face Liberty, who will have upset Sam Houston in the semis. WKU will be angry from their loss at the buzzer at Liberty heading into the tournament, and WKU will use that loss at the end of the season to propel themselves all the way to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2013.