WKU Basketball: Sun Belt's Hoops Ambitions Ring Hollow Without Serious Consideration of Adding Tops
Multiple sources are on record as saying the Sun Belt Conference doesn't hold a grudge against WKU, but it's getting harder and harder to believe.
It was the worst kept secret that, during last fall’s conference realignment race, Western Kentucky was only under consideration by one non C-USA league: the Mid-American Conference.
And, thanks to the cowardice by those in charge at Middle Tennessee, that dream slipped through Hilltopper fan’s hands like grains of sand, leaving the Tops stranded in a conference that leaves little to be desired in just about every aspect, from the company that’s being kept to the current media deal keeping C-USA one of the least visible conferences in the country.
The American Athletic Conference’s decision to not pursue WKU is well-publicized and makes sense enough, even if you disagree with the line of thinking: The AAC is going after mid-majors in large media markets. Charlotte. San Antonio. South Florda, Houston.
It may bug you, especially considering WKU’s proximity to Nashville and Louisville, but it makes sense.
What makes less sense is why the Sun Belt didn’t have interest, if only to blackball WKU as punishment for the way it left for C-USA after the 2013-14 season.
That question as to why the Sun Belt never even gave WKU a look was put back into focus last week, thanks to a three-part series in the Harrisonburg Daily News-Record.
James Madison beat writer, Shane Mettlen, took a three-part deep-dive in to the SBC’s plans to elevate basketball (specifically, men’s basketball) to the same level as other sports in the conference.
Financial commitments from member schools, boosting scheduling strategies and not only being more visible, but looking like can’t-miss programing are all highlighted by Mettlen, but you can’t help but think adding WKU would go a long way in helping to achieve all of those goals.
Financial commitment
If the Sun Belt is wanting its schools to commit financially, look no further than Bowling Green, Kentucky.
According to Three Man Weave, Western Kentucky spends just over $2.8 million annually on men’s basketball, the third-most among Conference USA members (behind only UTEP and AAC-bound UAB) and more than all of the incoming SBC schools, with the exception of James Madison (who spends $3.3 million)
Marshall, who Mettlen quotes in his story, isn’t terribly far behind the Hilltoppers when it come to spending ($2.2 million), while ODU is also in that range, just a few spots below the Hilltoppers ($2.7 million).
I’m more than willing to admit this point of emphasis for the SBC is much more about an emphasis from current members than the incoming ones: Two schools (Arkansas State, ULM) are in the bottom 44 in the nation in spending, while Troy and App State are also under $1.5 million in spending.
Scheduling Prowess
What is arguably the strongest case for WKU’s Sun Belt inclusion if the conference is serious about raising its basketball footprint is in scheduling.
Not only are the Hilltoppers more aggressive in scheduling than the entirety of the Sun Belt, they’re more successful in winning games against major opponents, too.
Since the 2016/17 season, WKU’s first under Rick Stansbury, the Tops have the same number of wins alone (12) than the roster of SBC schools at the end of the 2021/22 year combined (12).
WKU’s wins vs. Power opponents (since 2016/17):
Nov. 23, 2017: 77-73 vs. #18 Purdue (neutral site)
March 15, 2018: 79-62 vs. Boston College
March 19, 2018: 79-75 @ USC
March 21, 2018: 92-84 @ Oklahoma State
Nov. 16, 2018: 63-57 vs. West Virginia (neutral site)
Dec. 8, 2018: 78-77 @ Arkansas
Dec. 29, 2018: 83-76 vs. #15 Wisconsin
Dec. 7, 2019: 86-79 vs. Arkansas (OT)
Nov. 26, 2020: 75-69 vs. Memphis (neutral site)
Dec. 19, 2020: 73-71 @ Alabama
Dec. 12, 2021: 71-48 vs. Ole Miss (neutral site)
Dec. 18, 2021: 82-72 vs. Louisville
Sun Belt wins vs. Power opponents (since 2016/17):
Arkansas State: 78-72 vs. Georgetown (Nov. 17, 2016)
Coastal Carolina: 79-57 vs. Utah (Nov. 21, 2019), 80-56 vs. South Carolina (Dec. 1, 2021)
Georgia State: 91-67 vs. UGA (Nov. 21, 2018), 83-80 @ Alabama (Dec. 4, 2018), 123-120 (4OT) @ Ga. Tech (Nov. 25, 2020)
Georgia Southern: 85-83 @ Wake Forest (Nov. 10, 2017)
Louisiana-Lafayette: 80-71 vs. Iowa (Nov. 20, 2017 - neutral site)
UT-Arlington: 72-61 vs. Texas (Nov. 29, 2016), 65-51 @ #12 St. Mary’s (Dec. 8, 2016), 105-89 @ BYU (March 15, 2017), 89-75 @ BYU (Nov. 18, 2017)
But, don’t forget, UT-Arlington will not be a Sun Belt member as of July 1, so you might as well take out their four (and arguably the most impressive of the group) wins, and the Hilltoppers have more wins than the current Sun Belt crop.
A stat that rings true even when factoring the incoming members - Marshall, James Madison, Southern Miss, Old Dominion - who among them have three power wins over this time period:
Marshall: 81-75 vs. Wichita St. (March 16, 2018 - NCAA Tournament)
ODU: 68-62 @ #25 Syracuse (Dec. 15, 2018)
JMU: 52-49 vs. Virginia (Dec. 7, 2021)
Not only do the Hilltoppers have the advantage in competing with and beating teams of higher national prominence, but their rolodex of opponents is unmatched. No other team in the Sun Belt has each of the Power 5 conferences at least once, yet alone as at least one win against a team in each conference.
WKU’s body count could potentially be higher, but their reputation precedes them: Multiple teams have essentially refused to play the Tops, worried about potential repercussions if they lost (which is a whole other issue I won’t get started on here).
The whole desire for the Sun Belt is to become a two-bid league. Mettlen talks about how more SBC schools are wanting to move to buying games instead of being bought, but buy games against regional low-majors are only going to get you so far (just ask WKU, which has had to move to this model out of an aforementioned necessity).
Final Thoughts
As you can probably tell, my first instinct upon reading about the Belt’s desires to up their hoops profile was hysterical laughter out of disbelief, thanks to their blackballing a program that fits everything they claim to want in order to raise the league’s profile.
A rising tide lifts all boats.
Not only does WKU show no signs of slowing down financial support of the basketball program, but they can add to their resume of taking down power programs this year: Games at South Carolina and Louisville are already on the docket, and they’ll play in a Thanksgiving tournament that features Kansas State, LSU and Rhode Island. Two or three more power victories isn’t out of the program, and with the marketing arm of the SBC, they’d be able to make a big deal out of those, if WKU was aboard.
But, for now, they’re not, so they won’t.
Only two teams have multiple power conference games on the books for the upcoming season: James Madison (UNC, Virginia) and ULM (Texas A&M, TCU), and you can expect to see the Tops singlehandedly overtake the conference in power wins by the time the season ends.
The Sun Belt has every reason to blackball the Hilltoppers - they didn’t look after the conference at its worst, why would the conference turn around and do the same for WKU now? - but it’s clear WKU would fill a need the conference has and for them to say they want a major fix to men’s basketball and not seriously consider the program that would arguably help the most means the SBC’s desires to fix its product will ring hollow and unserious.
