WKU Basketball: Tops Get Swept in the West, Steve Lutz With First Big Miscue of his Tenure

Western Kentucky melted down a 23 point lead and lost another winnable game in El Paso. Although WKU was a slight underdog in both games, the sweep highlighted some concerns for Topper fans.

Western Kentucky Men’s Basketball had been humming along this season, starting out 12-3 and exceeding all realistic expectations. Although the schedule has been remarkably weak (zero quad 1 or 2 games played and three non-Division I schools), no realistic fan or prognosticator would have sincerely thought WKU (12-3, 1-0 CUSA at the time) would sit at what felt like a virtual lock to reach 20 regular season wins. Now WKU sits at 13-6 and 2-3 in CUSA play and much more is in question.

What has happened since late December?

And how can we explain that debacle Thursday at NMSU and the frustrating back-and-forth in El Paso?

WKU does not look like the same team, and the statistics bear that out.

In Case You Missed Last Week…

WKU came into this past week at 2-1 in conference and hoping to find a way to sweep the week, which in hindsight, would have put WKU into sole possession of first place by a half game over two teams. NMSU was 7-10 and already had a questionable double digit loss at FIU on its resume.

With all of the drama at NMSU in the offseason, with an entirely new staff, a scandal, and administration taking extreme heat, one wouldn’t expect the Aggies to be even a respectable ball club. However, they are a viable opponent. Jordan Rawls transferred out from WKU (again) and landed a starting position with NMSU, something he may have done if he had stayed with the Tops, especially given new injury concerns.

Regardless, NMSU has surprised, but this is a game WKU fans expected to win, and they certainly expected to win if the Tops got a significant lead.

Well, WKU got a significant lead Thursday night. They started out up ten and actually nearly lost the lead in the first half. However, they would pull away to the tune of a 37-27 halftime margin. So far, so good, right? Well, Western came out to start the half hot as blazes, extending that vulnerable ten point lead to a (presumably) impenetrable 23 points. At 52-29, WKU was in complete control with a shade over 16 minutes left to play.

From there, NMSU started shaving away, but it was not like it was all lost at once. There were another six minutes where WKU held at least a double digit lead still. NMSU started raining in threes, and the Hilltoppers responded with an occasional two pointer. Ultimately, WKU allowed the lead to dip well into the single digits, and then the Tops dug in.

Like any other comeback, it was going to fall short. The Aggies were surely too gassed after a furious rally, right? Well, it sure seemed like WKU had stemmed the tide and would find a way. Don McHenry will come to life and score more than one point, surely! Nope. That never happened.

And there inlies the frustration:

WKU didn’t just fall victim to a 24-0 run, although that would be terrible, too. It was a slow, painful ooze of a death, with a lull where WKU could have taken back a double digit lead. Instead, Western let the Aggies hang around with foolish turnovers and uncharacteristically mindless plays.

Western would ultimately turn to a combination of mainly Don McHenry and Khristian Lander in the final few minutes, which would only result in two made free throws in the final 4:05 of the game.

WKU had stemmed the tide, and then frankly decision making and strategy ultimately did not work, and Steve Lutz got his first real dose of blame as the Topper Head Coach. Every other loss was understandable or a reasonable outcome, but this is the first “inexcusable” moment for Steve Lutz. Now, that doesn’t mean he’s incompetent or that he’s on the seat or anything, but it does mean he and his staff screwed this one up. There’s no excuse for a 23 point lead lost in 16 minutes.

Heading into UTEP, WKU was apparently down Khristian Lander and Jalen Jackson against the number one team statistically in the nation at stealing the basketball. Uh oh. So there was that feeling of foreboding heading up to the game, but ultimately, it was on Steve Lutz and the Tops to salvage the road trip. With a win, WKU would sit in fourth and only a game back. With a loss, the Tops sit tied for seventh and two losses behind in the loss column.

In terms of heart and effort, WKU fought, battling UTEP, but the Tops just hurt themselves far too much. Yes, they were struggling without Lander and Jackson, but they completely lost this game by not taking care of the basketball and missing important free throw opportunities. They also couldn’t stop Tae Hardy (27 pts, 50% FG, 4 stl) if their lives depended on it. He had 15 in the first half and 12 in the second.

Ultimately, WKU was less aggressive, made worse decisions, and once again, had a lead late and allowed the opponent to outscore them by double digits inside of a short time frame. From 5:39 to :27, WKU was -13. That’s a 5:12 stretch where the Miners ate WKU’s lunch. Ultimately, WKU fell 93-87, falling to a tie for seventh with Liberty in the CUSA standings.

Why This Moment Matters

For those saying this a panicked, blame game type of article. First of all, I’m calm, and I believe Towel Rack’s general stance as a group is that this week was crappy, but the Tops are trying to find themselves post-Jalen Jackson and they can easily hop right back into the race. However, we also feel as a group that the time is now or never, and we also feel it’s newsworthy to mention that this is the first time Steve Lutz has looked bad, other than the meltdowns in Canada.

WKU faces an important stretch of five of the next seven games at home. If WKU starts dropping games at home, then we have a whole new set of problems to talk about. FIU, SHSU, MTSU, UTEP, and NMSU all come to Diddle in the next month. Only La Tech and Jacksonsville State will be on the road, and heck, WKU follows that up with a trip to MTSU. This is concerning, because WKU has no momentum heading into a stretch where they should go no worse than 5-2. That would leave them at 7-5 with four more conference games left to play and probably in the thick of the race for a bye. It may be unrealistic to expect more than that, but frankly WKU is capable of winning every game at home and splitting on the road for a 6-1 mark. But given the confidence level, will WKU seize the opportunity?

Ominously sitting in wait are several opponents the Tops have struggled with, and this time, they will get their chance at revenge inside Diddle Arena. Will the Tops seize the opportunity or squander it? This is a big moment for the direction of WKU Basketball’s opening act in the Steve Lutz era.

Is it going to result in greatness? Or will it completely fizzle and end up being a year where he immediately feels heat at the end of the season? This next stretch could decide much of these questions.

The Excuses

Ok so let’s be completely fair. There were several reasons that people just need to calm down, and I firmly stand by many of these as completely legitimate!

WKU was expected to lose both games

According to the computers and Vegas, WKU was expected to lose by 2.5 to NMSU and 1.5 to UTEP, and that’s ultimately how the games played out. WKU was in a coin flip with UTEP and ended up faltering at the end to NMSU in a close margin. It was a realistic statistical possibility that WKU could lose both games. ESPN’s BPI liked UTEP at about a 60% chance, and NMSU was barely favored. According to rough math, that’s about a 30% chance of losing both. That is not a small percentage, folks. However, there was also a slight chance of a sweep (less than 20%), as well. The most likely outcome was a split, though.

Given the Tops held a 23 point lead in one game with so little time left, there is absolutely no reason WKU shouldn’t have taken the one at NMSU and lived either way with the result at UTEP. Now that it’s a sweep, it’s incredibly frustrating, and you can’t help but retroactively get more frustrated with the 23 point meltdown.

The Altitude

Both games were played at elevation. For perspective, Diddle Arena sits at about 500 feet above sea level. Both Las Cruces and El Paso sit between 3500 and 4000 feet in elevation. Whether that was a factor or not, WKU looked tired down the stretch in both games, and it’s already been established WKU tangibly faded down the stretch. Were they just tired?

Injuries

Yeah that’s completely fair. Jalen Jackson still being healthy probably results in at least one win, if not two, and may have helped WKU beat Sam Houston State. Khristian Lander was out for the UTEP game with a concussion (he may be out another week or two, depending on how he clears his testing), and he is one of the primary ball handlers and has also been used as one of the main defenders on the team, as well. And again, UTEP is elite at forcing turnovers.

However, a 23 point lead lost is never excusable, no matter the situation. Lander played in that game, and WKU had its opportunities and didn’t take them.

Life is Tough on the Road

Yes, that is true, but ultimately if the Tops are going to be a contender for CUSA, you have to find a way to a) win early conference games and give yourself leverage and b) you can’t lose to multiple bad/average teams, all in a row. That excuse doesn’t hold water if we’re going to hold WKU to the standard that they set for themselves by starting 12-3: It’s time to compete for a championship.

What Happened?

Let’s let the stats tell the story.

Turnovers

Not only has it been a problem in the last two games, but since starting CUSA play, WKU has been absolutely horrible taking the ball. Is that a direct correlation to Jalen Jackson? Probably, but nonetheless, WKU went from under 15 per game to averaging over 18 turnovers in its five conference games thus far. If you’re looking for explaining inconsistent play, how about inconsistency taking care of the basketball?

Three Pointers

A point that I haven’t seen much of in conversation after either of these two games (besides obviously giving up 9-of-14 in the second half Thursday) is three pointers. In WKU’s three conference games, WKU has given up no less than 35% from three point land. WKU’s overall three point defense is sitting way under 30%.

Defense

WKU’s scoring defense hasn’t been elite all year in terms of points per game, but Western’s losses in conference have been significantly worse defensively than the typical result thus far in 2023-24. WKU has given up more than 80 ppg in its three CUSA losses, while averaging 73 in its other 16 games.

Non-Existent Producers

In each of WKU’s CUSA losses, Western has had at least two starters (and sometimes one or two other key scorers) enter the halftime break with zero field goals. Even when WKU was leading by ten at NMSU, what if it was just 14 points instead of a ten point lead? Then Don McHenry not only was held scoreless in that first half, but it took him another 14 minutes to score his first and only point. If he (and others) would have some kind of decent showing in both halves, WKU probably wins both games this past week.

That’s a lot of pressure on three starters to carry the main load of the scoring. WKU’s inconsistency issues have been masked by big halves by others, but having people be completely shut out for halves at a time leads to incredible levels of inconsistency when looking at a 40 minute game. It’s one thing for a guy who scores eight to score six, but when he scores zero and takes seven or eight shots, that’s a problem.

When your leading scorer (Don McHenry) and two key contributors (Dontaie Allen and Enoch Kalambay) who normally contribute 28 ppg combine for one point, 1-for-16 shooting, only one three, only drew one shooting foul, only commit one foul (a sign of absence), and have five turnovers, it’s now easier to see how WKU could screw up a 23 point lead.

WKU has to do a better job balancing out the scoring within games. WKU’s roster has eight players who score 5.9 or more points per game, but do they all do it in one game? Generally not. And don’t get me wrong, of course people will have a bad night, get in foul trouble, whatever. But what really messes with affecting the result? When Don McHenry doesn’t score a field goal at all. When Dontaie Allen finally gets his nod to start and is only able to be on the court 16 minutes while committing four turnovers in limited action. When guys just play their very worst, that’s when it really hurts.

Changing Patterns Late

Of course a coach has to change things at crunch time a little bit, but sometimes overthinking things can really damage offensive flow in the final few minutes. If WKU goes 38 minutes playing one way and then completely changes character the final two minutes, who does that favor? I would say the opposing team benefits from a team being out of character for those final two minutes.

Then again, if you have a true bona fide closer, then let him do his thing, as well. However, WKU has used Don McHenry in late game situations. Against NMSU, he had one point and hadn’t really even looked good all game, yet he was called on in an isolation situation to come up with the goods. He made a few big shots down the stretch at Sam Houston, but this week, he was atrocious at NMSU and despite 18 points vs. UTEP, he didn’t take a shot down the stretch. He was in foul trouble, but in the final 7:03, the guy with the most points doesn’t get a look? You already declared you were all in on Don, but the next game, he gets one assist and zero shots for the final seven minutes…

New Mexico State was the most egregious malpractice with a frustrating ending. Obviously WKU lost a sizable lead later in the game, in addition to the overall 23 points. Steve Lutz called two timeouts and had three set plays out of stoppages in the final few minutes. He chose to go against the hot hand in Lander, Tyrone Marshall, or Brandon Newman and had Don McHenry be the guy. A remarkable show of trust, it completely backfired. McHenry wasn’t even close on any of his attempts, and again, the Tops ran down the clock, dribble handed it off to the selected iso guy, and got nothing out of those possessions.

It’s one thing to have those things not work out, but you are under an incredible microscope when you’ve melted down a huge lead, and frankly every decision Steve Lutz made in the second half Thursday backfired. The moves he made at UTEP for five minutes near the end of game resulted in a -13 result. He kept Teagan Moore in too long at point guard. He didn’t have his guys attacking the rim to draw fouls and the opponent in both games benefitted from WKU’s lack of aggression, especially late.

Putting it Back in Perspective

Simply put, this was not good for the psyche of Hilltopper Nation. This confirmed everyone’s worst fears. People are back to thinking Lutz is no different than Rick Stansbury, that the hopes a one seed in the CUSA Tournament are doomed, that WKU’s schedule led us all to believe they were better than they were, and even that Steve Lutz may not be a great hire.

Keep in mind that very little of this has been heard the last 15 games or so, because WKU had won over a lot of the naysayers with their great looking record. Now all of those questions are back, and now that WKU’s record is more pedestrian and the Tops are in a tie for seventh, skepticism naturally creeps in, and rightfully so.

The point blank truth is that championship teams generally don’t lose to two bad teams in a row. They might get surprised once, but they generally don’t lose to also-rans multiple times during the season. Usually they win their fair share against other contenders, but they’ll generally separate themselves by winning tough, close games against inferior opponents while cruising the other half of the time.

But I will say this, also. Of course there’s room for negativity. But people also need to chill out. WKU has played one of the tougher CUSA schedules thus far. They have played preseason conference favorite Liberty, the first placed teams in Sam Houston and New Mexico State, the probable player of the year in Kyky Tandy of Jacksonville State, and endured the conference’s most grueling road trip.

Western has not looked hopeless in any of its losses, and circumstance has led to the losses. Have they shown a propensity to melt down a lead? Yes, they have. Half of their losses have come by teams that were significantly down earlier in the game. But they have also shown an ability to win some tough games down the stretch.

WKU definitely needs to figure out a new rotation, and it needs to figure out point guard play and needs to snap out of the recent rebounding funk. Personally, I think Teagan Moore and Jack Edelen need to play more. They have shown more than enough ability and proved themselves fully capable early in the season. When allowed, both showed flashes of goodness at UTEP.

There’s still a ton of season left for WKU Basketball. Ultimately, WKU needs one game lost from SHSU and NMSU and the Tops are in control of their own destiny in CUSA. That’s hardly a death sentence.

They need to get it together quickly, because 10-6 is probably not winning the CUSA regular season title, and positioning for seeding and avoiding good teams will be important in increasing any particular team’s chancing of winning. Now, every team makes the tournament, and every team seeds one through seven are on equal footing in terms of how many games they need to win. Seeds 1, 2, 7, 8, and 9 all get an extra day of rest between the quarterfinals and semis, a massive advantage. If WKU can be in that top two, it could prove crucial and provide a more “normal” feel to the schedule than three days in a row with no rest.

It remains to be seen what comes of WKU’s first season under Steve Lutz, but this sweep was perhaps the biggest blight on Steve Lutz’ nearly A+ performance thus far this season. There’s no question there’s been a big reset of expectations for this season. It’s fair to blame the coach for a sweep, especially considering the nature of how it happened.

However, ask yourself, Hilltopper Basketball fans, if we had said late January that WKU is 13-6, would you take it? I think you would. If that’s the case, and even if it’s not, it’s really outrageous to make a declarative statement over this team’s future. It’s time to possibly nurse this team back into confidence if necessary. But the pieces are there to make an impact in CUSA immediately.

Will it happn? Will WKU go ahead and have a magical season despite the misstep this weekend?

Stay tuned!