WKU Basketball: Tops Play Great First Half, Fall Victim to Known Weaknesses, Out of NCAA Tournament, 87-69 to Marquette
Western Kentucky went into halftime with a seven point lead, but WKU was outscored 54-26 in the final 21:41 of the game to lose seemingly routinely to Marquette.
Well, dang.
In what ultimately proved fairly predictable, Western Kentucky Men’s Basketball fell victim to Marquette by about the spread predicted by the oddsmakers. However, what unfolded during the game was nothing but.
First, WKU came out toe-to-toe with Marquette, despite recently injured second team All-American Tyler Kolek going wild early for double digit points and several rebounds. Then Marquette seemingly seized control, up nearly double digits at 28-19 with 7:52 remaining in the first half.
Not to be squashed early, WKU would use a 24-8 flourish (fueled by Tyrone Marshall, Jr.’s 17 first half points, six rebounds, and five assists) to actually lead at half, 43-36. WKU had a real chance to lead by double figures, leading 43-33 at 1:41. But a Don McHenry turnover at 1:00 left ont he clock and another missed three pointer from McHenry allowed Ben Gold and Tyler Kolek to squeak out three point to cut the WKU margin to seven heading into the break. Imagine how four or five more points’ margin may have helped stem the tide! (More on that later…)
So WKU goes into half with tons of momentum, but Marquette minimized the damage. As good teams do, Marquette immediately came out and had the game tied within three and a half minutes. with a 9-2 spurt. That would continue to 14-2 before Teagan Moore would make a couple of free throws with 14:09 remaining to cut the lead back to three, 53-50. WKU would battle back on a 5-0 mini-burst themselves to tie it back at 55-all.
From there, Marquette slowly eeked out the lead, trading threes for twos with WKU and getting a couple of stops. At 5:13, despite WKU not really doing much awfully wrong, the Tops found themselves down ten at 75-65. From there, Marquette took complete control, leading by as much as 20 at 87-67. Steve Lutz would sub in his bench at that point with 2:04 remaining, waving the white flag. Jack Edelen—who played his (generous) 5’11” heart out—deservingly finished with his second basket, something he had not done since playing Kentucky State on November 18.
The final score would stand at 87-69, and the Tops’ magical out-of-nowhere burst to a CUSA title was dampened by a quick exit in The Big Dance.
What Went Wrong
Bad Start: WKU started down nine, committing eight of its 11 first half turnovers in the first 10:46 of the first half. WKU would fairly well settle in from there from a turnover perspective, only committing ten more turnovers the rest of the game. However, even though WKU would go on a run to lead by seven, what if they hadn’t dug themselves a nine point hole through silly mistakes? Once again, the turnovers bit the Tops.
Weak finish to the first half: Although WKU went into the half up seven (Overall, a big, huge HALLELUJAH overall), Western had a chance with a couple of reasonable opportunities to go into halftime up at least nine, if not 12 or 13. A turnover and a missed three prevented that, and Marquette went in down only three possessions (43-36 WKU at half).
Poor start to the second: Marquette came straight out and tied the game and took a five point lead. During that time (6:31 of game time), WKU committed four more of its 18 turnovers. Again, WKU would come back and tie it and battle until Marquette busted it open late, but once again, what if? What if WKU had just taken care of the ball a little more?
Don McHenry had five turnovers: In critical moments, WKU’s de facto starting/secondary point guard (He and Khristian Lander split these duties) had the turnover bug. For just the second time this year, Don had five turnovers (vs. FIU 1/25/24). With 68 turnovers, this was an issue for Don all season, but five in the biggest game against a team that forces turnovers with pressure was not the right time to have one of his lesser games.
The stars didn’t shine: We already mentioned Don McHenry, who was under his scoring average and shot 33 percent from the field, but what about Rodney Howard (six points, seven rebounds)? What about Brandon Newman (0-8 FG, 0 points, below his average in rebounds)? What about Khristian Lander (3-10 FG, 7 points, 2 TO)? Of course, we’re not “coming at” these players, but when you need your best, your best players have to at least all play fairly well, or several of them need to have the performance of their life. That just didn’t happen.
Defensive Rebounding: WKU was good on the offensive glass, and they won the rebounding battle overall. However, watching it back simply skimming through, there were several possessions where WKU allowed someone to slip through and get an offensive board. A rough count would be five or so rebounds. Again, WKU ruled the boards, leading by as much as ten at one point. However, imagine if WKU had won the boards 49-32. It would have been much more difficult for Marquette to win with ease late. A perfect stat to illustrate this: Despite WKU’s dominant lead in rebounding, second chance points were dead even 13 apiece.
Tops shot fewest free throws all season by a wide margin: Previously, WKU’s lowest free throw total in a full game was 12, which happened three times all season, all losses. Regardless of how Topper fans may feel, WKU clearly needed to be more aggressive getting to the line than they were in this one. Six free throws attempted is ridiculous.
Tyler Kolek played great: I think most reasonable people would agree that previously injured Marquette point guard Tyler Kolek was a key factor in this one. He’s an All-American, and the Golden Eagles had been somewhat vulnerable without him. Well, in this one, he was wheeling and dealing, playing 38 minutes, scoring 18 on 13 field goal attempts, dishing out 11 assists, and even grabbing six boards, all while only committing two fouls and committing three turnovers. If he played great, Western was just really going to struggle to win.
Marquette’s “Big Four” Combined for all but 24 points, and all starters combined for all but eight points: You just can’t allow that to happen if you want to win. I didn’t even realize during the game, but Kam Jones went for 28 points on 16 shots. We mentioned Tyler Kolek’s efficiency. Oso Igodharo was the lone outlier in the starting lineup, only scoring four on seven shot attempts. However, David Joplin scored above his average, and Stevie Mitchell dropped in seven above his normal. The “Big Three” for MU combined for a 50-16-16 line with five blocks, a 2-to-1 assist to turnover ratio, and committed only four fouls. The starting lineup basically did everything, with only Ben Gold (8 points) doing anything of note from the bench.
Ice cold shooting combined with the opponent’s red hot shooting in the second half: That will help a team swing the margin by 28 every time. WKU shot 33 percent from two, and 16 percent from three in the second half. Marquette shot 56 and 47 percent respectively from three and two in the final 20 minutes. If WKU had a solid double digit lead heading into a performance like that, they maybe could have survived, but only being up seven, the Tops couldn’t afford to shoot that badly in the second half.
What Went Right
The Tops fought, despite several opportunities early to fold.
First half performance for the ages: Against a great team, WKU spotted the better team a nine point and still led by seven at the halftime break. Committing 11 turnovers, WKU was solidly ahead.
Tyrone Marshall’s first half: My goodness! In our preview article, we called for someone to step up and be great and score 20 or more. Well, Tyrone “Woo” Marshall’s 17-6-5 line in the first half singlehandedly put WKU up at the break. Unfortunately, Marquette cracked down on him, and no one else picked up his pace in the second half. The Nashville native did his part, stepping up when it mattered most.
Dontaie Allen played: Obviously, Dontaie Allen being available helped all kinds of things, one of which was just being a body for half of the game. The second was being efficient and playing solid basketball. Despite a sore knee, the man dropped in about his averages, exceeding expectations taking care of the ball with two assists to one turnover. I hope we remember this warrior effort! That’s a tough man.
We didn’t embarrass ourselves: For those numb wits that commented that WKU disappointed, you all can seriously go lick an electrical outlet. For those saying certain players are selfish, on behalf of them and their families, let me say this plainly (sorry to my peeps at church): SCREW YOU. Idiots! (Larry the Cable Guy voice, “Lord, I apologize…”)
Western Kentucky Basketball wasn’t talked about one bit during all of the selection show process; everyone just skimmed over Marquette/WKU. Everyone in America tuned in when 15 seed WKU was up on Marquette at halftime. And when the going got tough, WKU didn’t just fold. NO! They made two comebacks against a national title contender. Did Marquette finally seal the deal and pull away? Sure! But for those saying WKU “folded”, remember Marquette and WKU traded baskets until Marquette had squeaked out a ten point lead after WKU had tied it/taken the lead twice in the game. Five ties and four lead changes means this game was not a walk in the park. We acquitted ourselves well, and we were the one 15 seed (or 16 seed for that matter) that had a prayer in March Madness this year.
Steve Lutz’s Accomplishments
In three seasons a Division I head coach, Steve Lutz is 3-0 at getting his team to the NCAA Tournament. He inherited a messy end to last season and some holdovers from the Stansbury roster, cobbled it together with high character, high intelligence individuals, and made it work despite a combined propensity as a team to lose focus. Somehow he pulled the Tops together and got them to play like the team many thought they could be in the four most important games of the year.
WKU wins 22 games for the first time since 2017-18 and only the second time since 2008-09. One common theme when WKU wins 22 games: Generally, it comes with success in the postseason. The last three times were a Round of 32 appearance, an NIT semifinal appearance, and an 11 year drought snapping NCAA Tournament appearance.
Since E.A. Diddle, only three coaches did not reach 22 wins in one season: Ray Harper, Gene Keady, and Jim Richards. If Steve Lutz wins 22 or more next year, he would join E.A. Diddle, Johnny Oldham, Dennis Felton, and Darrin Horn as the only coaches in WKU history with two 22+ win seasons.
Despite losing his two players he brought from TAMU-Corpus Christi (Jalen Jackson and Terrion Murdix), who both would have played great defense and helped WKU at the small guard positions, WKU still was able to hold opponents under 42 percent shooting, under 32 percent from three, and had a positive turnover margin.
Despite not having a “rim protector” type of player on the roster, WKU was able to dominate the paint this season, making 153 more two point baskets than its opponents while outrebounding opponents by 3.4 boards per game.
Steve Lutz played ten players or so all season. Despite having a cobbled together roster and having to play a severely undersized freshman walk-on with offensive scoring deficiency, Steve Lutz found a way to get really good things out of so many different players.
WKU was the number one adjusted pace offense in the country and owned that distinction all season.
Western Kentucky survived four impactful injuries to its guards and wings (Murdix, Jackson, Lander, and Allen) and still found ways to win.
Moving Forward
We’re back, baby.
The drought is over. The expectations are back, and hopefully this “oh well” mentality from WKU’s fan base leaves as the expectations rise. WKU used to have a fan base that just knew WKU was going to win. It didn’t always happen, but when we walked into Hot Springs or MTSU or Birmingham or New Orleans, we walked in expecting a championship.
That’s how it should be going forward. A lot of people lost faith. A lot of people surrendered their season tickets, and that is completely understandable, frankly. However, it is time for WKU to make its move back on to the national stage. It is time for everyone to know again, “Hey that Western Kentucky program is pretty good.” When they look at the WKU resume, they’re always impressed. When they visit Diddle Arena, they’re blown away. All of that is fine and good, but WKU is not on the forefront of the minds of the college basketball world.
For those that say it can’t happen or that the days have passed where you can just plug and play, I kindly invite you to rethink your position. It just happened! Steve Lutz came in inheriting an ok core but needing tons of good players to even field a team that could pull out a winning season.
He did it, and all the while, he exceeded expectations, with the exception of a four game losing streak at the end of the regular season. Then again, nevermind, because winning a conference championship completely exceeded all expectations in year one. It was the thrill of a generation of Topper fans that have grown up not really knowing how great WKU Basketball is. Topper fans 11 years old or less have never seen WKU in the tourney, and they’ve never seen Bowling Green show out like it did this past week.
It’s so nice, and guess what? Pending NCAA approval (womp womp), WKU could return everyone but Rodney Howard. Now, will WKU really keep everyone? Probably not? But gosh if they did…I’d run it back with some big guys and get the little fellas healthy and WKU could easily repeat and be a much higher seed next year.
Conference USA has several teams that could compete next year, like Sam Houston, La Tech, UTEP, Kennesaw State, Liberty (if all of their players don’t leave), and New Mexico State. It won’t be a cake walk, and I’m sure there’s another team or two in there that will probably flirt with a good seed. CUSA could be loaded next year, now that I think about it. The conference was already 15th in most metrics, which is quite an achievement for a league decimated by departures. Shoot, the only teams I didn’t name were Jax State (always dangerous with Ray Harper), MTSU (semifinalist), and FIU (well-coached and had serious injuries this past year).
That being said, isn’t WKU the absolute favorite as long as the Tops land a decent roster? They have to be the shoe-in, runaway favorite next year. They finished ahead of schedule this year, and the team we thought might give WKU the most trouble of all (Liberty) has a huge hill to climb to get back to true contention.
With NCAA Tournament momentum spurring on the Tops, surely it will be Sam Houston (who only has three seniors, none of which were elite players) and WKU as the two frontrunners.
It remains to be seen how rosters shake out, who transfers in and out, and what each team may look like heading in to next season. However, the future is bright, and the expectations to repeat are now the question for next year. And also, can WKU earn an at-large bid next year and not need the conference tournament?
Think about this: WKU probably loses to Wichita State no matter what. Snakebitten, tough environment, early in the year, etc. Other than that, WKU had leads in just about every other game, including double digit leads in several losses. Western was some focus away from maybe five losses this season? Now, the Tops did play a weak schedule. Yes they certainly did. Well, now that WKU has made the tournament, doors should open up for better competition, be it mid-major teams, preseason tournaments, or Power Five schools willing to work something out.
With a returning coach with a shining resume, the bargaining chips are there for all kinds of scheduling opportunities, as well as possibly landing some star recruits that make it irresistible to schedule the Tops. I believe Lutz and company chose a softer schedule this year for a reason, and it worked out to perfection. They still avoided a 16 seed with a weak schedule, and had room to improve the seed as realistically high as 13 with the current team available.
I fully anticipate WKU to attempt to land some bigger time games. Will they? Honestly, it may be a complete shutout, because of how much WKU did underachieve last season. That may be true. WKU was a Quad 3 loss for 22 teams this year despite winning 22 games. To the 12 teams that beat them, they were a Quad 3 win. Yippee, right?
So we’ll see how all of these layers shake out. Here’s the thing, though: WKU’s fans need to step up. Diddle should be sold out. Students should be in the stands. Fans should travel reasonable distances to go see road games. Huntsville should be all red next year.
That covers attendance. The other thing people need to do…
Give.
Give to Red Towel Trust.
Give to HAF.
Advertise your business.
Give to whatever you’re passionate about at WKU. Shoot, give to the history department or the forensics team! Who cares where your money goes, as long as it goes to help WKU have some cash flow and be able to keep this thing going in the right direction? Do you love WKU or not?
To quote the great Steve Lutz, “What the hell else have you got to do?”
Hopefully enrollment rises for the first time in years. Encourage your kids and family to go to WKU.
It’s time for us to make our move back to national prominence. And for those saying that’s ridiculous, check recent history. Check ancient history. Check your attitude, if I may say so. Whatever you need to check, there is zero reason WKU can’t be a perennial NCAA Tournament participant and make a real run every other year.
It’s time.
We’ll do our part to bring you great WKU content and “Spread the Red”, to bring back an oldie but a goodie.
Will you?
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Great to be back in THE tournament!