WKU Basketball: Tops Struggle Offensively First Half, Exact Revenge Over NMSU, 72-58

It seemed like just about everything WKU did offensively didn't work, but the Tops still hung with a very game NMSU team in the first 20. The offense clicked in second half and the Tops clamped down.

Western Kentucky Basketball is rolling.

Winners of five straight and four of five by double digits, WKU (19-7, 8-4 CUSA) is now in a three team battle with Sam Houston State (15-11, 8-3 CUSA) and Louisiana Tech (18-8, 8-3 CUSA) for the coveted top seed in Conference USA. Without doubt, the top two seeds matter, as they get a day’s break from action in the middle of the tournament (Winners of 1-8-9 and 2-7 matchups will play Wednesday, break Thursday, and play semifinals Friday, March 15. The 3-6 and the 4-5 matchups will play Thursday and face a rested and likely better opponent Friday.

With all three teams winning this week, they each find themselves with at least a 2.5 game cushion on the rest of the field with four (or five) to play. It would be an epic collapse for any of these three to lose enough to drop below the three seed.

The CUSA Race Dynamics

To quickly summarize, the three aforementioned teams are within a half game of each other in the standings. SHSU has the upper hand, having already beaten Western Kentucky twice and defeated La Tech in its lone matchup. That alone means, SHSU will beat either if they stand equal in the standings at year’s end. WKU can jump La Tech no matter what by winning out (including beating La Tech in Diddle next Wednesday), but needs SHSU to lose two games in five to fully jump the Bearkats seed-wise.

La Tech will need to finish ahead of SHSU in the loss column, and if they split with WKU, it will be a toss-up as to who gets the tiebreaker between those two schools.

Of the three, La Tech has the toughest road, playing both WKU and SHSU again, as well as going out West to play UTEP and NMSU and hosting MTSU to end the year. None of those look to be laydown victories for the Bulldogs. SHSU also has to go out west and plays La Tech, so they’re not necessarily simply sitting pretty, either.

However, they have two other home games against Middle and JSU that should probably pad the win column. WKU perhaps has the second easiest road despite needing to accomplish less with one less game to play. WKU is on the road for three of four, and the lone home game is against La Tech. The computers like WKU decisively in only one of the remaining four games, while distinctly disliking the Tops vs. La Tech and at Liberty.

In other words, this race probably comes down to who wins what games they should and how La Tech does against the other two contenders. Or who can break the trend and win on the road?

WKU Asphyxiates NMSU, Cruises in Second Half

Western Kentucky had a 23 point second half lead against NMSU in Las Cruces and lost it. In the grudge match Saturday, the Tops would neither have a 23 point lead, nor lose it. In the first half, it was almost as if the Hilltoppers were just a little bit snakebit. They were definitely a little flat, but they also just couldn’t buy a bucket or get a roll. On top of the offensive issues, NMSU was making buckets and playing good defense.

In many ways, WKU bided its time, so to speak. Finally, Enoch Kalambay (11 points) and others (like freshman Teagan Moore) sparked the Tops late in the first half, and despite a paltry performance, the Tops were tied at halftime.

Coming out in the second half, WKU’s depth was on display. There was one stretch where zero starters were in (WKU played 11 players in a competitive conference game), and the bench guys went +5 in a two minute stretch to extend the lead and frankly ice the game away. From that point forward, starters sprinkled back in and helped finish off the Aggies, 72-58.

What Went Right

• Defense Wins Championships: WKU has massively improved its defense the last three games. WKU has given up 59, 80 (I’ll explain), and 58. Those were the only two games WKU allowed less than 60, including four non-Division I opponents. The 80 was against a UTEP team Western allowed to score 93 in El Paso, so even that performance is a drastic improvement in less than a month. If WKU wants to actually win the tournament in Huntsville, the Tops will have to win at a slower pace for at least one of those three victories. They may be able to run some, but when everybody is tired, everybody slows down. The Hilltoppers have shown they can win at a slow pace as well as their typical top-pace-in-the-country speed.

• Balance: WKU had seven players score at least nine, but none of those scored more than 12. No one else scored, but for example, Tyrone Marshall, Jr., had zero points and struggle from the field, yet had five rebounds, two steals, five assists, and two turnovers. Khristian Lander didn’t score, but had three rebounds, three assists, and two steals. Everyone who came into the game did a little something.

• Point guards being point guards: WKU’s three “point guards” (Lander, Don McHenry, and Jack Edelen) only had two combined turnovers in 44 combined minutes. McHenry and Lander have been especially turnover prone, but they kept that in check this game.

• Taking care of the basketball: Although this was a slower pace, WKU only turning the ball over 11 times is a big deal this season. Since Jalen Jackson’s injury, WKU has severely struggled taking care of the basketball. Anything under 15 turnovers likely means a Topper win. Although it’s not quite indicative of the difference it makes, WKU is 5-3 when turning it over more than 15 times. The Tops are 15-3 when they keep it at 15 or less. If WKU can eliminate silly turnovers, they will win Conference USA.

• Moore of that!: Teagan Moore has scored at least six in all but two Conference USA games. His season average has bumped up from a very average 3.4 points per game to a difference making 5.6. In addition, despite the ninth most minutes and six games missed due to coaches’ decision, Teagan is likely going to pass Dontaie Allen and Tyrone Marshall and move into the top six free throw shooters on the team by season’s end.

• Rebounding +12: That’ll do, Tops. That’ll do.

• 3-point defense: At 28%, it’s tough to combat a team with offensive firepower. WKU didn’t play its greatest game, but NMSU needed a good night from deep to be in it late and they just couldn’t get a few more to fall, mainly because WKU’s perimeter defense was solid to good all night.

What Went Wrong

• McHenry’s Streak Ends: This may not actually be a bad thing, because there was so much balance to replace his production. Nonetheless, a big standout stat was the fact that Don McHenry did not score 20. One thing you would like to see is if a player like Don doesn’t score his usual, did he contribute elsewhere? He was certainly solid all night, but he only produced one rebound, one assist and one steal. He did take care of the ball, though, a huge positive for him.

• Marshall, Lander, and Edelen all played double digit minutes but produced zero points on seven shots. Again, they contributed elsewhere, but two of those three are scorers, and Edelen sure could use a little bit of offense to raise his value to the team. He could borderline start if he would score a little bit.

• Low energy start: Although WKU’s defense was not bad to start, and the Tops were obviously having some bad bounces, the Hilltoppers’ effort and intensity level was questionable for most of the first half. WKU responded, took control, and eventually won, but that slow start almost did them in during the first 12 or so minutes of the first half. The Tops still can work on their intensity moment-to-moment. The most likely team to win in Huntsville is the team that can be the most consistent regardless of the environment throughout the game.

• 3-Point Shooting: The Tops went 5-of-19 from deep in this one. Although it didn’t end up mattering, only Brandon Newman and Enoch Kalambay had good nights from deep. Everyone else didn’t attempt a three or didn’t make more than one-third of their outside shots.

Topper Tidbits

• WKU is one win away from a 20 win season for the first time since 2020-21.

• WKU has won five games in a row since winning eight in a row earlier this year. This is also the first time since 2020-21 that WKU had multiple five game win streaks in the same season.

• WKU just needs three wins to eclipse all but one year under Rick Stansbury 2017-18. To eclipse that season, WKU would likely need a trip to a postseason tournament, needing to win 28 to pass the 27-11 mark set that year.

• Teagan Moore won Conference USA Freshman of the Week, averaging 14 points between the two games vs. UTEP and NMSU.

• Don McHenry did not win CUSA Player of the Week this week, mainly because Jestin Porter of MTSU scored 26 or more twice this past week, dropping in 41 in double OT to squeak one out against UTEP Saturday. Jestin Porter joins Don McHenry and Kyle Rode (Liberty) to be the only two time winners of CUSA POTW thus far this season.

• WKU cannot finish lower than seventh in CUSA no matter what happens the rest of the season. With a win against MTSU, WKU would solidify no worse than a four seed with three games to play.

Up Next: Middle Tennessee

Speaking of MTSU, the Blue Raiders once looked like a team destined for the 8-9 game, but they have clawed their way a full game out of that matchup, with five other teams tied with or behind them in the standings. MTSU could easily end up fourth in CUSA somehow after frankly a horrendous season thus far. Senior guard Camryn West suffered a season-ending knee injury in game two of the season, and Middle never really got on track…until recently.

At 11-15 and sub-.500 (5-6) in conference play, to the untrained eye, Middle is a pushover and the Tops should win by double digits. With a little more observation, Middle has not been terrible, even when they were losing. They have plenty of talent, and although head coach Nick McDivitt may have faced some heat this season, MTSU is capable of doing whatever they want in CUSA, especially in a one-off situation like a home game against the arch rival. Now they’re riding a three game winning streak (pending their game at Jacksonville State Wednesday), including a road win (tough to do in CUSA) at FIU.

Now, that could also be fool’s gold, because they beat a bad team by two and needed overtime and a close battle to beat two teams who traveled several flight hours who hardly ever win a game away from their arena. Eighth place JSU may beat their brakes off Wednesday. Who am I to guess at that? Conference USA is weird.

But I would caution every person who looks at this as a “plopsided” matchup, as my 4- and 5-year-old girls would say. It’s definitely not “plopsided”, folks. ESPN gives MTSU a 37% chance to win, meaning this is likely closer to a coin flip than a blowout. Western will have had a full week to prepare, but is that a good thing? Middle will have an extra day than a normal Thursday/Saturday setup, playing at Jacksonville State Wednesday, so both teams should be fairly well-rested.

MTSU has three very capable scorers on their team, all of various shapes and sizes, and the aforementioned Jestin Porter is making a late-season rush at CUSA All-Conference with his two Player of the Week Honors in the last month or so.

Middle will junk it up, slow the game down some, and play tough on the perimeter (31.8% 3 PT Defense).

Regardless, this is perhaps the most excited I think WKU’s fan base has been when it was time to head to Middle and go get a W in a while. There’s also zero reason someone can’t attend both the women’s game and then make it south of Nashville by 6:30 Saturday. I would guess the last time close to this level of anticipation was 2017-18 when WKU was vying for a resume-building road win against Kermit Davis.

Expect a bunch of red in the “Glass House” Saturday, and if you can make both the women’s game at 11 AM in Diddle and then pull the double down to Smurfreesboro, do it!

There’s nothing like meeting Western fans away from home base. Not much creates a bigger unspoken bond than going into enemy territory and trying to get a W for the Tops.

BEAT MIDDLE!