WKU Basketball: Week 6 - State of Conference USA
Conference USA Men's Basketball seems to be incredibly deep this season. Who has set themselves apart and who ultimately comes out on top?
2020-21 was a quagmire in Conference USA for myriad reasons. The conference was down just because of cyclical reasons. The season before, tons of experience left the conference by way of a combination of transfer and graduation, and new faces emerged.
No team had less than seven losses overall, and no program had less than three losses in conference. In other words, there was no dominant team. With games being canceled due to COVID quarantining and scrambling around trying to figure out possibilities for games at the last minute, the whole season was a mess, and trying to understand the conference standings is borderline pointless.
WKU led the East Division last year at 11-3, but Old Dominion happened to play two more games and finished at 11-5. So who is really to say WKU wouldn’t have lost the two extra games they didn’t play? We’ll never know.
On the West side, La Tech and UAB were the two premier teams, but North Texas actually ended up establishing itself as a real contender late in the season and winning the conference tournament against WKU in an overtime thriller.
Here’s how it went last year…
The format of the tournament will be exactly the same as 2021. Teams will be seeded according to their finish within their division. Instead of using the ridiculous system where all conference teams aren’t even scheduled to play all other teams, scheduling goes back to normal, where all teams will play all teams, and all division teams will play each other twice, or at least that’s the plan. Obviously, COVID-19 still rears its ugly head. Several teams had to reschedule non-conference games. Several C-USA games, mostly during the first weekend, were rescheduled due to COVID protocol. This has not been a major issue the past few weeks, and now, we get into all of the makeup games, of which there have already been four completed early this week. We cross our fingers hoping for pure basketball and that we can actually have a legitimate set of standings at the end of the year, but how will all of these rescheduled games affect fatigue to end the season? For example, FAU played Southern Miss Saturday, played Old Dominion Tuesday, and plays WKU on short rest on the road Thursday. That’s three games in six days, a tough stretch.
As you can see, the Top two seeds from each division will earn byes, so the West Division, which seems to be by far the stronger division top to bottom, will be a tight race between several teams with a realistic shot to make it. The East will also be interesting, since two teams somehow have to separate themselves from the others. With WKU winning two in a row, they now somewhat join the race with the easiest schedule remaining in the conference. But ODU, WKU, and Charlotte need to get right quickly or MTSU and FAU could really begin to separate themselves with a few more wins. Right now, FAU and MTSU would slot in to the 1 and 2 slots in the East, but the conference season is just past halfway, and it’s now getting down to a few spare opposite division games and then inter-division battles.
In the West, North Texas has put itself in poll position, leading by a game and a half or more over UAB, La Tech, and UTEP. Rice may be on the fringe of contention for a bye, but they are a full four games back from North Texas and 2.5 back from second. With six to eight games remaining, they could make a run, but it needs to come quickly for the likes of UTEP and Rice.
Current C-USA Standings
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Conference USA is actually really strong this year. Only four teams have losing records overall. Now, did the teams play competitive schedules? Judging by the numbers and opponents within those numbers, some did and some did not, as per usual. But the overall non-conference records are really nice for a mid-major conference, and they are all very well-balanced. Conference RPI has C-USA at 12th, the higher end of normal since conference realignment years ago. No team had less than three losses, but no team had more than eight losses heading into C-USA play. Now, certainly the truth is being found out in conference play about who was hiding their quality (ahem, FIU and Marshall), but the conference can boast an attempt to not only play higher quality conference opponents, but can also say that the conference has some quality wins. We’ll get into each team’s merits below.
For now, suffice it to say that each team in C-USA has shown an ability to win, but unexpectedly, both divisions’ top five teams are no more than four games apart with between six to eight games to play.
TeamRankings.com has UAB as the odds-on favorite to win Conference USA right now. However, UAB now sits down a game and a half in the standings after inexplicably losing to winless Marshall a week and a half ago. UNT stacked another quality win against UTEP, a team that is firmly in the hunt for a decent seed. La Tech has fallen down significantly, losing to FAU Thursday as well as barely hanging on at FIU. Considered as one of the four teams with similar chances in March, La Tech is now significantly behind both UNT and UAB in the standings and in the computer projections. La Tech joins the rest of the conference with no more than a 10% chance to win C-USA, according to the latest projections. But big picture, the West is likely a four team race, but don’t count Rice completely out. If La Tech slides a little more and Rice and UTEP find a few upsets, while La Tech is only a couple of games out of first, they’re also only a couple of games out of essentially being the conference’s 9 seed.
In the East, FAU and MTSU seem to be the class of the division at this point. However, WKU just snapped its five game losing streak, has survived some injury scares, and gets FAU at home on short rest Thursday. If WKU could possibly beat the Owls, there’s no question WKU has the easiest schedule remaining of anyone. Old Dominion and Charlotte are also in the equation, but with recent losses, much like WKU, they need to get going immediately or FAU and Middle will end up the top two seeds. If WKU does beat FAU, all of a sudden, the race gets way more interesting for everybody.
This will be the first time I’ve split the conference into its divisions. Now that we’re ten or so games into the season, we’ve got enough info to know where everybody basically stands. For example, North Texas physically can’t be a sixth or seventh seed. We’re starting to get a little more solidified, and most teams will not make massive swings from high to low or low to high seeds. The time to move is now if somebody is going to make their move. And for the sake of the high seeds, now is not the time to start losing unexpectedly.
Remember, each division gets its own seeding, so the fact that three teams in the West have better records than anyone in the East means nothing. Just like UTEP would be the fifth overall seed in years passed a half game out of a bye, now they sit as the de facto seven seed and are a game and a half out of a bye at this moment.
To explain further, for example, MTSU could win the East Division at 10-8, be fifth overall, and still get the East’s #1 seed because they finish atop the mess that is the East. I’m still going to rank these teams according to how I feel for now. This will not be directly according to the standings, although if we don’t know enough, I’m just sticking to the standings order.
C-USA East
1E. FAU
FAU looked a mess within the first couple of weeks. But since then, FAU is on fire, beating several of the possible contenders. Most recently, FAU controlled La Tech, albeit in Boca, winning by ten and dropping in 83. Now, is La Tech fading? We shall see. Perhaps the win against them will end up being not as impressive simply because they will fall out of contention. But for now, beating La Tech is a statement. And then the Owls absolutely embarrassed Old Dominion. The final score was a margin of 19, but FAU led by as many as 33 with 8:42 left. Like Towel Rack said on Twitter over weekend: Folks, I think it’s time to accept that FAU is just a really good team. FAU winning C-USA would be an incredible story. The Owls have one NCAA appearance in their history (2002) and one regular season championship (2011). If they keep going, they could change both of those numbers in 2022.
2E. MTSU
Middle is absolutely the surprise team of 2021-22. Middle has been wretched since Kermit Davis left. Well, Middle is back to being a borderline contender, and certainly if they get a top two seed in the East, which they look likely to do at this point, they will have a leg up on ten other programs come tournament time. I’m sure all the Smurfs down in SMurfville are excited. Middle has a legit chance and an easy enough schedule to be one of the top two seeds, without question. MTSU probably has the easiest schedule besides WKU going forward according to ESPN’s BPI. Middle will be favored in most games. But none of those games are gimmes, either. Can they execute? It certainly seems like this has turned into their year to get back to a top tier program in C-USA barring an epic collapse.
Middle should get off to a good start with Charlotte and ODU at home and then a trip to FIU. Then it gets much more difficult, going to FAU, getting UTEP at home, then what should be a gimme at home against Marshall, and then WKU in the Glass House. The Blue Raiders finish their season on the East Coast, at Charlotte and at Old Dominion. The obvious key to Middle getting a bye: Sweep this week at home. Winning these next two would put them at least two games ahead of the third seed with seven games to go for them. If they lose, one of these two this week, I would go so far as to say they may not even get a bye. It’s that tenuous in C-USA this year.
3E. WKU
Western Kentucky. Oh boy. I take a bit of a leap here putting WKU third, but ODU now stands even with WKU and Charlotte is probably going to lose Thursday against La Tech and will need to beat WKU at home and finish with a better record than the Tops to finish ahead of them in the standings (more on Charlotte below). Obviously at Towel Rack, we know the most about WKU because we cover their every move. However, I think it’s safe to say this team probably will not win Conference USA this year unless they really turn it on. Here’s the crazy thing: Unless WKU completely melts down, they will be favored in all but one game (at MTSU 2/26). Now, WKU is notorious for losing games it shouldn’t. Frankly, the entire conference does that on the regular. It’s a C-USA tradition.
But if WKU can find a past FAU, does the schedule not open up nicely for WKU? WKU goes to UTSA and USM, two teams with a combined two wins in C-USA. Then the aforementioned matchup with Charlotte in Diddle, Old Dominion, at Middle, and then at Marshall and home for Senior night in Diddle Arena against the Herd. Shouldn’t WKU be a solid favorite in every game but at Middle? And that game will probably be a coin flip. The problem is WKU is 4-6 and three games down in the loss column and possibly down a tiebreaker or two, so I think Western goes on a run but loses one or two and ends up as the three seed in the East.
4E. Charlotte
Charlotte is still in pretty good position in the standings, sitting just outside of the top two seeds in the East. However, the schedule is brutal from here. Charlotte has already stacked wins against the likes of FIU, Marshall, Old Dominion, Rice, and others. They actually had some nice wins, most impressively against UTEP and Rice. However, Thursday, they get to figure out Archibald and Lofton from La Tech, albeit at home. La Tech is 6-3 on the road this season, so it will not be an easy task. If Charlotte could beat La Tech, first of all that suggests that they’re better than we think, but it would also check off a huge question mark on their schedule. Even if they beat La Tech, they may still be chasing FAU and MTSU.
They go to Middle, to Western, to Marshall, get what should be a win at home against FIU, FAU at home, MTSU at home, and then go on the road for what should be a cakewalk against USM. So there are two wins out there for sure. Other than that, they may be slightly favored at Marshall. Other than that, they’re going to have to play like an absolute team of destiny. It’s a tough road for the 49ers without question. But it’s doable. Beating Middle twice and beating La Tech Thursday would be massive for their chances. Charlotte needs at minimum a winning record to finish the season, meaning no more than three losses.
5E. Old Dominion
Well, Old Dominion is back firmly in the bottom half of C-USA. For a little bit, they looked like they may make a run at being a factor, but the 9-14 Monarchs just don’t seem to have it. Sure, they could turn it around, but the trend right now is down. I still wouldn’t count them out come tournament time, but they, just like Charlotte, have the toughest schedule going forward. They still have both UAB and La Tech, as well as playing Middle twice and FAU one more time. In addition, two more road games make seven of the last nine games are at minimum difficult tasks.
6E. FIU
FIU has a win against WKU, and they have a good overall record. Other than that, there’s not much FIU has done to show they’re actually going to do anything. I honestly think FIU is one of the more talented teams, but for whatever reason, C-USA is really talented this year and they’re getting shuffled to the back of the pack. Disrespect FIU at your peril, though. They can score in bunches and have good size. FIU almost beat La Tech at home this past week. I believe FIU is well coached and has enough talent to beat anyone if the shots fall and the other team doesn’t produce. Although FIU sits at 3-8 and will probably finish sixth, this team is capable.
7E. Marshall
Marshall has one win, and that is against a team that is on track to get a bye. So obviously Marshall has it in them to beat anyone, but the Thundering Herd, picked to finish fourth overall in C-USA by the league’s head coaches, just hasn’t remotely lived up to the expectations. Since Marshall is WKU’s travel partner, Marshall also has a very easy schedule. The difference: Marshall plays WKU twice, and WKU plays Marshall twice. That makes their schedule probably the third easiest in all of C-USA going forward. But Marshall is in such a hole that it’s hard to see them overcoming a three game deficit when they’ve only won one game so far in conference.
State of C-USA East: Are FAU and MTSU Really the Class of the East?
I still can’t believe it. But the Owls and Blue Raiders continue to win, and everyone else either needs them to fall or is quickly fading. Charlotte is right there with them, but they really do have a brutal back half of their schedule. They’re going to have to prove to be the best team in the entire league if they’re going to finish at the top. MTSU has one of the easiest schedules remaining, likely being favored in all but one or two remaining games. In my opinion, they should finish in first, simply by winning what is in front of them. FAU has proven it’s really good, though. Beating La Tech is a feat no one besides the best teams in the West have done. So the quality is there for FAU. They can really score at a high level.
After MTSU and FAU sits Charlotte a half game back, and ODU and WKU sitting at 4-6. The question remains of these two: Are they any good? Is it a fluke that either is 4-6 or is it just who they are at this point? Charlotte just needs to win games, but they have the toughest draw. If we do not see MTSU and FAU falter in the next week or two, I think any hopes of anyone besides the current top two dethroning them at the top really gets thrown into the ditch. It’s still possible, but the time for those teams to lose is now. Otherwise, they solidify their leads and will cruise to a no-brainer March. FIU and Marshall sit pretty much at the bottom. Marshall is nearly locked in as a bottom two seed, but FIU only sits a game and a half out of a tie for fourth. That could get interesting, but the Golden Panthers need to show some quality immediately or they’ll quickly fade out of it. I have a feeling both WKU and ODU will win at least a few more games. FIU probably needs to win four or more games to finish anywhere but sixth in the East.
So out of respect, I leave FAU at the top of the heap in the East, but I do believe Middle will probably overtake the Owls, simply because of schedule. But FAU has definitely proven itself with really good wins. Could FAU win its first conference championship in 11 years? Could they make it into the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 20?
Conference USA West
1W. North Texas
I’ve talked in these articles about how North Texas has a puncher’s chance because of their coaching. Let me correct myself: North Texas is proving they are the real favorite to win C-USA. They’ve earned it. With UAB losing two games they shouldn’t have and La Tech losing to all of the top players (UAB, UNT, and FAU), North Texas is currently the leader in the clubhouse. However, I still have two deep concerns: Can they score enough if somebody can make a few shots? What about their depth? They don’t score much into the 70s, but they also don’t allow 70. The most they allowed all season was against Kansas, who managed 71 against the Mean Green. Anytime UNT gives up more than 65, they lose. Anytime it’s been 65 or less, they win. A team that beats them needs to be extremely efficient or superior athletically. Otherwise, you have no chance. North Texas has a brutal schedule forthcoming, with 5-of-7 road games to finish the year and also five of the seven games coming against teams with winning records in conference. If they happen to win the one or two seed in the West, wow. They will have earned it. It’s also worthwhile to mention that UNT certainly has a lot on the line each night. Sitting at 51 or so in the NET rankings, the Mean Green still have hope of finding their way in to the tournament in other ways besides winning it all in March. They’re also working on being a stone cold lock for the NIT at minimum. If they get the #1 overall seed in C-USA, they’ll be guaranteed some type of postseason invitation. Each game will count more towards each of those goals going forward.
2W. UAB
UAB is clearly the most accomplished team in C-USA so far this season, and they seemed the most impressive on paper heading into the season. UAB has quality losses in West Virginia (by 6), San Francisco (by 2), and South Carolina (by 3). Losing to Rice and Marshall are mysterious, though, considering they’ve beaten all of the main favorites they have played. In fact, they’ve beaten everyone else besides the names listed above. UAB is well coached, has a superstar with a cool nickname (Jelly), and should probably still be considered the favorite on a neutral court against everyone in C-USA. Despite the two really bad losses in conference, UAB still sits at 39 in the NET Rankings and has a few opportunities to get a few more quad 1 and quad 2 wins. With the brutal West Division, every road to success will be tough. UAB does have it easier than North Texas, though. So watch for UAB to possibly pull ahead by the end of the year. I’m still picking UNT to win just because they have some games already in hand.
3W. La Tech
This team is still extremely solid, experienced, and fully capable of winning C-USA and going on a run in the NCAA Tournament. Not only is Kenneth Lofton, Jr., a double-double machine, he also has help this season. Amorie Archibald and others provide significant help for the young big man. But La Tech has definitely established itself as maybe a second-tier option as a potential champion. La Tech has losses to the other three top teams in Conference USA and zero wins, but also is 8-0 against “the others”. Without question, in order to be considered a true favorite, the Bulldogs need to get an upset or two to be taken really seriously as a true championship contender. But watch out for these guys. All they need is some head-to-head wins and they’re destined for a bye.
4W UTEP
UTEP is really interesting to me. They are always a team that looks like it has something in the non-conference part of the schedule and then fades completely away into oblivion. This season, that could happen again simply because of bad luck. Being in the West, five teams are probably better than the East’s top two teams. Or at least they may end up with a better record. UTEP is really a big threat, because they play all of their West opponents and they only sit two games out of second. That’s not that much. One or two upsets and the scales tip their way. But also, they are a few losses away from melting way down into fifth place. They’re also only one game ahead of Rice. So although they’re in a precarious position, even if they melt down completely, they’re not going much lower than they are. But the potential to steal a few and move up significantly is distinctly possible.
5W. Rice
Despite beating UAB, Rice still hasn’t done enough to prove it’s a true top-flight C-USA team just yet. They have come back to earth and actually sit behind UTEP at this point in fifth. Now that the season has played out, poor Rice looks like an average team. But I would honestly challenge any East team to beat this Rice team in the C-USA Tournament. They’ll be a tough out. Sitting three games down from a bye and down several tiebreakers to multiple teams, Rice needs to get it going immediately or they will sit no higher than third in a dream scenario. Rice usually finishes about this spot, but I guarantee you this team is way better than some of those ninth seeded (or so) Rice teams that were big and annoying but not talented. This year, they can play and would be a good representative of C-USA in March.
6W. USM
Southern Miss has a one point win over UTSA, and that is about all that is that positive about the Golden Eagles. 6-16 overall and 1-8 in C-USA is not what they had in mind, I’m sure. But here they are. Southern Miss does seem to be solidifying itself as one of the worst teams in the conference, and within as few as two weeks, they could already be eliminated from hope of getting to a five seed or better. With the sixth or lower seed, those two teams from each division would face off in the first round of the C-USA Tournament in order to even be considered a top 12 team in C-USA. Then they would still have to win four games in four days after that. The only way USM likely factors into any kind of discussion in C-USA is by providing an upset on the road to the championship.
7W. UTSA
UTSA is already guaranteed no more than six conference wins. That’s if they swept after starting 1-11 in conference play. Bruh that ain’t happening. This means if Rice wins one game the rest of the year, UTSA is mathematically eliminated from doing anything but playing spoiler and hoping to outduel Southern Miss in the first round. It’s sad to see such a brilliant and well thought out choice by the AAC just…struggle to even show up every night, bless their hearts. I’m sure that San Antonio media market is just…to die for, though! You hate to see it.
State of Conference USA West: 5-on-2
I have been saying all year that any one of five teams are pretty good and the other two are awful. Well, that is proving true. I think it really is just massively unfortunate that Conference USA decided to stick with divisions. If they didn’t, the West teams would all be competing for byes. Now only two of the five (instead of four of the five) can get byes if they earn it.
Now, within this five are three levels. I believe Rice, although solid, sits at the bottom of the heap of five. I believe UTEP and La Tech are now relatively even and will settle their score based on their head-to-head. And I believe La Tech and UAB are going to duke it out at the top. I could be wrong, but that’s how it feels to me.
I believe the key to sorting out this compilation of quality is going to be a combination of upsets and head-to-head. At this point, everybody pretty much plays everybody. But also, if La Tech loses at Charlotte and at home to UTEP in the next week and a half, all of a sudden, that changes the whole dynamic. If North Texas all of a sudden loses two in a row, now the race opens up completely. If UAB loses two or three more, my goodness, how things change in terms of expectations, at-larges, and tournament possibilities! UAB could go from having options to having to win four games in four days. North Texas could, as well, but they do have the advantage of two more wins already notched in the win column than anyone else.
The West race should be fascinating, and I think the lookers on would be remiss not to still consider this a five horse race fighting for two spots.
Overall State of C-USA: Ten-Four
There are still ten teams legitimately alive for a crack at a top four seed. As crazy as that sounds, it’s true. This Conference USA season has been crazy, and it’s not because every team is mediocre. There are some very good teams that will finish near the bottom of the league. It seems like every program just decided to be good this year, and someone is going to have to falter here. In most years, a team like FIU, Charlotte, Western, Rice, La Tech, and UTEP would all be at minimum teams most people felt like could win in March. They all are capable in theory, because they all will get to compete for a championship, even the teams that end up in the bottom four of the league.
But very few of those teams, if any, will end up being considered a true contender to actually win the whole tournament. Although the top few seeds are starting to look like they could take shape, a lot can happen if chaos ensues in the next week or two. If MTSU, FAU, UAB, and UNT all hold serve the next couple of weeks, it will pretty much be over for the rest of the league barring serious collapse. However, if, say a WKU beats an FAU, or a Charlotte beats a Middle. Or a UTEP takes down a La Tech. Or a UTSA beats UAB in a couple of weeks. If those things happen in the next week or two, things start to tighten up and get really interesting. But the margins are big enough right now that if somebody from the bottom is going to make their move, the time is now.
So as of right now, I think we have a clear four best teams at the moment. But everyone knows crazy things happen in one big leagues. Sometimes the inexplicable happens to the most surprising of victims. Buckle up, C-USA. Nobody knows what’s going to happen, but you should definitely tune in. This league is good and deep, and no one will be the stone cold favorite heading into March. Get ready for chaos.
Good analysis. Enjoyed reading it.