WKU Basketball: Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State 2
The Hilltoppers ended up blowing a 23-point lead in the second half in Las Cruces. Have they learned their lesson? Here's everything you need to know about WKU vs NMSU.
Overview
On Saturday, February 17, the New Mexico State University Aggies head to Bowling Green to face off against the Western Kentucky University Hilltoppers. New Mexico State (11-14, 5-5 CUSA) is coming off of a tough loss of 76-69 against Middle Tennessee in Murfreesboro, keeping the Aggies at fourth in Conference USA, tied with Liberty. New Mexico State got a taste of its own medicine, so to speak, when they blew a 44-27 lead with 17:23 remaining at Middle Thursday.
Western Kentucky (18-7, 7-4 CUSA) is currently on a four-game winning streak and is coming off of a big up-and-down win at home over UTEP 90-80, keeping the Hilltoppers at third in Conference USA. As of publication, ESPN’s BPI really likes WKU with an 87% chance to win.
Notable Statistics
WKU Stat Leaders
PPG: Don McHenry- 16.3 points per game
RPG: Brandon Newman- 5.9 rebounds per game
APG: Don McHenry- 2.7 assists per game
NMSU Stat Leaders
PPG: Femi Odukale- 10.9 points per game
RPG: Femi Odukale- 6.3 rebounds per game
APG: (Former Hilltopper) Jordan Rawls- 3.8 assists per game
WKU Team Stats
80.7 PPG
47% FG
34.1% 3PT
40.1 RPG
13.6 APG
7.4 SPG
14.1 TO
NMSU Team Stats
68.9 PPG
42.5% FG
32.5% 3PT
34.4 RPG
11.3 APG
6.6 SPG
12.8 TO
Keys to Victory
WKU
Here’s a real shocker for the most important point: WKU is going to have to keep their foot on the gas. As we all know, Western was up by 23 points with around 15 minutes to go in the game in Las Cruces and ended up letting the lead slip and lost the game. The Tops have gotten better with this as the conference season has progressed but could easily fall back into their old ways. They showed a good bit of it against UTEP, ranging from up ten to down a few to back up by double digits. Now that Khristian Lander is back, WKU should have zero excuses when it comes to taking care of the ball down the stretch. Although Lander is turnover prone himself, they no longer will have only one point guard to handle the ball. Surely Coach Lutz is doing everything he can to make sure that what happened in Las Cruces never happens again, but that will be step one Saturday night against New Mexico State.
Western is going to need to shut down Femi Odukale. Odukale is a 6’6” guard and is leading the Aggies in just about every category besides assists. He is an all-around type of player that loves to drive it. WKU is going to have to make sure they don’t let him get going because he could take the game over in a heartbeat. As the main producer on the team, surely keeping him at bay will yield fruit for WKU. Enoch Kalambay and Tyrone Marshall, who will most likely end up guarding Odukale, will need to come prepared to shut him down.
When these two teams played in Las Cruces, WKU led New Mexico State in almost every team stat. However, one of the stats that the Hilltoppers did not lead in was turnovers. WKU had 18 turnovers against New Mexico State the first time around. Taking care of the ball has been a big problem with the Hilltoppers throughout the conference season. It seems as if they have gotten a little better with it after their trip out West, but the Tops could easily fall back into that bad habit of spitting the ball up which is what ultimately ended up losing Western the game in Las Cruces.
WKU’s Key From the Editor: Score 80
New Mexico State has scored 80 only three times on the season. They average 68+ points per game, right? Western had the huge lead and was on pace for their normal 80+ and just absolutely went pancake flat. NMSU is actually 2-1 on the season when scoring 80, but all of them were against non-Division I opponents (W 84-49 vs. Sul Ross State, W 84-49 Southwest New Mexico, L 84-90 OT at Louisville [HA!]).
For a team that just almost can’t score 80, doesn’t it make sense to make sure the pace is nice and high and the Tops take every advantage to run and gun the entire game? Plus, we all know WKU’s magic number this year has been 80, as well. The Tops have had very few losses when they score 80 or more. Aggression is what got WKU up on NMSU, and stopping that aggression is what made NMSU comfortable enough to come back against the Tops.
New Mexico State
New Mexico State is going to have to take care of the Western guards. Don McHenry, for one, is a 6’2” guard for the Hilltoppers and has been on an absolute tear recently. McHenry has averaged 22.4 points in his last five games and had 25 against UTEP Thursday night in Bowling Green. The Aggies had his number in Las Cruces, holding Don to only one point, but McHenry is on a roll right now and New Mexico State will have to be prepared to do the same thing Saturday night that they did the first time around in Las Cruces.
Khristian Lander is another guard for the Hilltoppers that the Aggies will have to take care of. Lander is a 6’3” guard who has been out since the Hilltoppers played in Las Cruces, undergoing concussion protocol, but played his first game back Thursday night against UTEP. Although he only had 7 points against UTEP, we all know what Lander is capable of on both sides of the floor, and a guard that scores over ten points per game that can shoot the lights out from three can be deadly to a team that only scores 68 per game. In Las Cruces, Lander had a game high 19 points against the Aggies and was lighting it up all game, shooting 7-of-11 from the field and 2-5 from three. Now that he is getting back into the swing of things, you can definitely expect some big games coming out of Kristian Lander throughout the remainder of the season. The Aggies will need to come prepared to shut down both of these Hilltopper guards if they want to have their best chance of winning.
Finally, The Aggies are going to have to crash the boards. Western Kentucky is currently ranked 21st in the country at 40.1 rebounds per game. The thing about WKU is that not only do the big men rebound, but everyone rebounds. For example, Brandon Newman, a 6’5” guard, is leading the Hilltoppers at 5.9 rebounds per game. Every player for the Aggies is going to need to make sure they are finding a body and boxing out because you already know that the Tops are going to be crashing the boards heavy.
Key from the Editor: Score from Deep
In New Mexico State’s 16 games where shot 32.0% from three or less, they are 5-11. In games where they shoot better than that from deep, they are 6-3. NMSU could hang with WKU if they could make some shots. If they go 0-of-9 like they did earlier in the season, there’s no way they’re keeping pace. If they can get 5 to 10 threes to drop, that gives them a boost up and could help them win in a game in the high 60s to high 70s.
Richards’ Expectations and Predictions
When these two teams played in Las Cruces, I don’t think anyone expected it to go the way that it did. It was going how most people thought it was going to go for the first 25 minutes of the game, but I don’t think anyone expected New Mexico State to find a way to come back and win. Maybe they could make a game of it, but actually win it outright? Yeah right. That shows you what type of team that Jason Hooten has put together for his first year as the head coach of the Aggies. You know that they aren’t going to give up and if you’re going to beat them, you better play hard for a full 40 minutes. You can probably expect this game to be sort of chaotic, just like how it was in Las Cruces. Both teams are going to be playing hard on both ends of the court and it could get very intense.
I am going to predict that WKU wins by a score of 86-70. New Mexico State got the better of the Hilltoppers in Las Cruces, but honestly, I think that Western just handed them the game. I believe that Coach Lutz won’t let what happened last time happen again and he will make sure that his Hilltoppers don’t throw this one away. New Mexico State is a good team, but WKU is just on a roll right now, winning four straight. The Tops didn’t even bring their “A” game to the court Thursday and pretty well cruised to a victory against UTEP. I can’t see New Mexico State coming into Diddle and upsetting the Hilltoppers, especially considering that the Aggies are 0-11 on the road and the Hilltoppers are 11-1 at home. Do the math. It just feels like a huge mountain for the Aggies to scale.
Conclusion
With the way it went down in Las Cruces, expect literally anything to be possible. If Topper fans aren’t coming into Diddle ready to go and exact some revenge, they haven’t been paying attention this season. This was a gut punch and a gut check out west. This game was the absolute lowest point of the season without question. It will be very interesting to see how Jordan Rawls performs in his return to Diddle for the first time as a non-Hilltopper. Will he drop 20? The Tops held him scoreless in Las Cruces, but I’m sure he will be hungry for this one. This Saturday’s game is going to be senior day, so everyone will need to make sure they show up and support the WKU seniors. There are only two home games left so if you haven’t had a chance to see this Hilltopper team in person, I suggest you get tickets ASAP. You definitely won’t want to miss this one.
For anyone who is not able to make it to Diddle, the game will be on ESPN+ at 2:00 pm CT. You can also tune into @thetowelrackwku on Twitter/X for build-up, live tweets, and reactions. While you’re at it, go ahead and check out the RedOut Podcast on Twitter/X and on YouTube. As always, we are your #1 source for unfiltered and honest WKU content!