Matt's Stats: What needs to happen to make 2024 special?
FB: As we head into the new WKU Football season, what does WKU need to do statistically to win a championship?
The substance of dreams. The ultimate prize.
Everybody wants their team to get there. Plenty of programs get there, but most programs only have that magical year once in a generation or two.
Liberty just had its greatest year ever. Will it continue? Who knows? UTEP had its magical moment as a school in 1966 when its basketball team won a national championship. La Tech women’s basketball had its moment in the sun in the early days of women’s basketball.
Western Kentucky is due a moment in the sun. There was 1965-75, when just about everything went right in WKU athletics. Sweet 16s in basketball. The 2002 1-AA National Championship in football. Most recently, winning two consecutive conference championships in football was WKU’s clear winner in the past 15 years without question.
Since 2016, when Mike White, Jeff Brohm, and company won WKU’s second consecutive Conference USA title, the Tops have had pretty good seasons, quite honestly. In only one season did WKU not participate in a bowl game. In only two seasons did WKU have a losing record. Western made one conference championship appearance and fell to UTSA, in San Antonio, in 2021.
Over the last two seasons, Austin Reed and his capable companions came somewhat close, but fell short.
This season, the HIlltoppers are without Reed, who will presumably end up on a practice squad in the NFL this season. The Tops also are without Malachi Corley, a bowling ball of a receiver drafted as the highest skilled position player ever to wear the Red and White.
The Tops also lost significant defensive talent, losing a few to Baylor, along with some offensive linemen, who seem to find their ways onto Power 5 rosters after a few years on the Hill lately. Punter Tom Ellard and kickoff specialist Cory Munson and other important role players have also moved on, for various reasons.
WKU does return significant firepower from a team that was massively hampered by injury. A testament to Tyson Helton’s ability to build a roster, despite injuries at every position group last season, WKU found a way to squeak out eight wins and a come-from-behind bowl victory by the hands of the (then) third-string quarterback. Much like last season, WKU has the potential to be able to answer the bell at every position group. With Power 5 transfers and quality FCS, DII, and JUCO players with collegiate experience littering the roster, there’s no reason to think WKU can’t contend again.
That’s not to say there isn’t doubt. For example, WKU doesn’t have a receiver returning that can definitely claim an ability to accumulate more than about 600 yards in one season at the college level. Western doesn’t have a running back on the roster with 1,100 career all-purpose yards (Elijah Young 1,054) as a Topper. We could go on. Tight end. Offensive line. Quarterback feels solid, one way or another, but again, you have the third string guy who played hero in the bowl game, a new guy with an impressive resume in a new offense, and the coach’s nephew that got benched in the bowl game.
Defensively, how does WKU pressure the quarterback? JaQues “Donut” Evans and Kendrick Simpkins were the two best producers in the pash rush game and they are both gone to Baylor. WKU’s linebackers look to be solid, but linebackers do not play as big of a role in a nickel base defense.
Clearly, WKU has pieces, but I want to break it down for you. Statistically, where did WKU make its hay last year, what do they lose, and can they improve anywhere in 2024? In what areas is WKU just hoping to keep up with its pace from 2023?
2023 Team Stats
WKU clearly had a good enough scoring offense to win (T-45th), but the defense (T-90th) left something to be desired at times. An issue that often plagues air raid style offenses, WKU’s rushing offense was ranked in the triple digits in just about every category. The rushing offense picked up late in the season, as it often does under Tyson Helton. Nonetheless, barely 100 yards per game on the ground is a difficult number to overcome. The rushing defense was even worse, slotting in at 120th in yards and giving up 24 touchdowns on the ground.
Fixing the ground game, on both sides of the ball, could in and of itself lead to putting the Hilltoppers back in a title game.
WKU had little issue moving the ball through the air, amassing nearly 4,000 yards, averaging nearly 300 yards per game. Nearly doubling up opponents’ touchdowns 38-20, there’s no question WKU had the better air attack nearly every time they stepped out on the field. However, because of the dismal offense and defense on the ground, WKU’s opponents outgained them in total yards.
Tom Ellard was okay punting the ball. He wasn’t horrible, and his net punting wasn’t so bad. But at barely 40 yards per punt, there was room for improvement. Western Kentucky was solid in the penalty game. In fact, perhaps a huge hidden reason for WKU’s success was an extra 18 yards per game the Tops had on its opponents by simply avoiding penalties.
WKU was quite good on third and fourth down offensively, but defensively, they had trouble getting off of the field. WKU allowed 27 fourth down conversions, only stopping an opponent when they went for it 30 percent of the time. WKU won the turnover battle like they usually do under Tyson Helton, manufactured sacks despite a consistent pass rush from its front six or seven, and the Tops were good in the red zone on both sides of the ball. Like a team riddled with injury would need to do, the Tops maximized their opportunities and were generally much better defensively in the red zone than the entire rest of the field. One major “wow” number on this final list is the sacks given up offensively, something I think WKU will really struggle to replicate in 2024.
Places to Improve in 2024
The Ground Game
Even if WKU is “air raid” offense and a “bend but don’t break” defense, the Toppers must do a better job than near last in rushing on both sides of the ball. If opposing defenses don’t even respect your ground game and the defense can’t get off of the field because the opposing offense just has to run up the middle for a first down after three or four plays, it doesn’t matter how good you are keeping them out of the end zone. At some point, you get so beat up that your “bend but don’t break” philosophy only works if you luck into a turnover.
WKU must have good running backs, and perhaps Elijah Young and LT Sanders and others could finally provide enough punch to get the Tops in the mid-100s in yards per game. If WKU could just average another 25 yards per game, the Tops would go from triple digits to double digits. Getting to 150 yards per game would make WKU slightly above average. In an air raid style with presumably a competent quarterback in TJ Finley or Caden Veltkamp, one would think that is a formula to flirt with a 500 yard per game type of offense. If WKU can’t improve its run game, it’s hard to see WKU even getting to the CUSA championship game, let alone being a serious contender.
Defensive QB Pressure
Western Kentucky wasn’t awful at getting to the quarterback last season, but the way they had to do it was disturbing. Full credit to Defensive Coordinator Tyson Summers for finding a way, but a ridiculous 7.5 sacks and another eight QBH and four forced fumbles came from a DB in Kendrick Simpkins. Donut Evans accounted for some more chaos in only six games of extremely limited action.
With those two gone and several other quality players gone that were good rotation players, who can step it up? Someone needs to be a JaQues Evans, or several somebodies need to be like that. Someone from the front half of the defense has to get pressure so that Tyson Summers doesn’t have to employ a blitz artist to create havoc all the time and risk an unbalanced defense whenever he needs a big play.
Somehow Keep the Sacks Given up in the Teens
WKU was so exceptional not giving up sacks last season despite an offensive line that didn’t seem to be “only one sack per game” good. Don’t get me wrong: They were really good last year, and they bring some really good players back. But the reason WKU didn’t give up about 20 sacks last season was because Austin Reed is a pocket genius. He dodged so many sacks in his two years that he’s made several offensive linemen a lot of money.
Is TJ Finley a “pocket genius”? Judging by the fact that Texas State gave up 29 sacks last season, I’d say it’s difficult to argue that he elite in that area. He may be ok, but can he minimize the sack total to under 20 total for the season? 13 is such a small number for total sacks for the year. That’s giving up 1 sack per 30 or 40 passing attempts, folks. Sacks are such a crucial statistical indicator. I would be fascinating to know what percentage of drives stall when the opposing defense gets a sack. I would be willing to bet that’s a huge number. The Tops need to be incredible up front in order to repeat what Austin Reed and the O-Line did last season.
Special Teams Needs to Get Better
You want hidden yardage? How about getting two or three more yards per punt? What if WKU’s opponents average another yard or two per punt themselves? How about not being 116th in the country in punt return yardage? On the positive side, how about Cory Munson not missing a single kick out of bounds last season?
One the one hand, WKU was very pedestrian in everything but kickoff. The field goal kicking lacked greatness, although Lucas Carneiro was really, really good at first. The punting was slightly below average, although Tom Ellard’s accuracy was generally very good. Western’s punt coverage could certainly have been better, as well, giving up over seven yards per return.
WKU will have a new punter, and they will have someone new on kickoff. Western Kentucky has had some really good punters, and there have been a few years where the punter was an absolute liability. Cory Munson was an underrated weapon on kickoff the last several years, keeping opponents from doing anything, and even taking down opponents down by himself on a freakish solo tackle at their own 25 yard line. There’s also tremendous value in never handing an opponent the ball outside of their own 35 yard line all season.
Individuals That Need to Step it Up in 2024
WKU returns its top rusher in Elijah Young, who came onto the scene mainly later in the year. Davion Ervin-Poindexter was the main back for half of the season, and Markese Stepp, who got in shape later in the season, produced a lot of yards with little opportunity last season. LT Sanders was the other running back that did much of anything, but he only played in ten games last season. DEP and Stepp are gone, so it’s on Elijah Young and LT Sanders (and the other RBs) to come up with yardage. To be successful, WKU either needs a QB to produce a few hundred yards, or those two (or whoever the top two or three guys are) need to combine for at least 1,000 yards. Ideally, if one guy could flirt with 1,000 yards or more and another get 500 or more, then you’ve got a legitimate running game.
Here’s an obvious question: Can the QBs be as good as WKU’s traditionally have been since 2013? Austin Reed took a significant dip in production from his junior to senior years. We now know he was playing injured much of 2023, and also, his receivers were a complete mess all season. Nonetheless, WKU still average nearly 300 yards per game despite Reed “regressing”. Both TJ Finley and Caden Veltkamp have not averaged 300 yards per game in any of their season of experience, so if they are to produce to that standard, it has to be a new milestone for the quarterback room.
Malachi Corley is the obvious loss here, but it’s also noticeable that there was another prolific, consistent receiver that could stay healthy with Malachi. At times, it felt like he had no help. The good news is several of these guys are coming back. Dalvin Smith and Easton Messer seem to be poised to burst onto the scene. Jimmy Holiday, Craig Burt, and Blue Smith all move on from the Tops.
However, River Helms is set to be a potential all-CUSA caliber tight end, Elijah Young and LT Sanders can contribute out of the backfield, and KD Hutchinson, Moussa Barry, and some other young players that showed flashes last season could make things happen. Perhaps the missing piece that most teams will not even know how to scout will be the return of Michael Mathison, a senior receiver that was out all last season due to injury. Mathison has the most yards in a single season as a Hilltopper left on the roster and he didn’t even get to play last year.
On paper, the receiving corps has options, but someone has to take the mantle and be a 1,000+ yard producer immediately, or the Tops will struggle more than they should in a league that can score.
Leading tackler Kylan Guidry and late season bloomer Anthony Johnson, Jr. return to the Tops, and a surprisingly high amount of quality producing defensive linemen return. Here was the problem with last year’s defense, though: There was no alpha dog gobbling up nearly 100 tackles and blowing up the offense’s game plan. It was a lot of production by committee, and no one person stood out as the stud. On the one hand, that’s great because the defense was sound and everyone contributed. Anthony Johnson also just came out of seemingly nowhere late in the season to have a monster last half of the season, clearly blossoming as the best player on the defense.
WKU has some pieces, but the absolute key is for some superstars to emerge. WKU needs a couple of guys with a handful of interceptions. The Tops need a couple of defensive linemen/hybrid LBs to blow up the edge and the middle of the front of the defense. If WKU could simply pressure the quarterback without having to take huge coverage risks, it opens up the playbook and doesn’t allow opposing QBs to have time to set up camp and fire darts across the field for big plays. In all seriousness, WKU has a strong core to this defense, but they absolutely must find some alpha dogs or they will continue to be pretty average defensively.
Keeping the Main Thing the Main Thing
We can get all caught up in all kinds of details, but ultimately, what really matters for WKU to win big this season? Ultimately, I think it comes down to the trenches. Despite pretty sack numbers, WKU’s offensive line was not at all great in the run game, and the pass blocking was good but assisted by an experienced quarterback. WKU has to be able to run the ball some.
Defensively, how many teams last season gave WKU trouble because of their running game? It’s difficult to measure how many games were won and lost because of the running game, but WKU had maybe four games where they did a pretty good job against the run. For sure, USF, Troy, Jacksonville State, Liberty, New Mexico State, Sam Houston, and Old Dominion were all much different at the final margin because of the Tops’ inability to stop the run. Troy, JSU, Liberty, and NMSU were all losses in which the Tops got dominated on the ground. That can’t happen like that this season, or the Tops will yield the same frustrating crop of disappointment at year’s end.
Hopefully, WKU learns from last year, develops some beasts all over the field, and Western Kentucky hosts and wins the Conference USA Championship game and represents the Group of Five in the College Football Playoff. That would be magnificent, but the pieces have to fall in place statistically for WKU to have a chance.
It all starts one week from Saturday against the new-look Alabama Crimson Tide. Get ready, Topper fans.
Great analysis!!! I would argue the great basketball years were seasons 1959-1971 with six NCAA bids, four SWEET 16s, a FINAL 4 plus an NIT ELITE 8. The ‘68 team with future pro players may have been the best WKU ever to not make postseason.