WKU Football: Analyzing WKU’s Potential Bowl Scenario’s
After Saturday’s dreadful performance against FIU, WKU football goes from controlling its own bowl destiny to now sweating out just being…
After Saturday’s dreadful performance against FIU, WKU football goes from controlling its own bowl destiny to now sweating out just being picked for a bowl game. Sitting at 6–6, they won’t be picked for one of Conference USA’s six bowl primary tie-ins.
With that being said, what are the Tops’ potential destinations, and who are they fighting for those spots?
After this past weekend’s game there are now 79 bowl eligible teams for 78 spots. There are three 5–6 teams that will potentially join WKU among the bowl eligible: Florida State hosts Louisiana Monroe (4–7), Louisiana Lafayette travels to Appalachian State (7–4) and New Mexico State hosts South Alabama (4–7) on Saturday. With 80–82 total teams that could be eligible, WKU will be one of seven to nine Group of 5 teams looking to jockey for five at-large spots.
When it’s all said and done, two to four teams will be left home for bowl season. All P5 bowl eligible teams will get spots (except Ole Miss who is serving a bowl ban) and all 7–5 G5 teams will have priority over 6–6 squads.
The following conferences will not have enough teams to fill their bowl tie-ins:
ACC (10 eligible teams* for 11 tie-ins)
*counting Florida State beating ULM
Big Ten (8 eligible teams for 8 tie-ins)
SEC (9 eligible teams for 10 tie-ins)
Sun Belt (4 eligible teams* for 5 tie-ins)
*could go up this weekend
If a conference has a team qualify for the College Football playoff, then it takes away a traditional bowl tie-in that must be filled by an at-large team. With that in mind the following bowls will probably have at least one at-large team chosen: Cure Bowl, Birmingham Bowl, Heart of Dallas Bowl, Hawaii Bowl, Quick Lane Bowl, Independence Bowl, Frisco Bowl and potentially Foster Farms Bowl.
The bowls use a combination of program prestige, potential fan attendance, previous bowl attendance, proximity, TV viewership draw and match-ups to select the best team among the at-large squads. With that in mind, we’ll review each 6–6 G5 team that WKU will compete with for one of those coveted spots.
UTSA 6–5 (3–5), Conference USA
2017 attendance average: 22,821
At large bowls that are close: Heart of Dallas Bowl, Frisco Bowl, Independence Bowl
Other factors: UTSA is located in a top 25 metro area and could draw more TV eyeballs than other teams. They averaged more fans per game than any bubble team on this list. Frank Wilson is seen as an up-and-coming coach in the G5 and a bowl could be showcase for his program. UTSA did, however, post a losing record in C-USA.
Louisiana Tech 6–6 (4–4), Conference USA
2017 attendance average: 20,375
At large bowls that are close: Independence Bowl, Frisco Bowl, Heart of Dallas Bowl
Other factors: Loyal fan following, proximity to Texas/Louisiana Bowl games, consistent travel to bowl games in past. They are a low scoring team, but have a head to head victory agaisnt WKU.
Middle Tennessee 6–6 (4–4), Conference USA
2017 attendance average: 15,619
At large bowls that are close: Birmingham Bowl
Other factors: Beat Syracuse back in September, Brent Stockstill/Richie James are very entertaining offensively, poor fan following, lost to WKU.
Western Michigan 6–6 (4–4), MAC
2017 attendance average: 15,885
At large bowls that are close: Quick Lane Bowl
Other factors: Close to Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit, solid local fan support and has semi-recognizable name after New Year’s Six bowl appearance last season
Buffalo 6–6 (4–4), MAC
2017 attendance average: 13,350
At large bowls that are close: Quick Lane Bowl
Other factors: Would be first bowl appearance since 2013, also close to Detroit
Utah State 6–6 (4–4), Mountain West
2017 attendance average: 20,108
At large bowls that are close: Foster Farms, Hawaii (relatively)
Other factors: Can fill west coast bowl slot, solid attendance, would be first bowl since 2015.
Louisiana Lafayette 5–6 (4–3), Sun Belt
2017 attendance average: 15,750
At large bowls that are close: Independence, Frisco, Heart of Dallas
Other factors: Still have to beat Appalachian State (7–4), traveled well to New Orleans bowl in past, decent proximity to Texas/Louisiana Bowls
New Mexico State 5–6 (3–4), Sun Belt
2017 attendance average: 16,231
At large bowls that are close: New Mexico Bowl (if shuffled around)
Other factors: Still have to beat South Alabama (4–7), haven’t been to bowl since 1960, financial troubles with school could prevent them from going to certain destinations, getting kicked out of Sun Belt after season.
I think that UTSA and Louisiana Tech both will probably get in due to strong attendance and proximity to several bowls that need at large teams. That leaves WKU fighting for three remaining spots with MTSU, Utah State, Western Michigan, Buffalo and potentially New Mexico State and UL-Lafayette.
Todd Stewart will have to work his magic this week. WKU averaged just 15,705 fans this season after the backslide from 11 wins. They have traveled well to their three bowl games in the U.S., drawing between 3,000–5,000 fans on their trips to Detroit (2012), Miami (2015) and Boca Raton (2016). They do have somewhat of a reputation of consistently fun football teams and have a senior quarterback in Mike White to advertise. If we’re being objective, they have comparable — if not better — factors that MTSU, Buffalo, New Mexico State and Louisiana-Lafayette and are about even with Western Michigan.
I see them realistically competing for the following bowls
Cure Bowl, Orlando — Saturday, December 16
The AAC will not fill this bowl because of UCF or Memphis getting the G5’s New Year’s Six spot. WKU has traveled well to Florida over the past two years and might be able to leverage C-USA’s relationship with CBS Sports Network to get into the game.
Birmingham Bowl — Saturday, December 23
The SEC will not fill this bowl slot. Birmingham is just 3 hours and 50 minutes from Bowling Green, making this game a very easy destination for fans to travel to and that might make WKU attractable.
Hawaii Bowl — Sunday, December 24
WKU would only be attractable as a offensive commodity. There will be close to zero fans in the traveling party, but WKU could agree to pay for the high expense of traveling to the remote islands that other schools might balk at.
Independence Bowl — Wednesday, December 27
C-USA secondary bowl tie-in. I doubt WKU would go, there but it’s possible depending on shuffling of other teams.
I don’t see WKU going to any of the Texas Bowl games due to location and dates (right around Christmas) or the Quick Lane Bowl due to the proximity of Western Michigan/Buffalo. I honestly think its Cure Bowl or bust for WKU.
We’ll know on Sunday whether or not they’ll be bowling for the fourth straight season. Over the next couple of days, I’ll recap the projections across the internet and will also give you a quick rooting guide for Saturday’s action based on what helps WKU improve their bowl chances.
Do you think WKU ends up in a bowl game? Where would you prefer them to go? Are you thinking about traveling if they make it? Let us know in a comment below, via Twitter at @TheTowelRackWKU or on our Facebook page.