WKU Football: Evaluating the Tops’ Schedule Based on ESPN’s FPI

If you were to click on a matchup preview page on ESPN’s website during a game week, you’ll see something like this.

If you were to click on a matchup preview page on ESPN’s website during a game week, you’ll see something like this.

That is ESPN’s Football Power Index, or FPI if you prefer. It’s basically their shorthand way of predicting the results of a matchup based on a host of factors, that you can read by clicking here.

Even though we’re still just over a month away from the football season kicking off, ESPN has a full FPI prediction for each of the Toppers 2018 games.

Behold.

By this measure, ESPN says the Tops will repeat with a 6–6 regular season, good enough to have them eligible to go bowling.

There are some obvious predictions by the FPI; heavy underdogs to Wisconsin, Louisville and FAU, while also being heavy favorites against Maine and UTEP.

Aside from that, there are some curious things here;

• The FPI, as it stands at the writing of this article, predicts a higher win probability for WKU over UTEP (83.3%) than Maine (81%). That’s…not great for the Miners.

• A couple of matchups have the Tops as far bigger underdogs than I’d have put them; specifically, I’m referring to the MTSU and La Tech contests. At worst, I’d give the Tops 30% against MT, and that’s the absolute worst. I’d probably say something similar for the game against the Bulldogs, as well. I’ve been saying for months that I don’t see how those two teams are that much better than the Tops. Maybe my glasses are too Big Red tinted.

• The most striking thing to me: While WKU is favored against Ball State, Charlotte, ODU and FIU, all of those games give no more than a near-59% advantage to the Tops. These are essentially toss-up games, and as the conversation has gone on Twitter over the last couple of months, these are the games that’ll determine WKU’s season.