WKU Football: Every Expectation to Have For the 2019 Season — A Full Diagnosis
After a disappointing 3–9 season in 2018, WKU Athletic Director Todd Stewart made the tough decision to relieve head coach Mike Sanford of…
After a disappointing 3–9 season in 2018, WKU Athletic Director Todd Stewart made the tough decision to relieve head coach Mike Sanford of his coaching duties. Shortly after, former USC and Tennessee offensive coordinator Tyson Helton was hired as WKU’s next head football coach.
Since then, we’ve all started to speculate and fantasize how the 2019 season may go. Especially since we’ve gotten to see the 2019 recruiting class that has been put together. Things will only get better, right?
Football season will be here before we know it and whether or not you’ve thought about how this team may do, we got you covered.
If you already have an expectation in mind for Helton’s first year at the helm of the Tops, hopefully this article will justify why you feel that way. If you don’t have one in mind, feel free to choose any of the records below you agree with the most and run with it (one of the records below will be right so may the odds be ever in your favor).
So strap in and let’s dive deep into the world of sports speculation.
0–12
This would be an absolute disaster and tie the 2009 WKU team as the worst finish in program history. In order for this to actually happen, I believe the team would have to be hindered with several injuries to key players and positions. None of us want that to happen, obviously, but it’s still technically possible.
The Tops do have a gauntlet of a schedule with several tough road games including one at an SEC school and the Tops drew some of the harder teams in the West of the C-USA to play like Southern Miss and UAB but even still, they would have several home games against some quality teams and surely they’d win at least one of those.
From a coaching standpoint, Helton would have to have one of the worst offenses (and/or defenses) in the FBS and make some terrible coaching decisions all around. Thankfully he’s a good offensive mind so let’s hope he doesn’t do anything so risky or drastic that the Tops lose every game.
We did start to see some improvements from last year’s team at the end of the season with a rout of UTEP and a big win at Louisiana Tech so that team at least finished well despite performing poorly in the middle of the year and I’d look for that trend to continue into next year.
Possibility of this record occurring: Extremely Low
1–11
This is better than losing out an entire season but is just as bad and unacceptable.
If WKU were to only win one game, I’d assume it would be at home against Central Arkansas to start the year but WKU usually does some crazy stuff so it could be against the Arkansas because screw your logic. The last thing Helton needs to do is lose to an FCS school so I’d like to believe this team will be ready to play one, especially after losing to Maine last season.
Basically all of the aforementioned things for going 0–12 still apply to going 1–11 as far as I’m concerned. Would have to be a team that’s completely uninspired or too injured to play.
Possibility of this record occurring: Very Low
2–10
I know some of you would be lying if you thought last year’s team wasn’t going to finish with this record at one point. I know I certainly did. But to say that this record would be impossible in 2019 would still be lying.
I’d like to think that coach Helton will fix most of the offensive problems WKU had last year but depending on several factors like how fast his team learns his offense, how the starting QB does, etc. could all play factors on how they will do.
Thankfully some of their hardest games are at home. Louisville should’ve been a win last year but with a new coach, they might have a better showing, considering it’s at Nissan Stadium. Army was ranked as high as #19 last season, UAB should’ve been ranked but did receive votes and MTSU was in the conference championship for the east (but they lose their quarterback).
The schedule won’t be easy but it gives WKU a better chance of beating some good teams. In order to only win two games, I believe it would be because of some of the same issues last year, specifically at the quarterback position. If there’s still no consistency at QB along with not having at least a decent running game, those could be reasons the Tops would only win two games.
Let’s hope coach Helton gets one guy at QB to be his guy all year long.
Possibility of this record occurring: Low
3–9
This would be the same record they finished with last year. No improvement but also no more losses than 2018. I don’t believe WKU will do this bad again but it still isn’t out of the equation.
Helton will be a first year head coach so his expectations are slightly different than Sanford in his second year but to go 3–9 again would be disheartening but at least we would still have the hope of must-need improvements in 2020.
Only having three wins looks bad on paper but since last year, it’s easy to understand how it can happen. WKU lost four games by three points or less last year. If they won all of those close games, they would’ve gone 7–5 and all of us would be saying how we’re gonna be great this year.
To me, the biggest factor that will determine WKU’s record in 2019 will be how Helton and his team does in those close 50/50 toss up games. If he’s able to win just a few of them, it could make a world of difference as to how this team will finish the year and if they have a winning or losing record.
Possibility of this record occurring: Mostly Low
4–8
This would be my realistic basement for this year’s team. It would be a one game improvement from last year and with the schedule WKU will have, it’s possible if the teams that had winning seasons last season continue their winning and the big conference teams like Louisville and Arkansas getting better.
4–8 would be my worst case scenario record for WKU to actually finish with. It would mean that the C-USA continues to get better as a whole while Helton loses almost all of the 50/50 toss up games like I’ve mentioned. The four wins would likely be Central Arkansas, Charlotte, at Old Dominion, and MTSU.
Most of those games would be at home so realistically, this should be the worst record the Tops could get.
Possibility of this record occurring: Very Possible But Not Likely
5–7
We’re now starting to get into the “habitable zone” of records WKU will probably finish with. 5–7 is a likely possibility and would be a two game improvement as Helton continues to rebuild this program.
As much as I’d like this team to get over .500, I would honestly be okay with 5–7 if it were to actually happen. Sure it’s not a winning record but at least there are signs of this team getting better.
I could realistically see WKU going 1–3 in non-conference and 4–4 in conference play, especially if this team is still slow to hit its stride and gel as a cohesive unit as the year progresses.
Possibility of this record occurring: Highly Likely
6–6
Getting six wins and being bowl eligible is a realistic expectation every WKU team should have in my opinion. WKU had been bowl eligible for seven straight seasons before last season so getting back to that standard is important not only to the fans but the athletic department as well.
I believe it’s very possible WKU can turn things around and get bowl eligible this season. If the Tops get consistent play from the quarterback spot as the offense quickly picks up Helton’s system along with the defense improving, 6–6 is most certainly within the realm of possibility.
If WKU can win against either Louisville or Army at home as well as win four conference games, that would be big. Even if they went 1–3 in non-conference but 5–3 in conference, having that winning record in the C-USA would give us hope of this team turning the corner in 2020. A bowl win would be icing on the cake as well.
Possibility of this record occurring: Extremely Likely
7–5
This would be my ceiling for this team. Having a winning record after going 3–9 would be an amazing improvement for this team and for coach Helton and his staff in his first year.
Getting wins against Central Arkansas and Louisville and going 5–3 in the C-USA isn’t impossible by any means. With C-USA wins against Charlotte, Old Dominion, MTSU, and maybe some big wins against FAU and either Marshall or USM would help WKU be one of the best teams in the East after finishing last in the East last season.
Going 1–3 in non-conference play and going 6–2 in the C-USA would be more challenging in my opinion but depending on how well the conference will be next year that could determine if that’s feasible for WKU or not.
Getting a bowl win would be huge as well but not necessary to have a successful winning season and a big turnaround to give fans hope of competing for a conference title in 2020.
Possibility of this record occurring: Highly Likely
8–4
This is when I start to get my head out of the clouds but still try to logically think about how this could happen in real life.
Say WKU wins against Central Arkansas and Louisville but either makes an impressive home-stand against Army or gets an upset win at Arkansas: that’s 3–1 going into conference play.
By getting big wins that early that could propel the team to make a solid run in the C-USA and finish 5–3 in conference. That’s not too far fetched, folks.
The more likely scenario would be that WKU goes 2–2 in non-conference and pulls in a 6–2 conference record. If the conference is down as a whole and the Tops win all of the close 50/50 toss up games, that would be huge and would make this possible.
If their only conference losses were something like UAB or USM (maybe even throw FIU or Marshall in the mix as one of those teams) that could potentially help them land a spot in the C-USA title game.
Unless this team makes huge strides in the offseason and whoever becomes the starting quarterback stays healthy and plays at a Brandon Doughty or Mike White level, I think 8–4 is just slightly out of reach for next year. One can only dream.
Possibility of this record occurring: Very Possible But Not Likely
9–3
I would be amazed if the Tops flipped their record from 3–9 to 9–3. Obviously I’d love it but I don’t see it happening, sadly.
In order for this to happen, this team would have to pull some major upsets and play strong from the beginning of the year all the way till the end.
While this year’s team isn’t going to be as young as last year’s team, it would be unrealistic to think that they could turn things around this quickly. I expect Helton to succeed at WKU but I don’t think he’s a miracle man.
Time will only tell if he is or not but to think a first year head coach could take a team that went from 3–9 to 9–3 in one season and have them compete for a conference title might be a little too good to be true. If I’m wrong, feel free to @ me.
Possibility of this record occurring: Not Likely
10–2
If you believe WKU will finish 10–2 or better this year, you have levels of optimism that I’m physically incapable of possessing for anything, especially WKU Sports.
Even if the wins are by a close margin of victory (say a touchdown or less), for WKU to get ten wins next season would be insane. There’s definitely a lot of talent on this team. They’re young, but they’re talented.
This team would have to play either perfect or almost perfect every night for a whole season which is too much to ask of this young team. Let’s slow our roll a little bit.
Possibility of this record occurring: Very Low
11–1
You would have to be on illicit drugs or so optimistic that it’s almost unhealthy to believe WKU is capable of winning eleven in the regular season. Helton would surpass Brohm for the best regular season record in WKU’s young FBS history if this happened.
The sole loss would probably be at Arkansas or maybe USM if this actually happened but to think that WKU is capable of this record next year or maybe even any year in the next three seasons is far fetched.
Even if this happened, I’m sure the CFP committee would find a reason to not put WKU in their top 25 at the end of the year, C-USA champions or not. Tops would still get a great bowl game regardless.
Possibility of this record occurring: Extremely Low
12–0
Ahh, yes: the perfect season. Something that has never happened in WKU’s FBS history. Brohm got 12 wins in his best year at WKU which included a C-USA title and a solid bowl win against USF helping WKU finish #24 in the country for the first time in program history.
If Helton goes undefeated his first year, all of us better start donating to the HAF and the athletic department immediately to try to muster up enough money to make Helton at least think about staying another year at WKU.
Obviously, the chances of WKU going undefeated next year are little to none but it has to be included because it’s still technically possible. It would be a dream come true for all of us but I don’t see it happening in the foreseeable future. WKU would need to have Heisman level quarterback play all year and a defense that was as good as Clemson’s on their 15–0 team that just clobbered Alabama for the national title.
If the Tops ran the table, they still wouldn’t get in the Playoff unless Arkansas won out and won the SEC and Louisville won out and won the ACC. The Tops would definitely get a nice New Year bowl game but I don’t see the CFP committee ever putting WKU in, at least with this year’s schedule.
The only way WKU would ever make the CFP is if they played and defeated the top 4 ranked teams in the country in their non-conference and the C-USA would have to have more than one nationally ranked team to beat as well. Even then, I still don’t see it happening. Guess we’ll have to wait a bit for our guys to bring home a Natty.
Possibility of this record occurring: Basically Impossible
So there you have it, folks. One of the above records will be right. Hopefully one with a winning record.
Either way, the best thing to do is to have high hopes and support this team as they try to get back to the standard that we all expect WKU football to have. Here’s to a successful season in 2019!