WKU Football: Every Expectation to Have For the 2021 Season — A Full Diagnosis

We’re already halfway through July (somehow) and football season is getting closer and closer. That means it’s time for me to deep dive and…

We’re already halfway through July (somehow) and football season is getting closer and closer. That means it’s time for me to deep dive and look at every possible record the Tops could get this upcoming season and see how likely it is.

2020 was a wild ride and the Tops’ season was no exception. Last year, I predicted the Tops going 9–3 and that was obviously off as they finished with a 5–7 total record including a bowl loss to Georgia State. Sadly the offense never clicked under their run-first quarterback in Tyrrell Pigrome and the defense struggled more than we thought they would (mostly because they couldn’t stay off the field).

But the past is the past. The Tops have a ton of new weapons and personnel including an offensive coordinator and several players from the air attack offense of Houston Baptist, DeAngelo Malone is back, and a ton of Power Five transfers just to name a few.

So let’s see how the Tops could end up. If you need a refresher on the Tops’ 2021 schedule it can be found here.

0–12

This would be bad. Really bad. Helton would for sure be fired along with the rest of his staff, more than likely. While this team has been snake-bit by FCS opponents the past few years, surely they can beat UT-Martin at the least.

We all lived through 0–12 once and it’s something I hope we never experience again in my lifetime (or anyone’s lifetime, honestly). Thankfully I see this team doing far better than this.

Likelihood Of This Record Occurring: Essentially Impossible (1%)

1–11

Not any better to be honest. Assume the one win would be against UT-Martin (or maybe Michigan State because logic doesn’t apply to sports sometimes) but this would be really bad. Same consequences as stated above in the previous record for the coaching staff.

All of us would be disappointed after all the hype and to fall off that bad after last season would be an absolute disaster. Thankfully I see the Tops winning more than one game and you should as well.

Likelihood Of This Record Occurring: Almost Impossible (2%)

2–10

Still inexcusable. This team has too many new players in core positions with most of them being on offense. If new OC Zach Kittley and his star pupils Bailey Zappe and the Stern brothers can’t light up the scoreboard, the disappointment in The Houch could reach a new high.

Even after a disappointing season last year when the team felt like they were never gonna get another win, they still ended up becoming bowl eligible so I still have higher expectations than this record.

Likelihood Of This Record Occurring: Extremely Unlikely (5%)

3–9

This would be absolutely crushing. The Tops would for sure be one of the worst teams in C-USA. I feel like the three wins could be UT-Martin, MTSU, and maybe ODU or FIU.

I’ve seen several predictions already putting the Tops to finish around 2nd or 3rd place in the East division so I’m hoping that holds true.

Likelihood Of This Record Occurring: Very Unlikely (10%)

4–8

This would still be lower than my basement for this year’s team. Four wins is more than a realistic goal to set for this team. In order to only get four wins they’d have to lose every 50–50 game they have as well as a few they shouldn’t lose at all.

Thinking of the Chattanooga game last season still causes me physical pain and we all know that WKU shouldn’t have won that absolute slopfest of a game that slightly resembled what we know as football. This year’s team should handle UT-Martin as well as some of the other cellar dwellers of the conference.

Likelihood Of This Record Occurring: Unlikely (20%)

5–7

This would be my basement for this year’s team. Same record as last season. Obviously I wouldn’t be happy with it at all but after last season I don’t want to keep my head in the clouds too much.

One of the things that this year’s team already has over last season’s is that they were able to have spring practices. With COVID, there were no spring practices last year but now that things have gotten much better on that front, this year’s team has already had spring practices and are gearing up for the season with more reps and in-person involvement than last season had.

I didn’t get to attend the red vs. white game this year but I heard that Zappe looked decent. Not too good or bad. But I’d definitely rather him look lackluster in April than September because that’s to be expected. Obviously all these new pieces won’t immediately fit but with these extra practices it definitely makes me feel a little better moving into September than I did last year.

As far as the wins this team would get at 5–7 I would predict UT-Martin, ODU, MTSU, FIU, and Charlotte. ODU has fallen off a bit and MTSU lost their star QB Asher O’Hara (who was quite literally their entire offense) to transfer so they likely won’t be as strong. FIU didn’t win a single game last season and Charlotte could be hit or miss after only playing in six games and winning two of them last season.

I definitely want to believe this year’s team is better than 5–7 but I have to leave room for the possibility of it happening.

Likelihood Of This Record Occurring: Not Likely (33%)

6–6

Bowl eligible with an even .500 record wouldn’t be the end of the world by any means. Would be a one win improvement from last season and I’d love to see them win their bowl game. But this 6–6 record hinges completely on the toss-up games.

Conference USA is going to look interesting this year, especially in the West. UTSA had a conference high 15 players named to the preseason All-Conference team and Rice showed against Marshall last season that they weren’t a walk in the park either. Thankfully WKU will be able to avoid UAB and Louisiana Tech this year but both of the games they have against Western opponents could honestly go either way.

Another factor is the non-conference as well. The Tops will play two Big 10 opponents with Indiana (at home) and Michigan State (in Lansing). WKU still haven’t gotten that elusive win against a Big 10 opponent and I’d love to see that drought end this year. I’d like to say that it would come against IU because the Tops would be at home but the Hoosiers went 6–2 and finished #12 in the final AP top 25 poll last season so they will be a tough out. Michigan State on the other hand went 2–5 last season so realistically I feel like WKU would have a better chance against the Spartans than the Hoosiers, even with it being in Lansing.

And lastly, the Tops play Army at Army on the 20th anniversary of the September 11th terrorist attacks. That is going to be a must-watch game and if you can, must-attend. The Black Knights went 9–3 last season and are a much stronger team than the one the Tops beat in 2019. This will be an emotional and likely very memorable game but I’m not sure how well it would bode in the Tops favor of winning.

So with all these things considered, I would say that 6–6 is a very realistic record the Tops could end up with.

Likelihood Of This Record Occurring: Likely (50%)

7–5

This is the record I predict the Tops finishing with this year. I’d love for it to be a win or two more but I feel like this is realistically the most obtainable record for this team to get. They would flip their record from 5–7 to 7–5 and still go bowling (hopefully with a win).

There are a ton of new players on both sides of the ball so I don’t expect things to click at all times, especially early on, so I’m leaving room for things to take some time to gel.

I predict the wins would be against UT-Martin, ODU, FIU, Charlotte, MTSU, Rice, and FAU. I feel very confident about the first five of them but Rice and FAU are definitely toss-ups. With both of those games being later in the season I feel like the Tops would be more confident in their own style of play and in mid-season form.

As much as I’d love to see WKU win the Moonshine Throwdown against Marshall last game of the regular season, I don’t see it happening this year. The Herd are preseason favorites in C-USA and have a very strong roster and a new coach. Plus it being in Huntington doesn’t help any. Although the first time WKU ever played them in C-USA with that magical 67–66 win in 2014 still happened with a team better than the one they’re playing so when it comes time, I definitely wouldn’t count the Tops out completely. Rivalries are always a toss-up.

Seeing the Tops flip their record from 5–7 to 7–5 would get things going in the right direction and would put things back on a positive course for coach Helton and his program, especially after last year. If I somehow end up right in my predictions for once I can definitely live with this record happening.

Likelihood Of This Record Occurring: Most Likely (75%)

8–4

This would be great! Getting an extra win against Army, or maybe upset Indiana at home for a huge non-conference win, or beating a still not-up-to-par Michigan State team would be a huge confidence boost and would be a memorable win.

As far as C-USA goes, UTSA is still a winnable matchup and by the end of the season Marshall could be too depending on how first year head coach Charles Huff does. Obviously you can never rule out injuries either so whoever stays the healthiest the longest could have the upper hand in these games.

Going 8–4 after last season would be fantastic and I definitely think it’s obtainable. If the Tops come out stronger than I’m thinking they will then it’s definitely possible.

Likelihood Of This Record Occurring: Very Likely (70%)

9–3

This is still very possible as far as I’m concerned. I’d say the two extra wins would be Michigan State and UTSA.

Depending on how the rest of the East ends up this could put WKU in good position to compete for a conference title. Marshall and FAU are going to be the Tops’ biggest threats so if they’re able to beat the teams they need to as well as beat both of them that would definitely give them the edge to take the East.

If things go really well on both sides of the ball for the Tops and they win the majority of the toss-up games they have this is definitely within the realm of possibility.

Likelihood Of This Record Occurring: Somewhat Likely (60%)

10–2

This would be the ceiling for this year’s team for me. If they sweep Conference USA and beat everyone but Indiana and Army that would be huge and would double their wins from last season.

I think it’s possible they could beat Michigan State, UTSA, and Marshall but it would require some huge performances from Bailey Zappe (probably multiple 400+ yards and 5 touchdowns) and a defense that is stronger than we’ve had the past few seasons with a veteran Malone and the new Power Five transfers making an immediate and instant impact on the field. Every core player would have to stay healthy for the majority or entirety of the season as well for this to happen.

I wish I could say I see this record happening but I’m not setting myself up for more unneeded disappointment. If they go 10–2 I definitely won’t complain but I don’t see them getting that many of their 50–50 wins.

Likelihood Of This Record Occurring: Not Likely (45%)

11–1

Only having one loss on the season is a little too high of an expectation to have for a team with so many new pieces fitting into the roster.

If this were to happen, I’d still say the one loss would be Indiana. I’d love to see the Tops get that big home win against a Big 10 opponent but the Hoosiers will be a very tough P5 opponent to have at home. Even the 2016 team that won a C-USA title still couldn’t beat Vanderbilt at home in double overtime and Indiana is much better of a football program than Vanderbilt is so I’m just being realistic here.

Going 11–1 is definitely too far high of a goal to set for this team and if they were to somehow pull this record off I would be amazed. I just don’t see this happening this year.

Likelihood Of This Record Occurring: Almost Impossible (10%)

12–0

A clean sweep. Perfect season. Not a single loss or blemish to be found with this team.

Everyone would have to play at their absolute best all season and would have to take down an FCS school, Army on 9/11, two Big 10 opponents, and every C-USA school on their schedule to do this. This team would definitely be ranked but still wouldn’t be anywhere close to making a discussion of making the College Football Playoff sadly just because of their strength of schedule plus the fact that they’re C-USA.

If WKU go 12–0 they would likely get a New Year’s Six bowl game (and that’s if they’re lucky and some AAC or other good G5 program doesn’t run the table either) against a solid opponent but that’s about as good as it would get.

Sadly, I don’t see this happening unless it’s on NCAA Football 2014 on dynasty mode or something. The program has a long way to go to make this record a realistic goal but it technically has to be included because technically it’s possible.

Likelihood Of This Record Occurring: Impossible (1%)

Well there you have it, folks. I promise you one of these records will be right (given that they don’t have to cancel a game for something) but as far as which one will be correct, we’ll have to wait and see. I’m definitely expecting bowl eligibility even with these new pieces on both sides of the ball.

Do you agree with a certain record? Which record do you see the Tops getting? Be sure to let us know on Facebook as well as on Twitter! Be sure to follow us and stay up to date with all the latest news and analysis.