WKU Football: Five Important Things Ahead of Ball State
That Louisville game had me pacing. It was so exciting to have a lead against a Power 5 opponent, especially Louisville, who has been too…
That Louisville game had me pacing. It was so exciting to have a lead against a Power 5 opponent, especially Louisville, who has been too afraid to play WKU for 20 years. The drama was incredible. However, ultimately, this was just another close loss for Mike Sanford. We could say this result really was a neutral result for him overall. However, if this was the turning point for the Tops, the Louisville game could end up being a positive for him later.
So we move along to Ball State. Yes, Sanford gained a few brownie points for competing with Louisville, but ultimately, it’s time for the Tops to win some ball games. Personally, I believe if WKU plays exactly like it did against Louisville, they win 7 or 8 games. Will they? I have no idea. Pure conjecture.
I will be watching five key areas in this match-up with Ball State.
Special Teams
It was a key last week, and it certainly is this week. Unlike last week, Ball State’s special teams unit is suspect. Louisville’s was incredible. Western Kentucky’s has so far struggled. So between WKU and Ball State, whose unit finds a way to be good, or more likely, makes the least amount of mistakes?
WKU has given up two field goal blocks, one of which cost them over 50 yards on a flukeish recovery. Punting is a liability. Nothing in this area has seemed exceptional. Ball State is very similar. Average field goal kicking, below average punting, and nothing else seeming spectacular for the Cardinals, as well. They even have had a field goal blocked.
Believe it or not, WKU looks like it should have the overall advantage here. Ball State’s kickoffs average landing at the eight yard line; WKU’s go an extra five yards. Ball State averages 15 yards per kick return; WKU averages 23. Ball State has already surrendered a touchdown on a punt return. Everything else seems even. Whichever team screws up the least gains a huge advantage in this game.
Time of Possession
Both teams have been wildly inconsistent in terms of controlling the clock. WKU seemed to be struggling mightily to keep the football in its two early games, and then possessed the ball over 35 minutes against Louisville. Ball State controlled possession against Notre Dame, really giving themselves a chance at a huge upset. Against Indiana, however, the Cardinals hardly saw the ball.
Both of these teams average time of possession right around 30 minutes. Time of Possession could be a huge indication of success, especially if WKU can run the football. WKU winning Time of Possession would be massive for the Toppers.
Red Zone
We wouldn’t be covering this subject right if we didn’t mention red zone as a key for the Tops. WKU’s defense has surrendered a score each time it has allowed its opponent into the red zone. WKU’s offense stalls half of the time when it reaches its opponent’s 20 yard line. Ball State has scored on 80% (8-for-10) drives inside the red zone. The Cardinal defense has stopped its opponents from scoring on five of 13 possessions.
Clearly, Ball State should have the advantage here. Anything to the contrary is a huge bonus for WKU.
WKU Running Game vs. Ball State Passing Game
These are the clear offensive weaknesses for these two teams. Ball State moves the ball for 450 yards, but only passes for 219 yards per game. Throwing out a massive blowout against Central Connecticut, the numbers would be even more pedestrian in the passing game.
Without a Sanford era high rushing the football against Louisville last week (168 yards), WKU would be averaging less than 100 yards per game on the ground. With Marquez Trigg suddenly leaving the program this week, will the Tops be better or worse on the ground? Ball State does not have a receiver averaging 40 yards per game or more. Wow.
Defensive Discipline in Coverage
WKU has to deal with a Ball State spread offense. Not a typical spread, Ball State’s clear strength is its running game. The defensive line will probably not be the difference in the game. Linebackers and safeties will have to make plays on the edge. Ball State is averaging 450 yards per game. That’s nothing to sneeze at. WKU better be ready, or Ball State could run all over the Tops.
Ball State was not supposed to have a good defense this year, but after three games, here they are stopping 67% of third downs and giving up only 23 points per game. It remains to be seen whether they are legit, but this defense seems to bend but not break. With WKU’s gifted receiving corps and emerging running game, can Ball State be disciplined against an unpredictable offense?
In my opinion, this seems to be a good match-up for WKU in this area. WKU’s strength is its back end of its defense. WKU’s front four is much improved, but is still the weakest link of the defense. With a team spreading it out and making quick decisions, the line may just not be as influential in the outcome.
Who Wins and Why?
This is a must win for both programs if they want to become bowl eligible at the end of the year. With a win, Ball State goes to 2–2 heading into conference play with extreme confidence. Mike Sanford may be fighting for his job if he loses another game he should ultimately win. A win for the Tops puts them basically back on schedule with preseason expectations.
This is an interesting match-up. I believe this could be a good setup for WKU. Ball State runs a good run spread offense, but WKU has a ton of speed in its secondary and on the second layer with Holt, Whyte, and Brown. The Toppers seem to have several key advantages and probably have the most potential for a good performance.
This game has two unpredictable teams, but I believe this is going to be a slugfest. This could be a lot of possession football, with each team holding its own in the red zone and forcing the other to earn it. Given the fact both offenses only score a combined 38 points per game yet still gain some yards, these two teams find ways not to score points. WKU wins in a weird one, 19–16.