WKU Football: Five Important Things Ahead of FIU

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Clearly, Western Kentucky football (1–6, 0–3 C-USA) is playing on a tilted field of late. Everything seems to go wrong for them. Who can blame a field goal return going out of bounds with a face mask on anyone but Lady Luck?

How horrifying. The already bizarre circumstances have doubled down, and WKU found itself on SportsCenter for all the wrong reasons.

WKU battles first placed Florida International (5–2, 3–0 C-USA) Saturday night and WKU, the cellar dweller, is looking to find its first conference win.

FIU is good in all phases. Where can WKU poke holes in the armor enough to pull off an upset? It’s an uphill battle, but as has been repeated throughout the season, WKU is clearly talented enough to win every game on its remaining schedule.

Five Things

Take Care of the Football

FIU forces nearly two turnovers per game, most of which come in the air. If WKU wants any chance to beat a better team, they need to win the turnover battle.

If WKU fails in this area, they might as well pack up and leave at halftime. This should be a blowout if FIU forces a ton of turnovers.

Hold Your Own on Special Teams

I said the Golden Panthers are good in all three phases and I wasn’t playing around. FIU has an NFL punter in Stone Wilson. The Golden Panthers have had great success returning punts as well, averaging over 22 yards per return. They kick over 80% on their field goals (9-for-11 on the year).

WKU is very pedestrian in every special teams category. Against a team that is great at it, limiting mistakes and hoping to bust one will be key to giving the Tops hope. If WKU gets blasted in this area, they better be extraordinary everywhere else.

Win the Passing Game

FIU’s defense is awesome, especially against opponents’ passing attacks. One of WKU’s strengths offensively is its ability to gain chunks through the air. FIU’s passing attack is decent and efficient, but nowhere near prolific.

This statistic could be crucial in indicating WKU’s ability to upset. If WKU gets slaughtered through the air, can the Tops really rely on the run game to help them out? Probably not. Therefore, win the passing game.

Win the Big Moments

Seems kind of vague, huh? Want to know why? WKU is yet to show an ability to overcome issues — whatever they may be — and win a game. WKU’s lone win was against a Ball State team that thought providing multiple first downs via penalty for the Tops wasn’t that big of a deal.

Third down, Fourth down, red zone, end of half and end of game need to be at least decent for WKU. Otherwise, WKU needs to win in a blowout, and that is hardly likely, given the Toppers’ inability to score.

Win the Fourth Quarter

This seems out of character and impossible to ask of WKU, but the Tops need a strong fourth quarter.

Here is a problem: FIU is outscoring its opponents 52–6 in the fourth quarter this year. That’s good for less than a point a game given up defensively. I refuse to spend my time off from work researching fourth quarter scoring margins in college football, but suffice it to say outscoring opponents by a touchdown a game in the fourth quarter is incredible.

WKU must be ahead at this point, or the Tops will struggle against a well-coached, talented, clutch team in FIU. Butch Davis is a great coach with experience at higher levels of football. Mike Sanford’s career as a head coach is (presumably) just getting started. Can Sanford hold his own in the 4th quarter, or will the Hilltoppers wilt like a tropical plant in 45 degree weather?

WKU Wins If…

Multiple things go right for the Tops. WKU needs to overcome deficiencies offensively, defensively, and on special teams. In no particular area does WKU seem to be even or ahead. Perhaps the defensive lines are equally productive, and kick returns are similar. Perhaps WKU has a slight advantage on kickoff coverage, but I’m really digging deep here.

This just does not feel like a good match-up for WKU. Every area of strength for the Tops will probably be stifled by an equally strong unit for FIU. Any avenue in which WKU is terrible, FIU seems to crush the Tops. Dear Old Western will probably be in the game, but the Red and White needs to pull something extraordinary and out of character Saturday. If Sanford and the boys pull it out, there really should be nothing to do but be impressed with the effort. This would be a signature win against a team that is probably going to win the East Division of Conference USA.

However, Western is absolutely talented enough to win. Does the team buy in? Are there sideline/internal issues brewing? Are the coaches on the same page? What is the game strategy in certain situations?

If I’m pinning one thing as pivotal, it’s WKU’s passing game vs the FIU secondary. Shanley and whichever other quarterback must protect the ball at all costs. WKU must be able to move the ball, or FIU will run roughshod and blow Western out. If Shanley can’t pass, it will be a long day at The Houch.