WKU Football: Five Important Things Ahead of Old Dominion

Well, here we are Tops! Halfway through the season, WKU (1–5, 0–2 C-USA) is on pace to win two games. Now, is that going to happen? I have…

Well, here we are Tops! Halfway through the season, WKU (1–5, 0–2 C-USA) is on pace to win two games. Now, is that going to happen? I have no idea, but certainly the Sanford train must get rolling.

For this match-up, Old Dominion (1–6, 0–4 C-USA) is a strange opponent to scout. From a record standpoint, they must be horrible. Then again, that “1” in the win column is against a ranked opponent, Virginia Tech. In addition to this strangeness, this 1–6 team has two absolute studs who probably should be drafted in 2019. Jonathan Duhart averages over 100 yards per game receiving, and defensive end Oshane Ximines is fourth on the team in tackling and averages over a sack a game.

Despite preseason expectations for both teams, this game has become a battle for the ability to stay in contention for bowl eligibility.

The Five Things

Keep Oshane Ximines Human

There is no question this guy is a monster. He’s on pace to get 14.5 sacks on a team that may not win another game all year! In addition to those sacks, he’s fourth on the team in tackling, has one-third of the team’s tackles for loss, has an interception, has eight more quarterback hits, forced two fumbles, and even blocked a kick. This guy is an absolute monster against the run, pass, and on special teams.

Besides this guy, Old Dominion’s defense is horrible. If WKU can just keep him to his average or less, this is huge for WKU. How does ODU stop WKU if not with this guy blowing things up in the backfield?

Hold Jonathan Duhart and Travis Fulgham Under 150 Yards Total

Duhart averages 105.3 receiving yards per contest. Fulgham (69.9) is the only other Monarch receiver averaging more than 40 yards per game. Slow down these two, and WKU may hold Old Dominion under 20 points. Let them go wild, and this will be difficult to overcome for the Tops.

WKU’s secondary is supposed to be the strength of the defense. If WKU can win this battle, they are giving their offense a much better chance to outscore ODU.

Win the rushing battle

Both teams now average within a yard of each other rushing the football each game, so in an even battle, the rushing games may make the difference. If Coach Sanford plans on starting Drew Eckels, perhaps the Topper run game will look as good as it did in the first few weeks of the season. Regardless of who is leading the team or toting the rock, WKU once again faces a team that generally can’t rush the football. This has happened multiple times this season, and each time, WKU came up short.

Having a rushing game is crucial for the Tops. It was said last week: It doesn’t matter how it happens, but find a running game quick.

Don’t Lose the Game Because of Penalties

In a bizarre statistic for a team with a losing record, Old Dominion only averages 41 yards per game in penalties. WKU averages over 60. Western has had several opportunities negated by foolish penalties. This game has been chippy each time. Which team does something stupid that costs them a drive or two? In a game that should be a coin flip, hidden yardage could play a deciding role.

Win 3rd and 4th Down Decisively

First of all, WKU loves to go for it on fourth down, and has less than a 25% chance to convert (2-for-9 in 2018). The Toppers actually have a decisive advantage in this category. Combining 3rd and 4th down, WKU has converted 35-for-96 (36.5%) offensively. Defensively, WKU allows its opponents a shade over 40% (37-for-90). Old Dominion is 39/116 (33.6%) offensively. Defensively, the Monarchs are horrifying when trying to get off the field. Old Dominion gets off of the field 44.4% (52-for-117) of the time.

This is huge for myriad reasons, but both teams struggle to succeed in the big moments. What bigger moment is there in a game than third and fourth down? Somebody will win or lose because of this statistic. Be it a foolish fourth down attempt, an inability to pass the ball, an inability to run it in short yardage, or a huge fourth down at the end of the game, five or six third and fourth downs will decide this game.

The Tops Beat Old Dominion If…

WKU holds the stars in check. When analyzing this game, what is the greatest difference between WKU and Old Dominion? Draft picks and superstars. Despite ODU being firmly in the basement so far this year, they could have three (certainly two) all-conference players. Both of the shoe-ins should play in the NFL. What superstars does WKU boast? Perhaps Ta’corian Darden, but other than that, who can take over a game for the Tops? Who will play at the next level? Maybe Drelle Greene? The point is, NFL players in college can take over ball games. Think about it. Who has taken over a football game and won the game or gave WKU a chance?

If WKU can keep ODU’s stars in check, WKU probably wins. This game is a virtual coin flip according to Vegas. One or two plays should decide the outcome. WKU must find a running game, and the defense must be able to defend the pass.