WKU Football: Five Important Things Ahead of The Moonshine Throwdown

Well, the Tops are off the schneid. After three games in a row (and two more to end 2017) in the loss column, Western Kentucky football got…

Well, the Tops are off the schneid. After three games in a row (and two more to end 2017) in the loss column, Western Kentucky football got back to its winning ways Saturday against Ball State, finishing off the Cardinals with an impressive closing drive, 28–20 in Muncie, Indiana.

Good for them.

As a reward, the Toppers get to host Marshall, a team Mike Sanford coined in his weekly press conference as the “most talented team in the league”. Marshall tanked its way to an 8–5 record in 2017, losing four of its last five regular season games, or they would seem even more impressive heading into 2018.

That being said, this is a formidable opponent with legitimate talent and a significant set of expectations from a great fan base. This is a budding rivalry and Marshall has received most of the brunt of the bad blood, when WKU ruined their undefeated season in 2014 and completely broke their will in 2016, losing 60–6 at home.

However, WKU comes in looking for revenge from a 30–23 loss to the Thundering Herd in 2017. Topper basketball fans will be seeking revenge for the heartbreaking end to the Conference USA Men’s Basketball Championship, in which WKU came back from 12 to lose by one point, including a basket that rimmed out with seconds remaining. Marshall won that thriller 67–66. In a new installment of the Moonshine Throwdown, a developing rivalry, this shall be no easy task for the red and white.

How Does WKU Beat Marshall?

WKU Needs to Stay Close in the Penalty Battle

Here’s a developing story line for WKU that they must correct quickly: WKU had over 100 yards in penalties against Ball State. Fortunately for the Tops, Ball State happened to soil their own litter box more than Western. That is extremely unlikely from Marshall. To date, Marshall is the 45th least penalized team in the country. Where is WKU, you may ask? Oh 95th after Saturday’s sinful display.

WKU nearly lost against Ball State because of a defensive pass interference penalty on 3rd-and-forever. WKU center Seth Joest had three holding penalties by himself. These things can’t happen if the Toppers lay their heads down to sleep praying for victory against the Thundering Herd.

Get Pressure on Isaiah Greene

Marshall has only given up four sacks in three games. WKU’s defensive line and linebackers have gotten into the backfield on a regular basis. Greene is inaccurate and can make mistakes. He’s also a true freshman. If I’m Clayton White, I’m trying to make a true freshman figure out a puzzle on each down of the game. Make him think.

If WKU can get some kind of pressure, this is a huge coup against a Marshall line that just doesn’t give up much so far this year.

Win the Ground Game

Marshall is less deep than WKU on the ground. Running backs Keion Davis and Tyler King combine for 80 yards per game, but WKU has four running backs available that could start and produce. WKU also has the advantage on the ground at QB.

Barring bizarre circumstances, WKU will have to move the ball on the ground against Marshall. Neither team holds the ball for more than 29:54 a game (WKU). Running the ball could allow one team to keep it out of the others’ hands and minimize scoring opportunities.

Win the Turnover Battle

Marshall has seven turnovers through three games. WKU has four through four games. Ultimately, the stats will reveal why one team lost and another won. If one team breaks its tendency, it will really help or really damage its chances. This is an area, especially with two young starting quarterbacks, that could absolutely determine the outcome depending on when and where turnovers happen.

Win the Quarterback Position Decisively

WKU needs several things to go right. Vegas expects WKU to lose at home. WKU definitely has the more suspect receivers, but Western’s QB’s are more accurate than Isaiah Greene. Greene is clearly a legitimate talent on pace to throw over 3,000 yards his freshman year. However, a true freshman simply does not have the same experience as an upperclassmen, or even a redshirt freshman or sophomore.

If WKU wants to beat Marshall, the offense is going to need to make plays in big moments. Is it a long pass play? Is it an accurately thrown pass in the middle of the field? Is it a scramble for 27 yards, like Steven Duncan had against Ball State? Some young quarterback is going to make a boneheaded play, or another may be the late game hero. This particular match-up feels like quarterbacks could be the actual difference more than usual.

WKU Wins…

If the Tops play extremely well. Ultimately, they cannot get penalized for 100+ yards, can’t afford to mess up in the red zone, and can’t give up huge chunk plays, especially in big moments. Sanford needs to be solid, and whatever crazy risks he takes need to work. Ultimately, the pitchforks stay in the barn if you don’t cost the team the game.

Marshall’s strength offensively is big plays through the air. If the Tops can either get pressure and force turnovers or keep those receivers in front of them and limit chunk plays, Marshall will be forced to put drives together and run the ball with success. Missed tackles are death to a defense facing big, skilled, physical receivers.

Basically, if the Tops play clean and disciplined, they give themselves a pretty good chance for the upset. Play terrible and Marshall could absolutely destroy any momentum from that much needed win last week. With both teams still a mystery, this is just about a coin flip heading into Saturday’s tilt in Bowling Green.