WKU Football: Five Important Things Ahead of UTEP

Western Kentucky football has been…let’s say beleaguered this season. Standing at 1–9 and winless in Conference USA, WKU is desperate for a…

Western Kentucky football has been…let’s say beleaguered this season. Standing at 1–9 and winless in Conference USA, WKU is desperate for a win.

Meanwhile, the UTEP Miners are riding a wave of adrenaline, as its 20 game losing streak was recently snapped against Rice two Saturdays ago.

Two programs going in different directions, WKU has not come close to a victory since nearly defeating Old Dominion on October 20 in a 37–34 loss at home. UTEP (1–9, 1–5 C-USA) has only been blown out once in its past seven games, and that was against the only squad left undefeated in Conference USA, UAB.

Sadly, this will be a tough ask for WKU on its Senior Night. What do the Tops need to do to win it?

Five Keys for WKU

Steven Duncan Must Take Care of the Football

Turnover prone quarterback Steven Duncan has been named as the official starter Saturday. Duncan is responsible for five of WKU’s eight interceptions despite only starting three games. Duncan has also fumbled several times, most notably at the end of the Toppers’ game against Marshall in a three point loss. Western was in the red zone at the time and Duncan fumbled on third down, losing the ball to Marshall in the waning seconds.

Duncan’s main deficiency besides consistent production is decision making and turnovers. As a quarterback, the number one impact besides spreading out the defense is game management.

Contain the Three-Headed Rushing Attack

For a 1–9 team to average 31 minutes per game in Time of Possession, they must make a concerted effort to run the football. The stats play that out. UTEP averages well under 200 yards passing and, instead, makes their hay controlling the clock and running the football with the running backs and quarterback. UTEP has three guys averaging at least 28 yards per game, including the quarterback, their second leading rusher. Historically, WKU struggles with running quarterbacks. This is a bad match-up in this area for WKU.

Western gives up nearly 200 yards rushing per game, and this has steadily increased over the season. WKU has been utterly destroyed on the ground of late. If WKU can just hold UTEP under 200 rushing yards, that is a win for the Toppers. It is difficult to see UTEP passing for significant yardage. Stop the run, Tops.

Be Respectable in the Red Zone

In a bizarre stat for a 1–9 football team, UTEP is excellent in the red zone. The Miners are over 80% overall and 60% of the time, they come away with a touchdown. Western is terrible in the red zone, only scoring 72% of the time, only scoring a touchdown 56% of the time. Defensively, both teams are porous, but once again, WKU allows a score 86% of the time.

This stat alone suggests WKU actually plays like a 1–9 team. They squander. UTEP doesn’t. More on that later, but this stat suggests they don’t mess up once they get down deep in opponents’ territory. Their issue is getting there.

Dominate the Chunk Plays

WKU’s home run threat Jacquez Sloan is out for the year with a torn ACL. Somebody else has to step up for the Tops or it will be difficult for them to get it rolling. One of WKU’s strengths that did carry over from the Brohm era is the ability to get chunk plays. Multiple times a game, the Tops find ways to bust several 30+ yard plays, almost exclusively through the air. With the emergence of true freshman Joshua Samuel, however, perhaps the running game can shine in this area. Defensively, WKU has been increasingly prone to allow big plays as the season has progressed. At one time a defense averaging a respectable 380 yards per game, now the Topper D is allowing nearly 430 yards per contest.

Both of these defenses are poor. Both give up 30 points per game. Both give up chunk plays on the ground. Who has the best of it, though? Whichever defense bends the least may determine the outcome. With WKU’s margin for error much smaller than UTEP’s (again, more on that later), this is a must-win category for the Tops.

Utterly Dominate the Trenches

This actually seems to be a distinct advantage for Western. WKU’s front six (since they run a 4–2–5 defense) is very respectable, getting nearly as many sacks (19) as they allow (26). Ben Holt is a machine. UTEP’s offensive line has been slaughtered this year, allowing 33 sacks. Defensively, UTEP has only gotten home on 15 plays this season. WKU’s offensive line has been much more effective in recent games, despite the losing streak, allowing Joshua Samuel and the supporting cast to bust some big plays.

In a game full of advantages for UTEP, WKU must dominate the few areas it can. If WKU is getting blasted back into the backfield, or if the defense gets no push, this is a disaster for WKU. They need to win this part of the game.

How WKU Beats UTEP: Overcome the Match-up

Honestly, across the board, UTEP seems to be better in some crucial areas, and the stats play out that UTEP is better coached. UTEP is significantly less talented, but WKU is not efficient in certain areas that have nothing to do with talent.

UTEP is good on special teams, except for punting, which WKU is also terrible in. Despite getting 50+ less yards and more turnovers offensively than WKU, UTEP scores slightly more than the Tops. UTEP gives up less yards defensively.

WKU has a distinct advantage in four areas: The line of scrimmage, offensive yards, turnovers, and the passing game, especially related to chunk plays. Other than that, frankly, UTEP is even or better.

UTEP feels like a 3–6 type of team. They’re still engaged and completely interested in their season. WKU feels like its record. UTEP is on the rise and it would be folly to deny that WKU is on the decline. Even if WKU wins its last two, it has decreased its win total each of the last three years from 2015, when the Tops won 12 games.

The bottom line, though is WKU must win this game. This has felt like a game WKU would be favored in, and it has turned out to be true (WKU favored by seven). Time and again, Western seems to have a chance despite it all. This game could be Mike Sanford in a nutshell, or it could possibly save his job. Without question, losing to UTEP should be the final nail in his coffin.

From a locker room perspective, hopefully both teams have pride to finish the season right. No one wants to be embarrassed with a one win season. No one wants to finish on a losing streak. Let’s see which team(s) come out ready to go and which team(s) is/are just ready for it to be over. For the sake of sitting outside in cool weather on my weekend, please let it be a good game, Lord.