WKU Football: Five Strategy Moves to Save Mike Sanford

So if you didn’t see Sam Gormley’s piece last week on his five ideas to turn the program around, check it out. Excellent piece.

So if you didn’t see Sam Gormley’s piece last week on his five ideas to turn the program around, check it out. Excellent piece.

I’m going to take it a step further.

Sam gave you the overall program view of things. What can Sanford do administratively to fix the program?

It was a fine list, Samuel. It really is a good list of tips, but I want to take it further. How specifically can Sanford get better on the field? Between these two lists, maybe we can help him out. The Louisville game perhaps gave him a few more bargaining chips to his case, but ultimately not parlaying this performance with future victories will cost him.

We already published an article where most of us put him squarely on the hot seat before the Louisville game, but if he turns it around, he could keep his job and actually lead the program back to where it should be.

If he ain’t fired, he’s in with a chance, right?

The list

Decision Making

HELLO?!?!? I mean, before that 4th-and-1 run up the middle in the Maine game (after getting stuffed on the same play call on third down) in a tie game with no momentum on our own 15 in the third quarter (that explanation just got worse as it went along), I honestly thought Coach Sanford was doing a pretty good job calling plays in that game, and more importantly, making in-game decisions. However, that decision immediately changed that opinion.

In addition to this call, going for it on 4th-and-4 on the 42 yard line late in the second quarter up 14 against Maine is questionable, as well. Worst case scenario (besides a block), Maine starts at its own 20 after a touchback. Given the fact punter Alex Rinella has punted 19 times and only punted longer than 42 yards three times, chances are nearly 85% that thing peters out before the goal line. You have three timeouts. You could get the ball back at midfield or better and try to get in field goal range, but almost definitely, Maine is not marching down the field for 90 or so yards and cutting the deficit to 7. If they do, good for them, but punting makes it nearly impossible.

Now, in the Louisville game, Sanford was very good. The commentators loved his play calling, and frankly, one play on the goal line where the quarterback made a poor decision on a read option is not really on him, either.

What’s the number one thing people are upset about? Decision making. Sanford made some strange calls last year, but let’s call it like it is: That 4th-and-1 has to be top five worst calls I’ve ever seen, given the timing of it, on top of having zero positive benefit if you get a first down on a run play up the middle. Frankly, I’m being nice only saying top five.

Play Calling

Last year, it was a huge issue. Now, Mike Jr. is calling the shots, so presumably, it should be better. In the Wisconsin game, honestly the plays were there to be made, and I left that game feeling like coach had called some good plays. The one play that surely stood out as questionable was the trick play in the red zone. Yeah, Drew Eckels was open and the ball was a “lollipop” as the announcer said on the broadcast, but surely you’ve got a better play than that in your playbook at a critical moment. To me, the Louisville game is similar. Sanford called a much better game than the Maine game. Anyone who disagrees is just looking for something to complain about.

Also, Average Joe in the stands pretty much knows what your playbook is, or it all seems the same. That’s a problem. If Joe Schmo has you pegged, fill-in-the-blank-decent-coach will dismantle you. There are some nuances, but here’s what I noticed: Sanford loves calling crossing patterns and rub routes. These are designed to run defenders into each other and hopefully free up at least one receiver outside of the hash.

That’s a good concept, but when you run it at the same distance about ten times in a game in big moments on obvious passing downs, that’s predictable, and if you run it at less than ten yards on 3rd-and-10, you’re setting your guys up to come up just short.

There have to be some running plays that show some variety. I think the Tops ran a draw against Maine one time. I believe he ran a draw in the Louisville game. Somebody correct me if I’m wrong, but I counted one time. Can anyone think of another time Sanford ran three total draws in his 16 games so far? How many times did Sanford run a counter? I counted once in the Louisville game. The read option was successful against Wisconsin and Louisville. Why was it not run more frequently against Maine? In an unofficial count, I would say it was run way less than ten times in that game. That was the only reason you had a running game against Wisconsin. Louisville was a much more diverse output from the running game, but the read was still instrumental in moving the ball. Why step away from it?

If I’m Mike Sanford, I hopefully realize I need some variety. Use some misdirection. Get tricky. Lead the entire play to one side of the field and throw to the other. Use two running backs at one time. Use Kyle Fourtenbary as a true fullback on five plays. Try six linemen. Try pistol. Try a tunnel screen. Use motion to line up a big receiver as an extra blocker. Run a pitch play.

In-Game Adjustments

I thought there were some decent adjustments during the Wisconsin game. However, Wisconsin is incredibly vanilla in their approach; they line up and try to beat you one on one. WKU’s offensive line had few issues dealing with Wisconsin, because Wisconsin didn’t take very many risks and didn’t confuse the young linemen.

Terry Obee mentioned it in the postgame radio talks. Maine ran a 5–2–4 (Bear) defense after the very beginning of the game. Basically, WKU was whooping them, so Maine said, “You know what? We’re bringing five every down and clogging up the middle.” That really stole the middle of the field for the Black Bears, and from that point forward, WKU struggled to move the ball.

A Bear defense is basically an all-out run defense. Maine clogged up the holes and forced Western to either beat them with the running game (yeah right) or have Eckels beat them through the air, a brilliant strategy. The Topper passing game fizzled out, Eckels came back to Earth, and after the first 5:03 of the game, WKU mustered only 266 yards against an FCS team.

In the Louisville game, WKU was massively improved, but again unquestionably produced less in the second half than the first. Part of that was Louisville waking up and playing better defense and offense, but ultimately, you have got to find ways to get six in tough situations late.

There has to be some adjustment. If a team clogs up the middle, run some quick passes to the outside. As I mentioned earlier, if you run crossing routes against significant pressure, good luck getting the ball out of your quarterback’s hands before he gets murdered. If you run some quick screens, slants, or outs and complete most of them, some of those plays are going to bust open if your opponent makes a mistake. With the opponent dedicating themselves to stifling the trenches, setting up one-on-one battles before the defense can get home against your line is ideal for you in the passing game.

It’s a little more complicated than this, but if your opponent is obviously stopping the run and overwhelming your offensive line, run quick pass plays and force them to back off. If they’re stopping the pass, run the ball away from the linebackers, or allow for underneath throws to be an option for five yards instead of running verticals against four deep defensive backs. If they’re not blitzing, feel free to run a slow-developing play or two.

If the defense’s strength is its secondary, run plays where the secondary is unlikely to play a factor. If it’s linebackers, attract the linebackers away from the play and run to the spot they vacated. Defensive line? Keep a running back or tight end near the backfield, or chip at the line and try not to run super complicated, slow-developing plays. These things are not difficult concepts. Is the defense running Cover 2? Cloud? Cover 3? Man? Bear? Nickel? Stunts? Blitzing? 3–4? Come on now.

Solidify Your Running Backs and Play to Their Strengths

Let’s blow your mind a little bit; through the first two games and no running back injuries, no running back had more than nine rushing attempts on the season. You had a running back with a 75 yard touchdown (which did not remotely happen last year) and 103 total yards receiving in Garland LaFrance.

He’s also your leading rusher, averaging 4.1 yards per rush.

To me, that’s a starting running back. You had one other running back averaging over four yards per carry, who has starting experience, and has had impressive individual moments in his career. That is D’Andre Ferby. To me, get those guys at least 25 touches and spell them with whoever you feel like earns the third spot for another five or ten touches.

In the Louisville game, once again, the Tops showed some hope. WKU actually fed one back and spelled him with a few other helpers. By current standards, Ferby went wild, rushing for the most yards by a single rusher since Sanford took over.

Ultimately, you have to pick a horse to ride on. You can’t keep dancing around the stable brushing their hair and taking them for walks around the paddock, admiring their manes. It is time to make a decision on who your real rotation is. Decide before the game how many carries you want your main running backs to have, but someone should have at least ten carries in every single game. You are doing each of them a disservice by jerking them out, allowing them to get cold, and then asking them to go randomly get a first down two quarters later.

Also, play to their strengths. I’m trying two screens with LaFrance every single game. Maybe he’ll bust one. I’m running Ferby out there in the red zone, in short yardage, and in obvious passing situations. I’m putting Trigg out there on the goal line and that’s pretty much it. I might try Appleberry and Samuel on occasion, but I’d probably put them out there with help. Maybe put them on the field and be sure you’ve got extra protection, or put another running back or a fullback out there to help them. Don’t leave freshmen on an island, or don’t put them in at huge moments.

That being said, try maybe ten plays against the strengths of your backs. You have to throw some curve balls in there and see if somebody can bust a run or do something out of character. Maybe the defense makes a mistake, because they’ve game planned for your backs to be able to do certain things.

If it was my decision, I’m starting Ferby and spelling him with Garland LaFrance. Then if I need a back for certain situations, I’ve got three others that have different strengths and can be used situationally.

Figure Out Who Your Receivers Are and Set Them Up for Success

Okay let’s get blunt; Xavier Lane needs to be a minor role player until he proves he can catch the ball. After being targeted several times against Wisconsin and Maine, he had five catches and 48 yards to show for it. He is always open, and he’s a good blocker, but if he costs you 50 yards a game in drops, someone else can get out there and produce more than that. It was much better to see him out there occasionally against Louisville.

Lucky Jackson needs to start every game and be considered your “go to” receiver. Lucky is top five all-time in freshman and sophomore receiving yards. Guess who wasn’t able to do that: Taywan Taylor. I’m not saying he’s better than Taywan at all, but when someone puts up those kinds of numbers early, they’re very special. Get him the ball in every way you can.

You have two good tight ends in Fourtenbary and Mik’Quan Dean. Fourtenbary produced last year in limited minutes. To me, this guy could be an absolute weapon in a variety of situations. He has size and girth like a fullback, but can move and catch. He can block, too. He was solely responsible for 14 of the 17 points against Louisville.

Dean is a burner, and he’s had some opportunities for huge plays negated by a poor pass from Eckels. He was open for a touchdown from Shanley against UofL, but the defensive back just made a nice play. But in an offense most likely bound to struggle running the ball and protect the quarterback, tight ends can be a safety valve when the quarterback is under pressure. They can also take the top off of the defense with speed, especially if the opposing defense is vacating the middle of the field.

Jernigan and Sloan seem to be the other two significant contributors from the receiving corps. Jernigan is a big guy who can catch the ball. He’s probably rarely busting a big play, but he’s going to be dependable. He was awesome against Louisville. Jacquez Sloan has the ability to take the top off of the defense, and I’d certainly take a shot or two with him every game.

You have some weapons in the passing game, but besides putting the ball on target, Sanford has to put these guys in good positions to make plays. If a receiver is a big guy, let him do big boy things like curls and slants. If he’s a burner, let him run long routes. If he’s a versatile tight end, let him do some cool things that make the defense freak out.

I firmly believe a solution to either Wisconsin or Maine could have been short passes. Short passes give your guys a chance to break a tackle and make a bigger play, but it also puts pressure on the defense to slow your march down the field down. It’s also basically like adding some extra run plays, and once you get the defense worried about the pass, then all of a sudden, the playbook opens up.

If you look at the success of the Topper offense against Louisville, what happened? Short, successful passes spread amidst successful run plays.

Honorable Mention: Find a punter

Rinella is doing a good job filling in for the loss of Collins, but he simply cannot be a game changer on special teams. He’s done a decent job, but he’s a kicker converted to a punter because of necessity. Go find somebody on campus and create some competition for your special teams unit. Hendrix Brakefield came from an idea like this.

Edit After the Louisville Game: Start Davis Shanley

From someone who has been in the WKU locker room before, I know if a situation like this had come up, at minimum, the quarterback competition would now be wide open between Eckels, Shanley and Duncan, regardless of health. Honestly, though, look at the two (well three) quarterback’s numbers. Eckels is barely completing half of his passes, while Shanley is completing two out of three. Duncan does not have enough of a sample size, but since he started against Louisville, I would assume they thought he was more deserving than Shanley by a slight margin. He has to be in the hunt.

That being said, Shanley has a rushing touchdown and is the fourth leading rusher on the team in addition to being able to sling the ball accurately. To make it more obvious, what moments has Shanley had that you as a viewer wished he could have back? Perhaps his one booboo was his decision to keep the ball on the read option at the goal line. How many has Eckels had? I’d say at least ten of his 29 missed passes were largely because of inaccuracy. Several of those were possible touchdowns.

In my opinion, give Shanley the chance to win the job, and if there is no tangible difference in practice, give Shanley the start and see what happens.

So How Does Mike Sanford Keep His Job?

There need to be some adjustments in game strategy. The Tops clearly have some talent, so let’s put these guys in the best position to do that. There doesn’t have to be incredibly sophisticated concepts to be successful, but being decent at everything will go a long way in helping the Tops.

Football is more about exposing weaknesses than maximizing strengths. Sure, a running back that can run for 200 yards on 15 carries is wonderful, but a quarterback throwing five interceptions is usually more impactful. If Mike Sanford could be pretty good at the things we’ve talked about, WKU Football would start heading back in the right direction.

Between Sam and I, we have identified ten to twelve things Mike Sanford can do to immediately improve his outlook and quality of his coaching job. Perhaps some are more realistic than others, but ultimately, the Tops need to win some games. With a loss to Maine and an 0–3 start, the margin has slimmed significantly. However, pulling it together and making a run would go a long way in silencing the naysayers.