WKU Football: Forecasting WKU’s Remaining Schedule With ESPN’s FPI
The bye week is in the rear view mirror and the Hilltoppers have their eyes set on finishing 2018 strong; seven games remain, four of which…
The bye week is in the rear view mirror and the Hilltoppers have their eyes set on finishing 2018 strong; seven games remain, four of which are road affairs, and bowl eligibility is not out of the question (although it’ll take some sort of turnaround to get there).
Before the season began, we took a look at ESPN’s preseason FPI projections for the Tops schedule, which said WKU would go 6–6.
Here’s how WKU has done, so far, in games played:
at Wisconsin
ESPN’s FPI gave the Tops a 1.3% chance to win. WKU lost, 34–3.
vs. Maine
This was the biggest miss, obviously, of the FPI. The Tops were 81% favorites and lost, 31–28.
at Louisville
Another big miss by FPI, as the Tops were given a 4.2% chance. Although it was still a loss, everyone of us would have taken a 20–17 result back in July.
at Ball State
FPI favored the Tops in this one, by 52.3%, and it remains WKU’s lone win, 28–20.
vs. Marshall
Another projection that was a bit off; yes, the Tops still lost, 20–17, but the Tops were tied or had a lead for a majority of the contest. Prior to the year beginning, the Tops had just a 17.7% chance, per FPI.
And while, sans Maine, FPI still projected the end result correctly in the post-bye season, the Hilltoppers have performed better than FPI might have suggested.
So, what does current FPI project for the remainder of the year?
at Charlotte
What was a 50.3% predicted win for the Tops is now at 63.9%.
vs. Old Dominion
The ODU FPI has shifted as well; what was a preseason 56.3% predicted win for WKU is now at 67.5%.
vs. FIU
This matchup has done a…well, what’s more than a 180? Like a 270? WKU was favored preseason, 58.6% (though, still essentially a toss up), but now the Tops sit at just a 38.1% chance.
at MTSU
This one surprises me a bit; FPI gave the Tops just 18.4% against MT heading into the year and, as it stands, they’re at 24%. Granted, the Blue Raiders are still pretty heavy favorites, but it’s interesting that the Tops are given a better, not worse, chance, especially after the Raiders’ convincing wins against Marshall and FAU.
at FAU
Here’s a change that isn’t that surprising; heading into the year, the Tops were given just a 12.3% chance against the All Mighty Lane Train. Now, the Tops have jumped to a 21.4% chance. (Is it sad that that gives me some hope?)
vs. UTEP
The Tops opened the season as 83.3% favorites and are now favored by 87.2%.
at La Tech
This is another matchup that is interesting, FPI wise: Before the year, the Tops were given just 14.2%, but now sit at 21.7%.
While the Hilltoppers, unsurprisingly, haven’t changed from underdogs to favorites in any matchups they did increase their FPI in every matchup, favorite or underdog, with the exception of the FIU game which, sure I get.
With the loss of status of favorites against FIU, the Tops’ predicted finish now sits at 4–8.