WKU Football: Gameday Information for the Tops at UTEP
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Western Kentucky Football somehow has an opportunity to pull a “phoenix from the ashes” type of moment out of what has in some ways felt like a cursed season. That’s a bit extreme to say it that way, but certainly WKU has not had luck on its side, and the “wow” factor is yet to show up for a full game.
Yet here we sit, Topper fans. the second half of the conference season is about to get underway, and it looks like the Tops have a real shot at a championship appearance. It starts tonight at UTEP.
Game Day Information
Opponent: The University of Texas at El Paso (UTEP)
Game Date: Saturday, November 4, 2023
Time: 8:00 PM CT
Location: The Sun Bowl | El Paso, Texas
TV Channel: ESPN+
Betting line: WKU -9.5, O/U 54.5
All-Time Series Record: WKU 3-0
Last Time Out: 11/17/18 40-16 WKU
Quick Thoughts
This WKU team has been unpredictable week to week in terms of what style the game will take on, how the offense looks, how the defense handles the opposing offense, and just in general. You never know exactly how WKU’s game will go that week.
However, the Tops have performed to expectation in the win and loss column, slightly underperforming to the expectation of the public. The spread on gameday has settled in WKU’s favor on five of eight occasions in 2023. WKU has won four of its eight games with zero upsets in WKU’s favor.
Given significant expectation and a mountain of injuries stacking up throughout the season, it makes sense that the Hilltoppers maybe have underperformed and seemingly been discombobulated. They’ve seemed “lost at sea”, so to speak.
Regardless of the doldrums and the two game skid, WKU is still in the driver’s seat for the second spot in the Conference USA Championship Game.
That’s right. Win and they’re in. They would travel to Lynchburg to try to avenge a home loss to Liberty.
There is another title game scenario where New Mexico State could host Liberty if Liberty lost two games, WKU lost to NMSU, and NMSU won the rest of its games.
(For those looking at the standings and saying, “Wait what about Jacksonville State?”, the Gamecocks are ineligible for a Conference USA title this season due to FBS transition.)
Despite the details, again, if the Tops take care of business, they’re guaranteed in with a chance to shock Liberty for the Conference USA title.
Matt McCay’s Keys to Victory
Handle the Extras
It is noteworthy that this is a game on the road after a long flight, after an 11 day break, at 3,700 feet of altitude, in dry Texas heat. As a former equipment staff member, I know it was more difficult making sure nothing got screwed up and the truck showed up on time. Long road trips are hard on everybody in that locker room. Those are all distractions that could keep WKU from doing its job. Now, should any of that keep WKU from producing a W? No it shouldn’t. But watch out. Stuff happens.
Understand Your Opponent
What personally scares me about this moment in the season is where both teams are mentally. I’d like to think WKU is now going to be locked in, realizing how lucky it is to somehow still be in control. However, what about UTEP? UTEP just had an encouraging offensive performance against Sam Houston State (37 points), scoring the most points all season and keeping the Miners at 3-6 instead of losing bowl eligibility after a galvanizing comeback from three scores down.
If you have ever followed College Football, or you have ever been involved in a football locker room, you hopefully catch my drift here. When a team has its back against the wall, if it has any kind of pride, that locker room is going to pull together and give their absolute all to remain in the hunt. No matter how ridiculous it seems to everyone else, I guarantee that’s the conversation for UTEP. WKU needs to understand that UTEP is unlikely just to fold up and say, “Oh well!” If it’s close at all, UTEP should know that WKU might hit a lull and have a shot.
Score 30
Simple: Play well on offense and score enough points. UTEP has a decent defense, so it’s not exactly easy to just do whatever you feel like on offense. UTEP also scored 37 last time out against a very good defense in Sam Houston. However, percentages say if someone scores 30 on UTEP, that team is almost certainly winning.
Convert Your Opportunities
When you look at statistics, one blaring discrepancy with UTEP is that they get about the same amount of yards and first downs as their opponent. However, the opponent ends up with about 50% more touchdowns than the Miners and has only failed in the red zone four times in 35 trips. If UTEP can keep WKU from converting in the red zone, that is a huge coup and evens things back up in this one.
Sack Master
This is a tough ask, but it would make a huge difference for WKU if the Tops were more prolific up front. UTEP gets a ton of sacks (22), but they also give up a ton of sacks (21). WKU has had injuries to linemen (and other positions) on both sides of the ball, so it’s not easy to continue the season’s trend (5 sacks surrendered; 18 sacks forced). However, if WKU could keep the sack numbers even or better with UTEP, I think this is a routine WKU win. UTEP needs a lot of things to just go completely south for WKU to not just ultimately score enough and win. Knocking down Austin Reed a bunch of times and forcing a couple of turnovers could easily swing this game in favor of the Miners.
Staff Predictions
Fletcher Keel (6-2)
No prediction
Matt McCay (7-1)
I never know how to predict this team’s tendency for the week. We’re also yet to see a full game from WKU in eight attempts. But in order to sift through the thoughts, in my opinion, not looking at statistical tendencies is not doing your due diligence.
The fact is on paper, this should be a double digit if not legit blowout WKU victory. UTEP scored 37 last week and still doesn’t average 20 points per game. WKU has sleepwalked to another quality offensive season and is still pretty much expected to score 30 every time out.
How does UTEP overcome the likelihood that they give up more than 30 to WKU on most nights? That issue alone makes me lean completely to WKU, and if the Tops lose, I’m sorry, but it’s a travesty. This is a game WKU better win, or pitchforks will be out in Bowling Green. Most people are already on edge, but a three game losing streak and losing to a 3-6 team? I picture Ross Shircliffe saying “unmitigated disaster” at least five separate times for sure.
I’ve got WKU winning easily.
Western Kentucky 38-UTEP 21.
Devin Stewart (6-1)
(Editor’s note) On the RedOut Podcast, Devin said he thought WKU would handle this one easily. He felt like it’s time, and the opponent is clearly not the most elite in Conference USA. Therefore…in his best Dickie V voice…
TOPS ON TOP, BABY!
42-17 Tops
Josh Owens of SSN WKU (4-1)
No prediction
Jared Rosdeutscher (6-0)
This is a must win for WKU. Plain and simple. Tops essentially have to win out to even have a sniff of being in the CUSA title game so winning against UTEP has to happen. Even with the recent struggles, I still see WKU bouncing back on the road at UTEP and winning, 35-27.
Alex Sherfield (5-2)
It’s no secret that tonight is a much needed bounce back game. After losses to Jacksonville State & Liberty, the Tops need to beat the Miners in order to keep their season alive for bowl game purposes.
Even though the 3-6 record tells a different story, a trip to the Sun Bowl isn’t easy. The Miners are coming off a 17-point comeback victory over Sam Houston State. However, they’re one of the lower-ranked teams in the country in terms of offensive production. They average 18 points per game & barely can crack over 200 yards during their 3-6 campaign. Their run game is the feature of the offense as they’re lethal at times. Running backs Deion Hankins & Torrance Burgess Jr. have combined for over 1,200 yards and will be the sole focus for Tyson Summers & the WKU defense.
Defensively, they’re a mixed bag. They’ve allowed 385 yards per game but their pass-defense attack should not be overlooked. As they also average in allowing 206 yards in the air, Austin Reed will definitely have to use some consideration in using all of his weapons along with a really balanced running game.
As I said, I wouldn’t say that this will be an easy contest in El Paso. But it’s for sure a game that NEEDS to be taken seriously in turning the page for the rest of 2023.
Give me WKU 31, UTEP 23
Wrapping it Up
It looks like the TTR staff completely expects WKU to win, but there’s definitely concern that this could be closer than it should be. Doesn’t that just kind of sum up the general sentiment in Topper nation? It’s hard to trust this team, but you really want to. It feels like you should be able to trust them, but they’ve never shown their full potential.
Regardless, it should be interesting to see how WKU’s second ever trip to El Paso plays out.
Stay tuned…