WKU Football: Grading Conference USA's Recent Additions in Football

Jacksonville State, Liberty, New Mexico State, and Sam Houston State each bring what exactly to Conference USA Football?

Conference USA football has not been that strong since the major conference shakeups in 2014. CUSA was in an excellent position at the time of Western Kentucky’s entry, but things seemed to go downhill quick and it’s a trajectory that still hasn’t quite settled yet.

Recently, former champions UTSA, FAU, and Marshall have all left the conference for “greener” pastures.

Of the five different schools that have won a CUSA championship since WKU entered the conference, four will not be conference members as of next Saturday. Only the Hilltoppers will remain.

The conference is now left with the question of whether it can compete at this level of FBS football. Others, like the AAC, the Mountain West and even the Sun Belt, all have an upper hand on Conference USA, both in terms of conference prestige and in revenue from media partners.

However, if Conference USA can cash in and get some transitioning programs up and running quickly, CUSA could perhaps compete for a New Year’s Six Bowl bid every few years.

So let’s break it down. What do CUSA’s incoming schools - Jacksonville State, Liberty, New Mexico State and Sam Houston State - bring to Conference USA football?

Liberty: The Immediate Conference Favorite

Immediate Competitiveness: A+ | Resources: A+ | Potential: A+ | Marketability: A

2022 Record: 8-5 (FBS Independents)

The Flames seriously bring a ton to Conference USA in general. Everything is good, they have a lot of money, a large online presence, and a lot of in-person fan support. There is no reason Liberty does not come in immediately and go toe-to-toe with Western Kentucky for the CUSA title in 2023. So many people take issue with Liberty on a personal and political level , but when looking strictly through an athletic lense, Liberty brings everything you could possibly want in a conference mate.

Mark my words: If Liberty hangs around at all in Conference USA or ends up in the same conference as WKU going forward, the Tops and Liberty will become massive rivals. Both schools should split conference titles in just about every sport, football included. In terms of 2023, specifically, Liberty has a few more question marks than a team like WKU, who seems to be verifiably loaded in all three phases, but the Flames could immediately win a conference championship and stay competitive every single season.

Watch out for them, especially if they fill in the gaps in their roster with any kind of quality.

New Mexico State

Immediate Competitiveness: B+ | Resources: C | Potential: C- | Marketability: D+

2022 Record (7-6 FBS Independents)

New Mexico State currently has a pretty decent team: They beat the likes of Liberty and Bowling Green State last year and is certainly in a good enough position to immediately make a bowl game and enter 2023 coming off a bowl-winning season (Quick Lane Bowl), their first since 2017.

That’s all positive.

However, they do stand to take a step or two back just because of program timing. The history is not there, the location is not great, and the only redeeming quality in terms of marketability for NMSU is the El Paso TV market. They don’t bring particular interest to most of CUSA and (especially in football), it’s kind of a “blah” type of pickup.

UTEP may be excited, but everyone else is, at best, neutral.

Sam Houston State

Immediate Competitiveness: D- | Resources: C+ | Potential: B- | Marketability: C

2022 Record (5-4, FCS Independents)

Going 5-4 last year in the FCS, Sam Houston was not even able to get a full schedule put together, only playing nine games as an FCS Independent with the intention of transitioning to Conference USA for 2023.

The Bearkats have recruited well heading into this season, with 247Sports ranking their 2023 class third in the conference (and ahead of Liberty) so don’t completely count them out this year.

However, football is different than most other sports where you can just plug and play. It takes a few years for even the best players to really get plugged in. The remaining FCS players, generally, do not translate to the same caliber of athlete as an FBS type of player.

Watch for Sam Houston in the future, though. I don’t think they’re a disastrous pickup for C-USA. They won an FCS title in 2020, have a good following and get the instant bump of being in Texas, which never hurts in terms of money and recruiting.

They have decent potential, but I would be surprised if they get to that four-win total that Vegas seems to think is their benchmark for the 2023 season.

Jacksonville State

Immediate Competitiveness: C | Resources: C | Potential: C+ | Marketability: C

2022 Record (9-2, 5-0 A-SUN)

I’m not sure if you can tell, but I’m not sure what to think of Jacksonville State. They won the Atlantic Sun last year and had a good year. Clearly, they were one of the better teams in the FCS, and Vegas is giving them their due respect, putting them at 5.5 predicted wins.

As a program transitioning to the FBS, that’s a really nice number to start with. Would you take the over, though? I would have trouble betting on any FCS team to come in and get things done. It’s not impossible, but why would Jacksonville State be the team to bet on? They’ll have a tough non-conference schedule, and every conference game will be a definite battle for them.

What gives me some pause is their recruiting rankings over the last two years. Including FCS teams, the Gamecocks have landed in the 150s and 160s, depending on your recruiting outfit of choice. In the aforementioned 247 recruiting rankings, the Gamecocks are dead last for their 2023 class (with WKU second to last).

Even if they’re being underestimated, the coaches are maximizing everybody and the culture is excellent, it’s just a lack of on-paper influx of talent that is missing as they enter the FBS.

I see JSU being in the bottom half of C-USA, but as a program with good current FCS talent, they could easily surprise us all.

Overall Impact on C-USA Football: Slightly Positive

I think football is one of the weakest sports in Conference USA right now, and that is unfortunate. But, I do believe there are several good things going on here. Frankly, some of the teams the AAC took are not really going to be missed by Conference USA. I view plenty of them as mistakes with shiny-looking media markets.

Yes, teams like UTSA, FAU, UAB and even North Texas are big losses, but teams like Charlotte never amounted to anything on the gridiron, despite years of being told big are coming while a school like Rice, who won the conference championship in 2013, have finished above .500 just once since and their 2023 win total of five was their most since 2015 (when they also won five).

Incoming, though, are an absolute on-field home run in Liberty, a currently solid FBS program in New Mexico State, a recent FCS national champ in Sam Houston and the best team from the ASUN a year ago in Jacksonville State.

As these programs come in, who knows how good they will be and on what timeline? However, given the significant blow to the conference in losing some of the best football members in recent memory, adding in members that are predicted to win conference games immediately is a win. According to Vegas oddsmakers, no newcomer is expected to win fewer than four games, and Liberty is expected to be a co-favorite immediately with WKU.

I think Conference USA fans should be cautiously optimistic about the overall state of CUSA football. If another round of realignment comes sooner rather than later, the conference could be in dire straits. However, for this football season, only FIU is expected to win less than four games. That’s the sign of what should be a pretty competitive conference with several bowl-eligible programs in the first year of the new era of Conference USA.

To be fair, on the negative side, there is not much margin for error, either. If WKU and Liberty bomb and the FCS programs come in and provide nothing of value, this could be a terrible year for Conference USA football. There are plenty reading this that probably feel that could happen, and certainly Conference USA could go that direction for the foreseeable future. But the more that I dig into it, the more I feel comfortable with the current makeup of Conference USA, and I believe at minimum, WKU and Liberty will not disappoint.

I think it will be okay, and for Topper fans, I definitely think this current makeup makes WKU both the historical favorite and the most likely to put it all together in 2023 on the field, as well.

As the only current* CUSA program to have ever won a conference football championship, that certainly bodes well for WKU in terms of pure expectation. But also in terms of who is expected to do what, it’s WKU and Liberty presumed alone at the top by a wide margin and then everyone but FIU potentially filling in the middle of the conference. Then there’s the aforementioned FIU presumed to finish dead last.

Overall, when you look for an exciting season, mystery is the best reason to tune in to every game and see what happens. There’s definitely a ton of that in C-USA, and there’s a new opponent to study just about every single week.

*Current as of July 1, 2023