WKU Football: Grading the 20–3 Win Over Old Dominion
Western Kentucky football now has a winning record for the first time since November of 2017 and has matched its win total from last…
Western Kentucky football now has a winning record for the first time since November of 2017 and has matched its win total from last season.
Two of three wins avenged 2018 losses, and WKU (3–2, 3–0 C-USA) sits way atop C-USA standings as the only team with three wins under its belt. Western has a chance to further its lead by simply allowing other teams to lose next week. Most of the conference face each other, but WKU draws Army in what is really a low-pressure game at home.
WKU absolutely dominated Old Dominion Saturday. Although 20–3 is not overly impressive, the Hilltoppers had more opportunities than their offensive scoring output suggested. It could have easily been a five score game.
That being said, let’s look at how the Tops graded out, starting with my Keys to Victory.
Keys to Victory
Don’t Screw Up: D
First of all, breaking down this game, I felt ODU was a great match-up for WKU. I think Charlotte, for example, is a terrible match-up for the Tops. I really felt like Western should have won this game in almost every scenario. However, the reason the score was as close as it was because WKU screwed up just about everything it could. Two first-quarter turnovers probably should have cost WKU more than it did, but the Tops only cost themselves three points somehow. In addition, the Toppers were only 4-of-6 in the red zone (with only two touchdowns), 3-of-10 on third down, had multiple big plays wide open and missed, and only averaged 30.5 yards per punt.
Despite all of the mistakes, WKU won by three scores. Clearly, this did not affect the outcome of the game, but it certainly affected the perception of the score. It also is an indication that WKU could choke at the wrong time and cost itself down the line. If Western gets better from here and quits choking away opportunities, perhaps all of these early season blunders won’t affect anything. If they keep doing it, it will eventually cost them dearly.
Protect the Football: C+
After coughing up the ball on the second and third drives of the game, Western Kentucky was much more protective of the football. WKU did have two other fumbles not recovered by the opposing defense, so this certainly was not a stellar performance. However, give the Tops credit. They could have easily been rattled and multiplied the issue. Instead, they refocused and found a way to keep the ball in their position until fourth down the rest of the game.
Convert in the Red Zone: D
Honestly, I was right on the money with these Keys. All of these affected the score, but WKU was so dominant defensively that it didn’t matter. Western only scored 20 of a possible 42 points in the red zone. You can’t expect them to score a touchdown every time, but touchdowns should be scored more than half of the time. The offense should score on all but maybe one red zone opportunity every game or two. 27 to 34 points would be a realistic expectation out of six red zone opportunities. WKU did not come close to accomplishing its goals here. 1/3 of the time, WKU finished in the end zone. In addition, Western missed two fields goals, coming away with nothing. Not good at all.
Crush the Quarterback: A
The only knock here is the fact the Tops only got three sacks. ODU was giving up about four per game. However, WKU’s defensive line was fantastic, keeping Stone Smartt in the negative total yardage rushing, and hitting him several times. In addition to three sacks (all by DeAngelo Malone), WKU had three other tackles-for-loss and seven quarterback hits. So just because WKU did not actually get there more than a few times, WKU was up in his face all night. Think of it this way: ODU had 59 plays. On 10 of the 59 plays, Smartt ended up on his back on a pass play one way or another.
Contain the Passing Game: A+
WKU’s defensive performance was incredible. The Tops only allowed 108 yards through the air. Smartt looked slow and uncomfortable all night. He was scared to keep it, but he was also scared to release it at times. One play went for more than 16 yards, and no receiver had more than three catches. Again, coming into the game, Kesean Strong was a concern out of the backfield, but he only had three catches for 28 yards. Job well done, Tops.
Win the Coaching Battle: A
Old Dominion Head Coach Bobby Wilder is a seasoned veteran. He knows exactly what he’s doing out there and what he believes in. His team plays some great team defense. After the first few drives, WKU was looking abysmal and inefficient. However, Tyson Helton continued to put his team in position. Now, did they execute? No. Joshua Simon should have had two touchdowns instead of one, for example.
On a brilliant play call and design, Storey (presumably) has the option to read the defense and run it in or throw the football to what is usually a wide-open tight end on a jump pass. He completely overthrew him, but that was not on Helton at all. Helton also guided his team in a tight game with consistent scoreboard pressure. By the middle of the fourth quarter, ODU was so battered and beaten down that they couldn’t even muster resistance in either direction. WKU had its way after the Joshua Simon touchdown reception in the middle of the fourth quarter. Helton continues to do a great job navigating a borderline deficient offense and producing enough to win games. Throw in Clayton White’s performance and this was a great performance.
Individual Position Grades
Quarterback: B-
Ty Storey is now through his second start, and although he is not going to throw for 5,000 yards this season by any stretch, he is proving to be just a little better decision maker and a little bit more accurate than Steven Duncan. He has not set the world on fire, but he completed 75 percent of his passes this game. WKU had balance, able to both run and pass the ball. Storey’s age and experience show in crucial moments. Storey could be better without question. Joshua Simon was truly wide open in the end zone. Quin Jernighan was wide open on an out route. He is not perfection, and he threw an absolutely boneheaded interception that allowed ODU a drive starting in the red zone. However, he has led the Tops to two wins against two good defenses. Give him a little bit of credit.
Running Back: B
Again, Gaej Walker is the beginning and end of WKU’s running game. WKU sincerely has to find someone, anyone, at all, to run the football besides Walker. Walker was great, with the exception of his first-quarter fumble, which directly resulted in ODU’s lone three points of the night. He amassed 114 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries. He’s been awesome most of the year. However, ding the overall position grade for literally not having a backup that can be trusted with more than one carry in the last three games. He either must single-handedly carry the running game without fail the rest of the season, or there has to be some help coming from somewhere.
Wide Receiver: C
The wide receivers were pretty average against ODU. Jahcour Pearson continues to contribute fairly consistently. Quin Jernighan made an appearance, but frankly, with this unit, I still believe Lucky Jackson is the key to the greatness of this group. Lucky only had four catches for 20 yards in this game and is flirting with a career-low pace through five games. The redshirt senior has been at or near the team lead his entire career. He is well behind Pearson thus far. I will say Lucky had a really nice hustle play, recovering a bizarre fumble by Storey. Nonetheless, the only missing piece to a really good unit is another consistent receiver in addition to Pearson. Somebody needs to step up and produce 50 yards every game, and this offense would take on a more explosive tendency.
Tight End: B+
Again, the tight ends contribute. Sure, the stat line is not flashy, but Kyle Fourtenbary and Joshua Simon are generally good for a catch or two a game apiece. What more can you ask for from a tight end group? A tight end touchdown is actually more reliable than a receiver one at this point in the season for WKU. The two productive players combine for five touchdowns, while only Jahcour Pearson’s three touchdowns join them to complete the list of WKU’s eight receiving touchdowns. Simon continues his incredible season, pulling in his fourth score and only eighth catch.
Offensive Line: A
I’m not really sure what there is to complain about with the offensive line this game. It was clear in the second half that WKU’s offensive line was really starting wear down ODU’s front. WKU’s front five helped Gaej Walker get back to his 100-yard ways and only gave up one sack. They also helped Ty Storey to throw for 75 percent in a slugfest, and really had nothing to do with the two turnovers committed by the Tops. Only three plays went for negative yardage, and of the four penalties called on WKU, only one was on the offense, and none were on the line. All in all, a near-perfect game for the offensive line.
Defensive Line: A
DeAngelo Malone continues his streak of impressive games. He has been a presence in every game, and this may have been his best. He collected three sacks, another TFL, and three more quarterback hits. His counterparts were more modest in production, so I can’t give the group a perfect grade. However, a stat line of six QB hits, three sacks, 4.5 TFL, and 16 tackles is not bad for sure. The defensive line certainly played its part in the defense’s success, only allowing 55 on the ground and 105 through the air.
Linebackers: A+
The linebackers showed up and produced against a team that challenges linebackers with a mobile quarterback. Kyle Bailey was very present, and without question, the defensive surprise of the game, Damon Lowe (who got ejected for targeting), tied Malone for the most tackles on the team. This is a good omen for the upcoming game against Army. WKU needs present and productive linebackers in that game.
Defensive Backs: A+
The back end of the defense has been rock solid the past few games. They are now producing takeaways, which creates more margin for a defense. Without turnovers, the defense is forced to just stop offenses straight up. Sometimes that’s an extremely difficult task. Not a lot of tackles came from this group, but a good chunk of pass break-ups as well as just finding a way to keep ODU’s receivers at bay made this a great effort, only allowing one big pass play all night (29 yards).
Kicking: C-
Yes, Munson made two chip shots, but he also missed two solid chances, as well. All in all, this was not his best performance in the kicking game.
Punting: D
If there were more than two punts, this would be an F. However, John Haggerty did not have a good night regardless. His first punt was from inside ODU’s territory, and he still only punted to the 12-yard line. Not bad, but the goal is inside the 10 there. The other was a shank. For Haggerty’s talent level, his performance was a disaster. Pretty sure he should bounce back, though.
Kickoffs: A+
4-for-4 on touchbacks is all you could ever ask for. That’s exactly what the doctor ordered. Credit to Munson for not letting his kicking get in the way of his kickoffs.
Decision Making and Execution
Offensive Coaching: A
I take no issue with any offensive decisions or play calls in this game. Unlike last year, there has really been almost nothing to complain about in terms of play-calling or silly decisions. There were a couple of stretches in the Louisville game that I disagreed with, but other than that, through five games, I have virtually nothing. There are two plays that stick out for me that show the play calling was not the issue with offensive execution:
One was the Joshua Simon jump pass. Joshua Simon is wide open and Storey does the Tebow but basically throws Simon out of the back of the end zone for an incompletion. Simon was probably at least five yards from anyone else. That’s an awesome play call but terrible execution. Also, Quin Jernighan runs an out and is wide open early in the game and Storey overthrows him. Jernighan had at least 15 yards guaranteed and may have run for a while after the catch. That’s two plays that could’ve resulted in at least one more touchdown and at least 20 more yards of offense. This offense is very close to busting open and having a big-time game.
Defensive Coaching: A+
Can any more be said about Clayton White? That man has put together three masterful conference performances. I can’t wait to see what he does against Army. Facing a military academy is no better test because it’s a game you could probably win if your players “get it” within the week you usually have to prepare. If they don’t, they’re all confused and get gashed for huge amounts of yardage. Coaching plays a huge factor against an option attack.
Quarterback Decision Making: B-
With the exception of the first quarter, Storey was fine in this department. Were there a few times he got a little bit lucky on some decisions? Yes. But be fair: As a general comparison, he is more steady than Steven Duncan. Heck, the guy threw for 75 percent. He can’t have done all that bad.
Offensive Execution: D-
I mean, honestly, I’m being generous here. WKU left tons of points out there Saturday. 22 points were available in the red zone to start with. Two turnovers only cost three points directly, but definitely squandered the entire first quarter. Missing a couple of wide-open receivers cost a good 25–50 yards and at least one touchdown. WKU moved the ball for at least one first down on all but three possessions, yet came away with 20 points. Fumbling nearly out of field goal range late in the second quarter. Two missed field goals. 30 percent on third down. The opponent had nearly 100 penalty yards and still, all of these things happened. I could go on, but the point is made: WKU was not efficient and executed just enough to win comfortably. But everything they could do to squander offensively, they did.
Overall Grade: B+
First of all, a win is a win, and this is a big-time win. It was also a blowout, so let’s not be too harsh. However, in terms of the actual potential, WKU far underachieved, despite clearly displaying its superiority to ODU. Judging by what happened in the game, WKU did just about all it could situationally to allow ODU to stick around.
Nonetheless, WKU’s defense was so good, and its offense good enough, WKU was basically not losing that game nine of ten times, mainly because of ODU’s inability to score offensively. But the ODU defense is quite good, and WKU overcame that, too.
Ding the Tops a little bit for a lack of execution, but this was an incredible win for the confidence, and ultimately, it sets up WKU in the driver’s seat with the ability to mess up and still win the East Division. In other words, WKU could lose to Charlotte, Marshall, or USM and still likely win the division at 7–1. That’s also assuming MTSU and FAU never lose, including against each other (MTSU is at FAU Saturday).
This win was huge for so many reasons, but if Western Kentucky finishes 7–1 in the conference now, they will likely be East Champions because of the combination of their wins and the fact each of their competitors currently has no more than one conference win. Everyone has to get to at least seven. Everyone else needs six wins. WKU needs four.
Things are getting interesting in Bowling Green.