WKU Football: Grading the 38–21 Loss to Louisville
After riding high on a nice win against what is supposed to be a pretty good FIU team, WKU came back to Earth, succumbing to a much more…
After riding high on a nice win against what is supposed to be a pretty good FIU team, WKU came back to Earth, succumbing to a much more powerful Louisville Cardinals team.
Remarkably, WKU left Nashville disappointed, despite only losing by 17 to a Power Five opponent that may flirt with a bowl bid this season.
Western’s performance was littered with little mistakes. Despite being thoroughly dominated in the trenches, WKU had chances to get back in the game and just never made it happen.
Let’s dig into what happened Saturday with some game grades. Sorry for the delay but it’s a bye week and we all need a breather. Anyway here we go
Grading the Keys to Victory
Make Jawon Pass…Pass: B
First of all, Jawon Pass didn’t play. However, his clone in Malik Cunningham did. Last year, Cunningham ran roughshod over the Tops. Before Cunningham was injured, he ran for a net of 46 yards on 16 carries and passed for only 119 yards. Honestly, WKU forced Louisville to pass, but WKU’s secondary, which we already know is struggling so far this season, gave up several massive plays to Tutu Atwell that were the difference.
Western did not truly force U of L to pass the ball, however. Despite holding Louisville’s ground game to no rushing gain of more than 20 yards, Louisville’s offensive line continued to blowback WKU’s defensive line, ultimately allowing Louisville to run the ball, not quite at will, but they certainly still had plenty of success. All in all, WKU did a decent job against a really, really good running game, forcing the quarterback to make plays in the passing game, which both quarterbacks certainly did.
WKU Defensive Line Must Hold Its Own Against the U of L D-Line: B+
You know what? I started writing this grade up as lower, but when you look at the stats, WKU was even or ahead of Louisville in each of the key categories related to the defensive line. WKU led 3-1 in sacks, was even in tackles for loss, led 4–3 in quarterback hits, and neither team allowed more than a 20-yard run (Louisville did not allow more than a nine-yard gain on the ground). That is pretty dang even, and for WKU’s offensive line to hold the U of L line to only one sack, that is magnificent. Consider the fact that they were averaging four sacks per game, and this is an awesome effort.
This is not an A, because frankly, the actual feel of the game was much more of a trend for Louisville. Western absolutely could not run the ball. Louisville had some nice gains, but WKU was able to bottle them up and keep them from massive charges down the field in the running game.
Win the Turnover Battle: D+
Here is the story of WKU’s year so far: Steven Duncan produces yards and leads the offense to a decent amount of yardage, but Steven Duncan also turns the ball over. This game, Lucky Jackson joined the party, fumbling the ball on a completed pass from the aforementioned Duncan. That was not Duncan’s fault, but big picture, Duncan has produced five turnovers and only combined for six touchdowns (five passing, one rushing). Duncan didn’t throw an interception at least which was promising.
With news that Duncan has succumbed to a foot injury that will likely sideline him for several weeks, perhaps Ty Storey or Davis Shanley will step up and manage the game a little better. If Duncan would have protected the ball a few more times, WKU could be as good as 3–0 at this point. The only positive was that WKU’s defense actually forced a turnover. Bout time!
Try to Slow Down the Run: B-
Honestly, giving up over 200 yards to Louisville is not an embarrassment. However, WKU could not really stop U of L. WKU’s tackling was pretty sound, not allowing a run longer than 20 all game. That is really the only reason this grade is that high. You have to respect the fact WKU made them earn their big plays through the air. If anyone was forecasting the game, a Louisville win would surely entail a couple of busted runs. That was not the case. WKU was sound but simply outmatched Saturday. No shame in that, but ultimately if the goal is to slow it down and their line blows you back several yards most plays, that’s not slowing it down as much as necessary.
Give Gaej Walker Some Help: F
Gaej Walker didn’t give Gaej Walker some help. In all seriousness, 43 yards?!? There’s no question Louisville accomplished its goal: Stop the run. Walker was decent for how much they crowded him the entire game. Here’s the problem: KeShawn McClendon (2 carries, 15 yards) was the only other person on the team with positive rushing yards. He was great for the handful of plays he was in. However, That’s hideous assistance.
This is the first time I’m having issues with Helton’s decision making. First off, why is Joshua Samuel getting crucial minutes in the fourth quarter, but not seeing the field until that time? That has now happened in both losses. Why is he not seeing the field? Five of his last games, he had 80 yards. He has three measly yards in three games. Why trot him out cold for big plays? Second, why is McClendon not seeing the field more? He’s big and stocky and could be a good, different complement to Walker, especially with Jakairi Moses out for the season. This was your difference in the game. Find a consistent running game in addition to your awesome running back that is running his butt off for you week in and week out.
Individual Position Game Grades
Quarterback: D
Listen, it turns out he was injured, but ultimately, you throw nearly 50 passes and completed barely half in a game the defense is loading the box. You only produce 250 yards, again in a game where you should have one-on-one match-ups and opportunities for some big plays. In addition, once again, Steven Duncan fumbles, and this time loses the possession for the Tops. Duncan threw into double coverage, overthrew his targets on several occasions, and made some frankly awful decisions. He had several guys running loose and did not capitalize.
Tight End: A+
Not going to spend too much time here, but good lord these guys are good. Two of the three scores came from tight ends, one of which was a 77 yard play right down the gut of the defense by the freshman All-American candidate, Josh Simon. If that young man isn’t being talked about by the end of the season, I will personally go into some board rooms and start screaming. He’s amazing.
Offensive Line: B
Listen, one sack is really nice. Again, they’re on pace for eight sacks on the season. That’s really good. Still, they were blasted back quite often, and Duncan didn’t have a pocket to throw out of too often. Seven tackles for loss is more indicative of the day they had, along with less than 300 yards and only 43 rushing yards. It was tough sledding against a really good defensive front that should get well more than 30 sacks this season. WKU kept them to one. That’s awesome, and they should’ve had some help from the skill positions to beef up the production. A solid B but I refuse to give more than that with less than 300 total yards.
Running Back: D+
Gaej Walker had no room. Frankly, he did well enough with other areas of the offense not producing as they should. Take away Simon’s 77-yard reception and add in his 21 yards in the air and Walker had less than 150 yards of help. On the ground, he got exactly two yards of help. On a day Louisville literally tried to destroy him, he still produced over 60 total yards. He can’t do it all, folks. Again, for this team to be great, WKU needs another good running threat or two. Could it be a quarterback? Could it be a running back? Could be in the jet sweep game? I’m fine with whatever, but Walker needs 50 yards a game from someone else and this running game (and offense) would be balanced enough to be effective.
Wide Receiver: C-
I will say this all season if I have to: As Lucky Jackson goes, so does WKU. Lucky dropped a wide open touchdown that would have brought WKU back into the game late in the ball game. He also fumbled on a ball that came straight at him that he caught fairly cleanly. You can’t ask for much more from Duncan on that particular throw. That’s on Lucky. On a positive note, five receivers caught a pass, but none of them produced more than 40 yards. The only thing that makes this performance sort of OK was the fact that the receivers had 21 receptions.
That’s awesome, but averaging less than seven yards a catch is abysmal. They must make big plays, and again, for this team to be great, Lucky needs to be elite, and the receivers need to produce 200 yards per game. This is yet to happen. Therefore, WKU’s offense has been less than average.
Defensive Line: B+
Again, this unit was solid, combining for three sacks, six tackles for loss, and over 30 tackles. That’s excellent. However, they did get pushed backwards some, and the battle up front was still won by Louisville’s offensive line, especially at some crucial moments. There is absolutely no shame in this performance from this group, but you can’t give them an A when they didn’t really, truly, and consistently control the line of scrimmage. They’re a heck of a unit, though.
Linebackers: C+
Kyle Bailey was present and productive once again, and the front six deserves some credit for not giving up more than a 20 yard run against an explosive run game. However, he doesn’t really have consistent help. Malik Staples started, but he had one tackle. Jaden Hunter still continues to play mostly special teams. Most of the production came from the line and the secondary in this game, so solely because of Kyle Bailey, it’s decent. Otherwise, the middle of the defense was invisible.
Secondary: D
With the exception of Devon Key (ten tackles, fumble recovery), the WKU secondary was abysmal. The main issue was getting torched deep on several passes that were the absolute difference in the game. We’re not talking precise passes that were put in the bucket. No, these were wide open receivers running several yards behind the defense. It’s bad, and WKU has to find a solution. Again, if WKU wants to be great, this is another area it must shore up.
Special Teams: C+
For the first time, John Haggerty looked sort of average. Still, he averaged nearly 42 yards per punt. Most NFL punters could live with a day like that, but a shanked punt and another one he did not get a hold of really cost the Tops at some times. Cory Munson was great on kickoffs once again and took care of business on his extra points. In the return game, WKU allowed nearly eight yards per punt return and 27 on its lone kick return allowed. WKU has yet to really bust a long return all season whether it be on the punt or kickoff variety.
Coaching and Execution
Third and Fourth Down Defense: C+
WKU was alright when trying to get off the field (UofL was 4–11 on third down and 1–2 on fourth), but this was something that hurt the Tops. Louisville was better in the big moments, and despite some areas WKU was competitive, crucial moments were missed.
Third and Fourth Down Offense: F
This is something to complain about for the first time under Tyson Helton. His playcalling on third and fourth down was kind of odd, and ultimately, WKU was a combined 5–20 on these two downs. Steven Duncan was asked to run a quarterback draw in no man’s land on 3rd-and-10, which was stuffed. Then WKU is left with what feels like an impossible 4th-and-10, which they did not convert. Steven Duncan also fumbled on a short gain on 3rd-and-4, which was returned by the defense. Not good.
Defensive Coaching Strategy: B
Honestly, I don’t have much issue with Clayton White’s methods in this game. Sure, the secondary got torched, but that seems to be an issue regardless. WKU held Louisville back, but giving up 24 points in the second quarter more than dug a hole for the Tops to try to climb out of. If anything, ding the defense for the second quarter meltdown. Ultimately, the Tops held the Louisville run game in check compared to the Cardinals’ first couple of games.
The big plays in the passing game were crippling, but we all knew deep passes were possible against a WKU defensive secondary that apparently really could use Roger Cray back from injury ASAP. WKU continues to deal with teams running away from and around the defensive line, intentionally avoiding that unit if at all possible. FIU ran jet sweeps. Louisville basically ran a speed option type of play to the outside about ten times. The defensive issues should not be blamed on the coaches. Ultimately, Clayton White has to choose what to concentrate on, because his defense has deficiencies on the second and third level. Get some guys back from injury and get a little farther into the season and maybe this changes to some degree.
Offensive Coaching Strategy: D+
Honestly, this felt like Tyson Helton’s first misstep. First of all, WKU continues to waste timeouts not getting to the line. This happened a ton with Willie Taggart, but that issue was because his plays were literally a sentence long. This is something simple that needs to be fixed. Timeouts are crucial in close games, and WKU has played two of them. This one would have been close if WKU had executed a few opportunities to claw back in the game.
Also, running an injured quarterback on a draw on 3rd-and-10, a false start, and then an impossible situation on 4th-and-15 from the 43 is just mismanagement. Also, why run straight up the middle on 3rd-and-11 on the WKU 45 down 17? That is absolutely mind-blowing to me. Unless the entire offense is injured and just needs to get off the field, why would you squander an opportunity to get another first down or two and possibly kick a field goal at the very least? I think they were trying to surprise Louisville, but you’re basically giving up on that drive and hoping Walker makes a play that would literally have to be the best play of the game on the ground to see success. Run a screen or something if you want to be conservative. Give yourself a chance there!
Overall, I was not pleased with some of the play calling. I didn’t love some of the decision making on third and fourth down. This is truly the first time I think it’s legitimate to question the play calling, but I do believe Tyson Helton will learn from some of these things and be sure he’s not putting his team in the same position. Here’s to this not happening again.
Overall Grade: C+
Listen, WKU lost and had opportunities wasted. Without question, at least 10–14 points was left on the field. Shoring up the back end of the defense would have saved some more. However, look at the end result. WKU got blitzed in the second quarter, but other than that quarter, Western went toe-to-toe with Louisville. WKU lost by 17 to a Power Five that should probably get between four and seven wins. That’s not an utter disaster. The fact that WKU could have actually won this game and didn’t is a sign of a team still trying to completely jell. Once they do, this team still feels like a dangerous squad for anyone left on the schedule.
WKU has some really good units and individual players: The defensive line, offensive line, the kickers, the tight ends, Kyle Bailey, Devon Key, and Gaej Walker. Coco Darden has not been his best, but we know he is quite a capable defensive back, as well. Lucky Jackson has all the potential in the world, but has yet to blossom thus far this season. Despite struggling, he’s still producing at about the rate he did last year. The pieces are there for WKU to put together. Will it happen this year, or will we need to wait a year? Time will tell, but WKU fans should step away from the frustration and feel OK about this performance with a critical bye week to get healthier and improve on weaknesses prior to UAB.