WKU Football: Grading the Hilltoppers at Indiana

WKU was statistically the better team for the most part and most of the game at IU. What the heck happened?

Honestly, I really thought they had it. Game over. But it wasn’t.

Western Kentucky football was about to make history, earning its first victory over a Big Ten school in its ninth attempt. Western was in the red zone flirting with a three-score lead when the Tops decided to make it interesting. Instead of a touchdown, it was a endzone interception that led to a Hoosier touchdown and began the IU comeback in a 33-30 overtime WKU loss.

Let’s be honest: Western was the better team. Look at the stats, watch the game, watch the line of scrimmage, etc. Western controlled its fate the entire way, and even in overtime, the Topper defense almost forced IU out of field goal range simply by being pissed off bullies, an incredible achievement on its own.

Western’s defensive line got way more pressure up front than Indiana’s front seven, without question. WKU produced more chaos defensively. Offensively, Western’s offensive line was incredible, especially given that IU’s line is so good. They controlled the line, and Western’s running backs rushed for nearly 200 yards, something that has rarely happened in the Tyson Helton era.

With the way this went down, naturally, there was a lot of talk about whose fault it was. Clearly Western was better, so who screwed this up? Was it the players? The coaches? What or who was to blame for this loss? I’ve seen the defense blamed. I’ve seen Tyson Helton blamed. Joshua Simon. Kaleb Oliver. Offensive Coordinator Ben Arbuckle. Brayden Narveson. Austin Reed. Who/whatdunnit?

Let’s break it down for you. We’ll check out the Keys to Victory, see how they affected the game, then break it down by position, and then look at the coaching job.

Grading the Keys to Victory

Handle the Big Moments: F

Isn’t that the whole issue with this game? A few times Western made some big plays, like an incredible effort by the defense to force a 51-yard field goal for Indiana to win it when the drive started with a 42-yard attempt pretty much guaranteed. But WKU did just about everything it could to keep Indiana in the game. Without question, the Hilltoppers were absolutely in control of the outcome of that game. Sure, Indiana did what they’ve done for each of their three wins so far: Just enough. WKU fumbled to give Indiana the ball deep inside its own territory, Reed threw a cross-body interception into the end zone, WKU allowed Indiana to score first and really flirted with giving up a two-score lead before Indiana went for it at midfield (handing WKU its first touchdown drive from midfield), several penalties kept the game alive, stalling out with the chance to take a three-score lead, etc. It just felt like everything WKU could do situationally to screw itself, it did. I think everyone can agree that was WKU’s game and they lost nearly all of the important moments.

Special Teams Need to be Pretty Good, at Minimum: C-

I know everyone is going to look at Tom Ellard’s 46 yards per punt and feel great, but again, a 60-yard boom saved his average. His 31-yard punt to start the game allowed Indiana to open the scoring with less than 50 yards of offense and a chip shot. But his punt with his back to the back of the end zone was brilliant, kicking it cleanly to near midfield to give the Tops a chance to stop it. Just color me cautiously concerned with him, but so far, he’s still averaging mid-40s each time out. Going down the list, Corey Munson was much more himself, averaging 63 yards per kickoff and over half touchbacks. Brayden Narveson was fine the first three kicks of the afternoon, but his final two were a miss and a block. That’s the part that really sticks out, unfortunately, as the major blight on the entire special teams unit. In the return game, nothing happened to change the course of the game, which was probably good for the Hilltoppers.

I know everyone is going to think of Narveson’s misses, which are obvious. That’s the main reason for a near-failing grade. However, the only other issue was Ellard’s one short punt. Given the fact that those were longer field goals (44 and 39), it’s more understandable than shanking a couple of short ones. Without question, though, shouldn’t we at least look at Munson to see if he can be more consistent or make the tougher kicks? Narveson is coming off of double hip surgery. It’s understandable if he’s a little less nimble right now. Ebb and flow. Let the results dictate the openness of the competition.

Make Indiana Score: B

I’d say the Tops did a pretty good job for the most part. Indiana was forced to come up with 33 and needed 30 (and a bunch at the end) to send it to overtime. However, Western did not make this a true shootout type of feel, and there was absolutely room for more explosion. Western easily gave away double-digit offensive points. Scoring 40 is a lot different than scoring 30. Western had its chance to force IU to put up 40 and just didn’t do it. Therefore, they technically did what I said they needed to do, but given the circumstances, just taking care of the ball likely eliminates the possibility of Indiana winning the game.

Handle Indiana’s Big Ten Size: A+

Honestly, who was the more talented, more dominant team? Western was the one pushing IU around. Western was better on special teams in everything but the kicking game. Western was the one giving up less sacks and less TFLs. Western’s cornerbacks were the ones minimizing the damage and breaking up the ball more often, something super rare for an “undersized” team. IU was the one that had to come up with the miracles, the more explosive plays. Down-to-down, stat to stat, Western Kentucky won this game. However, Indiana made the more explosive plays while being good enough to survive the rest of the game.

Three Sacks or Less Given Up by the Offensive Line: A+

We pretty much knew Indiana was going to get home a little bit on the Tops. It just is what it is. A really good Power 5 front seven is probably going to produce against anyone. Well, Western absolutely passed the test. First of all, they did indeed give up less than three sacks, giving up two. Also, the way in which they did it was impressive. Western’s run game was amazing in the second half, and the gaps they had to run through were even more amazing. Reed was sacked twice and only got knocked down one other time. WKU got Connor Bazelak three times, hitting him four times. We saw yet another impeccable performance from the offensive line.

Position Grades

Offense

Quarterback: B

Reed was incredible early on against Indiana, and for most of the game, the same thing. There’s no question this guy is contributing at an all-conference caliber level, and he is an absolute positive difference maker for the Tops. It’s nice to see a QB with wheels. He can really contribute on the ground while being a 300-yard passer, which is exceedingly rare on any level.

The Towel Rack @TheTowelRackWKU

Your weekly "hOw ArE yOu GoInG tO rEpLaCe BaIlEy ZaPpE?" update: 3 games in: Reed: 75/108, 880yds, 9 TD, 59 rush yds, 2 rush TD Zappe: 87/119, 1224 yds, 13 TD, 37 rush yds, 1 rush TD First 3 games for both included an FCS opener, road G5 game, Indiana #WKU

Really the only complaint I have about Austin this entire season is about three or four moments per game.

As a QB, you just can’t throw cross-body, you can’t throw into triple coverage down the middle late, and you can’t underthrow into decent coverage, either. He didn’t do the final option in this game that I much remember, but he has a few times in the other two games. He did throw across his body late, and that resulted in the red zone interception. He also threw into triple coverage to Daewood Davis near midfield later in the game and was fortunate that the ball harmlessly fell to the turf. I don’t remember too many stupid decisions, he runs with his eyes up and the man is not afraid to take a hit. He’s a warrior out there and you like to see a gutsy, non-stupid QB out there that usually knows when to bowl somebody over and when to lay off and be smart. For the most part, he’s making good decisions. I believe the red zone mistake should be rectified and not happen very often, but under duress, we all make silly decisions.

Running Back: A+

Given what Western has had since Ace Wales graduated, this was beautiful to see. 188 yards rushing combined is just magnificent. It could still be better, but for this group, there’s no way to give anything but great marks. Davion Ervin-Poindexter actually had a tough game, but he still spelled his teammates, who happened to have the better statistical games. Perhaps Kye Robichaux is RB1 at FIU? (ed. note - Please, Helton. Reward the man! Signed, Robichaux’s #1 fan) Surely to Pete, he’s earned a start. He’s certainly been the most consistent back of the three (DEP, Robichaux, Jakairi Moses). Imagine if these guys could’ve gotten going in the first half. Western only had 33 yards rushing in the first half, mushrooming to over 200 by game’s end.

Wide Receiver: B

You’ve got to like the balance and depth, but the pass interference on the goal line really drags this entire grade down. That’s a four-point swing from a beautiful touchdown drive to somewhat of a letdown of a field goal. Also, I believe the Tops either need Malachi Corley or Davis to be the guy, both need to produce a little more, or the Tops need a little more from the supporting cast. This game was good, but going forward, the Tops need three consistent threats or a freakshow that catches everything every game.

Tight End: C+

Man, another nice game for the tight ends, but Simon’s fumble that set up Indiana was just too much of a mistake. It handed IU three points, which would end up being crucial. Good job by the D for forcing a three-and-out and a made field goal, but Simon certainly put the Tops in a world of hurt. And please, let me say this, as well: It wasn’t really his fault. The man catches it, tucks it, and the IU player makes a brilliant, textbook strip while trapping Simon’s other arm from regathering the football. That’s just a really good football play, honestly. But it was such a huge mistake that you’ve got to ding the group pretty hard. All told, three guys (Simon, Joey Beljan and Dalvin Smith) all got in on the action, and Beljan scored on a wide-open touchdown pass down the field, something he didn’t do last season. It’s unfortunate to have that one mistake, because otherwise, this was exactly what you wanted from this group.

Offensive Line: A

The only reason this wasn’t perfect was the Gunner Britton block in the back penalty that called back a touchdown. Yes, it was ticky-tack, but by the letter of the rulebook, it was a block in the back and I think considering the defender touched the runner’s leg, it’s reasonable to say it was an impactful block. That’s one of those you just can’t do. If the guy’s got his back to you, you can’t block him. The first down was already made. Worst case scenario, the drive continues after a 10-15 yard play. Everything else from the offensive line was incredible. I just wanted to give them major love for their performance. They absolutely controlled Indiana the entire game, leaving gaping holes in the running game, allowing Austin Reed time to look around and survey the field, and they stayed out of trouble for the most part except for the Britton penalties (false start).

Defense

Defensive Line: A-

I continue to be blown away by the presence of WKU’s lines. I think Western’s D-Line is easily better overall than last season. Juwuan Jones is more present, Jaques Evans is a revelation, and Brodric Martin was healthy for the first time this game, recording six tackles, a half a sack, and a QB Hit. Other units did record sacks, but the work was done throughout the game by the men up front. Unlike last year, when the line of scrimmage was clearly won by each offensive line, WKU dominated the trenches on both sides of the ball for 90 percent of the game. And the defensive stand at the end…my goodness! They did everything they could. That’s what championship-level teams can do. They forced IU to make a great play, needing a 51-yard field when they should have been kicking from inside the 25.

Linebackers: B+

There were definitely some missed tackles from this group, as well as some of the explosive plays were allowed to be explosive because of linebackers. But overall, I believe most of the explosive plays were mostly the responsibility of the secondary. Also, Derrick Smith, Will Ignont, and Jaden Hunter were all significant contributors in this game.

Defensive Backs: C+

First of all, huge credit should go to this unit for hanging in with some huge receivers. This team was more than capable of hanging with the Power 5 behemoths. There’s your huge positive for this group. Penalties really plagued this group, accounting for the majority of the penalties and especially costing the Tops at inopportune times. I took some flack on Twitter for criticizing Kaleb Oliver, who committed three penalties within a couple of minutes, and that’s fine. Disagree with this point if you want, but when you have already committed two personal fouls, one of which has been currently called targeting at the time you commit your third, you do not want to get your third because you’re upset and you push an opposing player. My stance is that you have to have self-control and self-awareness and realize you are possibly about to cost your team 45 yards on the same drive if the refs weren’t merciful, calling a personal foul on Indiana, which negated the previous infractions. Oliver was allowed to play, ruled that his hit wasn’t targeting, and he ended up recording seven tackles. Good for him for calming down and making some plays. WKU’s other DBs were present, batting balls, and making life difficult. DB B.J. Wagner contributed WKU’s lone forced turnover, recovering Bazelak’s fumble in the second quarter.

Overall, the DBs were very good down to down, but penalties and big plays plagued the Tops intermittently throughout the game, sometimes all in a row. Unfortunately, when it’s all added up, there’s no question it had a negative impact on the game for WKU.

Special Teams: C+

See our grade in the Keys section for a refresher.

Coaching Overall: C-

Before we get into specifics, this was definitely one of the more dicey, questionable performances by the coaching staff under Tyson Helton in terms of just about everything. Helton certainly turned some heads with two timeout calls, as well as the offense getting especially conservative in the red zone. Also, for the third game in a row, WKU’s penalty numbers were dangerously close to topping 100 yards. At some point, it’s time for the coaches to reign in the extra stuff and get this team to play cleaner football.

Head Coaching: D

I’ll be honest: Helton is not a bad coach. I believe he usually makes decisions with pretty good logic, and I think he did in this game, too. However, in a game where the team clearly underachieved, someone has to be blamed unless there was another obvious culprit. There were plenty of reasons in this game to at least question Tyson Helton’s decision-making. Perhaps the most egregious would be two timeouts on a two-point conversion. At the time, I was thinking, “Hey, let’s make sure we stop them.” In hindsight, the problem is, you didn’t, and even if Indiana did get the two-point conversion, you’re not losing because of that two-point conversion. You went to overtime because of it and lost then, but that was not the deciding moment. Take one timeout if you want, but you can’t burn two on a two-point conversion that doesn’t end the game. Indiana was leaving nearly a minute on the clock for the Tops to go down and try to score. Even without the two timeouts, Western still managed to get well into field goal range.

And then I saw a few people question why the Tops would play positioning with 20 seconds left and clock the ball and kick a longer field goal. That’s a fair question. I think you get under 20 seconds and you’re asking for the disaster of not even attempting the field goal because the clock runs out. Whatever the case, there was a lot of room to question what happened late in the game.

Throw in very conservative play calling once the Tops got into the red zone in the second half. Now, was that all Ben Arbuckle making those calls? Maybe, but that’s also a team effort there and the head coach is in on every play call, even if he’s not focused on the call sheet. A lot of people complained about the Reed QB draw up the middle on third down. It’s funny, when it worked on 3rd and 10 in the middle of the field, we didn’t complain. Also, Reed tripped on a defender’s hand or that might have been a touchdown. He lost his balance and came up two yards short. It’s still a valid question. What if you just threw a more conventional “two-point conversion” type of play, or you pulled out two tight ends and ran your tunnel action to Joey Beljan with an option to Simon across the weak side? Something like that would’ve been nice to see on a 3rd and 5.

Helton’s second biggest in-game decision blunder came on Moses’ first carry, putting him in with the Hilltoppers standing in shotgun in their own end zone. I’m sure it was his time to be in the rotation, but sweet lord! That was ignorant and almost cost a safety. Again, I think stone-cold blaming Tyson Helton for the loss is a bit harsh, but there was definitely way more in this game to question than the rest of his era combined. Throw in the lack of discipline on top of it, and he deserves a low grade given his normal level of excellence. I refuse to give him an F, although some may call for it. He made all of the right decisions in terms of going for it and not, etc. Question the guy all you want for being conservative in the red zone. Acknowledge this wasn’t his best. But the guy’s a heck of a coach and still, in my opinion, did not make any definitive, “ding dong” type of mistakes.

Offensive Coaching: C+

For the most part, let’s not be ridiculous. But between the 20s, there was a marked difference between what they were doing once they got inside the red zone. Also, I saw a couple of posts and tweets about the jump pass that sailed 10 yards over Simon’s head. Valid point. That looked weird, but thankfully Reed didn’t try to squeeze it in, because he was well covered. I already mentioned Moses being asked to lead the Tops out of a 98-yard hole on his first snap of the game. That was tough, and that’s definitely a “whoopsies” in hindsight. I think that whole sequence on that drive was poor. Western did almost nothing to provide Tom Ellard with some room. Each play call lacked confidence. Also, besides the red zone puckering, how about that atrocious overtime possession? What happened there? Not a big fan of whatever that was. Other than that, keep perspective folks. Western generated 545 yards of offense against a Big Ten defense with All-American/All-Conference-ish players at each level.

Defensive Coaching: B+

There wasn’t much to complain about defensively. I think people got very wound up about the yards surrendered. Do you realize both teams got off over 80 plays? Indiana ran 90 plays. Both teams ran a combined 171 plays, meaning nearly every 20 seconds, someone was snapping the ball. For perspective, WKU’s two previous opponents snapped the ball an average of about 70 plays. Because of the pace of the game, IU snapped it 90 times. You’re going to have more yardage when you have more overall plays. Don’t let statistics rule everything. How did it feel? Western did a good job in certain moments of imposing its will. The defense was well in control of what happened in general Saturday. Can the defense still get better? Yes. Did they give up big plays? Yes. But they’re still hampered by injury to key players in the back end (especially A.J. Brathwaite) and they’re absolutely holding their own and making life difficult for opposing offenses to march the entire length of the field.

Overall: B+

Let’s all keep perspective. That loss was frustrating as crap. I’m frustrated. You’re frustrated. Multiple people are talking about how that was “the most frustrating loss since ______”. But here’s the thing: Western just screwed up to barely lose to a Big Ten team that looks like they’d have a shot at a division crown, if they weren’t in the same division as Michigan and Ohio State. They’re currently 3-0 and already have a Big Ten win. They’re talented up front, and they have an All-American candidate in the back end of the defense. If they’re healthy up front offensively, they’re very solid there. They’re also battle tested and have won three close games. If they can be good and healthy enough talent-wise in the Big Ten to hang in some games, they’ll likely win a couple more games.

Western is 2-1 after playing a Power 5, a G5 on the road, and an FCS team. Just like last year, it was the same strength of schedule, essentially. Last year, Western was 1-2, had no run game, and we knew the defense was going to struggle all season. This year, Western has a winning record, can definitely run the ball, and definitely has a defense that can produce a three-and-out every once in a while. Positions groups like tight end and linebacker are tangibly better. The running backs have grown up and Davion Ervin-Poindexter is a really, really nice addition that solidifies a three-man rotation with versatility. Even the defensive line seems to be way more disruptive as a group than DeAngelo Malone and a group of people that occasionally benefit largely because of DeAngelo Malone.

Is WKU the most balanced team in all of Conference USA?

Western has absolutely gone from a historically good offense in 2021 with a poor defense to a 2022 version that has very little weakness position by position. Is WKU as strong in every position as last year? No. For example, quarterback and receiver are definitely not as explosive. So what? They’re still solid. Football is so much more about not having weaknesses than having immense strength at one position. With 11 players seeing the field each play, there’s more chance to cover the holes. But if there’s an obvious hole on every play, that hole can be taken advantage of.

Heading into conference play, Western should feel a combination of supremely confident and pissed off. They let one get away. Dadgumit, that was our chance to make a statement, but by God, FIU better get ready for a determined team coming back to Bowling Green Saturday. I’d be shocked if WKU isn’t locked in preparing for some epic matchups down the road.

FIU is one game. UTSA. UAB. Whoever. They’re all one game. The great thing is that WKU has to feel like it can beat anybody left on the schedule.

It’s completely up to them almost every time out. Very few teams could play their best and beat WKU if it also played its very best. That’s a nice luxury to have, but the Tops still have to get out there and do it.

Be encouraged. And for Pete’s sake, support the Tops and go to the FIU game. They deserve it, and dare I say they might be better than last year’s team? We think they just might be.