WKU Football: Grading the Tops vs. Troy
Some final thoughts on Troy before the next game
Well, drat!
The Tops lose in a close one to Troy 34-27. It’s funny how when the Tops lose, it’s an embarrassment, it’s all on the coaches, and it’s a shame that someone couldn’t do their job.
Well, sometimes ya just lose, folks. I’m not saying there wasn’t some blame to go around, and trust me, it’s not lost on us at Towel Rack and certainly not me personally that once-a-freaking-gain the Tops draw a big crowd and pee down their leg. The crowd was finally engaged, was finally a factor, and the Tops lose. That’s frustrating. There’s no telling how many casual fans lose faith because they saw the team lose instead of win.
Big picture, though, wasn’t this the one to lose?
You already started out conference at 1-0. You have an opportunity to measure yourself against a very similar opponent, you screw up, you probably were feeling high from winning 73-0, and you just came out flat and probably needed this wake up call to get fully in gear.
Ultimately, no harm, no foul, you still have a good record, and you’re absolutely not hurting in any way, except that just physically hurt and sucked to lose a tight battle. Sure, the top end of the season is pretty much out in terms of New Years Six. Western legitimately had a chance at winning out and could have competed for a spot in one of the top six bowl games. However, isn’t that kind of a pipe dream, anyway? Of course you dream of that prospect yearly, and most years, you get slapped upside the head and realize it probably isn’t going to happen. That’s reality.
But WKU’s realistic goals are still completely in front of them. How many of you legitimately thought WKU would be likely to win more games than last year? I said 8-6 with a bowl game included, possibly losing the bowl game. That was my preseason prediction. As soon as this team showed how good it was, expectations went from, “Let’s get to a bowl game” to, “We better win C-USA or bust!” really quickly.
Now WKU is a coin flip on the road at UTSA, a game they would probably have been expected to lose by most preseason. Now UTSA is favored by less than a touchdown at home, meaning the atmosphere (a legitimate concern) is tipping the expectations toward UTSA. Otherwise, this game is considered dead even.
Before we get too far ahead and move on to UTSA, let’s look at what happened against Troy. I prefaced all of this with positive talk, because why? First of all, calm down. This is not the end of the world. No one needs to be fired. Second, there were plenty of positive to pull out of this loss. Just because WKU lost doesn’t mean good things didn’t happen.
That being said, let’s hop in to grading the Tops vs. Troy, starting with my Keys to Victory
Grading the Keys to Victory
Win the Turnover Battle: D-
It wasn’t a complete obliteration by Troy in this area, but WKU lost the battle. The goal here was to win it. You normally win it. You rely on turnovers as part of your formula. Your defense is not as strong without explosive plays. WKU should have won this outright. Instead, they fumbled twice, lost it once, and threw another interception. The fumble virtually ended the game. It certainly ended what felt like an epic game-tying drive and crippled the Tops chances. I grade this D- because the Tops flat out failed, but they didn’t fail this task miserably. It’s not like Austin Reed threw four interceptions, although…he did have several other plays that he threw the ball up for grabs.
Red Zone Execution: C+
It’s funny, because basically these two teams traded statistical traits for this one game. WKU’s defense doesn’t generally allow teams in the red zone, but Troy made it five times and scored every time. WKU only made it three times, scoring on all three trips. WKU can usually run the ball fairly well, and Troy gets less than 70 yards per game on the ground. I think WKU’s inability to control the line of scrimmage made it hard defensively and offensively to be as effective stopping drives down deep and converting opportunities. So yeah, red zone didn’t play the biggest factor, but the results are certainly indicative of why WKU lost the game. WKU allowed Troy to get there defensively and WKU didn’t get far enough downfield offensively to threaten the red zone often enough.
Shut Down T.J. Jackson and Richard Jibunor: F
What did I say about these guys? They don’t do much but make big plays every once in a while. Yeah that’s exactly what they did. Both had at least one sack and each had a 1.5 TFL. Jibunor added two PBU and a forced fumble. Jibunor also had the game winning strip. That’s an absolutely fail if I ever saw one. Not only did these guys do exactly what they normally do, but they did extra, forcing turnovers and tipping passes. WKU’s O-Line could not handle these guys, nor could they handle Troy’s system of pressure. One thing about playing a weird system like Troy does is it really is hard to figure out who’s doing what.
Stifle the Run, Blitz the Pass: D+
Well, the Tops certainly didn’t stop the run, allowing a team that averaged less than 70 yards per game on the ground to more than double that against a defense that had shown capability to stop the run, and even at worst moments, the Tops have been able to contain the run. On the other side of the coin, WKU was able to get some pressure, recording four sacks. However, what about the rest of the defense? Because WKU couldn’t get enough pressure, the Tops had to get really creative in the blitz game to get home. It’s fun to see Khalef Hailassee, who is a very talented blitzer, knock down the quarterback. But when you have to take those risks more often, sending him means you’re exposing your secondary. Let’s give a little love but not too much on the blitz side of things. The Tops did get some pressure, but they had to send plenty of guys to get home.
Attack the Middle of the Field: F
I know the tight ends got some looks (six total catches between Simon and Dalvin Smith and Smith dropped another catch on a nice play by the defensive back), but Troy clogged the middle of the field, much like Austin Peay did. WKU had trouble in that game throwing long passes, and the Tops struggled in this one, too. I strongly feel like running Austin Reed a few more times would have been a good move. There were running lanes in there. I understand he’s a commodity, but he’s also a gifted runner that can really make plays with his legs. I don’t feel like WKU was creative enough, whether it was running the ball, using tight ends, or using the quarterback to stretch apart the middle of the defense. I thought this was key, and with an All-American caliber linebacker, confusing the middle of the field is extremely important.
Position Grades
Overall Offense: D
Given the fact that WKU’s offense didn’t score 30 for the first time in 30 games, this is probably a generous score. I would guess maybe the Tops themselves feel like it was a pretty significant failure. I give them a D overall just because there were plenty of positives (passing yardage, third down conversions, wide receiver production, gave the team a chance to tie late in the game, executed one of two clutch drives and nearly marched down for the second) to go with the obvious That defense was awesome. They stifled the Tops and forced WKU to nickel and dime down the field all night, ultimately starving the Tops out due to an inability to produce chunk plays along with forcing two crucial turnovers.
Quarterback: C+
Although Austin Reed threw a ton and passed for a lot of yardage, I think he was not at his best. I think Troy had a lot to do with that, but several times, he was nearly intercepted. He was intercepted once, and he gave up the game sealing turnover. You can’t get high grades with that. However, the sheer volume of yards and relative accuracy with what he was given gives him a decent grade but not stellar.
Running Back: D+
Kye Robichaux was good enough with the number of carries he received. He also added 15 yards for a total of 65 yards from scrimmage. However, everyone else was non-existent. Davion Ervin-Poindexter ran six times for eight yards. Jakairi Moses hardly played! Why not? Has he lost the battle in practice? Maybe? What about L.T. Sanders from last week? Should he have gotten a shot? WKU just simply fell in love with the pass and didn’t run the ball very much. Throwing 57 passes is a dangerous game, and it kept the Tops from possibly controlling the clock a little more and imposing their will upon Troy.
Wide Receiver: B
Western’s receivers certainly produced, and Michael Mathison has absolutely established himself as WR3. Daewood Davis was his usual great self, making big plays and getting way above 100 yards receiving. But the only thing within the receiving corps was a major concern is Malachi Corley. Corley has been your go-to playmaker this season, racking up several amazing touchdown catches. If I’m picking a concern here, why would Corley not get the ball more? Again, they clogged the middle and it worked, but again, adjust and figure out a way to get the ball to your playmakers.
Tight End: B-
It didn’t seem like it, but the tight ends did produce six receptions on the day. Unfortunately, none of those receptions were impactful with the exception of a Josh Simon touchdown. I give the tight ends a decent grade, but I believe they should have been more involved in the game plan, and that’s more on those in charge than these guys. I believe the middle of the field was really important, and I believe going after some tight end seams or some stick routes or something would have really helped. The other thing I would have gone after was running the ball with backs and the quarterback. If Troy uses a “bandit” to the boundary, a linebacker/lineman/safety hybrid, doesn’t that mean there’s an open spot towards the middle of the field? Do the math. Troy did a good job making it feel like there wasn’t room, but the only way to open it up is force your way in there. Then the outside would have opened up.
Offensive Line: D-
Unfortunately, this was far and away the offensive line’s worst performance of the young season. WKU goes from three total sacks to eight after this one. Nine tackles for loss, five sacks, and lots of lost yardage along with losing the turnover battle and some passes batted down, Troy for the most part firmly controlled the line of scrimmage. Also, let’s not forget the penalties. My god, the penalties. I don’t remember a group with so many false starts, and that is something they have struggled with all season. That’s a huge reason why WKU struggles on third down despite being a potent offense. Penalties put the Tops behind the sticks often. Hopefully, this was the lone nightmare of the season for the O-Line and we move on. But they have to have about as low of a score as possible. The only reason I don’t give a pure F is because of the quality before them. Troy’s front is legit, and they were very impressive, continuously bothering Austin Reed and company.
Overall Defense: C+
Ultimately, the defense was not really why WKU lost this game. The defensive line was not effective. down in and down out. However, the Tops held a very good offense to 415 yards, a respectable (but not great) number, they produced four sacks, they held Troy under its normal passing number, they knocked out the starter. They kept WKU in the game. They probably could have been better, but let me ask you this: How many points would last year’s team have given up on Troy five games into the season? I shudder to think. Considering this defense gave up 5-for-5 in the red zone, Troy didn’t have many other chances to score. They just scored when they got close, unfortunately.
I think Troy was brilliant with their game plan on both sides of the ball, really making cerebral choices. They got the Tops thinking they were going to run drag routes all game, and just when WKU thought they would do drag routes, they started running receivers up the seam for big yards. There were several times where Troy just made a brilliant play call. Golf clap to them. I say the defense was decent this game. Could’ve been way better. But this was an ok performance against a pretty good offense. You hate to see a team run effectively that normally doesn’t, but it was just a bad matchup for the Tops, and I think WKU’s current defensive line rotation got exposed a little bit.
Defensive Line: D-
I won’t give them a complete “F”, because they did get some pressure at times. They did make plays at the end to allow WKU to nearly tie it from down 14. But this now raises alarm bells for me about the D-Line. Let me explain: Troy’s O-line had already given up 12 sacks, and Troy has not been able to run the ball effectively at all this year. All of a sudden a WKU D-Line that has dominated gives up 135 rushing yards and can’t get consistent pressure up front? Where did that come from? JaQues Evans is a linebacker, but he’s basically DeAngelo Malone 2.0. Juwuan Jones did his thing this game, getting a few tackles and a sack. Will Ignont is another linebacker, but he plays near the line of scrimmage.
Where are the D tackles? Brodric Martin started and gets two tackles. Darius Shipp started but isn’t even in the defensive statistics. He has started every game but has four tackles and three QB hurries. That’s it. By comparison, backup Lorenzo Hernandez for example has 11 tackles, 1.5 TFL, .5 sacks, and 3 QBH. Terrion Thompson, same thing. More tackles, 3 TFL, has some hits on the QB. Perhaps it’s time for a demotion for Darius Shipp. A veteran with lots of experience, whatever the issue or excuse is, he’s not producing anything of significance. You can’t have a starter on defense producing less than a tackle a game. The D-Line has to find some formula to get pressure three to five players so that the defense can function normally if it needs to. If WKU has to send the house to get results, that’s leaving the Tops vulnerable in the back end.
Linebackers: B+
WKU’s linebackers continue to produce. Giving up 34 points obviously means everybody contributed to the accumulation. However, the linebackers produced two of the four sacks, the lone forced turnover, and many of them were near the top of the tackles list. Linebackers are the core of the defense, and when they are good, the other two units can be not as good and still give the team a chance to win. Unlike 2021, when the linebacking group was non-existent at times, these guys are producing, and it shows in the stats. Even though the defensive line allowed the line of scrimmage to be taken mainly by Troy, the second line of defense for the Tops held their own, and if you think about it, even the running game, which Troy had great success with compared to earlier performances this year, Troy was rarely able to get past the second level, with only one run of 20 yards or more. The linebackers were there to clean up the mess the line was leaving.
Defensive Backs: C+
I’m not sure what people probably expect to see in terms of grades for the defense. People clamor for someone to blame after every loss no matter what. But honestly, although the DBs did give up nearly 300 yards against Troy and were a part of a defense that gave up over 400 yards, let’s keep it in context, too. Until Jarret Doege came in against the Tops, WKU was holding Troy to aboue 50 percent passing and less than 200 yards. As some described on social media, Doege gets his “Disney moment” and leads his team to the victory after a back-and-forth affair. Good for him. It was the ultimate “I told you so” type of statement. He looked great. He also probably had a leg up practicing against the WKU defense for half a year. But he goes 7-for-8 with two TDs to finish most of the rest of the game and the numbers are skewed well in the favor of the Troy Trojans. Also, even with Doege’s excellent performance, the Tops still held a Troy offense used to throwing for over 300 to 280. If WKU’s run defense had held up, I daresay WKU wins, possibly by multiple scores.
Special Teams: A
Honestly, go figure. WKU’s Achilles Heel all season didn’t cost them. Heck, it kept them in it! Tom Ellard nearly averaged 50, Munson kicked his sky balls and only allowed one really good return (32 yards, the lone reason for a non A+) while recording half of his kickoffs as touchbacks, and perhaps the biggest relief to see was Brayden Narveson acting like himself and making some long field goals. That was such a relief, and now Narveson is back to being a fairly average kicker overall on the year, making a few long ones and making 70 percent of his kicks. If he had missed those two, or even 1-of-2, I feel like the kicking competition would have opened back up immediately. The return game didn’t get much of a chance, mostly because of multiple roughing the passer penalties on touchdowns that gave Troy the kickoff at the 50. Anyway, the players WKU has on Special Teams have proven they can each be great, so hopefully the Tops put these issues to bed for good against Troy.
Coaching: C+
Overall, there were some things to complain about, certainly, but unlike against Indiana, I’m having trouble naming more than a few questionable blunders. I think the coaches put the players in a decent place to win for the most part. I think Tyson did a good job positioning his team late to give them a chance, and I think the most culpability for anyone lies on the offensive play calling. Now, is that Tyson or Ben Arbuckle or a combination of them and some of the other main offensive heads? I don’t know. I’m not in the headset, I’m not in the booth, and I’m not on the sideline. I thought Tyson Summers did a pretty good job considering his defensive line couldn’t do jack most of the game. They were ineffective, he worked around it, and found a way to give the Tops a chance. Are there some issues I named above that seem odd related to the D-Line? Yes, but other than that, I think he’s on the level of a Clayton White or Lance Guidry in terms of excellent hires as defensive coordinators.
Head Coaching: C
Tyson was decent this game. I think he deserves major props for keeping the team together to finish the game, making decisions under pressure, and not wasting timeouts. He called them at the right time, and more importantly, saved them in order to give the Tops a chance late. However, I think the biggest issue I have with Tyson this game is really cumulative from the offensive decision making. We all know he has an integral role in the offensive game plan, and there were some things I thought WKU should have tried that they didn’t. WKU ended up running screens and short curls a ton. Fine. Troy is giving you that, and I don’t blame you for taking what you’re given.
However, when Austin Reed ran a designed run, how often was it successful? How often has it been successful this season? More often than not, he’s gaining yardage. Why not run him three to five more times? Now if he’s beat up and we don’t know it, fine. I’ll lay off of that one. Otherwise, he’s a gifted runner. Let him run just a little bit more. Also, did Joey Beljan get a reception? Did Josh Simon get featured in your offense in any way besides a red zone touchdown? Did Dalvin Smith get a ball thrown to him where he was in or near the end zone? Where was some “Play Action Fake Wham (Wham is a block from a tight end coming across the back of the center)” to the tight end? I thought the tight ends could have been used more, along with some QB runs or read (call it “Reed” if you want) options that could have opened up the middle of the field so that you could have thrown some deeper passes. I think Troy did the best job of the year clogging up the middle of the field for WKU’s offense (second place to Austin Peay) and forcing the Tops to settle for short passes or daring to throw deep to the outside.
Offensive Coaching: C-
I just kind of hit on OC Ben Arbuckle’s culpability in talking about Tyson Helton. I won’t belabor the point. But WKU’s offense definitely has to figure out how to consistently call the same plays all over the field. Perfect example of “overthinking” was when WKU gets the ball in Troy territory. Drive starts at the Troy 31. What does WKU do after a big momentum swing? Run the ball four times. Now, they did earn a first down. Yay Tops. However, on the fourth run, WKU loses four yards, so it’s 2nd-and-14. After running four plays in a row, what is the most obvious thing in the world on this down? You’re going to have to pass and probably try to gain some decent yardage, since you’re needing to play for field goal range, too. What happens? Tops get sacked, incomplete pass on 3rd-and-21, and Narveson saves you by making a 47 yarder.
That sequence was not a good one. If running the ball four straight times works, great. But the moment you get negative yardage, you become extremely predictable. And heck, on that 2nd-and-14, why not do something quick? You know they’re coming. Maybe risk that they definitely bring pressure and slip your tight end the ball over the top of the middle of the defense? Quick out? One of your screens could have worked well there. Without looking back, I assume they were playing off a little bit on a longer yardage play. If they were pressing, good for them. But you can take advantage of press coverage with pressure, too. That means one-on-one probably across the field. Pick your matchup. Also, I would love to know why Jakairi Moses didn’t play in this game. I would love to know why RB screens were not emphasized, as well. What about L.T. Sanders? He was a revelation against FIU. Either he or Jakairi should have played more of an offensive role. You have had a rotation of three. Why go away from that very successful, versatile combination?
Defensive Coaching: C+
Tyson Summers had to cobble together a defense this game. They were not as effective. The defensive line was its least consistent all season thus far. I really want to emphasize that maybe some other defensive tackles should get more snaps. Hernandez and Terrion Thompson could easily be argued as the two best defensive tackles for WKU thus far this season. Yet they are the backups. I understand Martin is a way more debatable, but sadly Darius Shipp has one more tackle than Cory Munson. Brodric Martin has been plagued by injury. If I’m a defensive coach, should I not be thinking of giving the guys with more explosive, memorable plays a chance to make more? The plays I remember from the D-Line are from Lorenzo Hernandez, JaQues Evans, and Juwuan Jones. Terrion Thompson is the next person I would pick as the next most consistent playmaker. He just needs a little more consistency, but when he’s making a play, it’s usually a big one.
Special Teams Coaching: A
A very small part of this game, but I wanted to give a shoutout to the coaches involved with Special Teams, because this was absolutely the best game of the year for this part of the ball. WKU dealt with two Troy kickoffs from the 50, meaning they needed to be prepared for onside kicks and needing to know to fair catch a short kickoff. They were prepared. WKU’s coverage was good with the exception of the one longer kickoff return. Ellard was on the sideline practicing his drops, meaning the coaches are emphasizing his consistency related to how he releases the ball to his foot. I liked what I saw, and definitely wanted to give them credit. Whether you realize it or not, Special Teams was the reason WKU had a chance at the end despite being down 14 with seven minutes to play.
The Fans: A+
I almost forgot to include this, but it absolutely deserves a mention. The crowd was absolutely electric at times during this game. Interestingly, the new side of the stadium was making all kinds of racket with those metal bleachers, and the players were getting hyped up. It was awesome to see them looking at the crowd and smiling instead of looking at the crowd wondering why no one cares. I know that’s hyperbole, because people do care, but when there’s a presence from the crowd, it makes a difference for the home team. In a game where it felt kind of like WKU was a little flat at times, the crowd helped keep them engaged and help them have that fighting chance. I think from experience, when the crowd gets crazy, it’s an injection of “We’ve gotta go get this one”. It’s a thrill. They players were thrilled to have a fan base that was going crazy for them in a big time game. Let’s see more of it. Go to the games. Cheer. Beat on the bleachers. Break a sweat. Travel to Middle. If you want WKU to be in position to move up conferences, the fans need to be impressive. Full marks for this one. It was an awesome atmosphere.
Overall: C+
Troy is a good football team. Let’s not forget that. They probably had knowledge of the WKU offensive playbook, probably had some insight on the defense, and that may have helped some. It certainly helped Jarret Doege come in and go 7-of-8 with two touchdowns. Troy sat on WKU’s shoulders all night, defensively. Basically Troy forced WKU to execute over. And over. And over. And over. Again. Eventually on most drives, WKU would mess up, drop a pass, Troy would deflect, or the defensive line would bust up the play up front.
WKU was not able to pass the ball like they like to, and Western had to pull out the best routes they possibly could to move the ball at times. Mathison had this gorgeous stop and go that gave WKU a chance at the end. That’s not always the go-to deep route, but he ran it perfectly, Reed read it well, and Mathison was wide open. That was an execution play by WKU, something they were forced to do to move the ball in chunks. Otherwise, it was left to them to dink and dunk, or to try to run on the ground.
Speaking of running, I do take significant issue with why Jakairi Moses barely played. It either should have been him or L.T. Sanders. Both of those guys have shown capability to be a good option. Let one of them try their hand. Moses is an electric player with the ball in his hands in space. Sanders produced 75 yards with limited opportunity as soon as he was given it. Why not scratch that itch immediately. Pick one of those two and see if you can get some mileage with them. What was your one issue with this game? Needing to find players some space. Kye Robichaux has good hands, proving last year that he is a capable receiver. He hasn’t been utilized thus far this year in the passing game. I’d take any of the top three on a wheel route, but I especially know from previous experience that Robichaux and Moses are both very good at running that route. Ervin-Poindexter is no slouch, either.
Overall, like I said to start, let’s not get too wound up about this game. Yeah it takes away the top off of the possibilities for this year from a national perspective, but everything else is still in front of the Tops, and I firmly believe Troy is going to mess up somebody’s season in the Sun Belt. They probably won’t win their division, mostly because they’re already lost a game in conference, but they’re extremely likely to finish in the top half of what could be the clear best G5 conference within the next couple of years.
Although it really sucks to lose in front of a big crowd, two things were great about the Troy game. The crowd was incredible, and those players won’t forget how awesome the fans were. That kind of stuff keeps players from transferring, and it makes it fun to play at home when you know your fans have your back. Secondly, WKU did some things to screw themselves and nearly won anyway. If WKU could just fix silly mistakes, like penalties, like fumbles instead of tucking the ball, like getting rid of the ball instead of taking a sack, like making the tackle that is there in front of you instead of trying to lay a big hit and missing the tackle altogether, the Tops would probably be 5-0. What does that mean? WKU is in control of its destiny. That can be really frustrating, but if WKU plays its best, they probably beat the remaining teams on their schedule more than 50 percent of the time. Most games are nearly a guaranteed “W” if the Tops play their best.
WKU is still 3-2 and in the best position schedule-wise in years. If WKU could reel off three wins here, the Tops could be staring at a magical season. However, WKU could easily dig itself a hole the next three games, as well
Support the Tops. They deserve it. They’re very good, and they could easily match the achievements of several of the previous championship caliber teams in recent to distant memory.