WKU Football: Grading the Hilltopper's 20-17 Loss at Jacksonville State
We know that was a winnable game, but where did it go wrong?
Western Kentucky suffered their first loss in Conference USA play from a program that, at the start of the year, would have seemed outlandish to think would even be able to hang with the high-powered Hilltoppers.
But, here we sit, the Gamecocks bowl eligible and the Hilltoppers needing a season-revitalizing performance against Liberty on Tuesday.
Before we look ahead, we take one more look back.
Grading the Keys to Victory
More First Half, Completely Trash the Second: F+
This was the exact confirmation of the fear created by the near-meltdown at La Tech. WKU was less explosive in the first half, and the second half was equally dismal. WKU’s defense did its job, keeping WKU around and holding off JSU’s offense as long as they could. WKU’s depleted defense kept JSU to 20 points and forced a turnover (second turnover forced by the offense). What more can you ask? They just got worn out. That’s on the offense.
Let the Talent Overcome: D-
As was concerning, Jacksonville State was clearly not quite as talented and still found a win. Jacksonville State is a quality team, and they are coached well. It’s not a question in my mind, for those that somehow question whether JSU is a quality football team. For perspective, WKU went 7-5 in its first year of transition playing a hybrid schedule, then went 2-10, 0-12, and 2-10. Maybe be careful about taking shots at JSU when WKU couldn’t do that. Maybe just respect it. JSU stepped up when the chips were down. WKU faded.
Suck it Up: D
I guess WKU came in and played like the team that was the team that should have won. So yay for that. But what about sucking it up and figuring it out in the second half AT ALL? Frustrating. This team needs a good dose of “suck it up” going forward. Ultimately it’s go time. Suck it the heck up, boys. It’s go time.
Be the Better Unit: F
Well, yeah Jacksonville State’s defense held WKU’s talented offense to 339 yards and shut WKU out after the Tops went up 17-7. WKU’s offense not only didn’t put up incredible numbers in the first half, but also didn’t come through in the second half for the second week in a row. Even Malachi Corley wasn’t his best, dropping several balls en route to one of his more average performances. WKU’s running backs combined for 71 yards on 22 carries. That is them finally getting the rock and doing absolutely nothing with it.
Dominate up Front: B-
I would say it’s fair that WKU controlled the line of scrimmage. Whether it’s looking statistically, or whether it is looking at the eye test, WKU was slightly better up front. However, they were not tangibly better in the trenches in the second half, and they certainly did not “dominate” the line of scrimmage as they should have. I said in the first half that if WKU kept it up how they were going up front at that point, they were pretty much going to win. Well, from that point forward, the tendency up front was much more even. However, overall, WKU did produce three sacks with seven total TFL, while JSU was only able to get to Austin Reed once, while getting the WKU backfield two other times.
Position Grades
Quarterback: C+
With nearly 300 total yards and several dropped passes, Austin Reed could have easily had a monster day. Was his pass about a foot off to Moussa Berry? Sure. Were a couple of his passes to Malachi Corley a little low and screaming bullets? Yes. Did he have several plays where he just missed? Yes. Did he have a couple of plays where he just made a bad decision? Yes.
But if you put in the fact that his receivers dropped a good 60-ish yards worth of catchable balls? If Austin Reed threw for 60 more yards and maybe another touchdown, he’s probably looked at as the hero and gives himself a Conference USA Player of the Year type of moment. Instead, he throws 50%, has an interception to mar the numbers further, and looks pedestrian. You hate it for the kid, but the major factor here is just basically disappearing in the second half. Austin is the leader of this team. Tell the coaches to kick rocks if you have to. Whatever you need to do rally the troops, it’s your time to shine, bud. No more excuses. Be the leader most people think you should be.
Running Back: C-
Four receptions for 20 yards keeps this from the D range, but the running backs got their chances and averaged barely three yards per carry. Don’t complain when you don’t get the ball in crunch time when you pull out a performance like that. I hope the Tops trust the running game, and I hope they get creative with it (how about some read option, fellas?). They did pull out some 2 RB sets, so that was a nice wrinkle. They also used a fake handoff and a little tunnel pitch to the handoff man that (serious credit) was a nice playcall that we haven’t seen all year.
Wide Receiver: C-
Malachi Corley was bottled up, but a couple of other guys did step in and do something. There was also a strip on an interception that preserved a possession for the Tops as WKU’s budding young tackle, Marshall Jackson, recovered the newfound fumble. But that’s kind of where the positives stop at the receiver position for this game. Western continues to show a propensity to drop crucial, reasonably placed, passes. In a three point loss, when you have more drops than points lost by, you just have to wonder “what if…?”
Tight End: B+
Well, you can’t say River Helms didn’t do his part. Heck, his counterpart, Trevor Borland, was open on at least one play for a wide open touchdown that Austin Reed went short to a receiver in the flat on for an incompletion. With 50 yards and a touchdown, River Helms nearly doubles all of his tangible offensive production for his career. Maybe they should look at using these guys some more…
Offensive Line: B-
I’m not sure how much we can blame the offensive line for much. Again, this unit is on pace to give up seven sacks in the regular season, folks. That’s half of the amount Forrest Lamp’s best offensive unit could produce. I don’t remember any “What the heck” moments from the offensive line, and the aforementioned Jackson also recovered a crucial fumble, showing his big play ability and his awareness on the field. I’ll give this unit a pretty high grade compared to the rest of the offensive positions, simply because there weren’t any obvious issues, no penalties, and only three total tackles for loss given up against a capable unit.
Defensive Line: B-
Although this unit got worn out late in the game and played a large part in giving up significant yardage, the defensive line was involved in this game, and I think people often forget how tough it is to hold a college offense to 20 points. Give the defense some credit, and don’t be so quick to judge them by their late game performance when the offense forced them to be on the field for 20+ minutes in the second half.
Linebacker: B-
The middle of WKU’s defense has stepped up. Without Donut Evans, to still have significant production was an accomplishment in the beginning of the season, and of late, it is a common occurrence. Good for this unit. They should be proud. However, giving up so much yardage is why I don’t feel comfortable giving them or any defensive unit a higher grade than decent.
Defensive Back: B-
Out of principle, losing a game the Tops shouldn’t have lost is a kick in the teeth. Along with giving up a bunch of yards, including some big chunk plays, it’s hard to give major kudos to the defensive unit by giving any kind of “A” grade. However, this unit does continue to produce, and Kendrick Simpkins is a wonderful player that Tyson Summers brilliantly uses to create chaos in the opponents’ backfield on the snap of the ball. However, can we see more down-to-down excellence from WKU’s DBs? Let’s see the Tops right up on everybody, making it hard for them to breathe. That’s when you know you have great DBs.
Special Teams: A-
I think WKU’s Special Teams unit was well above average Tuesday. Cory Munson was his typical self, not allowing a kickoff return. Lucas Carneiro is yet to miss a field goal in 2023, an incredible feat. Easton Messer had a couple of nice returns, and Tom Ellard, although low on the average, did have a really nice booming punt, got some bounces, kicked away from JSU, and had several punts end up inside the 20, including a few inside the ten yard line. Special teams did its part in keeping WKU in it by giving WKU field position to force JSU to gain more yards to beat them.
Coaching Grades
Head Coaching: D
There are three things that stood out to me that made me wonder what the heck Tyson Helton was thinking. One was the Austin Reed punt. That was silly. (ed. note - Fletcher chiming in. It actually ruled. I cannot disagree with Matt stronger here. Okay, carry on.)
On 4th-and-7 in your own territory, you have Reed punt when the defense knows you’re probably not actually going for it? Fortunately, Reed punted it well and actually kicked it inside the 20. But why, though? WKU goes for it at midfield up 7, running up the middle with Markese Stepp. But why, though? It ended up being okay, because WKU intercepted a couple of plays later…but why, though? And finally…and you can argue this with me if you want, but hear me out…WKU is tied 17-17 late in the 4th. JSU is in field goal range, but barely. After a gain of 9, WKU’s defense faces a 2nd-and-1 and calls timeout with 1:25 remaining.
Now listen, I understand JSU probably wins no matter what. BUT what are the chances JSU gets a first down on 2nd-and-1? Almost 100%. With 1:25 remaining, what if WKU saved the TO, let JSU get the first down, and THEN called timeout? First of all, JSU may have kept trying to get closer and could have made a mistake by trying to pass and dropping it, etc. Second of all, WKU conceivably COULD have gotten the ball back, depending on whether JSU got another first down, whether they efficiently ran the clock, ran the ball, etc. The point is, WKU completely handed control over to JSU by burning timeouts just a little too early. But also, what if you save a timeout just to freeze the kicker? There are so many question marks and opportunities to screw up that were taken away by making everything an easy decision once WKU burned that first timeout.
Offensive Coaching: D-
Some of the numbers are skewed because of drops. Then again, drops are also part of coaching. There were also a couple of moments of “That was a decent play call” here and there. However, for the most part, WKU was decent in the first half, but the second half play calling was dismal. There is rumor on “The X” that perhaps someone else was calling plays in the second half the last couple of weeks. If that person would kindly stop calling plays, that might be a good idea considering they produced zero combined points in four quarters of play. Whatever the deal is, WKU’s offense is not very good right now, and part of it is because players aren’t being used properly.
Defensive Coaching: B
Tyson Summers, once again, is arguably the best coach on this WKU staff. His guys seemed to have a plan, and they stuck to it. Despite being abandoned to figure it out on their own in the second half, they fought admirably to keep WKU ahead of the Gamecocks. However, they faded over time. Perhaps some of that blame can go on coaching, simply because that’s an easy answer. However, I don’t think Tyson Summers should get much blame for anything this season. He’s dealt with injury, dealt with a truly bad down-to-down defense, and has somehow produced a unit that produces the most turnovers in the country.
Overall: D+
First of all, Jacksonville State is a very good, very well coached football team. Anyone who denies that is just being unreasonable. They’re 6-2 against FBS competition. Get over yourself that they didn’t play an SEC schedule. They have played enough decent football teams that will likely go bowling in December and beaten them that they deserve their 6-2 record.
So don’t forget that part of this equation. However, I do think WKU was the more talented unit in all three phases, yet still somehow lost. WKU’s offense was above average in the first half. It wasn’t spectacular, but it was very good. Its offense in the second half was putrid. They couldn’t have put together a drive if they were in a car in neutral on I-65 heading down from Ridgetop. Consequently, they got rear ended in the second half by the Jacksonville State University Gamecocks.
WKU’s defense was stingy at times, but second down seemed to hurt WKU more than any other down. JSU’s quarterback, Zion Webb, was at his best, carving up WKU’s defense, at times with his arm, and at times with his legs.
Western’s special teams were quite good, but they weren’t given enough of an opportunity to make a difference when it came to the outcome.
Most alarmingly, it felt like Jacksonville State just wanted it more, and when they got momentum, WKU seemed to fall in line with the proceedings. That is perhaps the reason for the low grade overall.
Western was in the game and led the game or was tied the entire game. However, they couldn’t respond to the heart of the Gamecocks. When the moments came, Jacksonville State forced WKU to do what it didn’t want to.
Fortunately, the game against Jacksonville State is in the past, and frankly, WKU has an opportunity to seize control of CUSA by beating Liberty. If the Tops beat Liberty, they will need at least one more loss to not host the conference championship game, while probably needing to lose two additional games to not finish in a top two position in CUSA.
WKU’s game against Liberty on Tuesday looms large for many reasons, and hopefully the Tops come out hungry, humble, and harassed for Tuesday night’s epic clash. This is perhaps the biggest game in L.T. Smith Stadium since when? It could easily be argued conference championship game in 2016. There are a few other games that we could throw in there, but WKU has not had a matchup that so singlehandedly impacting its ability to either host the championship or to possibly completely fall out of it. There were some road games that were impactful late in the season (at Marshall in 2021, for example), but this is the biggest that I can remember this late in the season between the number one and number two contender for the Conference USA crown.
Buckle up, Toppers. Hopefully the crowd shows up, gets into the game, and helps the fellas bring home a W.