WKU Football: How Good is Mike Sanford?
College football is such a fickle game. You never know what to expect; how good a team could be or how much 18 to 24-year-old’s like and…
College football is such a fickle game. You never know what to expect; how good a team could be or how much 18 to 24-year-old’s like and want to play for their coaches who change jobs every two or three years.
According to coachingsearch.com, 77% of college football head coaches have been at their job for six years or less.
The Hilltopper football program is no stranger to this kind of turnover. Since 2009, WKU has had five head coaches and countless assistants. Those different leaders had different styles; they coached to different strengths, used different technical language, recruited different players and areas of the country, and ultimately, coached at different levels of ability.
So this bears the question: How good is Mike Sanford?
First, WKU comes off of the greatest two seasons in their history, winning two conference championships, two bowl games, and being ranked in at least one poll at the end of both seasons. Coach Sanford comes in on the heels of greatness. Naturally, expectation has risen, and everyone expects Sanford to walk straight in and win 15 out of 14 games and win two national championships in half a season.
Those expectations are unfair, and they don’t account for variables. What if WKU lost multiple NFL starters, role players and practice squad members each of those two years? What if a revolutionary coach vacated the head coaching spot and left a roster with some holes? Perhaps that happened.
Now, ultimately, Mike Sanford or even Nick Saban himself should not be given a complete free pass. So let’s run down the Mike Sanford timeline and see what we find at the end.
In December of last year, Jeff Brohm left for Purdue and Mike Sanford was announced as the new WKU head coach. Sanford was the current offensive coordinator at Notre Dame, who just finished a down year, but Sanford had a coaching pedigree and significant experience for someone so young (35).
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He was also known as a very good recruiter. Before Notre Dame, he was at (among other stops) Stanford, Boise State and previously with WKU. He had a legitimate (but young) coaching staff that he could put together, including his father, Mike Sanford, Sr., and Clayton White, the current defensive coordinator.
Sanford assembled his troops, and there are some very respectable names on hand, although his staff as a whole is young and unproven. He immediately hits the recruiting trail, trying to salvage what he could of Brohm’s prospects, trying to be sure players don’t transfer, and finding new prospects that may have just de-committed or hadn’t been picked up yet. He immediately recruits better ranked players than Brohm or Bobby Petrino had in any of their four years combined.
Heading into the fall, an expectant fan base wanted to know about the 2017 version of the team. WKU lost huge pieces, most notably three great offensive linemen, two all-time receivers and a host of defensive players from each level of the defense. All told, six active NFL players came out of the past two years’ teams. More than a dozen others had legitimate opportunities in the NFL or some other league.
Most of the huge questions were going to be offensively. The offensive line had two borderline All-American caliber linemen coming back, so in theory, they just needed to have some decent players around them to be better than average. The wide receivers seemed to have pretty good promise and Sanford brought in some guys that could immediately add depth and compete to start. Running back didn’t seem to be such a huge concern, because there were four studs that could potentially step in and carry the rock.
Defensively, WKU’s only real concern was the defensive line, which was fairly average from 2013–16 and didn’t seem to have any star talent. But surely WKU could overcome that question mark defensively if they had in years past.
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We are nine games into 2017 and you know how it’s gone — the running game is putrid, the offense is frustratingly inconsistent and the defense is arguably the star of the show week in and week out.
Of those nine games, one game was a good performance, full stop (Charlotte). In WKU’s five wins, three were come from behind victories after blowing first half leads. WKU held a lead at some point in the fourth quarter in two of their four losses. Another game was within a touchdown with 16 minutes left (Vanderbilt).
So, do we have enough evidence to declare if Sanford is good yet?
The Great
The WKU defense has directly won and sealed three games for the Red and White.
The development and utilization of the tight end position, especially Deon Yelder
Sanford has messed with wide receiver combinations, and they have worked. There was a learning curve, but he made a pledge to get Kylen Towner involved in the game plan and he immediately had a 100 yard game. He mentioned Cameron Echols-Luper, and until last game, he had been in and made some big boy plays. He benched leading receiver Lucky Jackson, which seemed absurd, but the Hilltopper O produced over 600 yards of offense immediately. He reduced Nacarius Fant’s time for a few games. Both Fant and Jackson have come up with some huge plays of late, despite having been benched in earlier games.
Halfway through the season, Sanford slowed down trying to change everything. WKU played some up-tempo, played more spread, and started implementing trick plays. Since the UTEP game, WKU has had at least 349 yards of offense in each game. Before that game, WKU did not have a single game with over 400 yards of offense.
Mike White somehow has six rushing touchdowns, most of which have come on read options on the goal line. Bizarre but awesome.
Jake Collins is awesome.
The Swinging Gate-WKU won the UTEP game because of the two-point conversion early in the game. They nearly won against La Tech because of it.
Yelder taking a snap at quarterback in the red zone. This completely confused FAU, and Yelder easily scored a touchdown at a crucial moment.
The Good
Frankly, for those of you that feel he has done nothing right, you are wrong. He has done some things that I think have been really effective.
Recruiting rankings are light years ahead of the previous two coaches, and they are already locked in on most of the class of 2018.
The passing game has steadily improved over the season, and WKU is only slightly less efficient than 2016 despite a slow start.
In every game, the defense has been solid.
Most teams that have lost interest do not play hard, and WKU definitely plays with effort on all sides of the ball at all times.
Sanford abandoned the run in the first few games, and it hurt the Tops. He learned from his mistake and committing to try to run the ball has greatly helped WKU in the Time of Possession battle, and has kept them in games later in the year.
Coach Sanford has been extremely good in the media, setting the tone, explaining what is going on, and being a face for the program. He is complimentary of his staff and players, and he takes the blame first before questioning anyone else’s execution.
The Bad
First, these are questionable. Just because they are mentioned doesn’t mean they are necessarily bad calls or directly because of Mike Sanford’s leadership. You may disagree.
Field Goal Kicking: Ryan Nuss is 5–9 on his field goal attempts, and Skyler Simcox, Preseason All-American candidate, lost his job in fall camp and left the program.
Overall Special Teams: One of the great strengths in recent memories was all-around good to great special teams that created field position. Several silly turnovers, like getting hit by a ball inside the ten yard line on a punt, have cost Dear Old Western dearly. Special Teams success is 100% coaching and motivation, and WKU is slightly below average this year.
Defensive Line Production: The Toppers only have seven sacks on the season, which is last in the country. They do a good job keeping contain, forcing opponents to stay in the pocket, but do not produce numbers.
Fourth Down Decision Making/Play Calling: WKU has converted less than half of their 17 fourth down attempts. In no way should a team attempt to go for it this many times without getting way more than half of the conversions. These should be your best plays, and WKU has attempted to run up the middle or off tackle on many of these. In addition, Sanford has gone for it in negative territory early in games and not gotten it, or gotten lucky. That serves no strategical advantage. He has also gone for it on fourth and short in the red zone in some situations that would’ve been fine to kick a field goal. He even went for it on a fourth and medium in field goal range. If you’re desperate, go for it, but if you’re not, you better make it, or it better not hurt your chances to win. Also, none of these 17 attempts were on a punt. These are all straightforward fourth down attempts.
Sensationalism: If something doesn’t work, they put that idea on ice and come back to it later. Sometimes, you have to keep faith in what you’re doing.
Red Zone Turnovers: You have to be able to take care of the ball when backed up or about to score. This is definitely a coaching and play calling issue. You have to give yourself opportunities when in it deep. FAU, Illinois, and La Tech were all lost because of this.
Lack of offensive creativity: From a football perspective, WKU is predictable, and there are not significant intricacies in route running. Play action is pretty rare. Screens could disguise a bad offensive line. I have not looked at more than five plays all season and thought, “I love that play!” If someone really knows football, they should see creative details. Routes should be designed to force defenses to make decisions. If your plays don’t make a defense think, or they don’t specifically give you an advantage, your players better win one-on-one, because your play is average.
Running Schemes: In the run game, there is very little variation. WKU doesn’t run draws, they don’t run many counters, and they don’t make defenses think.
I’d be interested to see what percentage WKU uses different personnel. I would say at least 95 percent are standard formations. I think WKU needs to use two running backs more often. If they can’t run the ball consistently, use them as decoys, or use them to pass protect. Try a Wild Topper with Towner, Moses, and Fant all in the backfield at the snap with a big receiver on the outside. Put a lineman in the backfield. Try using Fourtenbary like a Baisch or Kadeem Jones type fullback. Try three tight ends. Pass out of obvious running formations. Run a pure reverse. Fake a reverse. The possibilities are endless, and they have not been exploited. What is my point? Be unpredictable!
The Ugly
There’s no question there are some bad marks on the Sanford regime so far.
The running game: Just awful. No rusher has finished with 75 yards in a single game. No one is averaging more than 33 yards per game, and he is now out for the season (Quinton Baker). No single run play has gone for 20 or more yards. Three guys with significant experience, and an explosive true freshman, and none of them have been effective. Sanford believes in a run-first offense and can’t run the ball. This is absolutely unacceptable.
Offensive Line: 29 sacks given up, 2.3 yards per rush with four upperclassmen starters.
Coaches acknowledging that they are learning on the fly and aren’t used to operating in the roles they’re in.
Three-and-outs late in games: WKU has had the worst timing this year. You have to put your players in position to be successful on each drive, and some possessions have just been mailed in.
Third Quarter: WKU is yet to score more than seven points in any third quarter this year. If the third quarter determined the record, the Hilltoppers would be 3–5–1 on the year.
Blowing it: WKU has blown leads of some kind in five of nine games. WKU has had a lead in all but two games, has been within two touchdowns of the lead in the second half in every game, and has been within one score or in the lead in the second half in all but one game. Translation: They find ways to lose.
Lack of Execution in Big Moments: If a two score game is considered close enough to win, WKU could have legitimately won every game, but they also could have lost all but one of their games.
Conclusion: So far, Mike Sanford is a good recruiter and an average coach
Allow me to take you behind the curtain for a moment: I’m a former WKU football equipment manager, and I love Coach Sanford. I worked for him. He’s a good man, and I think he has done a decent job so far. I love WKU Football in general, and I tried to make this as balanced and fair as I possibly could.
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The bottom line is to this point is Mike Sanford has been average. Keep in mind that he lost tons of talent, and he is a brand new head coach. He has never had to think on a macro level before. However, there is no such thing as a junior head coach. He is in the big leagues, and I have been as honest and fair as I can be.
Now, I just laid out 14 positive points, and 16 negative ones. Call it basically even. This speaks to massive inconsistency: Most teams either have it or they don’t in most games. Some games are battles, but generally, one team is better than the other. WKU has been great and horrible in every game in the 2017 season. If you’re a WKU fan, you’re frustrated beyond measure, because without exaggerating, this team could be undefeated!
Some of these faults are not purely on the coach. Players have to make plays. Your horses run the race, and the owners get the credit. However, the owners train and spend time with the horses, and the horses have to be conditioned to win.
Imagine the pressure of being an FBS head coach. Most likely, you’re making the most money you ever have in your life, and you know you could lose your job because of things outside of your control within a half a season. You have 12 regular season opportunities a year, and if you cost your team any games because of your strategy, you could end up fired. Maybe some of us could make better decisions, or manage the clock better. But could we do it with 120 people reacting to our every command and relying on us to lead them to a victory, and thousands of people telling us how we’re doing while we do it while having the football acumen to create 200 different plays?
It’s a tough gig. I believe Coach Sanford needs time to develop. He will learn how to handle games and strategy over time, or he will eventually flounder. He has some excellent positives: He is energetic, well-spoken, and people and recruits like him. But at this moment, he has some blaring weaknesses: Game strategy, play calling, and consistency. Frankly, his positives are not going away, and his negatives are all fixable. I believe he had an “ahha!” moment after the UTEP debacle, and Western has played respectable football since then.
WKU Football is 5–4. Ultimately, WKU could win eight games in 2017, finish second in the East Division (or even win it with divine help) and go to a bowl game. Sanford still has the opportunity to meet expectations. Will he?