WKU Football: Keys to Beating Auburn
What does WKU need to do to win on The Plains?
Western Kentucky Football is now bowl eligible, has a shot at an outside shot at a Conference USA title appearance, and is only a 5.5 point underdog to the Auburn Tigers, an SEC team that is trying to salvage its season despite firing its coach mid season.
If you set that as the goal at the beginning of the season, I think WKU fans would have jumped all over that deal.
What’s remarkable is Western Football has seemingly underachieved this season. WKU’s defense is special, with playmakers all over. Western’s offense is averaging nearly 40 points per game despite an October from hell offensively.
Young players have surprised, and veterans have largely stayed healthy. WKU’s O-Line took a huge blow when left tackle Mark Goode went down with a season ending knee injury, and WKU has given up less sacks after he went down than before.
WKU now has a legitimate opportunity to take down an SEC opponent on the road, and hopefully the Tops smell some blood and go take this opportunity.
So what does WKU need to take said opportunity and leave Shunnarah-ville with the W?
Keys to Victory
Big Red Coming on the Clouds?
Auburn Football is a mess. Somehow they thought the above graphic was some kind of intimidation play at WKU’s Big Red. I have no idea. It looks like Big Red is Hannibal coming over the mountains, or that Big Red is coming to save Auburn? Is that supposed to be a vortex with Eagles coming out of it? It’s honestly a cool looking graphic, but it honestly looks like WKU is the intimidator, here. Whatever. Anyway, Auburn, bless their heart, is a mess. They just fired their coach a few weeks ago, but they’re also not a God awful pile of crap. Their boosters are just rich, unrealistic rednecks who wish they went to Alabama. I think a huge piece of an upset, a road win, a Power Five victory, a “buy” game, whatever you want to label this monstrous opportunity as, is the mental part of the game.
Auburn is not a sitting duck, here. They are live for bowl eligibility if they beat WKU and upset Alabama next week in the Iron Bowl. They know they need this W. They’re at home. They’re feeling frisky and want to prove that they’re not a bunch of pansies that got their coach fired. Understand your opponent, WKU. This is an SEC opponent that is motivated and has weapons. The Tops better bring it, and they better find ways to stop key elements of Auburn or it could get ugly.
Assignment Football for the Defense
Without question, this should almost be treated like a triple option “assignment football” type of game. I’d look for WKU to play more linebackers than defensive linemen, and I would assume WKU will just assign players with certain tasks in the running game. Cornerbacks and safeties will be asked to do their job and make sure Auburn isn’t passing, but Auburn QB Robby Ashford is incredibly unlikely to do much with the football if he’s asked to pass it. If I’m WKU, I’m loading up on the run and risking it if Auburn beats me through the air. Ashford throws for 50 percent completions, has only 1434 yards for the entire season passing, and is just as likely to throw an interception as he is to throw a touchdown. That’s not to completely say he’s a bum through the air, but far and away, he’s a bigger threat on the ground as the second leading rusher. Tank Bigsby is one of the better backs in the SEC, and Jarquez Hunter is a dual threat out of the backfield as the changeup for Bigsby. Watch for Hunter and Bigsby to sneak out of the backfield and make a couple of plays in the passing game. Focus on the running backs and the option game and live with it.
Be Aggressive in the Passing Game
Auburn clearly is not a risk taking defense. They keep things in front of them, don’t go ball hawking, and they try to strip the ball instead of going for unnecessary risks through the air. Auburn only gives up a shade over 200 yards per game through the air, a very respectable number. I think your running game may have some holes, but I believe it would be a mistake to do what you did against UAB and abandon the pass because you see an advantage on the ground. I believe WKU needs to stretch out the Auburn defense through the air to loosen up the run game. If WKU could throw for 300+ yards, doesn’t that feel like a recipe for success? Play your game, and don’t cater to your opponent.
Get More Sacks Than Auburn
It’s tough playing an SEC opponent. Is it realistic to ask for no sacks? This offensive line could do it, even with the starting left tackle out for the season. They didn’t miss a beat without Mark Goode the past several games. But Auburn also has a very good pass rush, a seemingly very good control of the line of scrimmage. Their main issue is they seem to have a lack of playmakers on the back end of the defense. With only three interceptions forced all year, Auburn is incredibly unlikely to pick it off. If you can control the line of scrimmage, Austin Reed should be able to figure out how to move the ball down the field against this defense.
Special Teams Needs to Shine
Western has some real athletes. The Tops have good specialists, but sometimes they don’t show up all at once. If WKU wants to win what is likely to be a close game, the Western special teams unit needs to take care of the football and put the offense and defense in the best positions they possibly can. WKU will probably have a chance to return some kickoffs, as Auburn’s kickoff specialist, Anders Carlsson, is only averaging 55 yards per kickoff, meaning for whatever reason, he’s only kicking it to the ten yard line on average.
Prediction
As much as you’d like to see WKU mop the floor with Auburn, this is an SEC opponent, folks. This will almost certainly not be an easy task. This isn’t Joker Phillips’ UK teams, or a Vanderbilt that couldn’t find a way to score. This is a late season opportunity against a team that should be fully engaged in trying to salvage their season. Auburn has overachieved, winning a few games maybe they shouldn’t have. They looked a complete mess early in the season and many around the country were circling this game a win for the Group of Five.
However, Auburn has steadily gotten healthier, figured out how to use the people they do have on offense and defense, and they are a much better team than they seemed in September. They are 4-6, so that suggests perhaps in the SEC, they’re getting slaughtered. They have two SEC wins, and of their six losses, only two came by more than two possessions. The latest of those two was an early October affair against Georgia on the road, where they fell 42-10, frankly a respectable performance against the now consensus number one team in the land.
So what point am I making here? I expect this to be a real opportunity for WKU, but I think it’s going to take an excellent performance. WKU can’t come out and screw up much of anything. Could I see an opportunity for WKU to run away with this? Maybe? If the offense really clicks, Auburn’s offense barely scores three touchdowns per game. That’s not remotely intimidating. However, Auburn’s offense isn’t meant to score much. They control the football and the clock. Since Robby Ashford has taken over as the clear QB1, Auburn is much better with the football. We can give him a hard time for only throwing six touchdowns, but what’s way more important is he has only thrown seven interceptions the entire season. That’s a really good game manager in the SEC.
I believe in the Tops, but I just think this is a team that should be motivated and a team that I would assume sees opportunity to overcome.
WKU is not as motivated as possible. There’s no deep incentive. Sure, they’ll be wanting to take down the big dog. But there’s no high ranking, there’s no serious bowl implications, although beating Auburn would virtually guarantee a bowl. WKU could lose this game, beat FAU, and potentially play in the conference championship game.
Don’t get me wrong. I don’t think Western will come out flat.
I just think two things:
This is a bad matchup for WKU. Big time running game that may cause the Tops problems. One of WKU’s strengths, turnovers, could be neutralized if Auburn protects the football on the ground. Defensively, Auburn allows the run but stops the pass. WKU loves to pass. WKU’s response to teams that have this tendency has been to run the ball more. That is very conservative and may work against smaller teams, but can you smashmouth an SEC team? I think you need to go for it and see if you can overcome their tendencies.
Auburn should be motivated. It’s Senior Day. It’s survival mode. Cadillac Williams has them ten levels of fired up. They just beat Texas A&M. Two wins and they go bowling. This whole grind of a year could end up being worth it if they just win these last two. Wouldn’t you be motivated? After a couple of years of crap, if at the end of it, you end up on a high, why would you not shoot for that?
So sadly, I hate to burst the Topper bubble here, but I do see Auburn winning most of the time in this situation. I think Western could do it, but the Tops need to force some turnovers and stop the run. Both of those are monumental tasks against Auburn, who runs the ball and doesn’t turn it over.
Please, for the love of God, prove me wrong. I would love to be. But I see Auburn taking down the Tops, 27-24.