WKU Football: Keys to Victory Against Arkansas

Western Kentucky’s past two games have certainly left skid marks.

Western Kentucky’s past two games have certainly left skid marks.

Are they left on the road to a good turnaround season for Tyson Helton in year one, or are they in the drawers of a season that turned out to be disappointing after a promising 5–2 start?

That remains to be seen, but a massive feather could be a road SEC victory that confirms bowl eligibility.

The Hilltoppers draw the Arkansas Razorbacks in Fayetteville this week for game number ten of the 2019 season.

Arkansas (2–7, 0–6 SEC) has been decent to good at times and been awful in others.

Western Kentucky (5–4, 4–2 C-USA) has really been the same way.

Arkansas is an SEC opponent temporarily used to losing. However, they do have talent, size, and in some ways depth of an SEC program.

So what are the keys to victory against Arkansas?

Keys to Victory

Speed vs. Size

This is simple. WKU has pretty good size, but they don’t necessarily have size across the board. Arkansas has some big ole boys up front on both sides of the ball, they boast size at every position, and like was said in the introduction, they have depth in size at each one of their positions. Certainly no position is undersized. With girth comes liabilities, though, like being able to get out to blocks, catching edge rushers, and breaking away from smaller defenders in the passing game.

Who wins the battle between speed and size? WKU has some really good athletes. One of Arkansas’ issues is a lack of elite SEC athleticism. Arkansas has the bodies, but has not seemed to capitalize on the talent in the past few seasons, really struggling to handle Group of Five competition on a regular basis. WKU also has a history of using its skill to defeat lower level SEC squads in Kentucky and Vanderbilt in recent memory.

Win the Turnover Battle

Sure, Arkansas turns the ball over. Sure, this is supposed to be a coin flip. Exactly. This is a coin flip partly because Arkansas turns the ball over twice a game. If WKU can’t turn over the Razorbacks, they will have to rely on simply being better than Arkansas. With the aforementioned size issue, that’s concerning that you now have to overcome a size disadvantage in combination with not winning the field position battle by creating opportunities for yourself. This is also a concern because WKU’s last two games have been terrible in the turnover department, spotting opponents several opportunities in each game. Without turnovers forced, the Tops need to be perfect Saturday. That’s an uncomfortable command.

Ty Storey Needs to Come Back With a Vengeance

In whatever form this takes, Storey needs to look good against his old team. Now, does that take place in tough runs in the running game? Maybe. Does it take place in a 400 yard passing performance? I sure hope so. However, what is a realistic goal? Let’s say over 60 percent passing, 200 yards, and some crucial first down runs. He’s had games with 70 percent or better. Great. Make Arkansas wish they had not run off Ty Storey.

Shut Down the Running Backs

Honestly, Arkansas’ offense hinges on its star running back, Rakeem Boyd. He is 180 yards from 1,000, so if he gets there by the end of the game, WKU just got blown out. If WKU can keep him under 100, how does Arkansas beat WKU? I like that proposition. No Arkansas receiver has reached 400 yards through nine games. No other Razorback rusher gets more than 30 yards per game. Devwah Whaley is a competent backup averaging 4.3 yards per carry. Both are dangerous and combined earn over 120 yards per game and get a touchdown a game. They will be a factor. How big of an impact will they have? Keep them near 100 total and that’s a win 80 percent of the time for the Tops.

Win Special Teams and Hidden Yardage

Arkansas is an abnormally poor SEC punting team. With an SEC defense against a really good Group of Five team, punting is going to come into play. So will field goals. Arkansas has a very good field kicker, while WKU’s Cory Munson has struggled at times but shows signs of brilliance, as well. Which Munson shows up? WKU’s return game has picked up of late but has not been spectacular. Neither is the Arkansas return game. However, the Razorbacks have three random fumble return touchdowns, strangely enough. That’s all hidden yardage, and WKU has been susceptible to fumble returns this season.

Let’s throw in third and fourth down conversions and penalties, as well. Much like WKU, Arkansas is great at avoiding penalties. Does one team lose its discipline and get some personal fouls? Does a major player get called for targeting? Also, Arkansas’ offense and defense are not great on third down. Can WKU take advantage there? Third and fourth down always matter against SEC opponents, because those are the downs you have to win against talented teams. Sometimes first and second aren’t enough to get it done against bigger and stronger opponents.

Prediction

I’m back and forth on this one. I worry about the size, because one of WKU’s usual strengths is dominating the line of scrimmage. When that is neutralized, Western is in trouble (see Louisville and Marshall). However, what does Arkansas actually do with its size? Honestly, other than the running game offensively, not much. Arkansas struggles to pass, turning the ball over more than twice a game despite only giving up a sack and a half per game (13 total). Defensively, Arkansas gets two sacks a game, suggesting a decent pass rush, but also gives up over 200 yards on the ground and nearly 450 yards per game.

Keep in mind the competition they face week and week out, but then again, giving up 35 a game and giving up less than 30 only twice in nine games is a consistent issue. Also, the offense barely scores 20 per game, so neither defense nor offense is consistent. That’s what is so difficult about predicting this game. Arkansas has had moments, like defeating Colorado State (and Kyle Neaves) and scoring 55 while doing it. They’ve played well defensively against Kentucky and competed against Texas A & M and Ole Miss. Ultimately, which Arkansas team shows up? Also, which WKU team shows up to combat them?

If both teams play their absolute best, maybe Arkansas wins most of them. If WKU plays out of its mind, it could beat Arkansas on any given night. If WKU plays awful, forget it. If Arkansas is average, WKU will need an above average performance to beat the Razorbacks, especially on the road.

My gut says WKU is on equal footing with Arkansas. I believe WKU will get off the schneid and win this ball game. A few things have to go right, but I believe most of it is within WKU’s ability to control. WKU specializes in stopping the run (besides FAU). WKU specializes in stopping a good pass rush. WKU generally wins the special forces battle. I have WKU winning in overtime, Western Kentucky 27-Arkansas 24. Ty Storey QB draws on third down to squirt into the end zone after Western’s defense holds Arkansas to a field goal in the first overtime.