WKU Football: Keys to Victory Against Army
I said in my “Grades” article post-UT-Martin that the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will be fighting against God and country on September 11…
I said in my “Grades” article post-UT-Martin that the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will be fighting against God and country on September 11 against Army.
Imagine the amount of people hoping the Black Knights win on the 20th anniversary of 9/11. WKU fans (and maybe other C-USA fans) will literally be the only people likely to be pulling for WKU.
What an honor, frankly, for the Tops of all schools to be chosen to play on such a momentous occasion in front of the world! Hopefully those in and out of the program take a moment to reflect on 9/11 and how it felt on that day. Maybe it would bring us a little closer together.
That being said, with everything attached to the event, it’s a football game. And it’s an interesting match-up featuring the apparently gunslinging Hilltoppers with a questionable running game vs. the triple-option dominant Black Knights with a “only throw it as a trick or when desperate” mentality towards airing the football out.
Army is back to looking more like its tradition. Decades ago, before the modern era of college football, Army was a national power. In more recent memory, only a few years ago, Army was a doormat and would only win against an FCS team or a service academy and maybe randomly upset a weak Group of Five member. Now, under Head Coach Jeff Monken’s eight year tutelage, they’re a legitimate opponent that will strengthen the schedule of anyone they play. And because of style of play, they can give anyone a game. They also boast a defense that gave up less than 15 points per game last season.
WKU has been an up-and-down program, basically a function of their quarterback situation since joining the FBS fully in 2009. Last season was a rough experiment with Power 5 grad transfer Tyrell Pigrome — better known as “Piggy T” — and a young, inexperienced Kevaris Thomas battling for playing time. WKU didn’t even average 20 points per game OR 300 yards of offense. WKU was lucky to have a defense congeal late and help claw its way to a 5–7 final record after a 2–6 start.
2021 already seems different. Enter Bailey Zappe, all-everything FCS quarterback transfer from Houston Baptist. With him comes an offensive coordinator and several others from the same program. WKU already hung the most points in a single game in 5 seasons against UT-Martin. But the defense also gave up nearly 400 yards in the 59–21 blowout.
So there are a lot of interesting factors in this game with completely conflicting styles. So how does WKU come out on top?
Keys to Victory
Play Assignment Football
This is the premier ingredient to beating a triple option. The first thing you can’t do on each play is blow an assignment. It doesn’t matter if you blast into the backfield and win your one-on-one matchup in the trenches. If you miss the tackle or lose gap soundness, Army takes off into the secondary. The triple option is dangerous because it isolates certain players on each play and if they don’t make it, it could be a touchdown.
Also, along with assignment football would be just doing your job. No extra-curricular. No stupid penalties. WKU needs to be disciplined, because Army most likely will be. Just do your job, Tops.
Plug the Middle
This will be interesting to see how Defensive Coordinator Maurice Crum strategizes. But WKU has done pretty well since 2013 against the service academies. In fact, they’re undefeated. But if he takes the Clayton White strategy, he’s plugging the middle and using DeAngelo Malone as an outside linebacker that follows the QB and the most obvious pitch direction. He’ll probably keep his four man front but basically have Juwuan Jones’ girth as a hybrid DE/DT. Then you have your OLB’s manning the pitch man on each side. My guess is WKU will look more like a 3–4 or multiple type of defense than a 4–2–5. The more linebackers, the better.
But a huge factor — and I said this after last game — will be the defensive tackles. If you want to stop the triple option, stop the fullback. That’s the number one choice in that offense. Plug it up and let’s take our chances between the quarterback and the pitch man. Here’s the issue: After Jeremy Darvin, who is the next option for production at defensive tackle? The Tops need somebody else to stand in there and be annoying at the point of attack.
The problem: Army has some HUGE fullbacks that will be extremely difficult to bring down. Army seems to run the dive quite often this season if the GSU game is any indication. The Tops MUST be productive in the middle.
Keep the Time of Possession Loss Reasonable
Look at that! That’s what it’s like to play Army if Army is clicking and you’re not. Army UTTERLY DOMINATED Georgia State 43–10. Georgia State beat WKU in the Lending Tree Bowl the day after Christmas last year by 18. Hopefully WKU is better than last season, or let’s just say it: This could be ugly.
Definitely concerning with an Army offense is getting the ball. This is why the running game is important. If the Tops can run the ball, it lets the defense rest and keeps Army’s “four yards and a cloud of dust” style from bludgeoning the Topper front to death.
What I’m concerned about is the Tops not holding the ball for much more than 20 of the 60 minutes. WKU lost Time of Possession to UT-Martin by a ton. Imagine what it would mean to not get and keep the ball for any significant time. Army only got the ball ten times against GSU. They scored eight. WKU scored ten times against UT-Martin on 13 opportunities. In order to repeat that performance against Army, the Tops will likely need to score on virtually every possession. Now they don’t need that type of performance, I don’t think. But something has to give here. Dear Old Western needs some stops, or it could be a long night.
Light It Up-Score 20 or More
Wanna know a good way to overcome the triple option? Get a lead and keep it. Army’s offense really relies on rhythm. They also rely on attrition. Everything in the triple option is dangerous when they’re up a couple of touchdowns. They can pass randomly. They can gash you with a misdirection. They can bleed you to death with a four yard gain.
When you’re up, you can play more traditional defense. They’re going to have to pass some. You’re not going to sell out on the option or worry about a five or six yard gain. If you want to run triple option down two scores in the second half, bring it on. A staggering stat here: Army is 3–9 since 2019 when giving up 20 or more.
Here’s the problem: Army’s defense is REALLY good. Like first in the country good last year. They’ve got some really good players. They have a 6’7” defensive end that had three sacks against Georgia State. So scoring 30 or more will be a really tall task for the Tops. But if they do, or even if they score well into the 20s, a seven minute touchdown drive by Army is so much less of a problem.
Win the Special Teams Battle
This wasn’t on my radar before watching, but Army had three muffed punts, two of which were recovered by Georgia State and called back because of holding penalties by GSU, both of which happened in a row on fourth down on the same drive. So those fumbles don’t show up when looking at the GSU stats and information. The Cadets also missed an extra point, and they also went for two and missed it later in the game. These are all special teams blunders from one game. From a Topper perspective, hopefully Army will screw something up in the third phase and the Tops can hang around and win against a really good opponent.
WKU is probably going to be considered a solid underdog. How do you keep it close, especially against a team that probably will hold you down offensively and can also stall a few drives themselves? Field position. Hitting field goals. Not kicking it out of bounds. Momentum plays in the kicking game. Little stuff is going to tip the game one way or another.
More Front Seven Tackles Than DBs
Watch who is making the plays for the Tops. Look at UT-Martin. Well over half of the plays (big and small) were made by the back five players. What happened? UT-Martin rushed for 200+ yards. If safeties and cornerbacks are making the plays, Army just gained five or more yards. If the defensive line or linebackers make the play, there’s almost no way that play was made past six or seven yards down the field. The whole key against the triple option is to make the triple option be successful on a long drive, ironically enough. The idea is that they’ll screw up or lose space in the red zone and maybe kick a field goal instead of score a touchdown. Bend but don’t break, so to speak.
Prediction
I’m honestly going back and forth, thinking about the myriad ways this game could go. I think about how great WKU’s offense looked last Thursday against UT-Martin. Bailey Zappe threw 80 percent with seven TDs. That’s nothing to sneeze at. I think it’s obvious if WKU scores in the 40s or 50s, they’ll probably win. In fact, in the last two years, teams that score 20 or more against Army are 9–3. So what is the likelihood WKU gets to 20 against Army? One would think surely the Tops find the promised land three times. Right?
But the other issue is WKU’s defense. Specifically, run stopping and also plugging up the middle to stop the option concerns me. Depth at defensive tackle is a problem when you face a 6’ 260 fullback that can run and move. He’ll break a tackle like a contestant on Temptation Island will break a promise.
However, WKU has traditionally fared well against Army and Navy. WKU is 3–0 since 2013 against Army and is 2–2 against Navy, which has been the better program until very recently.
I believe former Defensive Coordinator Nick Holt laid out an incredible plan of attack against service academies for WKU, going 2–0 in 2013, and the Tops haven’t looked back. Since 2013, WKU hasn’t lost to either school.
Again, it’s an interesting chess match, because this is the best team WKU has faced in seven match-ups against a triple-option attack. But how good is WKU? We know Army is a top 35 caliber team in the country and absolutely deserves that hype. WKU looks like a top 25 caliber offense for sure, but the defense looked pedestrian first time out. So really, all that needs to happen is the defense needs to step into what many believed was the more obviously able unit heading into the season.
Ok here’s what I think is going to tilt this match-up besides just a huge outpouring from the offense. Again, obviously if the offense scores 40, Army’s probably not winning. But, my friends, if it’s a more normal Army type of game where Army plays well, the defense is really good, and the option is efficient, I believe Will Ignont and Jeremy Darvin are the ones to watch defensively.
I think Malone is going to be busy running around like a madman putting out fires. I think Juwuan Jones is going to struggle to produce, but if he does, that’s a huge bonus. I think Darvin is a huge key, because he’s the guy that is known to be very good and can plug up that middle and slow down the dive. Come to think of it, Ignont should be athletic enough to either be the rover that I’ve been talking about Malone being, which would allow DeAngelo to play more naturally on the end, or Ignont should be elite enough to overcome inevitable mistakes and make some drive-busting or game-saving plays on the edge of the option.
Does WKU employ Antwon Kincade in more of a nickel type of role as a hybrid linebacker/DB where he will likely be more involved in stopping the run? Or will he remain deeper in the field and put out major fires and paying attention for the inevitable pass once every 20 plays?
Alright I’ve talked myself into it. As I left the glory of Thursday’s offensive display against UT-Martin, I felt the Tops were invincible. After watching Army, I felt the Tops were in deep trouble. After breaking it down, I was feeling ok. Then I came across the stat about Army giving up 20 points.
And I’m wondering to myself…are the Tops REALLY not going to score 20 points? It doesn’t seem like that much, but Army gave up 14.8 points-per-game last season. Literally, they needed two touchdowns and a field goal and they were probably going to win. So it’s something to consider.
But still, this WKU offense is probably going to average at least 35 a game, including this game and games against IU and Michigan State. They’ll still average that much. I firmly believe that.
I believe Zappe and the transfer boys make it happen. I believe they’re too much for most teams, and the elite talent offensively is going to overcome any issues defensively. I also think the defense will come in determined to prove themselves after being labeled “the problem” for this version of the Tops the last nine days. I think the defensive will have an impressive performance, and frankly I think when Army loses, they lose handily. And I think WKU’s Special Teams are going to be really good this game.
I think the Tops go up to West Point on 9/11 and I think they’re maybe going to relish the bad guy role a little bit. I think they take care of business and win by a couple of scores, Western Kentucky 31-Army 19.