WKU Football: Keys to Victory Against Charlotte
If square-wheeled carts roll, Western Kentucky football is rolling. It may not be “pretty” or even “modern-day” football, but WKU has won…
If square-wheeled carts roll, Western Kentucky football is rolling. It may not be “pretty” or even “modern-day” football, but WKU has won three games in a row, with the defense looking more impressive with each passing game. WKU’s style is so archaic that it really is like they’re trying to come up with the wheel offensively.
After losing to Central Arkansas to open the season, WKU has gotten down to business, only losing to Louisville, a Power Five team that is now in with a great chance to make a bowl game at 4–2 overall. Apparently losing by 17 to them is not so bad.
Western Kentucky (4–2, 3–0 C-USA) sits atop the East Division of Conference USA, a half-game ahead of everyone else in the win column. In a nice, softer area of the conference schedule for WKU, the Tops drew Old Dominion two games ago, took a break against Army, and now get to face Charlotte, a perennial bottom feeder.
Charlotte (2–4, 0–2 C-USA) is much improved offensively, but the defense still lacks championship quality. With the 49ers seeing their second conference loss come at the hands of FIU last week, will they fold up their tents and quit on the season? Or will they get desperate and look at each game from here on out as a must-win?
I believe Coach Will Healy (formerly of Austin Peay) is doing a heck of a job, and he will get that program moving in the right direction quite soon. However, now that they have lost two of their conference games and looking at the schedule ahead, Charlotte could easily be 2–7 before the next good chance to win. Maybe their offense will help them pull off an upset.
I have had the Charlotte game circled for a while. Charlotte is a sneaky bad match-up for WKU. WKU struggles to score, and Charlotte lights up the scoreboard. Charlotte can’t stop anyone, but can WKU keep itself from messing up its own chances and finish drives? Can the WKU defense slow Charlotte down enough for the offense to score points? These things really concern me.
I’m antsy for this one, so let’s look at some Keys for this match-up against the high-powered 49ers of Charlotte.
Keys to Victory
Win the Red Zone Both Ways
First of all, I will chug my baby’s formula and milk on video if the Tops only need nine points in this game. Honestly, I’m scared of saying that, because the defense is so good. However, Western will need some points on Saturday at The Houch. Book it (and I really will chug baby milk if they don’t). Charlotte has played six games and allowed 24 red zone scores on 28 chances. That means their opponents score four times per game once they get there and only miss out less than once a game. It stands to reason WKU needs to maintain that pace. Western is unlikely to score from outside of the red zone. They must do well when they have opportunities.
Defensively, WKU’s defense is stingy deep in its own territory. The Tops only allow touchdowns half of the time and allow a score at all about 2/3 of the time. That is a pretty good setup for success there: Don’t allow them to move the ball and don’t let them score once they do. WKU needs to continue that trend. Charlotte relies on mostly a running spread option type of attack. This is a really good version of Old Dominion’s offensive style. That usually means the red zone is crucial, because they, too, will grind you down slowly on the ground with running back Benny Lemay. This is an area WKU should win. If not, that’s trouble for the Tops.
Out-Trench Them
Charlotte actually has some good guys up front on both sides. They have produced nearly three sacks a game (six more than WKU) and have only given up 11 sacks offensively (four more than WKU). If Charlotte could win the line of scrimmage, that would absolutely put WKU at a massive disadvantage. That would force WKU to win with skill, and that is not a position the Tops want to be in. That is not their strength. If WKU were to win or stay even with Charlotte in this area, it does feel like an easy WKU win would follow. However, anytime there is difficulty up front, it opens up doors for issues. WKU must continue to be dominant up front.
Don’t Fall for the Chippiness of Charlotte
WKU is generally very disciplined, but Charlotte clearly draws penalties by being annoying to its opponents and edgy. Charlotte commits more penalties than the Tops, but interestingly, Charlotte’s opponents commit over 70 yards worth of penalties each game, about 15 yards more than Charlotte commits. This seems like something that may not be a big deal, but I’m telling you, if Charlotte is undisciplined, they can probably just forget winning. However, if WKU falls into their trap and Charlotte minimizes the flags, Charlotte could beat WKU by outscoring them and taking WKU out of its game. Penalties, especially offensively, could completely derail WKU drives. WKU does not usually show enough firepower to overcome penalties, especially if they’re worth ten or 15 yards.
Win the Turnover Battle
Charlotte is -5 in turnovers this season. WKU is -3. However, Ty Storey has come in after Steven Duncan’s and bedazzled in this area, really minimizing his mistakes and allowing the WKU defense to win the ball games for the Tops. It’s a pretty combination for the Hilltoppers. Charlotte is not used to forcing many turnovers this year, perhaps not much different than the Tops. This is not the game to start handing footballs to the other team for fun. With Charlotte’s main issue being accurate in the passing game, spy the quarterback and make him work for everything he gets. If you get in his face, he is extremely likely to make a mistake.
Go Crazy on the Ground
Charlotte has difficulty stopping ground attacks (231.8 yards per game), so with WKU boasting a really good running back and a budding dual threat under center, who are the 49ers going to slow down? Gaej Walker is a certified man. Storey is now warming up his scrambling legs a little bit. Receivers are getting in the running game some. Charlotte gives up 232 yards rushing per game. They only give up 180 in the air. Western should have a field day running the football, but if they don’t, that spells issues for the offense. If WKU can’t run the ball effectively, it forces WKU’s receivers and tight ends to score enough, or it requires the defense to put out yet another stellar performance. The defense is great, but asking them to record four straight games under 13 points allowed is just grossly demanding. If they do, great. WKU almost certainly wins if that happens. If they don’t, the offense needs to really step up and make it happen for the Tops.
Prediction
I am done doubting the Tops officially and unofficially. When they’re supposed to win, I will trust them to until they don’t. When they’re slight underdogs, like they might be against someone like FAU, I might pick them anyway. Sure, Charlotte could win this. Yes, in my opinion, Charlotte is the scariest Conference USA East match-up besides FAU remaining for WKU. However, I think the Hilltoppers should absolutely win this game. Charlotte has some ability. They have some good line play. They can run the ball. They have a good young coach that they love to play for. However, they struggle passing and they struggle giving up yardage defensively and on special teams.
I believe Charlotte has a depth and youth issue, which explains the defensive woes, as well as special teams issues. Charlotte is a program with a positive trajectory, despite what projects to be them going backwards in the win column from a year ago. Charlotte finished 5–7 last year, but Conference USA has improved greatly from last season. There are very few teams that are completely inept in C-USA this year, and the entire East is capable of winning against anyone in the conference. I see Charlotte winning three to five total games in 2019.
Western Kentucky is another solid team but is not without deficiencies. In fact, WKU has several masked by its incredible defense. If WKU falters defensively, it could spell disaster for the Tops. If WKU’s offensive struggles cause just enough of an issue, a good offensive team (or a team that can score in the 20s) like Charlotte could score enough to beat WKU.
I am nervous about this game, but I have WKU winning in an offensive explosion. I believe this Charlotte defense is going to get shredded left and right by WKU, and I believe Western will finally put its offense together and flirt with a 500-yard output. If not 500 yards, I say WKU scores in bunches. Let’s say WKU finally puts its offense together and the Tops win big: WKU 37-Charlotte 17.