WKU Football: Keys to Victory Against Florida Atlantic
Western Kentucky hit its first speed bump since the middle of September Saturday in Huntington, West Virginia.
Western Kentucky hit its first speed bump since the middle of September Saturday in Huntington, West Virginia.
The Marshall Thundering Herd took advantage of WKU’s two greatest weaknesses: Untimely turnovers and a lack of explosive offense.
Instead of this week’s game being in control of the East Division, now both FAU and WKU are fighting to stay alive in what seems an inevitable fight to a 7–1 conference record because of losses to Marshall by both teams.
FAU (5–3, 3–1 C-USA) is the scariest match-up in all of Conference USA for the Tops (5–3, 4–1 C-USA) in my opinion. I’ve been saying it all year.
Let’s see what the keys are to victory Saturday afternoon at the Houch.
Keys to Victory
Keep the Owls Under 400 Yards
WKU’s defense is awesome, but FAU’s offense is really good. The running game is not so great, and the running backs are beat up (and quarterback Chris Robison left due to injury last week). For the very first time this season, WKU faces a true pocket passer, assuming he is good to go. He is not a threat to run. His backup is, however, so if Robison is not good to go, pick Western in an easy win.
The bottom line here is to find a way to keep the Owls under 400 yards and that’s a really good sign for WKU. It probably means they don’t score more than 30 points, which keeps WKU in the game. Giving up way less than 400 yards means WKU wins easily. Giving up way more than that means WKU better score 40 and hope it has the ball last. That is not the game WKU wants to play.
Destroy the Offensive Line
This is a huge (and a rare) weakness for FAU. Robison is a standing target. He’s been sacked 23 times. If WKU can’t beat up a below-average offensive line, there’s almost no way they win this game. Sorry, but WKU has few obvious advantages in this match-up (which is why I hate it), so to me, this is your difference in the game.
Can WKU get to Chris Robison or his backup (if he doesn’t play)? Can WKU stop a run game that is on its fourth or fifth string tailback? This is a must-win area for WKU, regardless of skill position starters.
Minimize Bad Plays; Make Good Ones
This may be kind of a “duh” here, but let me explain: FAU uses a “bend-but-don’t-break” 3–3–5 defense this season. It works for them against most conference opponents. WKU needs to move the football. Minimize the stupid plays, penalties, and missed assignments. I think this key should also include penalties. FAU plays a little less disciplined game, racking up nearly 70 yards per game in penalties. WKU plays really clean and does not get into many extra-curriculars, forcing its opponents to nearly 60 yards while barely getting 40 yards per game. Western has had several games with only a few penalties committed.
Second, find a few explosive plays and get a score or two on a long play outside of the red zone. You are going to need points on most drives to beat FAU. Execution is huge in this particular match-up. If Lucky Jackson does not continue his trend of insane, steady production of late, who steps up in his place? Surely he comes back to Earth at some point. If it’s against FAU, can Sloan, Pearson, Simon, or Jernighan get loose for some big plays in the passing game? Can Gaej Walker bust a few on the ground? Big plays hurt FAU more than lots of consistent yards.
Hold FAU to Field Goals
The Owls are incredible in the red zone (only one empty trip all season). If WKU can hold FAU to a field goal or less, that’s huge. To drive home the point, five touchdowns puts the score at 35. That’s almost impossible for WKU to overcome. Five field goals puts the total at 15. That’s the difference between an abysmal defense and a great one. Nothing is easy. Just make life difficult. If the Owls win a battle, so what? Move on, do your job, and win the war. Don’t get discouraged if they convert a few of those opportunities. That’s just what they do.
Be Solid
How do you beat FAU? Play well. I know that’s rudimentary, but when you run down the stat sheet, there aren’t too many things you can point to and say, “That, that, and that are how we win this game.” They’re fairly solid everywhere. 280 yards per game passing. 135 yards rushing. Good defensive line. Good special teams. They play hard. They play conservative coverage defensively but find ways to stand tall in big moments.
With some injuries at key positions, FAU may just not have enough bodies (especially in colder weather) around to deal with going three or more deep into a certain position group, like running back and quarterback (if Robison is out). A few other positions are banged up, as well. FAU is well-coached, but they’re not overwhelming in very many areas. I say all of the time the key to a really good football team is having the least amount of deficiencies. FAU doesn’t have very many.
Prediction
Honestly, WKU has good history against FAU. Even in years of pure suck, Western has at least been in the game. Generally, WKU wins. Of late, Lane Kiffin is a hurdle the Tops are yet to overcome, but this year at home with the Owls’ wings in a sling is certainly an opportunity WKU should not squander. I could see this game going a myriad ways, depending on injuries, turnovers, and execution. If WKU can hold FAU down defensively, I believe the Tops would win. FAU is going to surrender some yards. Good for them if they don’t out of the blue, but they give up nearly 400 yards per game. Western gives up barely 300.
Let’s keep in mind this game is massive for the outcome of the East. Sure, Marshall is in the driver’s seat. Honestly, though is Marshall really going to take it to all four of its remaining opponents? They have deficiencies, and they’ve been exposed several times this year. WKU and FAU are also flawed, so the result of these head-to-head match-ups will determine the East to a great degree. The loser of this game is virtually eliminated from title contention. The other is a firm alternative for Marshall if the Herd misstep. This will be an intense battle. How do both teams handle the pressure of a tight affair?
That being said, I see WKU’s discipline, abilities up front on both sides of the ball, and overall defense against a banged-up offense being the ultimate factor in who wins this game. If FAU was healthy, I 100 percent would pick FAU. I believe when 100 percent, FAU is generally the better team, and more importantly to me, matches up better to most of WKU’s strengths and weaknesses. This game is dangerous, and FAU has weapons. In no way am I confident in my pick, but I’ve got WKU winning at home in the “cold”. Your final score: Western Kentucky 28–Florida Atlantic 20.