WKU Football: Keys to Victory against Louisville
Well, besides what could shape up to be a legendary battle at the end of the season against Middle Tennessee, this is the game I am most…
Well, besides what could shape up to be a legendary battle at the end of the season against Middle Tennessee, this is the game I am most naturally interested in coming into the season.
It’s an in-state rivalry in a cool city in a stadium the Tops have had some success in before.
During Bobby Petrino’s lone year as head coach at WKU, the Tops trounced UK at L.P. Field (now Nissan Stadium) in Nashville.
Now the Tops get a “home game” with Louisville. Because WKU cannot accommodate enough people in L.T. Smith Stadium, most Power Five schools, especially close ones, want to play in front of larger crowds. The excuse is there, anyway. The real reason? They’re chicken.
Despite an eventual 3–9 season, WKU had a double-digit lead against Louisville last season before folding in the second half. Louisville finished the season at 2–10, and Bobby Petrino (ironically enough) was sent packing before the Tops could exact revenge on him for leaving after one season.
Louisville seems to be much improved, but so is WKU. Louisville is favored (depending on the outlet) by 9.5 points. That means most people believe Louisville will win, but WKU could certainly make it interesting.
What does WKU need to do pull the upset?
Keys to Trump the Cards
Make Jawon Pass…Pass
First of all, what a name for a quarterback! Unfortunately for him, that’s not his strong suit. He is an incredible running quarterback, and don’t get me wrong: He can sling it. But anyone that watches him knows he can be inconsistent, and they also know he is electric when he gets to scramble in the open field.
I watched the Cards against Notre Dame, and of course, the week before you play them, you pay attention to their previous game (42–0 over EKU). Pass singlehandedly tore open Notre Dame’s defense for a while simply by gashing them on passing downs with big plays on scrambles.
To make a long story longer, Louisville is only averaging 177 yards passing in its first two games. Pass has thrown for 136 yards per game but does have four touchdowns to only one interception. He averages 52 on the ground himself. Load up on the run game, spy the QB, and force him to stand and deliver. If he beats you, he beats you.
WKU Defensive Line Must Hold Its Own Against UofL D-Line
That’s right. For the first time this year, WKU faces a defensive line that can REALLY blow up the line of scrimmage. Even against Notre Dame, Louisville managed three sacks. Against EKU, the Cards managed to get there five times. Secondly, if WKU’s defensive line is producing some sacks, or forces a fumble or two, that shows they’re being effective stopping Louisville’s mobile quarterback.
Win the Turnover Battle
You want to upset a (probably) more talented team? You can’t make tons of mistakes unless they make even more than you. WKU is -4 in the turnover battle. Where are pass deflections? Where are the tipped balls? Where are proven players that can force turnovers? With Steven Duncan, you can get great or terrible within a few plays of each other. He must take care of the football, and the defense has to get off the schneid and make a big play. Fortunately for WKU, Louisville is -2 in turnover margin, as well. Whoever takes care of the ball likely wins this game.
Try to Slow Down the Run
I can 100% guarantee the Tops will and should focus on stopping the run. Louisville is absolutely dynamic on the ground. They have Pass, but he’s only 52 of their 285.5-yard average. Their two running backs, Hawkins and Hall, average nearly 200 yards per game. Malik Cunningham, backup quarterback, also came in in garbage time and got 74 yards on four carries against EKU.
Regardless of who is in for Louisville, it is essential for WKU to just not get slaughtered on the ground. Give up 300 yards rushing and you might as well forget it unless you happen to match that output. Hold the Cards under 200 and you probably win the game with ease.
Give Gaej Walker Some Help
I’m concerned about some depth at tight end and running back due to injury questions. Quinton Baker is off the team and Jakairi Moses was injured against FIU. Garland LaFrance came in at running back for a couple of plays, but Gaej Walker basically stayed out there the entire game. That’s a stud performance, but he has to have help.
Steven Duncan did not run the ball against FIU. Joshua Samuel and Keyshawn McClendon did not play against FIU. Those guys are capable. Lean on them, even if you view them as placeholders for 15 or 20 snaps a game. Want to have enough in the tank at the end? Use your depth. Louisville will have enough bodies at the end of the game. Will WKU?
Prediction
Again, I see ways for WKU to win this, but I see a lot more ways for Louisville. Louisville is much better than last season, and generally, when a Power Five gets better, it makes it almost impossible to keep pace when you’re in the Group of Five.
I’m all about a Topper win, and I am more than willing to consider an upset pick. That being said, I see depth issues at running back, tight end, receiver, defensive line, and linebacker. That’s too much. There are some good players in those positions, but who are their backups? If you want to beat a Power Five, you have to be able to sustain your energy late in the game.
It breaks my heart, but I have to say the Tops will fall, 24–20.